EP elections 2014

[MaxQue]

I highly doubt the FN would ally itself with open neo-Nazis like XA or Jobbik. As much as their "modernization" and so on is based on hot air, they need to maintain the public appearance of a respectable right-populist/nationalist right party rather than an extremist far-right party which allies with neo-Nazis. Under Panzerdaddy, they probably wouldn't have cared as much, but Panzergirl and her apparatchiks care.

Is that really based on thin air? Marine Le Pen doesn't give me a neo-nazi vibe, unlike her father. I doubt she is one.

[MaxQue]

Then, in their crazy momentum, they refused to ratify Tsipras as EU-wide candidate, as they want to propose... Mélenchon for this !

How surprising from his personality cult!

[MaxQue]

In Denmark, a referendum on the Unified Patent Court will be held in conjunction with the EP election at the 25 May. A 5/6 majority is needed in parliament if sovereignty is to be transferred without an referendum. Neither DF nor Enhedslisten could be convinced to vote in favour, so now we will have a referendum. The no-side not only needs the majority of the votes in the referendum, they should also make up at least 30 % of all eligible voters. If both of these requirements are not reached, sovereignty will be transferred.

The latest polling showed these results, but not much debate has happened yet:
Do you think there should be a referendum about this question?
40.6 % yes, 43.5 % no, 15.9 % don't know

How would you vote in such a referendum?
41.7 % yes, 19.5 % no, 12.7 % blank vote, 26.1 % don't know.

I think it will be hard for the no-side to reach the required number of votes, but it is always difficult to poll referendums before the real debate about the question. It is hard to predict how the referendum will affect the EP elections. It already seems that the yes-parties will use this to depict DF as someone who just says no to everything European out of principle, even when it's something which makes life easier for corporations and innovators. DF's main argument so far is the parasite argument: Danish companies would be able to get the unified patent covering the other countries anyway and then we can keep our own patents in Denmark and decide about them ourselves. Enhedslisten/The People's movement against the EU have mainly talked about the risk of many more software patents being given in a Common Unified Patent.

The no side needs at least 30% of Registered Voters? Why not the yes side?

One can assume it's because the Yes got a majority in Parliament. Not the 5/6 needed to by-pass the referendum, but over 1/2.

[MaxQue]

Have to wonder which the Tories would prefer: third and UKIP coming first, or third and Labour coming first...

I suppose than members would prefer UKIP coming first, but leadership would prefer Labour coming first.

[MaxQue]

For Luxemburg, I suppose using the October elections result is better than nothing.

[MaxQue]

I hope AfD goes wirth Tories! Might UPyD try to get something togheter with M5S? Like the radical group in 1994-1999?

Why an italian protest party would ally with castillan supremacists?

[MaxQue]

(still can't post url...)

It takes 20 posts to post an url.

[MaxQue]

Some news from Greece

What's up with the LAOS (and its two MEPs)?

They polled 1.3% at last Greek election and seems to have faded.

[MaxQue]

BREAKING: German Constitutional Court rules against 3% threshold.

Which means there will be no threshold at all for winning seats in Germany in this election. Good news for FDP, Pirates, NPD, Free Voters, and possibly the Animal Protection Party.

Why the hell is the German CC so prone to judicial activism? From what I know, it's clearly stepping beyond its domain of competence (see also the Euro-related rulings).

I fail to see how someone could be out of competence of the highest court.
Sure, you're used to powerless French courts, but that's precisely what courts shouldn't do (be infeoded to government).

[MaxQue]

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They could do that as BVG has not ruled that out (they stated, it would be constitutional in the last decision, I don't know if they mentioned it, this time, but they won't be able to implement it for 2014, because the nomination process, which is defined by law, has already begun.

OK, I guess they will have it in line for 2019 then.

I can see that CSU proposed constituencies when the 3%-hurdle was introduced. They are open to both single-member and multimember:

"Der Parteitag fordert die CSULandesgruppe im Deutschen Bundestag auf, darauf hinzuwirken, dass für die Europawahlen Wahlkreise eingeführt werden. Denkbar sind sowohl Einpersonen als auch Mehrpersonenwahlkreise, wobei bei letzteren wegen der Eigenständigkeitder CSU als bayerische Partei darauf zu achten ist, dass Bayern entweder ein eigener Wahlkreis bleibt oder in mehrere Wahlkreise, die die Grenzen des Freistaates respektieren, eingeteilt wird."
http://www.csu.de/uploads/csucontent/121020_beschlussbuch_03.pdf

Matthias Groote, MEP from SPD, also seems to prefer constituencies now. He tweeted today: "Jetzt ist eine Reform des Europawahlgesetzes angesagt. Wahlkreise müssen kommen!"

Single-member is forbidden by European rules.

[MaxQue]

Ukip 6% (+1)
Liberal Dems 5% (-7)[/b]

Which would probably give a result of three Nats, 2 Labourites and 1 Tory.

Greens not included but the 7.3% that they got last time would get the last seat if the SNP don't quite make it to three

The Greens are at 4%, sorry.

[MaxQue]

Through what list was she elected to the EP? Hans Peter Martin, or what?

3rd of Martin's list.

[MaxQue]

Wikipedia actually says that Ferdinand would be next in line after his father - not his older sister.

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I'm not exactly sure why it is that way, because we once had a Queen already with Maria Theresia.

The Pragmatic Sanction of 1713 states that male descendants take priority; daughters can only succeed to the throne if there are no sons or grandsons.

It's a highly theoretical discussion, though. If Austria was to revert to a monarchy, a national assembly would possibly define new rules of succession.

I doubt than a male priority would be very popular these days (see the Commonwealth which was ready in case George was a girl).

[MaxQue]

6 France

Are there appointments between the UMP and the UDI on the right and between PS, PCF, FG and EELV on the left ? Is Phillippe de Villiers and the MPF competing again? If not, is he recommending a party (UMP, DLR, FN)?

The only alliance will be MoDem and UDI, under the name "Alternative".

[MaxQue]

In what recent polls did Forza Italia tank? The ones I've seen here show them not far behind PD (not counting FDI's numbers which almost have them tied). Unless FI was recently leading PD...

Last I seen were 10 points behind PD and behind M5S.

[MaxQue]

It's just a fact that for many years far-left rhetorics have too often (not always) relied on class struggle, proletariate etc.

Are you inferring that there is no class struggle ongoing today ? And that there is no proletariate in our society ? Of course, the proletariate doesn't think of itself as such, and only the dominant class is conscious that there is indeed a class struggle, and that they are winning it. But still, these words may be dated, but the concepts are still very much current.

Well, from what I hear from various far-left people, the discourse is often very outdated and not very useful might be true, but I don't see a middle person being convinced by it.

Politics isn't only about ideas, it's also about being to convince people.

[MaxQue]

On an unrelated note, why is PASOK calling itself L'Ulivo or whatever now?

Apparently, it's an alliance with small social-democrat parties for elections (probably inspired by Italians).

[MaxQue]

The Austrian test is unsurprising, except BZÖ.

EUAnders 86
Grüne 62
BZÖ 59
NEOS 56
SPÖ 51
EU-Stop 47
ÖVP 45
REKOS 37
FPÖ 35

[MaxQue]

Electio:

GUE-NGL: 76
Greens-EFA: 74
S&D: 72
ALDE: 52
EFD: 47
EPP: 46
ECR: 24

Strangely, in France it's saying than PS is my best fit (UK, Plaid Cymru, SF, Greens; Italy, PD; Spain, ICV (Catalogna Greens), Pirates, PSOE; Germany, Linke; Austria, Green).

Worryingly, my best fit is Jiri Mastalka from the KSCM (the unreformed communists from Czech Republic), Christian Noiret (Wallonia Greens), Delfina Rossi (ICV), Edit Herczog (Hungary Socialists and Raul Romeva i Rueda (ICV)
The worst fits are all in UK Conservatives (worst being Timothy Kirkhope).

[MaxQue]

UKIP and TUV have a connection, which would make a connection to the DUP very unlikely. (TUV split from the DUP as a more extreme Protestant party.)

Really, European party groups are perhaps the least important issue in the Northern Ireland elections. Judging by party groups, you would think Northern Ireland is a mix of extreme socialists and Eurosceptics. It's not really.

I wish NI21 (which I would consider voting for if I lived there) would join EPP just so there would be a party in the UK affiliated with Europe's largest party

There is non-negligible odds than S&D becomes the largest group instead of EPP.

[MaxQue]

Why do so many Americans love Farage? I always thought his Little-Englander anti-immigration schtick was pretty much limited in appeal to Europeans. It seems odd that I see a lot of Yanks who love him. Not criticizing you, just a slightly bemusing trend I've noticed.

http://www.euractiv.com/sections/eu-elections-2014/martin-schulz-launches-european-campaign-paris-301660

Schulz campaign launches which includes a pan-European minimum wage. I'm guessing one tied to local standards of living, otherwise it would be a bit, erm, dramatic.

A weak EU is better for the USA.

[MaxQue]

Quite wierdly, PVV MEP Laurence Strassen is ruuning in South-East England for a fringe eurosception party.

[MaxQue]

So, barring some big turn around, will this be the first election since 1994 that the center-right coalition isn't in the plurality?

What the hell are you talking about? There have been plenty of elections which the right lost.
[/quote]

In fact, right won all European elections. Left never won any.

[MaxQue]

Deutschland:

Piraten 76.3
Linke 75
Grüne 69.7
SPD 63.2
FW, FDP 61.8
CDU 59.2
CSU, AfD 56.6
NPD 44.7
REP 30.3

Other small parties are between all those.
Gutted than Piraten is first.

Osterreich:

Grüne: 236
Eu Anders: 214
SPÖ: 149
NEOS: 36
BZÖ: 22
ÖVP: -17
FPÖ: -85
REKOS: -181

[MaxQue]

The biggest source of Euroscepticism is the German Empress, Angela Merkel, which is forcing her might to all Europe. To fix Europe, real statemen and women willing to stand up against Merkel and to not fold against her.