EP elections 2014

[Tender Branson]

Early predictions:

* Turnout will drop significantly in most countries, because of anti-EU sentiment

There have been no polls about the EU elections here in Austria, but I think:

* Hans-Peter Martin's list will lose significantly
* Greens will increase their support significantly
* Team Stronach, if they run, will mostly gain from HPM's list and from the FPÖ, while the SPÖ and ÖVP will remain stable (maybe some losses)
* The BZÖ might not run or will get a very low result

Turnout here could drop to as low as 25-35%.

[Tender Branson]

There's a new Eurobarometer poll out about Young Voters voting in the EP elections next year:

http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/flash/fl_375_en.pdf

[Tender Branson]

A new Austria poll shows that 64% of those polled can't name a single Austrian MEP.

The name recognition rates for all MEP's:

Hannes Swoboda    SPÖ    18%
Othmar Karas    ÖVP    14%
Evelyn Regner    SPÖ    7%
Hans-Peter Martin    MARTIN    7%
Andreas Mölzer FPÖ    5%
Jörg Leichtfried    SPÖ    3%
Ulrike Lunacek    GRÜNE    3%
Ewald Stadler    BZÖ    3%
Josef Weidenholzer    SPÖ    3%
Karin Kadenbach    SPÖ    2%
Paul Rübig    ÖVP    1%
Martin Ehrenhauser    MARTIN    1%
Evelin Lichtenberger    GRÜNE    1%
Heinz Becker    ÖVP    0%
Elisabeth Köstinger    ÖVP    0%
Franz Obermayr    FPÖ    0%
Hubert Pirker    ÖVP    0%
Richard Seeber    ÖVP    0%
Angelika Werthmann    MARTIN    0%

http://www.heute.at/news/politik/art23660,889573

[Tender Branson]

The same pollster about possible turnout:

39% definitely vote (in their 2008 poll: 40%)
42% probably vote (in their 2008 poll: 31%)
  9% probably not vote (in their 2008 poll: 12%)
  8% definitely not vote (in their 2008 poll: 9%)
  2% don't know yet (in their 2008 poll: 7%)

Actual turnout was 46% in the 2009 elections here.

Which means that only those who say they "definitely will vote" turn out and a tiny part of the "probably" voters.

http://www.oegfe.at/cms/uploads/media/PPT_01.pdf

I think turnout next year will be ca. 50% here (+/- 5%).

[Tender Branson]

A new Austria poll shows that 64% of those polled can't name a single Austrian MEP.

Similar to along those lines:

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Not surprising, because nobody really cares about the EU or EU elections, other than us.

[Tender Branson]

Any news on which grpup NVA (Belgium), Ol (Slovakia), AFD (Germany), TS (Austria) might join? The ECR or even the EFD?

What about a new extreme right group, which parties might join it?

Team Stronach hasn't even announced yet if they'll run for the EP next year.

HP Martin and the BZÖ didn't announce anything either.

The EU elections are definitely a non-issue here, considering the coming federal elections.

There has not even been a poll for the EU elections yet, maybe after October ...

[Tender Branson]

Why would not Stronach and Hans Peter Martin not stand?

Stronach focuses on the federal election and if he does underwhelmingly there (which I think could be the case), he might lose interest in elections here and especially for the EU and go back to Canada. Besides, Stronach would have no visible front-runner for the EU elections.

Hans-Peter Martin has been at the EU Parliament for the last 15 years, he could retire. Besides, he the guy who campaigned for transparency and against corruption, is now in corruption/transparency-related problems as well and the Austrian Corruption Prosecution is investigating against him and preparing a trial. So, he could refuse to run as well.

But, I could be wrong on both. Let's wait and see.

[Tender Branson]

I don't know a lot of Spanish, but I think this is not an EU-Parliament poll but rather a poll for the next Spanish parliamentary election ...

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ, the FN, the PVV and the Sweden Democrats might launch a joint election platform (or, if not, a parliamentary group later):

http://derstandard.at/1381369620792/FPOe-sucht-Bund-mit-Rechtsparteien-aber-ohne-Jobbik

Looks like they invited the UKIP as well, but they don't really want to.

FPÖ and FN rule out a co-operation with Jobbik though.

Let's see where this is going ... (this was proposed before, but nothing really happened).

[Tender Branson]

Here's the article:

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/10400740/Frances-FN-to-team-up-with-other-far-Right-parties-for-European-elections.html

Apparently FN, FPÖ, Vlaams Belang and Sweden Democrats are already in, while they are in talks with the PVV.

Jobbik, Golden Dawn and the BNP are not invited (too radical).

The UKIP has declined, and Marine LePen disses Nigel Farage:

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[Tender Branson]

Will be interesting to see if they can convince other parties to join the alliance:

* Lega Nord (Italy)
* True Finns (Finland)
* DF (Denmark)
* Ataka (Bulgaria)
* SNS (Slovakia)
* SNS (Slovenia)

Maybe the AfD in Germany ...

[Tender Branson]

Map showing the possible setup of the Far Right Alliance next year:



Dark Blue: already in

Netherlands-Blue: in talks

Light blue: maybe

Red: Out, too radical, not invited

Green: Other EU countries with either no far-right party, or not enough info

[Tender Branson]

The green primaries are to begin in a few dates, and six candidates will fight to be the two front-runners. José Bové from Europe Écologie, Rebecca Harms and Ska Keller from die Grüne in Germany, Ulrike Lunacek from the Austrian die Grünen, Monica Frassoni from Federazione dei Verdi and Joland Verburg from the small Dutch party de Groenen.

Ulrike Lunacek dropped out, because the Austrian Greens have left the primaries altogether.

Interesting.

Apparently because the Austrian Greens think the online voting system that will be used in the EU-wide primaries is flawed.

[Tender Branson]

Ulrike Lunacek dropped out, because the Austrian Greens have left the primaries altogether.

Btw, is the Austrian European Commissioner post a part of the coalition negotiations like in Germany?

Not that I'm aware of. Usually some random politician from the party that wins the EU elections here becomes European Commissioner.

[Tender Branson]

First Austrian poll for the EP elections by Karmasin for "Heute" newspaper (sample = 800):



http://www.heute.at/news/politik/art23660,953523

2009 results (rounded):

30% ÖVP
24% SPÖ
18% Martin
13% FPÖ
10% Greens
  5% BZÖ
  1% LuLis (now part of NEOS)
  1% KPÖ

[Tender Branson]

Below some background regarding the Austrian "Non-Inscrits" (Austria has the most elected NIs as a percentage of the total EP delegation, 6 out of 19). "Non-Inscrits" are MEPs with no membership in a EP group.

The 6 are:

* Ewald STADLER (elected for the BZÖ, gained the seat after the EP was re-apportioned and Austria got 1 more seat, expelled from the party about a month ago)

* Andreas MÖLZER (elected for the FPÖ)
* Franz OBERMAYR (elected for the FPÖ)

* Hans-Peter MARTIN (party leader of the HP Martin list, excentric and "not so easy" guy, querulant)
* Martin EHRENHAUSER (elected for HP Martin's list, but left it after severe personal problems with HP Martin)
* Angelika WERTHMANN (elected for HP Martin's list, but left it after severe personal problems with HP Martin, joined the Liberal EP group later in the term)

...

Because every MEP can run with his/her own list in an EP election, it might be possible that Martin, Ehrenhauser, Werthmann and Stadler all run with a list on their own in the 2014 election.

But: None of them has said that they are 100% going to run as of right now, even though Martin, Stadler and Ehrenhauser have hinted that they might: Martin to piss off the FPÖ, Stadler to piss off the BZÖ and Ehrenhauser to piss off Martin ...

[Tender Branson]

After some Googling, Werthmann (ex-Martin, now Liberals) could either retire from the EP, run as a candidate for NEOS down the list, or even as frontrunner or as a candidate on her own.

Probably A) is the most likely.

[Tender Branson]

The news magazine "Profil.at" reports that next week a EAF-conference will take place in Vienna, in which Far-Right members of the FN, FPÖ, Sweden Democrats and the Vlaams Belang will take part. They will talk about a co-operation in the 2014 EP elections.

The PVV and the Lega Nord might join later.

Even if the 2 parties join, it means the EAF would still need an MEP from a 7th country to form an EP group after the election.

MEPs from 7 of the 28 countries are needed to form a group.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20131109_OTS0004/profil-neue-europaeische-rechts-allianz-tagt-in-wien

[Tender Branson]

HP Martin likely running again next year, he tells the Vorarlberger Nachrichten:

http://www.vol.at/martin-will-bei-eu-wahl-antreten/3760736

He will decide for sure early next year, but he said he's definitely leaning towards running.

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Well, good I guess. Takes a couple % away from the FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

The "Kurier" has an article today about the early stages of the EP elections here:

http://kurier.at/politik/eu/eu-wahl-grosses-gedraenge-im-lager-der-protestparteien/35.035.935

In Austria, 44 days ahead of election day it will be known how many parties/lists will participate in the EP election. Election day is May 25, so we'll know who runs on April 11.

Definitely running so far:

* ÖVP, SPÖ, FPÖ, Greens, NEOS, BZÖ

Lean towards running:

* Team Stronach, KPÖ, Pirates, Hans-Peter Martin

Still thinking about what to do:

* Martin Ehrenhauser (ex-List Martin), Angelika Werthmann (ex-List Martin), Ewald Stadler (ex-BZÖ)

Minor parties that could try to run (need enough signatures):

* EU-Exit Party

...

The BZÖ, the KPÖ and the Pirates need to collect 2600 signatures ahead of the election to participate.

The Team Stronach, even though they are currently not in the EP, needs no signatures - because they only need the signatures of 3 MPs in the Austrian Parliament, which they have.

Martin, Ehrenhauser, Werthmann and Stadler would need no signatures either if they decide to run with their own list - because the EP election law says that they only need their own MEP signature.

[Tender Branson]

After the next EP election, Austria will have 18 MEPs again (down from 19 after the re-apportionment of the EP, but unchanged from the 2009 election).

According to the new poll, this would mean the following:

* 5 seats - ÖVP
* 5 seats - SPÖ
* 5 seats - FPÖ
* 2 seats - Greens
* 1 seat   - NEOS

If the new EAF group can be established in the next EP, Austria will go from having the most Non-Inscrits in the EP to having none of them (assuming Martin fails this time).

[Tender Branson]

The PVV is on board for the new Far-Right group.

Wilders and LePen held a press conference together a few hours ago in The Hague.

That makes it 5: FN, FPÖ, PVV, VB, SD

2 still needed for a group.

[Tender Branson]

Members of the FPÖ, FN, SD, VB, Lega Nord and the SNS mill meet tomorrow in Vienna for a Far-Right Conference. Maybe someone from the PVV will come too.

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/aussenpolitik/1478347/Europas-Rechte-schmiedet-Allianz-in-Wien

This would make it 7 countries, which is needed to form a Far-Right group in the EP.

[Tender Branson]

This is if SNS gets a seat. If not they Will need Ataka. Do you know if Ataka is invited?!

Don't know if they were invited, it was a secret meeting.

But the FPÖ invited ATAKA to Vienna recently and they came to visit:

http://www.ataka.bg/en/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=222&Itemid=1

Also, Ataka reported about the EAF press conference recently:

http://www.ataka.bg/en/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=233&Itemid=1

...

If you read the news releases, it's like 95% sure Ataka will join the EAF group if they get elected.

Also note that they wrote "Hans-Christian Strache", when in fact his name is Heinz-Christian ...

...

Also, the Lega Nord invited the FN, the FPÖ and the PVV to their convention on Dec. 15:

http://kurier.at/politik/eu/rechtsbuendnis-fpoe-zu-lega-nord-parteitag-geladen/36.003.621

...

If the LN and Ataka join, there would be 7 countries that are needed. Plus, there would still be the SNS of course as an alternative.

[Tender Branson]

Map update on the EAF status:



Dark Blue = more or less in for the new EAF group
Light Blue = in talks, might join & have not ruled it out

Green = not enough info, country has no major populist/far-right/eurosceptic party

Light red = the eligible parties have more or less ruled out joining EAF
Dark Red = the eligible parties have been ruled out by EAF (too extreme)