EP elections 2014

[justfollowingtheelections]

Some news from Greece:  the two parties in the government alliance, ND and PASOK agreed to replace the candidate lists and allow the voters to determine which candidates are elected.  Each party will be allowed to have up to 42 names on their ballot.  One of the reasons they are doing that is because they have a thin majority and they're worried that if some of the candidates are disappointed by their position on the list, the government would collapse.  The other reason is because they want to raise interest in the elections.

There is a good chance PASOK may not even have its own ballot and be replaced by the "58" as they call themselves, a movement that is attempting to rebuild the center-left movement.  They hope that the public will be more willing to vote for a new party, but from what I have seen in the polls most center-left voters are rather disappointed in the "58" since they're pretty much all PASOK members.  The "58" tried to work with DIMAR who refused to because they don't want to be associated with PASOK.  DIMAR however will be joining Schulz's S&D group if they manage to elect an MEP.  To be honest, I'm not sure any of PASOK, DIMAR or the "58" will surpass the 3% threshold.

SYRIZA leader Tsipras has been touring Europe to generate interest in his candidacy for president of the EU Commission with the EUL-NGL party.  In Italy he has already won the support of SEL (Sinistra Ecologia Liberta) and he also had a meeting with PM Letta.

The Independent Greeks have joined ECR but I think they will struggle to elect an MEP.

Golden Dawn is also very active and they have been campaigning with Nick Griffin of the BNP (probably a bad idea for both of them).  They will probably try to form an alliance with various far-right groups deemed too extreme by Le Pen's EAF group but I don't think they will succeed.

The Green Party MEP removed his name from the list of candidates after coming second in the primary and asked Cohn-Bendit to play a more active role in the internal elections.  I don't think they stand much of a chance to elect an MEP again since most of their voters have turned to SYRIZA.

There are a few liberal parties that cooperated in the 2012 elections (Drasi led by MEP and former ND member Skylakakis, Dimiourgia Xana or Recreate which is more libertarian, and the Liberal Alliance led by gay activist Vallianatos) but after their failure to win any seats in 2012 I doubt they will work together again.

Another minor party that might surprise is the anti-capitalist ANTARSYA which appeals to leftists who feel that SYRIZA is becoming too centrist.

In the most recent poll (which probably doesn't mean much since there 2 or 3 polls released every week in Greece) the results were:
ND (EPP) 19%
SYRIZA (EUL-NGL) 20%
PASOK (S&D) 5.3%
Indep. Greeks (ECR) 4.5%
GD 7%
DIMAR (S&D) 3.5%
KKE (EUL-NGL) 7%
ANTARSYA 1.8%
Union for the Homeland and the people (a vehicle for conservative MP Polydoras who left ND recently) 1.3%
NEEL (a vehicle for former PASOK MP Loverdos)  1%
Others 3.7%
Undecided/Not voting 25.1%

The number of MEPs elected by party according to this poll would be:

EUL-NGL 9 (SYRIZA 7 + KKE 2)
EPP (ND) 6
S&D 3 (PASOK 2 + DIMAR 1)
ECR (Ind. Greeks) 1
Golden Dawn 2 (GD is part of the European National Front a group which includes the Nat. Democratic Party of Germany, the Falange in Spain and other similar groups, but as I said they will really struggle to find enough partners to form an alliance).

[justfollowingtheelections]

SYRIZA leader Tsipras has been touring Europe to generate interest in his candidacy for president of the EU Commission with the EUL-NGL party.  In Italy he has already won the support of SEL (Sinistra Ecologia Liberta) and he also had a meeting with PM Letta.

Will Tspiras be on the list himself, and if so when elected will he take up a MEP seat instead of his current seat in the Greek parliament?

I don't know, but I doubt it.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I was watching an interview Nigel Farage gave to some italian media where they asked him if he would ally with Grillo.  He didn't say yes, but he praised Grillo and said he would be welcome in London.  With Lega Nord joining Le Pen's group, I suppose Farage would have to find new allies.  I'm not sure if Grillo would be interested in working with him, but Farage said that he would be fine working with people who have different approaches to politics, because what is right for one country isn't necessarily right for others.

Also, Martin Schulz is under fire for a speech he gave at Israel's Knesset where he criticized the treatment of Palestinians.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Also, Martin Schulz is under fire for a speech he gave at Israel's Knesset where he criticized the treatment of Palestinians.

Under fire? Jewish House left his speech when he talked about a young Palestinian he had met that complained about the average Palestinian only having access to 17 l of drinking water per day, compared to 70 l per average Israeli. Seems to me they intended from he beginning to set up some kind of scandal (after all, Schulz is German), and this was the best occasion they could find. In fact, after having looked at some excerpts from Schulz' speech, it was far more moderate than resolutions on Israel passed by the EP.

I don't think you know what under fire means.  Either that or you are too sensitive.

Anyway, that's how it was reported in the international media :shrugs:

[justfollowingtheelections]

Regarding the Potami, their leader is a well-known journalist who has made some really interesting documentaries such as this one: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1n5ACB32ak (a translation can be found in the comments).

He always carries a backpack and never wears a suit which obviously adds to his appeal.  He claims that he's neither on the left nor the right, but has "stolen" ideas both from the left and liberal ideologies.  He doesn't really take a stance on the memoranda, but he wants a smaller parliament. 
Regarding the EU elections, the reason he is not a candidate is because he feels he's not the right person for the job since he doesn't speak any foreign languages.  The party hasn't decided yet which EU group they will join but Theodorakis has said that while he is not eurosceptic at all he is not interested in joining EPP, S&D or ALDE because it seems to him they're more invested in sustaining the Brussels bureaucracy then improving the lives of european people.  My guess is that he will join the Greens.

A poll I saw published by the University of Macedonia (and which might be more credible since it wasn't ordered by the media has them very close to 2nd place:


And it looks like they're drawing votes mostly from DIMAR and ANEL:

[justfollowingtheelections]

Most polls show that the party of the European Left and ALDE will battle for 3rd place.  My guess, based on the polls I have seen is that the Left is the favorite right now.  

[justfollowingtheelections]

Most polls show that the party of the European Left and ALDE will battle for 3rd place.  My guess, based on the polls I have seen is that the Left is the favorite right now.  

Every poll I've seen seem not to take into account the regional constituencies in France and assume that the FG here will take 7 seats. It won't, for the moment. 4 or 5 at best. I'm pretty sure polls are greatly overestimating the final EUL-NGL tally. And Greens will be decimated, so it's a pretty safe bet for the moment that ALDE will remain 3d group.

You're probably right.  I estimated the number of seats each group would have based on polls but I didn't take into account the different election systems each country uses.

[justfollowingtheelections]

THe only party seemingly doing this is ironically the most dogmatic, GUE.

Well, f[inks] you too.

How is GUE the most dogmatic ? How is EPP not dogmatic ? What's your problem ?

Look at my pseudonym before you start getting angry. The fact is though the traditional far left in Western Europe has for years been stuck to extreme levels of Orthodox Marxism while all the others have basically followed the neo-liberal status quo, making it up as they go along. Its only now that we're actually seeing a radical left that doesn't sound like a broken record from the Cold War and has adapted its programme do the current situation.

I actually think Tsipras and the radical left have an economic platform that makes a lot of sense and could be the only thing possible in Europe from going into 90s Japan-mode. I just don't like Stalinists, and I don't think Marx's dual class system applies to modern society, particularly with the rise of informational capitalism and 1950s welfare economics forming a middle class. That is what i find dogmatic about the GUE group. I still might vote for them.

I think it's completely ridiculous to accuse GUE of having anything to do with Stalinists.  Tsipras in particular comes from a party that was created as an alternative to soviet-style communism and that was long before the USSR collapsed (Synaspismos which later became SYRIZA was created specifically because its members opposed the allegiance of the communist party to the USSR).  He and most of the young European leftists are children of the Seattle-Genoa protests which have absolutely nothing to do with what you describe above.  With the exception of E. Germany, where I will agree the former communists are part of Die Linke, in most eastern European countries, once the regimes collapsed, most of them joined parties that would later become members of the socialist group or even the EPP (whatever suited them in order to remain in power).

[justfollowingtheelections]

It will probably change names again to incorporate the ideologies of the very different parties that will attempt to work together.  When the only thing that unites these parties is euroscepticism (a negative ideology in the sense that it is nothing more but a reaction to federalism) it is hard to form a long-lasting alliance.
I guess a lot will depend on how well the UKIP does in the elections.  If they increase their strength, they will probably be able to attract of number of eurosceptic parties and form a new group.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Since many have been asking about the Potami party in Greece and which europarliament group they will join, I thought I should mention that their leader met with Martin Schulz and Guy Verhofstadt and will meet with the Greens as well.  They will most likely ally with one of those 3 groups.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Would it not be suicide to sit in the same group as toxic PASOK?

I don't think it would really matter.

Theodorakis by the way traveled economy class to Brussels.  If this picture means anything, he is probably closer (at least ideologically) to the Socialists.

He did however ask that whatever group he joins puts some resistance to Merkel-EPP dictated policies.  Guy Verhofstadt also wrote him a letter explaining why he should join ALDE.  But Theodorakis won't make a decision until after the elections.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Off course he want tell. IF het old that he was goding the join the socialists he would loose the ND-voters that he ha got. I think this is hypochratic not to tell and then say he is "different"...

Well I don't know.  One could also say that it's arrogant to join a group when there are no guarantees you will elect an MEP.  But he only met with the socialists, the liberals and the greens, so it's down to those 3 groups.

[justfollowingtheelections]

There is also the electio site, which allows you to vote on 20 of the most important votes from the EP 2009-2014. Afterwards you can see which MEP, candidate, party or group you agree with the most.

http://www.electio2014.eu/

My best match is Anna Ibrisagic (81 %) from the Swedish Moderates, and my best Danish match is the Conservative Bendt Bendtsen (80 %). My worst match is Marie-Christine Vergiat from the French Front de Gauche (13 %), and my worst Danish match is Søren Søndergaard from the People's Movement against the EU (23 %).

Groupwise the match is:
ALDE 70 %
EPP 61 %
ECR 59 %
S&D 50 %
EFD 43 %
Greens/EFA 41 %
GUE-NGL 30 %

I did this too.  My best matches:
Greens 48%, S&D 46, GUE 44, EPP 38, ALDE 31, ECR 29, EFD 27.

By country:
Austria: Europa anders
Belgium: Parti socialiste (S&D) and "Stand up for the United States of Europe" (tie)
Bulgaria: Coalition for Bulgaria (S&D)
Croatia: Hrvatska seljačka stranka (EPP)
Cyprus: Democratic Party (S&D)
Czech Rep: Česká strana sociálně demokratická (S&D)
Denmark: Socialdemokratiet (s&d)
Estonia: Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
Finland: Vasemmistoliitto (GUE)
France: Mouvement Démocrate (ALDE)
Germany: Piratenpartei
Greece: Ecologist Greens (Greens)
Hungary: Magyar Szocialista Párt (s&d)
Ireland: Fianna Fáil Party (ALDE)
Italy: Italia dei Valori - Lista Di Pietro (ALDE)
Latvia: Par cilvēka tiesībām vienotā Latvijā (Greens)
Lithuania: Lietuvos Valstiečių ir Žaliųjų Sąjunga and Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) (tie)
Luxembourg: Piratepartei
Malta: Partit Laburista (s&d)
Netherlands: Partij van de Arbeid (s&d)
Poland: Unia Pracy (s&d)
Portugal: LIVRE (Greens)
Romania: Partidul România Mare
Slovakia: 3-way tie between S&D, ALDE and NI
Slovenia: Solidarnost
Spain: Iniciativa per Catalunya Verds (Greens)
Sweden: Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens)
UK: Plaid Cymru - Party of Wales (Greens)

[justfollowingtheelections]

Proof that CDU and SPD have become virtually indistinguishable:




On the left, an CDU election poster: "So that Europe creates more jobs and growth."

On the right, an SPD election poster: "A Europe of GROWTH, not one of stagnancy."

I'm not disagreeing, but pretty much every party in the world says those things "growth, jobs blablablah"

[justfollowingtheelections]

No everybody. These ones hit them out the park.

Wow.  I think Farage is a really inelligent man, but seeing this and hearing his opinions on climate change, I have to say that he's just as bad as U.S. Republicans.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Why do so many Americans love Farage? I always thought his Little-Englander anti-immigration schtick was pretty much limited in appeal to Europeans. It seems odd that I see a lot of Yanks who love him. Not criticizing you, just a slightly bemusing trend I've noticed.

http://www.euractiv.com/sections/eu-elections-2014/martin-schulz-launches-european-campaign-paris-301660

Schulz campaign launches which includes a pan-European minimum wage. I'm guessing one tied to local standards of living, otherwise it would be a bit, erm, dramatic.

If it's tied to local standards of living, then it's not really a pan-European minimum wage.  To make it pan-European, all countries in the Eurozone at least should have the same minimum wage.

Also, to answer your question about why many Americans like Farage, well his rhetoric is rather moderate compared to what some members of the U.S. House of Representatives say on a daily basis.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Lega at 7%. Oh God.

Well, they got 10,2% in 2009, so why "Oh God"? And as i said, most polls have them about 5-5,5%. By now, the results of this survey with 7% for LN and above 4% for Melonis FdI-AN are exeptional. Let us wait and see whether solidifies. The more intresting fact is, that LN, FdI and M5S are strongly and FI and Tsipras to a certain degree against the Euro, which means that combined more than 57% of the Italians will vote against the Euro.

Tsipras himself is not against the Euro at all.  He's actually a federalist that wants full integration and is in favor of eurobonds.  I'm not sure if SEL and the other parties in the alliance share that opinion (someone more familiar with Italian politics could answer that)

[justfollowingtheelections]

I wish I could vote for the Animal Protection Party.

[justfollowingtheelections]

IMO, Martin and Guy were the cleear winners. I'd give an advantadge to the 1st., but that may be just because I like him more.

Keller wasn't bad either, but it's pretty clear that Juncker had the worst performance.

And yet he will be the next president because that's what TPTB want.  No wonder eurosceptics are gaining ground.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I just watched the debate, and I have quite a few things to say.

On one hand it is kind of funny seeing these candidates and the interviewers take the debate so seriously, when no one in Europe cares about the EU elections, and no one actually votes for these candidates.  But nonetheless, I felt that the debate was far more interesting than the U.S. presidential election debates.

I thought it was obvious that Schulz and Verhofstadt (and to a lesser extent Keller) benefited from being MEPs and being used to debating european issues.  Juncker on the other hand has never been in the EU parliament.  His claim to fame is being the PM of a tax haven (to quote Keller) with less than a million people for about 20 years or so.  That's hardly good enough to compete with master debaters such as the other two who have been going head-to-head every day with the likes of Nigel Farage.
Tsipras would surely have the same problem (from what I read Tsipras was informed too late of the event and had a prior commitment in Portugal that could not be canceled) which I think we will see in the other debates.

I was rather surprised at how anti-American all 4 candidates sounded.  I expected them to be anti-Russian but not anti-American.  Verhofstadt is right of course when he says that Europe is lagging when it comes to technology (since the internet is pretty much run by American companies) but IMO that's mostly because English is the international language.

By the way I didn't have a problem with Juncker's English.  He appeared to understand everything he was asked, and I understood everything he said.  I thought it was interesting though that there were times when everyone seemed to be attacking him.  Verhofstadt was right to point out that the EPP is flirting with the far-right with members such as Fidesz (I won't even comment on Berlusconi because it's totally ridiculous that he's campaigning as an anti-Merkel candidate while a member of the same coalition).  I also thought it was interesting that he appeared to be the only one against immigration (and to be honest, while I don't believe in borders or nationalities and I think all countries should have open borders, his position seemed to be the most reasonable given the fact that anti-immigration sentiments are really strong in Europe).

IMO the winner was Schulz.  Verhofstadt was clearly the most intelligent man in the room, but talking out of turn all the time was disrespectful IMO.  Keller I thought was good.  I was actually surprised by how left wing Schulz appeared to be.  But again, none of this really matters.  No one in Poland, or Slovakia or Ireland or any other country will vote based on what they saw here.  EU elections are still however fascinating and by far the most interesting elections in the world.  I kind of wish they would take place more often.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Tsipras doesn't speak that good English anyway. He has more to gain from not going to these debates. If he presents himself as the anti-establishment candidate who refuses to go to these processions of 4 centrist parties arguing over which coloured neo-liberalist Eurofederalism they want. That's his rhetoric anyway.

Well apparently he will participate in the other debates, but I agree that it probably won't do him much good since he doesn't have much experience on European issues.  I kind of feel the Eur. Left should have gone with 2 candidates like the Greens did.

[justfollowingtheelections]

There was another debate today:  http://euranetplus-inside.eu/big-crunch-presidential-debate-on-april-29/

[justfollowingtheelections]

So who's favored at this point, EPP or S&D? I would imagine S&D would be better positioned, seeing as they lost last time around and Europe hasn't been too fond of incumbent governments lately.

This isn't really the most scientific method to measure the number of seats each party will get, but by looking at the polls in each country, I got the following numbers:

EPP 203
S&D 188
ALDE 60
EUL-NGL 56
Greens-EFA 39
ECR 38
EFD 31

Also
EAF 27

I would be really surprised if Juncker isn't the next president of the EU Commission.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Interesting story:
http://www.nltimes.nl/2014/04/30/rutte-threatened-euro-exit-2012-van-rompuy/

[justfollowingtheelections]

That's so stupid.  Renzi is if anything the anti-Merkel.

The only solution for the EU elections to become relevant is to have european parties on the ballots instead of national parties and the same election system in all countries.