EP elections 2014

[Cassius]

Surely 'inciting' the voters is one of the things the AfD needs to do better.

On the subject of the AfD, what, actually, are they for. I mean, from reading the wikipedia page (yes, sadly, up until recently wikipedia was my main source on the politics of foreign countries) they seem vaguely eurosceptic... And yet, even on that, they seem a bit fuzzy.

[Cassius]

Another British poll, this time by YouGov:

Labour 32 Con 24 UKIP 23 LDem 10 Green 5

So UKIP are slipping. They really do need to tune down the demagogic 'UKIP are going to cause a massive political earthquake and sweep to a victory of Biblical proportions' spiel they seem to have going on. If they keep things relatively low-profile, 23 percent will look good. If they carry on as they are now the election will be a damp squib (mind you, since they seem to thrive of maintaining a high-profile, I'm not sure what the best solution is).

[Cassius]

Scottish poll:

http://news.stv.tv/politics/269244-snp-ahead-of-scottish-labour-in-european-election-voting-intention/

SNP 41% (+12)
Labour 29% (+8)
Tories 13% (-4)
Ukip 6% (+1)
Liberal Dems 5% (-7)

Which would probably give a result of three Nats, 2 Labourites and 1 Tory.

Oof, the results aren't pretty for the Lib Dems.

And good luck to those Austrian monarchists

[Cassius]

How about if people vote for the groups not the party. So, rather than voting for, say, a Labour candidate to join the SandD coalition; we straight out vote for "Social Democrats".

That would hopefully remove the situation whereby people use the EU election to punish their own government.

No, that would give the parties some incentive to run coherent, Europe-wide election campaigns... which isn't what is needed at all.

[Cassius]

I'm sure the slogans sound far better the original German. German, for whatever reason, doesn't seem to translate particularly well (all those compound nouns I guess ).

[Cassius]

From The Independent

"The UK Independence Party is on course to win the largest share of the vote in elections for the European Parliament in May, according to a ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday. Nigel Farage's Ukip is in the lead on 30 per cent, two points ahead of Labour, on 28 per cent, with the Conservatives in third place on 21 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on only 8 per cent.

Such a result would be a remarkable victory for a party with no MPs, and would probably double Ukip's 13 seats in the Brussels parliament that it won four years ago. It would be a bitter blow to David Cameron, whose party is already deeply anxious about the threat of Ukip eating into its vote in the general election next year."

Do you think Cameron would call a referendum if UKIP won?

No, at least not immediately. Cameron's strategy is to negotiate with the EU new conditions of UKs membership. He hopes to get support from Merkel and other Nordic and Central European countries, because these countries need the UK as a net contributor and ally against the Mediterranean countries. In his dreams, he wants then as a successful negotiator hold a referendum and tells the people: NOW you really can vote yes.

The polls are currently very volatile in the UK. But should UKIP really win the European elections, the conservative MPs will make in fear in their pants. Then they could require a referendum, or electoral pacts with UKIP. In both cases, the coalition with the EU-philic LibDems would burst. It is truly an open situation with many possible scenarios. But Camerons option is that he holds the Tories together somehow, the new double-sized UKIP group in the EP decomposes and produces dissenters and scandals, Cameron wins by a miracle the next election, is negotiating with the EU, holds the referundum and wins it all.

As a German euroskeptic who is not against the EU membership of Germany (but I demand strong reforms!), two hearts beat in my chest. I understand UKIP and the Majority of the Tories, but an EU without the UK would be a nightmare for Germany.

Well, if UKIP do win top the poll in May (and that's a really big if, since Labour will probably come first) then that would be very bad news for Cameron (which is why, in recent months, the Tories have been tacitly playing up chances of UKIP success to soften the blow if they really are that successful), and he would pretty much have to confirm that there would be a referendum post 2015 (assuming the Tories get back in, which is far from certain), so as to try and stick a pin in UKIP. But since he has already effectively promised a referendum, I doubt confirming it would do much to harm the current pact with the Lib Dems (who have a stake in prolonging this government for as long as possible).

Anyway, apparently UKIP have aligned themselves with Arise the Republic, a minor French Gaullist and eurosceptic party... Do they stand a chance of getting any MEP's?

[Cassius]

These were my results for the vote match...

UK: UKIP (duh)
France: DLR/FN (no MPF )
The Netherlands: PVV/Christian Unie
Germany: The Republicans
Austria: REKOS
Italy: FDI-AN
Spain: Citizens (wuh?)
Czech Republic: Reasonable/Party of Free Citizens
Slovakia: Freedom and Solidarity
Poland: Law and Justice/National Movement
Lativia: KDS
Bulgaria: GERB/RB
Greece: Independent Greeks/Popular Orthodox Rally

These results are kind of all over the place...

[Cassius]

Two new UK polls. This is gonna be a horrible result.

ComRes/ITV
UKIP 38 (+8)
Labour 27 (-3)
Tory 18 (-4)
LibDem 8 (nc)

TNS-BMRB
UKIP 36 (+7)
Labour 27 (-3)
Tory 18 (-3)
LibDem 10 (+1)

Despite the admittedly dubious record of these polling companies, this is still hilarious. Its particularly amusing that despite the recent mini-avalanche of scandals and gaffes that have hit UKIP, they're still rising in the polls.

[Cassius]

Juncker and SChultz? Are the European parties deliberately trolling us with those choices?

In my own humble opinion, this whole Europe-wide 'election campaign', with debates and 'candidates' for the Presidency of the Commission is basically one spectacular exercise in trolling.

[Cassius]

I enjoyed the debate, but the truth is that euroscepticism and the far-right are rising everywhere in Europe, and the fact that they refuse to participate in a debate such as this one only makes the debate less relevant.  I would have liked to see a Farage or a Le Pen even if I disagree with them 100%.

These people believe that they're running for the post of President of the EU Commission (or something like that). It'd be a little awkward for an avowed eurosceptic to take part in a debate between candidates for that office.

[Cassius]

An example of how Ireland is different: at least 3 out of 4 ALDE candidates are absolutely pro-life, even (explicitly or tacitly) when the life of the mother is at risk.

Yes well, Fianna Fail's main reason for being in ALDE is basically that there's no room at the inn in the EPP. I mean, it wouldn't really work having both FF and FG in the same European parliamentary grouping (even if these are irrelevant).

[Cassius]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10839448/My-rivals-should-be-hanged-for-treason-says-Ukip-candidate.html

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in case anyone here was considering voting for these people.

So, the man has a few drinks and goes on a big paranoid, hyperbolic, ultra-nationalist, anti-masonic, anti-Papist rant... that's what UKIP is all about. So, despite what one (ok, maybe a couple of dozen) candidate said, I'm still voting for them...

[Cassius]

Did a little poll at school today (this election has generated a bizarre amount of interest - probably because its the first in which most of us will be voting). These were the results:

Green: 5
UKIP: 5 (including me)
Conservative: 4
Labour: 3
No2EU: 1
Liberal-Democrats: Nil