EP elections 2014

[Senator Cris]

A great simulation of the composition of European Parliament

http://sondaggiproiezioni.blogspot.it/2013/11/verso-le-europee-2014-simulazione-della.html

[Senator Cris]

IPR poll for the EP elections in Italy (the first poll for the EP elections)

The national date is "Italia"



Seats:

PD 23
M5S 21
Forza Italia 20
NCD 5
Lega 4

Threshold: 4%

[Senator Cris]

My Forecast

Probability to overcome the threshold of 4%

Democratic Party - 100,00%
5 Stars Movement - 100,00%
Forza Italia - 100,00%
New Centre Right - Udc - Populars - 98,44%
Lega Nord - 75,15%
Other Europe with Tsipras - 61,07%
Brothers of Italy - AN - 13,50%
European Choice (Civic Choice - Democratic Centre - Fare) - 0,93%
Greens - Green Italia - 0,00%
Italy of Values - 0,00%
Svp - 0,00%

[Senator Cris]

My Forecast

Probability to overcome the threshold of 4%

Democratic Party - 100,00%
5 Stars Movement - 100,00%
Forza Italia - 100,00%
New Centre Right - Udc - Populars - 98,44%
Lega Nord - 75,15%
Other Europe with Tsipras - 61,07%
Brothers of Italy - AN - 13,50%
European Choice (Civic Choice - Democratic Centre - Fare) - 0,93%
Greens - Green Italia - 0,00%
Italy of Values - 0,00%
Svp - 0,00%

Two decimals?

To be more precise

In Italy, the polls are reported with one decimal. In the United States, the majority of the polls are reported without decimals.

[Senator Cris]

My Forecast

Probability to overcome the threshold of 4%

Democratic Party - 100,00%
5 Stars Movement - 100,00%
Forza Italia - 100,00%
New Centre Right - Udc - Populars - 98,44%
Lega Nord - 75,15%
Other Europe with Tsipras - 61,07%
Brothers of Italy - AN - 13,50%
European Choice (Civic Choice - Democratic Centre - Fare) - 0,93%
Greens - Green Italia - 0,00%
Italy of Values - 0,00%
Svp - 0,00%

Two decimals?

To be more precise

In Italy, the polls are reported with one decimal. In the United States, the majority of the polls are reported without decimals.

Yes, I now, but how do you get those numbers?

Is a my calculation. I have considered all the polls and the percentage of all parties.

[Senator Cris]

http://www.corriere.it/foto-gallery/politica/14_aprile_06/elezioni-europee-2014-simboli-03cad928-bd56-11e3-b2d0-9e36fa632dc6.shtml

The symbols for the EP elections in Italy.

[Senator Cris]

My Forecast

Voting Intentions

Democratic Party - 31,7%
5 Stars Movement - 23%
Forza Italia - 21%
New Centre Right - Udc - 5,7%
Lega Nord - 4,8%
Other Europe with Tsipras - 4,1%
=======================
Brothers of Italy - AN - 3,3%
European Choice (Civic Choice - Democratic Centre - Fare) - 2,4%
Others - 4%

Probability to overcome the threshold of 4%

Democratic Party - 100%
5 Stars Movement - 100%
Forza Italia - 100%
New Centre Right - Udc - 97,3%
Lega Nord - 80,3%
Other Europe with Tsipras - 50,6%
Brothers of Italy - AN - 19,8%
European Choice (Civic Choice - Democratic Centre - Fare) - 5%
Others - 0%

[Senator Cris]

TECNE' Poll for Italy

PD 28,9%
M5S 27,4%
FI 21,3%
Lega 5,3%
NCD-UDC 4,8%
===========
FDI-AN 3,8%
Tsipras 3,8%
European Choice-ALDE 2,3%
Others 2,4%

DEMOPOLIS Poll

PD 33,2%
M5S 25%
FI 17%
NCD-UDC 5,6%
Lega 5,4%
Tsipras 4%
===========
FDI-AN 3,8%
European Choice-ALDE 2,3%
Others 3,7%

IPSOS Poll

PD 34,4%
M5S 23,7%
FI 19,3%
NCD-UDC 5,9%
Lega 5,1%
==========
FDI-AN 3,9%
Tsipras 3,3%
European Choice-ALDE 3,2%
Others 1,2%

EMG Poll

PD 33,1%
M5S 24,4%
FI 19,6%
NCD-UDC 5,1%
Lega 4,5%
FDI-AN 4%
==========
Tsipras 3,8%
European Choice-ALDE 2,5%
Others 3%

SWG Poll

PD 35,4%
M5S 21,9%
FI 18%
Lega 5,6%
NCD-UDC 4,9%
===========
Tsipras 3,8%
FDI-AN 3,5%
European Choice-ALDE 2,2%
Others 4,7%