EP elections 2014

[YL]

I wouldn't have thought that any party with pretensions to respectability would ally with either Golden Dawn or Jobbik.  So I assume those two (assuming they get in) will be left as Non-Inscrits.

[YL]

Pinch of salt required, probably, but a rather out of date (the fieldwork was done in November) Survation poll for the EU election in the UK has just been published, and the headline figures are Lab 32, UKIP 25, Con 24, LD 8, Greens 6, Others 6.

[YL]

The whole poll:




The Telegraph claims that the Lib Dems will lose all their MEPs with such an result. I believe that sounds a bit odd. I know that their support is not that concentrated anywhere, but surely they would be able to a pick up a few seats with 9 %?

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10575868/Tories-to-come-third-in-Euro-elections-behind-Labour-and-Ukip-poll-warns.html

I don't know where they're getting that from.  The South East has 10 MEPs, and the Lib Dems did slightly better there in 2009 than nationally, so with 9% nationally they'd be almost certain to hold a seat there.  I think they'd probably also hold seats in London and the North West, and might well in the East of England and the South West.

[YL]

Additionally there is a Northern Ireland constituency with three seats and the usual local parties competing.

... which is elected by STV, rather than d'Hondt closed lists as in the rest of the UK.  Sinn Féin are GUE-NGL, the UUP are ECR, and the DUP are Non Inscrits.  (It's possible the result won't be one each for those three, but not very likely.)

[YL]

In Northern Ireland, the Alliance (ALDE) candidate says she favour a united Ireland, and unionists jump all over her. She won't win the EP seat now, but it might help her beat the SDLP (S&D) in Belfast South in 2015...

I don't think she was ever likely to get enough first preference votes to have a chance of snatching the third seat, much as I'd like it if she did.

[YL]

YouGov now seem to be asking Euro election questions in most of their UK polls.  The 26/27 March figures were Lab 28, UKIP 26, Con 24, LD 11, Green 7, SNP/Plaid 3.  The 27/28 March figures were Lab 32, Con 24, UKIP 23, LD 11, Green 5, SNP/Plaid 3.

The latter poll also had a UK EU membership question, and got in 42, out 36.

[YL]

The second round of Clegg v Farage is on BBC2 in just over half an hour.  I might see how long I can put up with them for...

[YL]

The second round of Clegg v Farage is on BBC2 in just over half an hour.  I might see how long I can put up with them for...

ICM and YouGov have polls on who "won".  ICM say Farage 69% Clegg 31% (not including don't knows) and YouGov say Farage 68% Clegg 27% (presumably including don't knows as that adds to 95%).

I wasn't very impressed by either of them.  As a left-liberal pro-European I'm never going to like Farage, but I thought Clegg was a shadow of his April 2010 self and rarely seemed convincing.  So I guess the poll figures make sense.

Anyone else watch it?

[YL]

Another UK poll dump:

ComedyResults: Lab 30, UKIP 30, Con 22, LD 8
Survation: Lab 34, UKIP 27, Con 21, LD 9
YouGov: Lab 30, UKIP 28, Con 23, LD 9

[YL]

Hmm... Surely Team Stronach's absence will help the FPÖ (and BZÖ).

I thought their support had sunk to such levels that it really won't make very much difference.

[YL]

New ICM/Grauniad poll for GB:

Labour 36%, Con 25%, UKIP 20%, LDem 6%, Greens 6%, Others 7%

This is considerably better for Labour and worse for UKIP than other recent polls for these elections.  Those other polls were online, which may have something to do with it. It's also awful for the Lib Dems.

[YL]

Let's see whether this works:

Party	Scot.	Wales	NE	Y & H	NW	E Mid	W Mid	SW	East	SE	London
Con	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Lab	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Lib Dem	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
UKIP	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Green	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
BNP	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
NO2EU	x	x		x	x		x		x		x
English Democrats			x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
An Independence from Europe			x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Harmony Party						x	x			x	x
Christian People's Alliance									x	x	x
Plaid Cymru		x
SNP	x
Yorkshire First				x
Socialist Equality					x
Socialist Labour		x
Socialist Party of GB		x								x
We Demand a Referendum							x
Britain First	x	x
Pirate					x
Liberty Great Britain										x
Peace Party										x
Roman Party.AVE										x
YOURvoice										x
4 Freedoms											x
Animal Welfare											x
Communities United											x
Europeans Party											x
National Health Action											x
National Liberal											x

Mistakes possible of course.

[YL]

Here's something about some of the less familiar party names on the UK ballot papers.  Most of these have no chance of actually winning a seat, though a handful of them might if we were using the German system.

NO2EU is a far-left anti-EU (duh) list associated with the RMT and the late Bob Crow.  They stood in 2009 under this name too.

An Independence from Europe is a UKIP splinter, based around Mike Nattrass MEP, who appear to be deliberately trying to be a spoiler for UKIP: they're even using the description "UK Independence Now" in some areas, which I'm surprised has been allowed.  The weird indefinite article in the name is presumably to get to the top of the ballot paper.

The Harmony Party appear to be yet another anti-EU, anti-immigration outfit.

Yorkshire First want a Yorkshire Parliament, and appear to be essentially a single issue party.  Their lead candidate was on the Lib Dem list last time, and is married to former Lib Dem MEP Diana Wallis: http://www.yorkshirefirst.org.uk/

We Demand a Referendum is the banner of Nikki Sinclaire MEP, who was elected as UKIP and fell out with them.  There had been reports of other candidates, but she's the only one.

Britain First are an Islamophobic far right party.

Liberty Great Britain also seem to be an Islamophobic right-wing outfit.

The Peace Party are a pacifist party with a councillor in Bradford (who defected from Labour) and who did surprisingly well in the Middlesbrough by-election: http://www.peaceparty.org.uk/

The Roman Party.AVE is a creation of a French bus driver who lives in Reading.

4 Freedoms are trying to be a UK branch of the European People's Party.

The Communities United Party are a local party in East London: http://www.communitiesunitedparty.com/

The Europeans Party is a pro-EU, anti-UKIP, party whose candidates are from all over the EU: https://www.facebook.com/europeansparty

The National Health Action Party oppose right-wing NHS "reform": http://nhap.org/

The National Liberals, in spite of their name, are yet another tedious far right outfit, also known as the "Third Way" but nothing to do with Tony Blair.

[YL]

VoteMatch results:

UK: Greens
France: Parti Européen/FdG
Spain: UPyD/X Party
Netherlands: D66/PvdA/GL/PvdD/SP
Germany: various far-left nutters
Austria: SPÖ/Greens/BZÖ/NEOS
Italy: Italia dei Valori/Tsipras
Czech Rep: ČSSD
Slovakia: European Democratic Party
Poland: Europa Plus
Latvia: Latvian Russian Union
Bulgaria: Coalition for Bulgaria
Greece: Olive Tree

A mix of quite plausible and utterly bizarre results.

[YL]

Constituency polling is terrible.

I know this is widely believed, but is it actually true?  It doesn't seem easy to find evidence of what the track record really is.

In 2010, I'm only aware of one example, which was a totally inaccurate poll in Norwich South.

In 2005, I'm aware of five polls, four of which were OK (Finchley & Golders Green, Shipley, Haltemprice & Howden, Cardiff North) and one (Ynys Môn, which I suspect isn't the easiest place to poll) was not so good.

That isn't a great track record, but it's only six polls.  We'll have rather more this time, but the results may say more about Survation than about constituency polling...

[YL]

Sorry to post a BNP video, but this has to be seen to be believed:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=am2-fVIkf8I

The BNP are going for the lucrative anti-hijab-penguins vote I see. Also Nick Griffin is ten feet tall, everybody else in the party is literally a cardboard cut out and the Fascists have well and truly run out of money/taste.

Did you encounter their van which was driving around Sheffield playing loud music last month?  Apparently they were playing their version of the Wurzels' Combine Harvester song in Hillsborough.

[YL]

The 4 Freedoms Party, set up to be a UK branch of the European People's Party, now have a website at http://www.4freedomsparty.eu/, though there isn't much there yet.  They're only standing in London, and I don't see them coming close to winning a seat.

On a different matter, how on the ball is the typical UKIP voter?  Because, in most English regions, when given their ballot paper they're going to find that the first party on the list is "An Independence from Europe - UK Independence Now", which is Mike Nattrass's splinter party; how many of them are going to fall for that?

And another YouGov poll for the UK, commissioned by the Green Party, says Lab 30 UKIP 27 Con 22 LD 9 Green 8.

[YL]

ICM poll for UK: Con 27, UKIP 26, Lab 24, Green 10, Lib Dem 7

Ugh... (well apart from the Greens doing OK)

[YL]

Two more UK polls.

YouGov: Lab 28 UKIP 25 Con 22 LD 10 Green 10
Opinium: UKIP 30 Lab 28 Con 22 LD 7 Green 5

[YL]

YouGov/The Scum

Labour 28, UKIP 24, Con 22, Green 12, LDem 10, Nat 3, BNP 1

There now seems to be another YouGov poll with Lab 27 UKIP 27 Con 23 LD 10 Green 8.  Also (get those pinches of salt ready):

Survation: UKIP 32 Lab 27 Con 23 LD 9 Green 4
Opinium: UKIP 31 Lab 29 Con 20 LD 5 (!) Green 5
TNS: UKIP 31 Lab 28 Con 21 LD 7

[YL]

YouGov's final poll for the UK says UKIP 27, Lab 26, Con 22, Green 10, LD 9.  They also have a seat projection, which is "Con 14-17, Lab 21-25, LD 2-3, UKIP 21-23, Green 3-6".

[YL]

I didn't vote UKIP...

As previously mentioned, at the top of the ballot paper the first option was "An Independence From Europe - UK Independence Now", so possibly some other people who were intending to didn't either.

I suspect early turnout will have been particularly slow here as there was torrential rain at 7am.

[YL]

A bit of expectation management for the Lib Dems in the Guardian.

Zero seats would really be worse for them than most people are predicting.  They should at least hold on in the South East.