EP elections 2014

[FredLindq]

Hi!

As I have udnerstand Germany will have a 3 % threshold in the EP Elections 2014.

This will imply that the extreme right will fail to get any sets in Germany, as might the eurosceptic AFD and The Pirates. My guess is that the AFD might get more than 3%.

Does anyone know if italy will keep its 4 %???

[FredLindq]

A 4 % treshold in Italy would imply that only six parties migh get seats. Were three off them ar close to the threshold (SC, SEL and LN).
PD 28%
PDL 26%
M5 17%
SC (Monti) 6%
SEL 5%
LN  5%

About France. Will they keep their electoral districts i.e. regions? What has this implied when the seats has been distributed, more seats to larger parties?

[FredLindq]

As I understand MPF got less than 5% nationally but still got a seat in 2009. Is it a 5% threshold per region?

I guess that this will help UMP, FN and PS.

Is it the same in the UK i.e. regional elctoral districts which "helps" larger partiets getting more seats?

[FredLindq]

Any news on which grpup NVA (Belgium), Ol (Slovakia), AFD (Germany), TS (Austria) might join? The ECR or even the EFD?

What about a new extreme right group, which parties might join it?

[FredLindq]

Why would not Stronach and Hans Peter Martin not stand?

[FredLindq]

Sounds strange, but anyway...

Any news about alliances in Italy (many small parties will fail to cross 4%) and Spain between regional parties?

[FredLindq]

Ok some info and predictions from Sweden

My last ”Poll off Polls” (an average of the four major opinion polls in Sweden) gives this numbers:
The Alliance
Moderaterna (M, liberal-conservative, EPP) 27,0 %
Folkpartiet (FP, liberal, ALDE) 5,9 %
Centerpartiet (C, liberal, former agrarian, ALDE) 3,8 %
Kristdemokraterna (KD, Christdemocratic, EPP) 4,0 %

The Red-Green Bloc
Socialdemokraterna (S, Socialdemocrats, S&D) 33,0 %
Vänsterpartiet (V, Socialist, far left EUL or NGL) 6,6 %
Mijöpartiet (MP, Green party, Green-EFA) 10,3 %

Others
Sverigedemokraterna (SD, nationalist far right) 8,4 %
Others 1,1 %

However the turnout is much lower (45,5 % in 2009) than in the national elections (82,1 % in 2010). The social democrats has got approximately 10% less than in the national polls in the EP-elections, depending if another party pops up like Junilistan (EU skeptical IND/DEM) in 2004 and Piratpartiet (pirates, green) in 2009. Normally it looses 5% to MP and 2% to V i.e. to the left and green EU-skeptical parties.

Moderaterna also tend to do worse than in the national polls. In 1999 (together with Kristdemokraterna) and 2009 it lost approximately 8% to Folkpartiet i.e. to the pro-EU liberals due to a strong candidate (MaritPaulsen). I might loose more if another party pups up.

The big question is if another party pops up like Junilistan 14,5 % in 2004 and Piratpartiet 7,1 % in 2009. If so the Moderaterna and Folkpartiet will contribute to less than half off it votes and Socialdemokraterna to more than half of it votes. Will the third party be Sverigedmokraterna which is already polling 8 %, will they get even more support than in then national polls? Or will it be another party like a comeback off Junilistan or Piratpartiet? No matter what the main loser will be Socialdemokraterna and Moderaterna. 

I think we could a four sceanrios:
1 Normal
2 Normal and FP wins from M
3 A third party pops up and FP wins from M
4 SD gets more votes, a third part pops up and FP wins from M

Party   Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4
S   26% (5)   26% (5)   22% (4)   19% (4)
M   25% (5)   17% (3)   17% (3)   15% (3)
FP   6% (1)   14% (3)   13% (3)   13% (2)
MP   15,5% (3)   15,5% (3)   15,5% (3)   15,5% (3)
V   8,5% (2)   8,5% (2)   8,5% (2)   8,5% (2)
C   4% (1)   4% (1)   4% (1)   4% (1)
KD   4% (1)   4% (1)   4% (1)   4% (1)
SD   8,5% (2)   8,5% (2)   8,5% (2)   13,5% (3)
Third party      7% (1)   7% (1)
Others    2,5%   2,5%   0,5%   0,5%

[FredLindq]

As some as said hear earlier there might be a semi left group with M5, UpYD and others like the semi left radical group between 94-99. However M5 is anti EU and might find that this opion is not comspible with UpYD. And they need to find allies from many more countries. A extreme right/nationalistic group seems more possible.

[FredLindq]

The Economist were quite wrong there. I think PSOE would have a majority with IU and left regional parties or PP with centre right regional parties. So no Paella! :-) What about the alliances of regional parties in the EP. Read that CiU, PNV and CC Will cooperate again. What about the left regional parties?!

[FredLindq]

But this Poll do not consider parties like CC, Aralar, Equo, BNV and allies, Citudanos etc

[FredLindq]

We know that CC Will join CiU and PNV. But there are more options for ERC, BNG and Aralar like Equo etc And Will the Valencian regionalist switch from CiU led alliance to an ERC led?!

[FredLindq]

I predict that SEL will join EUL.

[FredLindq]

I am sure that the German AFD not will join. They have talked to  Camreeon so I think they will join ECR or possible the EFD.

The True Fins and Dansk Folkeparti might join if the EFD collapses. Same with the Lithuanian Order and Justice (TT) which you forgot.

[FredLindq]

You also forgot PRM and somewhat PPDD in Romania. The first one is to radical and latter one might join the EFD.

[FredLindq]

SNS is polling 3.5% and the threshold is 5% so I do not thinkt that they Will get a seat. ATAKA will get at least one seat but I think they are to extreme. I think that either the dansih DF, finnish Perus or the Lithuanian TT might be the seventh party in exchange for some goodies.

[FredLindq]

Because this new formation seems lika north-western project. I do not thinkt that they sant any eastern european party in the group. They seem to unstable. SD is more leftwing in many issues than DF and Perus. However it depends on EFD and if this group can survive. IF LN leaves I doubt that they Will.

[FredLindq]

A joint euroskeptic ECR+EFD group will probably not happen since it would be a suicide for Tories to sit in the same group as UKIP. Sp Perus will probably stay in the EFD if this group survives the elections and drops outs from LN.

Ataka or PRM seems to hold the key to a new extreme right gorup.

[FredLindq]

This is if SNS gets a seat. If not they Will need Ataka. Do you know if Ataka is invited?!

[FredLindq]

I noticed that both Slovenia and Lithuanian is light blue. Slovenia =SNS Lithuania TT?! What about the croatian HSP?

[FredLindq]

I think is a splinter off HSP that sits in EPP. I can report that SD is polling steady around 10% and would get two seats. They have zero now.

[FredLindq]

Sverigedemokraterna (SD) is geting nervous when their cooperation with Front National is discussed. They are givning som lame answers that they are still exemoning different parties to cooperate with and that Marine and here father are beloing to different groups in the EP. Altough both are non inscrits.

[FredLindq]

I do not understand why this would illustrare the dividing line in the ALDE? Support from German FDP, Danish Venstre and Dutch VVD would indicate a more classical liberalism i.e. more rightwing. Britains Libdems are clearly more social liberal. Rehns Keskusta is and old agrarian party. Other Nordic parties are social liberal like Danish RV and Swedish FP.

What parties migh support Verhofstadt? And what about the EDP part off the ALDE, who might they support?

[FredLindq]

Centerpartiet will support Olli. They have not Said so but I can not see any other option.

Intereating. The federealist vs non federealist views is what forced ED out off it cooperation with EPP and the formation off ECR.

Might this question split the EUL and PES?! Swedish S  (PES) and V (EUL-NGL) are non federalists but I knep many off their sister parties in Europe are.

[FredLindq]

I thinkt so too. They are more inclined to support a fellow wiking that someone that is more ideological.

[FredLindq]

Tories are in the ECR!