EP elections 2014

[sirius3100]

The announcement of Eugen Freund (see above) as SPÖ-frontrunner for the EP elections has pushed the SPÖ into a tie with ÖVP and FPÖ in the new Gallup poll (sample = 400, Jan. 15-16):

Really? With a sample size of 400 and a change of just 1% isn't more likely that it's just statistical fluctuation?

[sirius3100]

It will be interesting if they get beyond the 4% election threshold (they got only 2% in the federal elections).

But even if they pass the official 4% threshold it still isn't really sure whether they really get a seat: The threshold they really have to clear will probably be around 5% with Austria only having 18 seats and using D'Hondt as the seat allocation method.
So they have basically no chance of getting a seat. What I don't know: Is there are lower threshold to qualify for additional party funding, like we have it in Germany?

[sirius3100]

What "german gauche citizen activism group" are you thinking of? Pirates? And the preconditions to form a caucus/faction are seven states and 25 members. Where would they come from? Pirates will only have 2 to 4 MEP, and if the three percent threshold isn't declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, it is possible, they don't make it at all.

Getting the 25 MEPs won't be so hard if we really assume that the M5S is involved (I'm not sure if that party was meant with beppe). I don't know current EU parliament polls for Italy but going by other polls I would predict that the M5S will get around 15 seats. So only approximately 10 more from 6 different countries would be required. So if they do get MEPs from those 6 other countries there's a high probability that they also have 25 or more MEPs in total.

I'm not sure which groups in Germany -having a chance of getting a seat if the 3% threshold is scrapped- one could actually call "citizen activists groups". As already mentioned the Free Voters and Pirates could be. The ÖDP initiated some referendums in Bavaria during the last years and if one considers direct democracy as a proxy for the status as a "citizen activists group" one could count them; but I wouldn't say they are one ideologically.
But if the 3% threshold is cancelled around 0.5% of the total votes will probably be enough to get a seat, so a lot of fringe groups need be considered. I'm pretty sure at least one of them would join a faction of "citizen activists".

[sirius3100]

Austrian test:

NEOS 84
Grüne 64
SPÖ 53
EUAnders 47
ÖVP 41
BZÖ 37
Rekos 21
FPÖ 19
EU-Stop 19

Electio (EU-wide):
EPP 81%
ALDE 76%
S&D 70%
Greens-EFA 65%
ECR 51%
GUE-NGL 49%
EFD 43%

Electio (Germany only):
Piraten 70%
SPD 70%
CSU 69%
Grüne 65%
FDP 65%
LINKE 49%


At least the last "test" is "right". I will either vote for the Piraten or for SPD. Depends on how close the pollsters see the race between EPP and S&D near election day. If I see a real chance that my vote may help to make Schulz the Commission President I will vote for the SPD. Not because I especially like Schulz -I think that Juncker is also alright- but I would just prefer to have a S&D guy as the head of the commission.

[sirius3100]

And these are the other minor parties (keep in mind, that after the abolition of the threshold the parties now need 0.5796% in order to be sure to win a seat.):

This number seems to be from wahlrecht.de. But in their example there are 10 parties running for 30 seats. And the number is given in seat fractions and not in percent.
Using the formula also given at wahlrecht.de I calculate 0,592% for this treshold using 25 parties and 96 seats. And 0,429% as the lower limit to be able to gain a seat.

I'm also quite disappointed on the low media coverage for the minor parties. At least they could list their percentages in the polls.

[sirius3100]

My Wahl-O-Mat results:

Pirates 80,8%
SPD 74%
Animal Protection 72,1%
Greens 70,2%
Family 65,4%
FDP 64,4%
Left 58,7%
Free Voters 51,9%
ÖDP 51,9%
AFD 51,0%
CDU 51,0%
CSU 50,0%
BP 48,1%
NPD 36,5%
REP 28,8%

edit: my Wahlkabine.at results:
Europa Anders 292
Greens 277
NEOS 220
ÖVP 3
BZÖ -54
FPÖ -100
REKOS -278

[sirius3100]

The idea that anyone in Latvia or wherever is going to change their vote because of how people in the Netherlands voted is delusional.

I may change my vote depending on how many seats the PES gets in the UK and other countries. But exit polls will still help me with my decision.

[sirius3100]

Then no one would vote in them.

In that case they should just get rid of the EU parliament.  But they shouldn't do that until they do elections with european parties first.

Abolishing the EU parliament would be a great idea as nobody cares about it. Your other idea is absurd for that very reason.

For me personally the EU elections are the most important elections I can take part of. I know that's not the case for the majority of the people, but I hate it whenever someone states that nobody cares about this election.
And I know that the european parliament doesn't have the powers national parliaments do have, but at least there are still some fundamental decisions to be made at the EU level.

I for one don't care about local elections at all^*. But that doesn't mean that those are useless or nobody cares about them.

*I'm still always voting in them, but that's mostly because I see voting as a civil duty. But I'm often throwing in either a blank ballot or a vote for the party I would have voted for in elections at the national level.

[sirius3100]

(Greens and NEOS have their 2 seats safely anyway)

In some polls NEOS isn't far away from a third seat. So EA getting one seat may hurt NEOS.

[sirius3100]

(Greens and NEOS have their 2 seats safely anyway)

In some polls NEOS isn't far away from a third seat. So EA getting one seat may hurt NEOS.

Just lately, Neos has been dropping quite a bit and are nowhere near this third seat anymore.

I know. That's why I wrote "in some polls". The sample sizes in polls are way to low to estimate the numbers to more than 1-2% accuracy anway. So any apparent small short term trends may just be statistical fluctuations.
NEOS also is a pretty new party and never before run at the EU elections, so I'm not sure if the pollsters already know how to interpret the raw data they got from the polling.