EP elections 2014

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I haven't being following this election too closely, so it might have already been covered, but could ALDE lose its third party role?

If FDP and the Lib Dems gets wiped down to three seats apiece (quite likely IMHO), they'd be down to 59 MEP's, which is dangerously close to Green-EFA's 58 seats. Of course, the Green's aren't doing well in France at all, but is their a chance they could make up for it by grabbing third place?

(Or, conversely, could either the far-left or right end up in third?)

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Scottish poll:

http://news.stv.tv/politics/269244-snp-ahead-of-scottish-labour-in-european-election-voting-intention/

SNP 41% (+12)
Labour 29% (+8)
Tories 13% (-4)
Ukip 6% (+1)
Liberal Dems 5% (-7)

Which would probably give a result of three Nats, 2 Labourites and 1 Tory.

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Bulgaria; and the governing BSP are apparently being punished by their pro-Russian base for their handling of Crimea. Centre-right opposition, GERB has taken the lead (but still less than their 25% last election). Happily, far-right Attack! have largely vanished in the polls - that'll teach them to put an imperative verb as the party name.

GERB 17.5
Socialist party (BSP) 15.2
Movement for Rights Freedom (MRF) 5.2
Bulgaria without Censorship/VMRO Reformist Bloc 5.1
Alternative for Bulgarian Revival 4.0

MRF is a Turkish ethnic party and part of ALDE; Bulgaria without Censorship/VMRO is a new (and mysterious) left-leaning anti-corruption party headed by a journalist - I presume they'll ally with ALDE or the Greens; and Alternative is yet another left-leaning party headed by the former Socialist foreign minister.

This poll (obviously) is pretty crappy - barely anyone seems to have actually made up their minds! I just wanted to find an Eastern European poll, to see if any surprises pop up.

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Possible parties to ally with 5 Star Movement might be slightly tricky (they're certainly one of a kind), but I'm thinking they could make a "broad tent" anti-politics populist grouping with parties like Greece's To Potami (assuming they don't ally with the Greens) and Alliance for Deutschland (who have no party to call their own) That is really the only choice for them.


@Enno - welcome to the forum! I know it won't happen, but I would laugh my bum off if the FDP don't manage to get an MEP even without the threshold.

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Trouble is their really is no place for UKIP at present. Its EFD friends have abandoned it for NF - and Farage does not want the PR of being allied to La Pen; and it can't join ECR for extremely obvious reasons. Meanwhile AfD's leadership are only anti-Euro not anti-EU, so they have some fundamental divides.

I guess 5SM/UKIP/AfD have to hope some snivelling tiny new parties from Eastern Europe are elected to bully into a new alliance.

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Could someone from Italy tell me why UDC sit in EPP and not with ALDE like pretty much every other centrist in Europe?

Also, no threshold in Italy EU elections - so alliances are less essential to get in.

@TheDeadFlagRag - I suppose To Potami are picking up on Syriza's voters who dislike the government, but are still wary of Syriza's radical origins.

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So Cameron want let AfD inte ECR and AfD does not want to cooperate with UKIP. So EFD will probably be dissolved. Some of these want to joins ECR like Danish DF and Finnish Peruss, probably also som Baltics parties. IF UKIP them turns to Grillos M5S AfD will have to sit with the non inscrits?! And the flemish NVa will join ECR after thr Scotish referendum. Som ECR will grow?!

Apparently the membership of AfD is quite keen on the UKIP alliance, but the leadership are wary. Perhaps AfD might lose their squeamishness - especially if they have to sit in non-inscruits with the real nutters.

I am sure there is a 4%-threshold in Italy this timme. Som NCD, FDI and UCD need som kind of cooperation. Lega Nord polls just over 4%. All in all almost 10% ponts of the italian centre right votes might be lost ie one third off it.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/eplibrary/InfoGraphic-2014-European-elections-national-rules.pdf

This pdf seems to indicate no threshold in the Italian elections - although it obviously hasn't been updated in a while, since Germany still has a threshold.

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How about if people vote for the groups not the party. So, rather than voting for, say, a Labour candidate to join the SandD coalition; we straight out vote for "Social Democrats".

That would hopefully remove the situation whereby people use the EU election to punish their own government.

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On an unrelated note, why is PASOK calling itself L'Ulivo or whatever now?

Because PASOK's name is lower than mud and they're desperate enough to disguise themselves to avoid complete obliteration come May?

*spoilers* it won't work

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I quite like the election posters, especially the NEOS one and the super melodramatic Alliance/Green cropfields. They have a certain charm.

Meanwhilem lets Czech some recent polling:

http://praguepost.com/eu-news/38004-ano-is-favorite-in-ep-elections

New right-wing liberals ANO (presumably ALDE or PP) have pretty much replaced Cameron's mates the ODS as the centre-right Czech party, and have overtaken the Social Democrats. The Communists have a minor slide relative to 2009, and apart from new right wing group TOP09, everyone else is dicking about the threshold.

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Why do so many Americans love Farage? I always thought his Little-Englander anti-immigration schtick was pretty much limited in appeal to Europeans. It seems odd that I see a lot of Yanks who love him. Not criticizing you, just a slightly bemusing trend I've noticed.

http://www.euractiv.com/sections/eu-elections-2014/martin-schulz-launches-european-campaign-paris-301660

Schulz campaign launches which includes a pan-European minimum wage. I'm guessing one tied to local standards of living, otherwise it would be a bit, erm, dramatic.

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You must be logged in to read this quote.

What the hell are you talking about? There have been plenty of elections which the right lost.

In fact, right won all European elections. Left never won any.
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He said "the first election", without precising the type. And regardless, the left actually won the 2004 European elections.
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Wait what? The EPP won a plurality,  and EPP+ALDE+ID add to form a majority...

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Sad times in Belgium as her largest party - the N-VA Flemish Nationalists - is being barred from the Greens EFA group. They've ruled out the far left, the eurosceptics and the far-right - I suppose either EPP or ALDE will let them in?

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Sad times in Belgium as her largest party - the N-VA Flemish Nationalists - is being barred from the Greens EFA group. They've ruled out the far left, the eurosceptics and the far-right - I suppose either EPP or ALDE will let them in?

Why've they been thrown out?

Because they've drifted rightwards and so look increasingly odd. Apparently the two Belgian Green parties suggested they leave.

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Has media attention been heightened on the minor parties since the abolition of the threshold?

Which ones do you think will enter Parliament? Because my fingers are crossed for DIE PARTIE

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Labour's polling will probably change quite dramatically next week when Cruddas's review is finally published, especially if the reformist, populist wing win over the cautious side.

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Labour's polling will probably change quite dramatically next week when Cruddas's review is finally published, especially if the reformist, populist wing win over the cautious side.

Up or down?!

I'm not sure. My gut instinct is that if Labour endorse something slightly far out (mooted ideas include train nationalisation, Scandinavian style childcare, allowing councils to borrow more for building housing,  an "NHS tax" paid for with a rise in NI contributions and intense decentralisation or federalisation); they'll at least gain a bit of energy.

Alternatively I could be completely wrong and the cautious wing are right. All of the above have fairly obvious ways to be attacked, so Labour could swing down if they mismanage it. However, I tend to disagree with this wing. People like parties who propose to do something, not just keep things as status quo. See: Milliband's rise in popularity following the "energy bills curbing" policy. That was literally the only time this parliament Labour have seized the national conversation and forced other parties to save face.

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Was Tspiras invited?

I'm actually liking Verhofstadt (I never thought I'd say that)

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Sorry to post a BNP video, but this has to be seen to be believed:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=am2-fVIkf8I

The BNP are going for the lucrative anti-hijab-penguins vote I see. Also Nick Griffin is ten feet tall, everybody else in the party is literally a cardboard cut out and the Fascists have well and truly run out of money/taste.

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On a different matter, how on the ball is the typical UKIP voter?  Because, in most English regions, when given their ballot paper they're going to find that the first party on the list is "An Independence from Europe - UK Independence Now", which is Mike Nattrass's splinter party; how many of them are going to fall for that?

And another YouGov poll for the UK, commissioned by the Green Party, says Lab 30 UKIP 27 Con 22 LD 9 Green 8.

Not particularly, I'd imagine. That's mainly based on the 2012 London elections where UKIP underperformed due to messing up their name on the ballot paper.

Strange news from Greece, where public funding awards biggest election sum to that most relevant of parties, erm, PASOK.

http://www.enetenglish.gr/?i=news.en.article&id=1891

Sorry to post a BNP video, but this has to be seen to be believed:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=am2-fVIkf8I

The BNP are going for the lucrative anti-hijab-penguins vote I see. Also Nick Griffin is ten feet tall, everybody else in the party is literally a cardboard cut out and the Fascists have well and truly run out of money/taste.

Did you encounter their van which was driving around Sheffield playing loud music last month?  Apparently they were playing their version of the Wurzels' Combine Harvester song in Hillsborough.

Hahaha, the one good thing about UKIP's rise is how much the "traditional" anti-immigration parties are unnerved. (Also I hope the Wurzels sue them)

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Very different to what we were told last week. As in the presidential election and single-constituency general election polling, you can't trust the polls!!!

Funnily enough, that's UKIP's next slogan.

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Lib Dems in 5th:

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Labour's latest Party Political Broadcast attacks Clegg

What's the point?

Lowest of low-hanging fruit...

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I think the upper house should be indirectly elected. Make it a few representatives of each member states legislature.

In the lower house I'd just force STV to promote individuals on everyone (so people might actually know the names of their MEP) and promote pan-European parties so people don't just punish S&D because they hate their Labour government, for example.

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Maybe it could be replaced with staggered national non-partisan election for 4 or so individuals to represent the country to the EU? Like the US Senate (in a very loose degree).