EP elections 2014

[freek]

My prediction for the Dutch seats: 26 in total.

2014 (compared to 2009, also 26 seats):
VVD 4 (+1)
PVV 4 (-1)
SP 3 (+1)
CDA 3 (-2)
D66 3 (0)
PvdA 3 (0)
50PLUS 2 (new)
CU/SGP 2 (0)
GrLinks 1 (-2)
PvdD 1 (new)

This is based on a few assumptions:
- CU/SGP participating as 1 list. After the 2009 elections, CU & SGP stopped co-operating after CU joined the ECR, and SGP was refused. CU has enough votes for 1.5 seats, SGP for 0.5 seat.
- Both GroenLinks and PvdD reaching the electoral threshold of 3.85%.
- Dutch opinion polls are highly volatile. At the moment 50PLUS is polling over 10%, and the PvdA/VVD coalition is at 27%.

[freek]

I have always thought that Sweden democrats are easily closer to FPÖ, JOBBIK and PVV than the moderate group. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Alliance_for_Freedom

I have never really understood why PVV didn't join the EFD group in the European Parliament, but remained non-inscrits by choice.

[freek]

Jolanda Verburg will not participate in the primary either. The European Green Party has announced that Bové, Frassoni, Harms and Keller will be the candidates in the primary. I haven't been able to find out why Verburg is not among them, but my guess will be that she didn't manage to get enough support from other parties. Candidates needed support from at least four parties to run in the actual primary.

A possible reason she didn't get enough support: Verburg is not a member of GroenLinks, but of De Groenen. It has become a fringe party in The Netherlands (about 50 members). At the last EP elections in 2009 it won 0.19% of the vote. The party hasn't participated in Second Chamber elections since 1998, and there is no chance at all that the party will win a seat in 2014.

[freek]

Members of the FPÖ, FN, SD, VB, Lega Nord and the SNS mill meet tomorrow in Vienna for a Far-Right Conference. Maybe someone from the PVV will come too.

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/aussenpolitik/1478347/Europas-Rechte-schmiedet-Allianz-in-Wien

This would make it 7 countries, which is needed to form a Far-Right group in the EP.

Yes, PVV has joined the conference.
Correction: PVV denies that the party took part

Members from 7 countries is one of the requirements, a fraction also has at least 25 members.

[freek]

Dutch parties are currently in the process of selecting candidates for their lists. Some parties have only announced their #1 candidate, other parties also publicized the full preliminary lists. The lists will be final early in 2014.

PvdA decided to ditch their entire delegation. All 3 of them were deselected by the party, because of the constant infighting in the past 5 years. Also, one of them (Judith Merkies MEP) apparently did not follow party guidelines about which parliamentary expenses she was allowed to claim. She took the party to court, but lost. Number 1 of the list will be Paul Tang, MP between 2007-2010. He beat 3 other candidates.

The VVD list is topped again by current MEP Hans van Baalen. Number 2 on the list will be Cora van Nieuwenhuizen, MP since 2010. MEP Jan Mulder is retiring, Toine Manders defected to 50Plus last month. Remarkable is number 20 on the list, Derk Jan Eppink. He is Dutch, but currently MEP for Lijst Dedecker (Belgium).

CDA chose current MEP Esther de Lange to top the list. She beat her colleague Wim van de Camp, who topped the list in 2009. Delegation member Lambert van Nistelrooij is only number 9 on the preliminary candidate list, the other 2 members are retiring.

D66 members have chosen Sophie in 't Veld to top the list for the 3rd time. The other candidate was her colleague Marietje Schaake. It is too bad Schaake lost, she is one of the most visible Dutch MEPs and is a strong campaigner for digital freedom.

The GroenLinks list is topped by Bas Eickhout, the other 2 delegation members are on places 2 and 4 on the preliminary list, but it would already be an achievement if GroenLinks manages to retain 1 seat.

The SP have announced that their only remaining MEP Dennis de Jong tops the list. SP had 2 seats in 2009, but Kartika Liotard became an independent 1 year later.

CU and SGP have decided to enter with a joint list again. The last 5 years both parties went their separate ways. CU is in the ECR group at the moment, but SGP is in the EFD group because the British Conservatives refused the SGP entry. This because the SGP barred female candidates from their lists. Since this policy has been reversed earlier this year, CU and SGP have decided to co-operate again. Number 1 on the list is Peter van Dalen (CU), number 2 is Bas Belder (SGP). Both are already members of the European Parliament.

Traditionally nothing is known about the PVV list yet. Probably there will not be many new candidates, PVV recycles most of their candidates. One thing is sure: Daniël van der Stoep, who was elected in 2009, will not be on the list. He was kicked out of the party in 2011 after causing a car crash while being drunk, and he founded his own party: 'Artikel 50'.

50Plus will participate with Toine Manders as their first candidate, also Partij voor de Dieren, Artikel 50, Piratenpartij and De Groenen plan to take part.

[freek]

Poll for The Netherlands, by TNS NIPO, published in NRC Handelsblad



Which gives in seats (giving GL and 50Plus the benefit of the doubt, the threshold is ~3.85%):

PVV 5 (0)
VVD 5 (+2)
SP 4 (+2)
D66 3 (0)
PvdA 3 (0)
CDA (-2)
CU/SGP 1 (-1)
50Plus 1 (+1)
GL 1 (-2)

Total = 26 seats (no change)

If parties combine their lists the same way as in 2009 (PvdA+GL; VVD+D66; CDA+CU/SGP), CU/SGP gain an extra seat, SP lose 1 seat.

(the result for Overig/Other in 2009 is an error, it should be 2.0%, not 12.0%)

[freek]

Out of interest, which countries do not have automatic "registration"?

In the EU ?

All I guess, but I'm not 100% sure.

In the UK and in Ireland voter registration is not automatic, as far as I know.

[freek]

Dutch poll (April 13). Not really a European Parliament poll, but rather one for the Second Chamber, corrected for lower turnout.



left to right: results of EP elections 2009, poll of June 2009, poll of April 2014 ("peiling nu"), poll after applying correction factor.

Which gives the following seat totals:
CDA 4 (-1)
PVV 4 (-1)
VVD 4 (+1)
D66 4 (+1)
SP 3 (+1)
PvdA 2 (-1)
CU/SGP 2 (0)
GL 1 (-2)
PvdD 1 (+1)
50Plus 1 (new)
Others 0
====
Total 26

[freek]

Participating parties in the Netherlands:

8 parties already represented in the European Parliament:
1. CDA - Europese Volkspartij
2. PVV (Partij voor de Vrijheid)
3. P.v.d.A./Europese Sociaaldemocraten
4. VVD
5. Democraten 66 (D66) - ALDE
6. GROENLINKS
7. SP (Socialistische Partij)
8. ChristenUnie-SGP

CDA & CU/SGP lists are combined, and also the PvdA & GL lists.

And 11 other parties:
9. Artikel50 - Named after article 50 of the EU Treaty "Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements." Founded by former PVV MEP Daniel van der Stoep, who resigned as MEP after a drunk driving incident, later returned to the European Parliament but was kicked out of the PVV.

10. IQ, de Rechten-Plichten-Partij  ('IQ - the Rights & Obligations Party) - Its lone candidate has some rather vague policies about clean energy and a mandatory IQtest for politicians. The party also tried to participate in the national elections of 2012, but failed to pay the deposit.

11. Piratenpartij - The Pirate Party. Participated in the 2010 & 2012 elections (0.3% in 2012).

12. 50PLUS - Party for the elderly, 2 seats/1.9% in 2012, around 3% in the polls

13. De Groenen - 'fundi' Greens. Founded in the 1980s. The last time the party participated on a national level were the European elections in 2009 - 0.2%

14. Anti EU(ro) Partij - Participated as "Anti Europa Partij" in the 2012 elections: 0.02% of the votes.

15. Liberaal Democratische Partij - Pro EU/Liberal split off of the VVD, founded in 2006. Scored 0.24% in the European elections of 2009 and 0.02% in the 2012 elections.

16. JEZUS LEEFT - 'Jesus lives'. Founded by 'roof evangelist' Joop van Ooijen. He lives on this farm, Giessenlanden municipality tried to force him to remove the text ('Jesus Saves'). In the end a compromise was reached: Van Ooijen had to paint it orange (it was white) and remove the lighting.


17. Ikkiesvooreerlijk.eu - 'ivoteforhonesty.eu'. Founded by Michel van Hulten (84), junior minister between 1972-1977. He was a member of KVP, PPR, D66, GroenLinks, PvdA and 50Plus. Policies: Pro European integration, anti corruption

18. Partij voor de Dieren - Party for the Animals. Represented in the national parliament since 2006, the party came close to a seat in the European Parliament in 2004 (3.2%) and 2009 (3.5%). At the moment the party again hovers around the threshold of 3.85%.

19. Aandacht en Eenvoud - 'Attention & Simplicity'. No idea about their policies.

Also a 20th party applied, "Vrouwenpartij" (Party for women), a feminist party. It was refused, because the €11.250 deposit was not paid. It has announced that it will appeal, because according to the party, a deposit was unconstitutional.

[freek]

It's not clear to me why GroenLinks still exists as a party.

Yes, most of its former voters have switched to SP, PvdD or D66. The party tries to be the sensible leftwing opposition.

Since the party seems to be nearly dead now, it will probably be around 10-15% in the polls in a few years.

[freek]

A poll for the Netherlands by TNS Nipo:


(first column for 2009 is the last poll before the elections, the 2nd one is the actual result). Huge differences between polls and actual result for PvdA and PVV.

In their poll for national parliament, D66 is the 'largest' party. The party is too pro-European for some of its voters.


(number of seats, for percentages divide by 1.5)

[freek]

I'd fully expect the UK, rather than the Netherlands, to publish their results in advance this time around, just to... troll the Commission, you know.

Dutch weblog GeenStijl started a campaign where people could apply to monitor the count in their local polling station, since polling stations by law have to announce their counting result after the count has finished, i.e. Thursday night.

The weblog intends to publish all these results directly after receiving them.

I have thought about applying, but I noticed that someone else already for applied for the polling station where I am volunteering during the day. I hope he/she turns up, it would be the first time in 5 years to have an observer during the count.

About 1,000 volunteers have already applied (there are ~10,000 polling stations).

http://www.geenstijl.nl/eu2014/map/

[freek]

Expected result for the Netherlands by Peil.nl/Maurice de Hond (based on latest poll for the Second Chamber):



'kleine kans' = small chance, 'grote kans' = large chance.

[freek]

I was a volunteer at the polling station again, my shift ended at 1630. Polls close at 2100, I will have to go back then for the count.

Turnout was pretty low in our station, comparable/lower than in 2009, and about half of the turnout for Second Chamber elections. We opened 5 minutes late, the city had forgotten to deliver the ballots. .

[freek]

I was a volunteer at the polling station again, my shift ended at 1630. Polls close at 2100, I will have to go back then for the count.

Turnout was pretty low in our station, comparable/lower than in 2009, and about half of the turnout for Second Chamber elections. We opened 5 minutes late, the city had forgotten to deliver the ballots. .

Pretty miffed I didn't get my stempas in the post . When I went to drop off my application to my commune the woman seemed totally clueless to the fact that I could vote in the Netherlands as an EU citizen.

Looks like I'll only be voting for regional and federal on Saturday. A shame because the political parties on offer in the Netherlands are more interesting and varied.

Anyway, there is a programme on dutch TV that will release exit poll results from 40,000 members in order to analyse the political scene. Seems like a dick move to me. How can you possibly determine how a country has voted through 40.000 random people. Almost a ludicrous as polls.

Did you register yourself?

http://www.alkmaar.nl/gemeente/webcms/site/gemeente/actueel/files/p_70122.pdf