EP elections 2014

[Antonio the Sixth]

Turnout in France is gonna be nightmarish. It was already abysmal back in 2009, and it can only go down from there...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hopefully the European left can recover somewhat from 2009's disaster and gain some leverage on EU policies. Won't change much, but still.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Unless something changed on this again, the PS has rejected (or maybe 'delayed' as seems to be the case with most of their reforms) switching back to a single national constituency (even if PRG and EELV wanted one). I guess we're stuck with these monstrosities for another go through.

Damn it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Great news if these numbers hold true (well, except for UKIP...).

[Antonio the Sixth]

I highly doubt the FN would ally itself with open neo-Nazis like XA or Jobbik. As much as their "modernization" and so on is based on hot air, they need to maintain the public appearance of a respectable right-populist/nationalist right party rather than an extremist far-right party which allies with neo-Nazis. Under Panzerdaddy, they probably wouldn't have cared as much, but Panzergirl and her apparatchiks care.

Is that really based on thin air? Marine Le Pen doesn't give me a neo-nazi vibe, unlike her father. I doubt she is one.

The Le Pens have never been really neonazis, they are more in the mold of the traditional French far-right, the tradition that goes from Maurras to Poujadism (Le Pen was first elected on Poujade's lists) and to "Algérie française" nuts. Traditionalism, anti-parliamentarism, reactionary positions on every possible issue, and "real France" rhetoric are its main components.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hi!

As I have udnerstand Germany will have a 3 % threshold in the EP Elections 2014.

This will imply that the extreme right will fail to get any sets in Germany, as might the eurosceptic AFD and The Pirates. My guess is that the AFD might get more than 3%.

Does anyone know if italy will keep its 4 %???

There hasn't been any change in legislation as far as I know.

[Antonio the Sixth]

BREAKING: German Constitutional Court rules against 3% threshold.

Which means there will be no threshold at all for winning seats in Germany in this election. Good news for FDP, Pirates, NPD, Free Voters, and possibly the Animal Protection Party.

Why the hell is the German CC so prone to judicial activism? From what I know, it's clearly stepping beyond its domain of competence (see also the Euro-related rulings).

[Antonio the Sixth]

BREAKING: German Constitutional Court rules against 3% threshold.

Which means there will be no threshold at all for winning seats in Germany in this election. Good news for FDP, Pirates, NPD, Free Voters, and possibly the Animal Protection Party.

Why the hell is the German CC so prone to judicial activism? From what I know, it's clearly stepping beyond its domain of competence (see also the Euro-related rulings).

I fail to see how someone could be out of competence of the highest court.
Sure, you're used to powerless French courts, but that's precisely what courts shouldn't do (be infeoded to government).

And you are used to the overly politicized and activist North American courts.

Does the German constitution say electoral thresholds are unconstitutional? Obviously not, since that would mean every single post-WW2 election was unconstitutional. The court's job is to enforce the constitution as it is written. Doing anything else means overstepping their boundaries.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I still think this goes a bit too far. Unless the constitution expressly states that electoral thresholds violate democratic principles and can be accepted only in specific cases, the Court is stretching things a bit, by inventing not only an unwritten rule but also a tailored exception to that rule that conveniently avoids it most problematic consequences. That doesn't strike me as very solid legally, nor can it be said to be a democratic imperative considering a 3% threshold is as benign as you can get.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A constitution is always supposed to only set the basic guidelines and not micromanage everything. It says nothing about how elections are held, the length of parliamentary terms and so forth. What you're calling for is a document that is god knows how many pages long because everything not included in it would be legal. I can't really see that working. The CC has simply made the case that seeing as the EP is already full of dozens of parties there is no need for a threshold whatsoever at the German level and that appears to be the logical conclusion...after all why is 3% better than 5% if the basic composition of the EP supports a wide array of parties to begin with?

A constitution should obviously contain a set of broad basic principles, as do most constitutions around the world. But yes, constitutions are also complex and very technical documents that have the difficult task of precisely delimiting the powers of each body. And I'd argue that they should be as precise and detailed as possible, precisely in order to leave little to no leeway to judges for interpretation. Since the judicial power is by nature undemocratic, it should be stripped of any opportunity to make an specific decision, and instead limit itself to ensuring that the letter of the law is respected.

[Antonio the Sixth]

lol

No he won't.

[Antonio the Sixth]

As always, the problem with this kind of remarks in this kind of context from this kind of politician in this kind of election campaign, the worst part is that the comment will very probably a) go on completely unnoticed b) make those who notice it more, instead of less, willing to vote for him...

No, the problem with this kind of remarks is that they are absolutely moronic, ridiculous, and offensive. Sorry dude but seriously, there is no excuse to make.

[Antonio the Sixth]

inb4 hot/not thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wee bit inbred for any risk of that, methinks.

Have these sorts of details ever stopped Atlas posters?

[Antonio the Sixth]

My Forecast

Probability to overcome the threshold of 4%

Democratic Party - 100,00%
5 Stars Movement - 100,00%
Forza Italia - 100,00%
New Centre Right - Udc - Populars - 98,44%
Lega Nord - 75,15%
Other Europe with Tsipras - 61,07%
Brothers of Italy - AN - 13,50%
European Choice (Civic Choice - Democratic Centre - Fare) - 0,93%
Greens - Green Italia - 0,00%
Italy of Values - 0,00%
Svp - 0,00%

Two decimals?

[Antonio the Sixth]

My Forecast

Probability to overcome the threshold of 4%

Democratic Party - 100,00%
5 Stars Movement - 100,00%
Forza Italia - 100,00%
New Centre Right - Udc - Populars - 98,44%
Lega Nord - 75,15%
Other Europe with Tsipras - 61,07%
Brothers of Italy - AN - 13,50%
European Choice (Civic Choice - Democratic Centre - Fare) - 0,93%
Greens - Green Italia - 0,00%
Italy of Values - 0,00%
Svp - 0,00%

Two decimals?

To be more precise

In Italy, the polls are reported with one decimal. In the United States, the majority of the polls are reported without decimals.

Yes, I now, but how do you get those numbers?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why Tsipras list is doing that badly?

For some reason the Italian hard-left has been utterly inaudible since the last elections (maybe because it's been overshadowed by the "New left" wing of the PD, ie Civati&co). Vendola himself isn't talking much and apparently he is expected to leave the stage soon. The main figures in that list are old intellectuals with little charisma.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is Europa Anders the German equivalent of the Tsipras List or something different altogether?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What test are you guys taking?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I got:

Saara Ilvessalo (G-FI) 90%
Tine Hördum (S-DE) 88%
Matthias Somers (S-BE) 88%
Michael CRAMER (G-DE) 86%

Greens/EFA 75%
S&D 70%
EUL/NGL 70%
ALDE 55%
EPP 53%
EFD 34%
ECR 25%


France (best party is PRG (lol), then EELV):

Corinne Bord (PS) 80%
Hélène Flautre (EELV) 79%
Daniel Cohn-Bendit (EELV) 78%
Nathalie Griesbeck (MoDem): 78%
Nicole Kiil-Nielsen (EELV) 78%

Italy (best party is the now defunct IdV, followed by Tsipras List):

Francesca Balzani (PD) 84%
Gianni Vattimo (IdV) 83%
Guido Milana (PD) 80%
Adriano Prospera (Tsipras) 79%
Giommaria Uggias (IdV) 78%


Best party by country:

Austria - Grünen 75%
Belgium - Stand Up for the United States of Europe (?) 96%
Bulgaria - National Movement for Stability and Progress 71%
Croatia - Hrvatska seljačka stranka 83%
Cyprus - Democratic Party 58%
Czech Rep. - CSSD 69%
Denmark - SFP 68%
Estonia - Social democrats 68%
Finalnd - Vihrea Liitto 74%
Germany - Piratenpartei 91%
Geece - Greens 80%
Hungary - MSZP 70%
Ireland - Labour 68%
Latvia - Par cilvēka tiesībām vienotā Latvijā 75%
Lithuania - Tėvynės Sąjunga – Lietuvos Krikščionys Demokratai 68%
Luxembourg - Piratepartei 85%
Malta - Labour 65%
Netherlands - PdvA 84%
Poland - Unia Pracy 65%
Portugal - Livre 100% (!)
Romania - Partidul România Mare 75%
Slovakia - Nový Parlament 75%
Slovenia - Solidarnost 80%
Spain - ICV 81%
Sweden - Piratpartiet 73%
UK - Green Party 75%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Lega at 7%. Oh God.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Lega at 7%. Oh God.

Well, they got 10,2% in 2009, so why "Oh God"? And as i said, most polls have them about 5-5,5%. By now, the results of this survey with 7% for LN and above 4% for Melonis FdI-AN are exeptional. Let us wait and see whether solidifies. The more intresting fact is, that LN, FdI and M5S are strongly and FI and Tsipras to a certain degree against the Euro, which means that combined more than 57% of the Italians will vote against the Euro.

Tsipras certainly isn't anti-Euro. Neither is M5S, really. And FI's stance is merely tactical and not even really anti-Euro either. Sorry to bust your fantasy, but that 57% is complete bullsh*t.

So, barring some big turn around, will this be the first election since 1994 that the center-right coalition isn't in the plurality?

What the hell are you talking about? There have been plenty of elections which the right lost.

[Antonio the Sixth]

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What the hell are you talking about? There have been plenty of elections which the right lost.
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In fact, right won all European elections. Left never won any.
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He said "the first election", without precising the type. And regardless, the left actually won the 2004 European elections.

[Antonio the Sixth]

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What the hell are you talking about? There have been plenty of elections which the right lost.

In fact, right won all European elections. Left never won any.

He said "the first election", without precising the type. And regardless, the left actually won the 2004 European elections.
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Wait what? The EPP won a plurality,  and EPP+ALDE+ID add to form a majority...
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This is not how coalitions work in Italy. Some parties in the left alliance were affiliated with ALDE or even EPP.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I clearly said "since 1994"

Right, because there was no other election in 1994 in Italy besides the EP one.