EP elections 2014

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Dear communtiy members , I enjoy your informative posts for a very long time as a reader and thank you very much for the instructive posts over the years . My first posting is nothing special, just an information about the last German survey.

Probably the most interesting is the tendency that the FDP (Liberals) continues to lose ground, while the AfD (conservative and Euro-skeptical ) - despite internal disputes - strengthens .While the FDP hardly takes place in the media and has difficulties to develop unique selling points , the AfD discussed their course in the European Parliament. It is not that of their unanimously decided program the problem, but with whom she wants to be in a group . The Young Alternative (Afd - youth) had Nigel Farage (UKIP ) invited to discuss with him his theses . A discussant was the assessor in the Federal Executive of the AfD and # 7 on the list Marcus Pretzell . This took part against the directives of the AfD chairman Professor Lucke in this event and was admonished by the Board for his interview with Farage. Lucke attempts to delineate the party by all right-wing populist formations and would prefer to make a pact with the Tories and the ECR. It seems, therefore, that the AfD may belong to any faction, as the ECR MEPs the AfD would have loved to record, but Cameron has promised Merkel not to do so .

Germany

28.03.2014
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF    
        
CDU/CSU 39 %    
SPD 26 %    
Greens 12 %       
Left 8 %    
AfD 6 %
FDP 3 %
Others 6 %

[Enno von Loewenstern]

If it's allowed for me as a new member, I would have some questions to the members of the forum on specific national issues :

1. Denmark

What tendency has the Liberal Alliance regarding their ballot status? Will it compete alone, or in partnerchip with the national-conservative Danish People's Party or the Conservatives?

2. Finland

What trend do have the Christiandemocrats with regard to their choice of participation? Will they compete alone, or with the "True Finns" as the last time?

3. Netherlands

Is there a pact between SGP and CU again? Is the debate about "less Moroccan" weaken or strengthen the PVV? The same question for the debate aboute the Rap calling for murder Geert Wilders.

4. Belgium

Is the right-wing libertarian LDD dead, or at least virtually?

5. Luxembourg

Is there an opportunity for the Left and the ADR to enter the EP?

6 France

Are there appointments between the UMP and the UDI on the right and between PS, PCF, FG and EELV on the left ? Is Phillippe de Villiers and the MPF competing again? If not, is he recommending a party (UMP, DLR, FN)?

7 Spain

What chance does the new Conservative Party Vox have?

8 Italy

In which formations the center , center-right and right-wing parties compete ? Will for eample FI, NDC and FDI unite?

9 Austria

Will the Team Strochnach compete ? What are the chances of the BZÖ and Stadlers new Reformconservatives? Is there a chance of Reunfication with the FPÖ after the elections?

10 Czech Republic

To which fraction ANO and Usvit will belong?



Thanks in advance for your advice. The other countries next time.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

If it's allowed for me as a new member, I would have some questions to the members of the forum on specific national issues :

Austria

Will the Team Strochnach compete ? What are the chances of the BZÖ and Stadlers new Reformconservatives? Is there a chance of Reunfication with the FPÖ after the elections?

Thanks in advance for your advice. The other countries next time.

Team Stronach:

We'll know that in the next 2 weeks: On April 11, at 5pm at the latest, the party lists need to be handed in at the Interior Ministry.

BZÖ/Stadler:

According to the polls 1-3%, well below what is required for a seat. And I don't think they will gain much traction, because neither the BZÖ nor Stadler has the money to compete. Unless they find a future topic where they can gain some points ...

Reunfication with the FPÖ:

Hell no ! The FPÖ doesn't want anything to do anymore with Stadler and the Haider-people. Not when the Hypo scandal (that was basically started by Haider and a few others) is the dominating domestic topic right now.

...

Welcome to the Forum by the way

I appreciate your rapid and profound response. And thanks for the welcome. Greetings to Austria!

[Enno von Loewenstern]

France:

Ipsos

UMP 24%
FN 22%
PS 19%
EELV 10%
MoDem-UDI 8%
FDG 8%
DLR 3,5%
LO 2%
Europe citoyenne 2%
NPA 1%

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Possible parties to ally with 5 Star Movement might be slightly tricky (they're certainly one of a kind), but I'm thinking they could make a "broad tent" anti-politics populist grouping with parties like Greece's To Potami (assuming they don't ally with the Greens) and Alliance for Deutschland (who have no party to call their own) That is really the only choice for them.


@Enno - welcome to the forum! I know it won't happen, but I would laugh my bum off if the FDP don't manage to get an MEP even without the threshold.

It is possible that the AfD will join such a group, as their Leader Lucke could thus distinguished from right-wing parties. However, I see no other partners for such a group.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Lucke (AfD) has ruled out, that he will sit together in one groupe with Farage (UKIP). But there is an infight within the AfD about this subject. At this moment i would prdeict, that the AfD will stand alone. The only possibility is that the ECR MEPs prevail against Cameron and recording them.

The FDP will win seats (3-4), because there is no "5%-Hürde" in Germany anymore.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Because of the electoral system the gloves are off and alliances are not as necessary. They only do that in parliamentary or municipals because they have more to lease by facing each other.
PCF and PG (who form the bulk of FG) will unite though and won't run cnadidates against each other.

I wish I could be so affirmative now... What happened in the municipales will leave traces, and PCF and PG are pretty pissed at each other. The other FG members are trying to save what can be saved. But the PG is really getting to get its hopes up on a "renewed FG" centered only around him, like it was in Paris. They don't even care if they only get 1 MEP, because it will be their own.


As for MPF, De Villiers is politically dead, and I think also physically dying, at least quite ill. MPF will most certainly participate in UMP's West list, but maybe not very high.

Could you explain the main differences between the PCF, PG and FG?

[Enno von Loewenstern]

If it's allowed for me as a new member, I would have some questions to the members of the forum on specific national issues :



5. Luxembourg

Is there an opportunity for the Left and the ADR to enter the EP?

7 Spain

What chance does the new Conservative Party Vox have?

8 Italy

In which formations the center , center-right and right-wing parties compete ? Will for eample FI, NDC and FDI unite?

10 Czech Republic

To which fraction ANO and Usvit will belong?



Thanks in advance for your advice. The other countries next time.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

France:

Ipsos

UMP 24%
FN 22%
PS 19%
EELV 10%
MoDem-UDI 8%
FDG 8%
DLR 3,5%
LO 2%
Europe citoyenne 2%
NPA 1%

Which would give this in seats :
UMP   24   22
PS   19   15
EELV   10   6
Modem-UDI   8   6
FG   8   4
FN   22   18
NPA   1   0
DLR   3,5   0

The Euro skepticism is gaining ground, according to the survey

One of three French today feel that France "has more to lose as profit from the EU," compared with 30%, it has more to gain than to lose, 37% think "as much as the other." Euro-skepticism is especially of a very large majority (70%) supported in the vicinity of the FN.

Source: sondageselections over-blog com

[Enno von Loewenstern]

I am sorry to interrupt your far left discussion for the latest german survey. Do not feel disturbed. ;-)

Infratest dimap    for ARD       

CDU/CSU 40 %    
SPD 28 %
Greens 9 %    
Left 7 %    
AfD 6 %
FDP 3 %        
Others 7 %

I would estimate the "others" : 2-2,5% Pirates, 1-1,5% Free Voters, 1% NPD, 0,5-1% Animal Protection, ÖDP, Die Partei, less than 0,5 pro NRW, REP etc.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Anderas Mölzer is such an racist idiot. I am against political correctness and i am against the inflationary accusations of racism, but Mölzer needs to retire. It is not surprising that the AfD not want to sit with him in a group. And now even the Swedendemocrats. They are absolutely right!

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Are the doors closed to a pact of FI/LD and FDI-AN? The same with reagards to SC and UDC/NCD or PD?

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Wouldn't FI going with the Le Pen coalition be a pretty massive blow to EPP?

That will not happen. If the EPP wants them, than FI will take part. Their other option is the ECR but not Le Pen.

By the way: More than 50% of Italians vote for Euro-skeptic parties (M5S, FI, LD, FDI, Tsirpas, LN). Is there any other country in the EU with such a majority?

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Good news for and from austria and the FPÖ.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Breaking News (no joke): Ulrike Haider, daughter of the late Jörg Haider, just stepped down as BZÖ frontrunner for the EP elections.

WTF is going on today ?

Source:

http://mobil.derstandard.at/1395364664088/Haider-Quercia-legt-BZOe-Kandidatur-zurueck

This might be one of the best days in recent years, politically speaking ...

* Mölzer (Nazi and Racist) steps down, leaving the FPÖ to lick their wounds
* Haider steps down, leaving the BZÖ as an even bigger joke party
* Team Stronach is not running, continues its joke status
* EU top court rules against mass data storage
* ÖVP agrees to bring civil unions more in line with hetero marriages

All that will help the FPÖ. I have seen Ukrike Haider (BZÖ) on ORF ZiB2 where she did incredibly bad. Team Stronach is dead since Frank Stronch went back to Canada. So both populist movements are dead and no competitors for the FPÖ anymore. For euroskeptical voters there is now just only one party left.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen    ZDF    
        
39% CDU/CSU    
27% SPD    
11% Greens        
8% Left    
6% AfD
3% FDP    
6% Others

[Enno von Loewenstern]

It is a well known fact that German speaking countries have the worst election posters in the world.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Some more:

Pirates

Du you want to vote with me? Yes (X), No (0), Mayby (0)

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Nationaldemocratic Party, NPD (far right)

"European ellections: No %-threshold No vote given away", "The boat is full"

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Alternative for Germany


"courage to/for Germany"

[Enno von Loewenstern]

SPD and CDU: the same government, same content, same posters :-)


for a Europe of cooperation not against of each other's


so that Europe brings opportunities for all

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Tomorrow at 11am, the first ORF debate between the frontrunners of the "small parties" takes place.

Martin Ehrenhauser - Europa Anders (Left-wing)
Angelika Werthmann - BZÖ (Right-wing)
Ewald Stadler - REKOS (Right-wing)
Robert Marschall - EU-STOP (Right-wing, isolationist)

http://tv.orf.at/program/orf2/20140413/709880001/376608

Ehrenhauser walked out of the debate about 5 minutes in, after he wanted to make an argument about the massive spying activities in Europe.

The ORF moderator interrupted him about 100 times because he actually wanted to know why Ehrenhauser was running for Martin's List in 2009 but now for "Europe Differently", so that Ehrenhauser wasn't able to finish his comment.

Then he walked out and didn't come back ...

Also, Stadler had a good debate performance for his REKOS Catholiban outfit.

The EU-STOP guy talked about how Austria needs to get out of the EU and become some isolationist island.

The BZÖ-woman was just there, but who cares ? The BZÖ is dead.

Bad news for all: Nobody watches an EU-election debate at 11am on a Sunday (only political nerds).

Thank you for the link. Stadler (Reformconservatives) did the best job, he was quiet sane and could be an alternative for some ÖVP, BZÖ and FPÖ Voters. Werthmann was just a joke as she is a joke candidat. The BZÖ is dead. Ehrenhausers (Left Europa anders) perfomance was ridiculous. The talk show host was not very fair against the Euro-Stop guy. He is the host, not another politician.

Do you think that there are any chances for Stadler/REKOS?

[Enno von Loewenstern]

The "Wiener Zeitung" now has their "election helper" out (you need to answer 30 questions and it shows you which of the 9 parties you are closest to):

http://wahlhelfer.wienerzeitung.at

I got "Europa anders" on top, FPÖ last.

REKOS 82
FPÖ 82
BZÖ 82
EUSTOP 76
ÖVP 60
SPÖ 52
EuropaAnders 25
Greens 19
NEOS 10

[Enno von Loewenstern]

From The Independent

"The UK Independence Party is on course to win the largest share of the vote in elections for the European Parliament in May, according to a ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday. Nigel Farage's Ukip is in the lead on 30 per cent, two points ahead of Labour, on 28 per cent, with the Conservatives in third place on 21 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on only 8 per cent.

Such a result would be a remarkable victory for a party with no MPs, and would probably double Ukip's 13 seats in the Brussels parliament that it won four years ago. It would be a bitter blow to David Cameron, whose party is already deeply anxious about the threat of Ukip eating into its vote in the general election next year."

[Enno von Loewenstern]

From The Independent

"The UK Independence Party is on course to win the largest share of the vote in elections for the European Parliament in May, according to a ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday. Nigel Farage's Ukip is in the lead on 30 per cent, two points ahead of Labour, on 28 per cent, with the Conservatives in third place on 21 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on only 8 per cent.

Such a result would be a remarkable victory for a party with no MPs, and would probably double Ukip's 13 seats in the Brussels parliament that it won four years ago. It would be a bitter blow to David Cameron, whose party is already deeply anxious about the threat of Ukip eating into its vote in the general election next year."

Do you think Cameron would call a referendum if UKIP won?

No, at least not immediately. Cameron's strategy is to negotiate with the EU new conditions of UKs membership. He hopes to get support from Merkel and other Nordic and Central European countries, because these countries need the UK as a net contributor and ally against the Mediterranean countries. In his dreams, he wants then as a successful negotiator hold a referendum and tells the people: NOW you really can vote yes.

The polls are currently very volatile in the UK. But should UKIP really win the European elections, the conservative MPs will make in fear in their pants. Then they could require a referendum, or electoral pacts with UKIP. In both cases, the coalition with the EU-philic LibDems would burst. It is truly an open situation with many possible scenarios. But Camerons option is that he holds the Tories together somehow, the new double-sized UKIP group in the EP decomposes and produces dissenters and scandals, Cameron wins by a miracle the next election, is negotiating with the EU, holds the referundum and wins it all.

As a German euroskeptic who is not against the EU membership of Germany (but I demand strong reforms!), two hearts beat in my chest. I understand UKIP and the Majority of the Tories, but an EU without the UK would be a nightmare for Germany.