EP elections 2014

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UK poll

UKIP 27% (+11%)
Labour 23% (+7%)
Tories 21% (-7%)
Liberals 18% (+4%)

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It seems there was another Survation poll this month too, to add them in:

ComRes
Jan:
LAB 35% (+19), UKIP 23% (+6), CON 22% (-6), LDEM 8% (-6), GRN 5% (-3), Others 8% (-9)
May:
UKIP 27% (+11), LAB 23% (+7), CON 21% (-7), LDEM 18% (+4), GRN 5% (-3), Others 6% (-11)

Survation:
Jan:
LAB 31% (+15), CON 24% (-4), UKIP 22% (+5), LDEM 11% (-3), GRN 6% (-2), Others 6% (-11)
May:
LAB 31% (+15), UKIP 30% (+13), CON 20% (-8), LDEM 8% (-6), GRN 6% (-2), Others 5% (-12)

YouGov:
LAB 36% (+20), CON 24% (-4), UKIP 19% (+2), LDEM 12% (-2), GRN 6% (-2), Others 3% (-14)

lol

Averaging them you get: Con 22%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem 13%, UKIP 25%, Greens 6%, Others 4%

which would give you: Lab 25, UKIP 18, Con 16, Lib Dem 7, SNP 2, Green 2

I take it Nick Griffin won't retain his seat?

Very unlikely.

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It seems there was another Survation poll this month too, to add them in:

ComRes
Jan:
LAB 35% (+19), UKIP 23% (+6), CON 22% (-6), LDEM 8% (-6), GRN 5% (-3), Others 8% (-9)
May:
UKIP 27% (+11), LAB 23% (+7), CON 21% (-7), LDEM 18% (+4), GRN 5% (-3), Others 6% (-11)

Survation:
Jan:
LAB 31% (+15), CON 24% (-4), UKIP 22% (+5), LDEM 11% (-3), GRN 6% (-2), Others 6% (-11)
May:
LAB 31% (+15), UKIP 30% (+13), CON 20% (-8), LDEM 8% (-6), GRN 6% (-2), Others 5% (-12)

YouGov:
LAB 36% (+20), CON 24% (-4), UKIP 19% (+2), LDEM 12% (-2), GRN 6% (-2), Others 3% (-14)

lol

Averaging them you get: Con 22%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem 13%, UKIP 25%, Greens 6%, Others 4%

which would give you: Lab 25, UKIP 18, Con 16, Lib Dem 7, SNP 2, Green 2

I take it Nick Griffin won't retain his seat?

That's correct. Both BNP seats are Labour gains.

I had my primary ballot for the North West's number two spot and all candidates were having fun grandstanding on the BNP issue.

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A new Austria poll shows that 64% of those polled can't name a single Austrian MEP.

Similar to along those lines:

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Not surprising, because nobody really cares about the EU or EU elections, other than us.

I can name 2 of mine and that's only because one of them's Nick Griffin.

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Pinch of salt required, probably, but a rather out of date (the fieldwork was done in November) Survation poll for the EU election in the UK has just been published, and the headline figures are Lab 32, UKIP 25, Con 24, LD 8, Greens 6, Others 6.

Also take this with a pinch of salt, but the Libs should surely be worried about the Greens finishing ahead of them in May, surely...

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Most give an intention to EU elections polls similar to their Westminster voting intention until like a month before the election.

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Have to wonder which the Tories would prefer: third and UKIP coming first, or third and Labour coming first...

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Have to wonder which the Tories would prefer: third and UKIP coming first, or third and Labour coming first...

I suppose than members would prefer UKIP coming first, but leadership would prefer Labour coming first.

I mean, which would be a less bad outcome for them, not necessarily which they'd prefer.

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From The Independent

"The UK Independence Party is on course to win the largest share of the vote in elections for the European Parliament in May, according to a ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday. Nigel Farage's Ukip is in the lead on 30 per cent, two points ahead of Labour, on 28 per cent, with the Conservatives in third place on 21 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on only 8 per cent.

Such a result would be a remarkable victory for a party with no MPs, and would probably double Ukip's 13 seats in the Brussels parliament that it won four years ago. It would be a bitter blow to David Cameron, whose party is already deeply anxious about the threat of Ukip eating into its vote in the general election next year."

Do you think Cameron would call a referendum if UKIP won?

No, at least not immediately. Cameron's strategy is to negotiate with the EU new conditions of UKs membership. He hopes to get support from Merkel and other Nordic and Central European countries, because these countries need the UK as a net contributor and ally against the Mediterranean countries. In his dreams, he wants then as a successful negotiator hold a referendum and tells the people: NOW you really can vote yes.

The polls are currently very volatile in the UK. But should UKIP really win the European elections, the conservative MPs will make in fear in their pants. Then they could require a referendum, or electoral pacts with UKIP. In both cases, the coalition with the EU-philic LibDems would burst. It is truly an open situation with many possible scenarios. But Camerons option is that he holds the Tories together somehow, the new double-sized UKIP group in the EP decomposes and produces dissenters and scandals, Cameron wins by a miracle the next election, is negotiating with the EU, holds the referundum and wins it all.

As a German euroskeptic who is not against the EU membership of Germany (but I demand strong reforms!), two hearts beat in my chest. I understand UKIP and the Majority of the Tories, but an EU without the UK would be a nightmare for Germany.

Well, if UKIP do win top the poll in May (and that's a really big if, since Labour will probably come first) then that would be very bad news for Cameron (which is why, in recent months, the Tories have been tacitly playing up chances of UKIP success to soften the blow if they really are that successful), and he would pretty much have to confirm that there would be a referendum post 2015 (assuming the Tories get back in, which is far from certain), so as to try and stick a pin in UKIP. But since he has already effectively promised a referendum, I doubt confirming it would do much to harm the current pact with the Lib Dems (who have a stake in prolonging this government for as long as possible).

Anyway, apparently UKIP have aligned themselves with Arise the Republic, a minor French Gaullist and eurosceptic party... Do they stand a chance of getting any MEP's?

Not really. From what I gather, Débout la République is a small-time personality cult for the party's leader, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan who ran for President in 2012 and got like 2% of the vote. Gaullism is a fractious, quelle surprise!

Their only pocket of support is in Essonne, which is just outside Paris where NDA is the Assembly Member and Mayor.

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No everybody. These ones hit them out the park.

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Quite wierdly, PVV MEP Laurence Strassen is ruuning in South-East England for a fringe eurosception party.

Bloody immigrants comin' over here, stealin' our jobs.

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Let's not forget that the EPP and the Socialists basically ran the place like a grand coalition until like 10 years ago.

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Sad times in Belgium as her largest party - the N-VA Flemish Nationalists - is being barred from the Greens EFA group. They've ruled out the far left, the eurosceptics and the far-right - I suppose either EPP or ALDE will let them in?

Why've they been thrown out?

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France poll CSA for BFM
FN 24%
UMP 22%
PS 20%
UDI 9%
FG 7.5%
EELV 7%

http://www.bfmtv.com/politique/europeennes-2014-fn-credite-24pour-cent-intentions-vote-761729.html

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UKIP surging

UKIP 31 (+4)
Labour 28 (-2)
Conservatives 19 (-3)
Lib 9 (-1)
Other 13 (+2)

I feel like the aftermath of such a terrible Tory result would cause an earthquake in the party. Their worst national showing in their history.

And before people say the Euros don't really matter, think of the Blairite coup that wasn't in 2009.

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Two new UK polls. This is gonna be a horrible result.

ComRes/ITV
UKIP 38 (+8)
Labour 27 (-3)
Tory 18 (-4)
LibDem 8 (nc)

TNS-BMRB
UKIP 36 (+7)
Labour 27 (-3)
Tory 18 (-3)
LibDem 10 (+1)

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Schulz, Juncker, neither of the two, do not know them

That many Germans know who either of them are!?

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YouGov/The Scum: Labour 29, UKIP 28, Con 22, LDem 9, Green 8, Nat 3, Others 2

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Basically polling for Euro elections is a total crapshoot. The poor polling firms don't even really know what they're measuring or how to do so. *shrugs*

They still have time to prove themselves. Polling in the last week or so in 2009 wasn't bad. The problem is that polling for Others is curiously low at this stage in the campaign.

I guess a chunk of that could be put down to the UKIP factor and 2009 being the expenses election.

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Anti-immigrant UKIP hiring immigrants, not British people, to deliver their leaflets.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/05/07/ukip-eastern-european-leaflet-distribution-_n_5279567.html?1399473398&utm_hp_ref=uk

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If they take True Finns and DPP, good luck tryna call UKIP out as extreme.

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YouGov/The Scum

Labour 28, UKIP 24, Con 22, Green 12, LDem 10, Nat 3, BNP 1

There now seems to be another YouGov poll with Lab 27 UKIP 27 Con 23 LD 10 Green 8.  Also (get those pinches of salt ready):

Survation: UKIP 32 Lab 27 Con 23 LD 9 Green 4
Opinium: UKIP 31 Lab 29 Con 20 LD 5 (!) Green 5
TNS: UKIP 31 Lab 28 Con 21 LD 7

Is the low benchmark for the LibDems in a national election the 6% they got in 1989?

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YouGov/The Scum

Labour 28, UKIP 24, Con 22, Green 12, LDem 10, Nat 3, BNP 1

There now seems to be another YouGov poll with Lab 27 UKIP 27 Con 23 LD 10 Green 8.  Also (get those pinches of salt ready):

Survation: UKIP 32 Lab 27 Con 23 LD 9 Green 4
Opinium: UKIP 31 Lab 29 Con 20 LD 5 (!) Green 5
TNS: UKIP 31 Lab 28 Con 21 LD 7

Is the low benchmark for the LibDems in a national election the 6% they got in 1989?

On an unrelated issue, why on earth was the Green vote so high back then?

Bit've a perfect storm for them I guess. The Alliance being in free fall, MT on the way out, poll tax, protest vote and Chernobyl only being a few years before.

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Essentially a tie. Which is certainly a very plausible outcome, although there are others. Would be quite the under-the-radar success for the Greens, either way.

Opinium has it at 32-25-21-6-6... so basically, we won't know until Sunday