EP elections 2014

[Jens]

My guess in Denmark (based on absolutely no polling)

A - Soc.Dem (PES) 3 (-1)
B - Soc.Lib  (ALDE) 1 (+1)
C - Con.       (EPP)  0 (-1)
F - SF            (EGP) 1 (-1)
I - LA             (?)     0
N - Peo.Mov  (GUE) 1 (0)
O - DF           (EFD)  2 (0)
V - Venstre  (ALDE) 5 (+2)

But things could go significantly different. SD could easily loose another mandate. C and SF is very hard to predict because they are struggling pollwise but both have well known frontrunners. Enhedslisten might run on its on list, which probably would kill People's Movement. Liberal Alliance might be able to gather the anti-EU rightwing vote, but they need a strong frontrunner. Venstre is looking really strong in national poolings, but they removed their strong frontrunner, Jens Rohde from the list do to internal struggle, so right now they are running nobodies

[Jens]

I don't know enough about the Green candidates, but it seems GPEW have threw their lot in with the Irish and Estonian Greens for German Ska Keller, and by extension, I can only presume is some harmless liberal? Hopefully someone here can clear it up for me? Seems the direction they've been headed for a while.

I'm not really sure what the definition "harmless liberal" entails?
The Danish Socialist People's Party is one of the most economically liberal green parties, and they supported Monica Frassoni, but I don't know exactly how much to put into that. If you look at the greenprimary-website you can see a few lines from each candidate, but to place them more detailed in an ideological sense is probably quite difficult without an extensive knowledge of the national green parties which they represent.

The key issues for each candidate on the website is broadly like this: José Bové = ecology, Monica Frassoni = democracy, Rebecca Harms = sustainibility and solidarity, and Ska Keller = internationalism and solidarity.

Well I'm thinking Irish and Estonian Greens - they're liberals with an environmental bent; compare that to Bové or SEL's Frassoni and it appeared the liberals were clustering around her. But then I hardly know a thing about any of them, really.

I'm surprised to hear you say SF are the most economically liberal of the green parties? I know the recent coalition has disillusioned their supporters to Enhedslisten, but it was at least built on a socialist base? I'd say they're clearly on the left.

Yeah I seen those. I was hoping for some of the posters of the candidates nationalities (as it appears Old Europe has) to weigh in and better inform us of their stances. 

It is the words of the current SF MEP Margrethe Auken. She says that the only areas in which she really has to check the Green Party voting lists are in trade and agriculture as SF is more economically liberal than most other green parties. The reforms they have agreed to while in government are very liberal as well: A lowering of the company tax and income taxes and cuts in unemployment benefits, student grants, early retirement benefits, public spending etc.

Really, Diouf!
Calling SF an economical liberal party (in the European sense). You might as well claim that Venstre is a leftwing party because their name translate into Left...
What Auken said is that she has to check the voting lists, because some Green parties support agricultural subsidies and has protectionist tendencies. All in all, SF is one of the most leftwing parties in the Green group in EP and in the EGP.

[Jens]

I don't know enough about the Green candidates, but it seems GPEW have threw their lot in with the Irish and Estonian Greens for German Ska Keller, and by extension, I can only presume is some harmless liberal? Hopefully someone here can clear it up for me? Seems the direction they've been headed for a while.

I'm not really sure what the definition "harmless liberal" entails?
The Danish Socialist People's Party is one of the most economically liberal green parties, and they supported Monica Frassoni, but I don't know exactly how much to put into that. If you look at the greenprimary-website you can see a few lines from each candidate, but to place them more detailed in an ideological sense is probably quite difficult without an extensive knowledge of the national green parties which they represent.

The key issues for each candidate on the website is broadly like this: José Bové = ecology, Monica Frassoni = democracy, Rebecca Harms = sustainibility and solidarity, and Ska Keller = internationalism and solidarity.

Well I'm thinking Irish and Estonian Greens - they're liberals with an environmental bent; compare that to Bové or SEL's Frassoni and it appeared the liberals were clustering around her. But then I hardly know a thing about any of them, really.

I'm surprised to hear you say SF are the most economically liberal of the green parties? I know the recent coalition has disillusioned their supporters to Enhedslisten, but it was at least built on a socialist base? I'd say they're clearly on the left.

Yeah I seen those. I was hoping for some of the posters of the candidates nationalities (as it appears Old Europe has) to weigh in and better inform us of their stances. 

It is the words of the current SF MEP Margrethe Auken. She says that the only areas in which she really has to check the Green Party voting lists are in trade and agriculture as SF is more economically liberal than most other green parties. The reforms they have agreed to while in government are very liberal as well: A lowering of the company tax and income taxes and cuts in unemployment benefits, student grants, early retirement benefits, public spending etc.

Really, Diouf!
Calling SF an economical liberal party (in the European sense). You might as well claim that Venstre is a leftwing party because their name translate into Left...
What Auken said is that she has to check the voting lists, because some Green parties support agricultural subsidies and has protectionist tendencies. All in all, SF is one of the most leftwing parties in the Green group in EP and in the EGP.

Try looking at what I wrote before raging: "The Danish Socialist People's Party is one of the most economically liberal green parties"

Then tell me how you understand the word "liberal" in English? Or to be more precise, are you using the American understanding of the term (because then your sentence makes sense) or are you using the European understanding?

[Jens]

I don't know enough about the Green candidates, but it seems GPEW have threw their lot in with the Irish and Estonian Greens for German Ska Keller, and by extension, I can only presume is some harmless liberal? Hopefully someone here can clear it up for me? Seems the direction they've been headed for a while.

I'm not really sure what the definition "harmless liberal" entails?
The Danish Socialist People's Party is one of the most economically liberal green parties, and they supported Monica Frassoni, but I don't know exactly how much to put into that. If you look at the greenprimary-website you can see a few lines from each candidate, but to place them more detailed in an ideological sense is probably quite difficult without an extensive knowledge of the national green parties which they represent.

The key issues for each candidate on the website is broadly like this: José Bové = ecology, Monica Frassoni = democracy, Rebecca Harms = sustainibility and solidarity, and Ska Keller = internationalism and solidarity.

Well I'm thinking Irish and Estonian Greens - they're liberals with an environmental bent; compare that to Bové or SEL's Frassoni and it appeared the liberals were clustering around her. But then I hardly know a thing about any of them, really.

I'm surprised to hear you say SF are the most economically liberal of the green parties? I know the recent coalition has disillusioned their supporters to Enhedslisten, but it was at least built on a socialist base? I'd say they're clearly on the left.

Yeah I seen those. I was hoping for some of the posters of the candidates nationalities (as it appears Old Europe has) to weigh in and better inform us of their stances. 

It is the words of the current SF MEP Margrethe Auken. She says that the only areas in which she really has to check the Green Party voting lists are in trade and agriculture as SF is more economically liberal than most other green parties. The reforms they have agreed to while in government are very liberal as well: A lowering of the company tax and income taxes and cuts in unemployment benefits, student grants, early retirement benefits, public spending etc.

Really, Diouf!
Calling SF an economical liberal party (in the European sense). You might as well claim that Venstre is a leftwing party because their name translate into Left...
What Auken said is that she has to check the voting lists, because some Green parties support agricultural subsidies and has protectionist tendencies. All in all, SF is one of the most leftwing parties in the Green group in EP and in the EGP.

Try looking at what I wrote before raging: "The Danish Socialist People's Party is one of the most economically liberal green parties"

Then tell me how you understand the word "liberal" in English? Or to be more precise, are you using the American understanding of the term (because then your sentence makes sense) or are you using the European understanding?

European sense: As more right-winged, more in favour of free trade etc. As Auken said: "On these two areas I have conflicts with my group because they are more traditionally left wing, protectionist".

Well, that just doesn't hold water and its way to simplistic to call SF liberal based on what I would call a misunderstood interpretation of Auken.
SF isn't a trad. social democratic party with protectionist tendencies, but that doesn't not make SF a liberal party. Not all right wing parties are pro free trade and not all left wing parties are protectionist.

[Jens]

Voxmeter EP poll. Denmark

Liberals 28.1 % 4 seats
Social Democrats 27.1 % 4
DF 20.4 % 3
SF 7.6 % 1
Social Liberals 6.6 % 1
People's movement against the EU 3.7 % 0
Conservatives 3.4 % 0
Liberal Alliance 3.2 % 0

Voxmeter is normally a reliable poller, but this polls looks really weird. Extremely high numbers for the Liberals and the Social Democrats, which is 7-8 % increases compared to the EP elections in 2009; all other polls have shown them around 19-24 %. Especially for the Social Democrats it seems weird considering how poor their national polls are. Also quite low figures for the two main Eurosceptic parties DF and the People's Movement, which are both around 5 % higher in other polls. Also poorer results than normally for the Social Liberals and the Conservatives.

45 % of those asked, answered don't know.

I agree. We'll have to wait for some more polling to see if this is an outliner.

[Jens]

Danish EP-poll in Børsen today
First line is the poll in percent
Second line the result in 2009
The lineup is: Social Democrats (A, S&D), Social Liberals (B, ALDE), Conservative (C, EPP), SF (F, Greens), Liberal Alliance (I, ?) People's Movement against (N, GUE), Danish People's Party (O, EFD), Venstre (V, ALDE)
Conservatives retain and Social Liberals gains a mandate because of electoral alliances.


DF largest party... sigh

[Jens]

Danish EP-poll in Børsen today

DF largest party... sigh

That looks unavoidable, but by those margins!!!

It do look like an outliner - Turnout will probably also be significant. DF voters are more likely to stay home

Have you tried SF's talking posters?

[Jens]

The latest PollWatch2014 aggregation of the polls provides this result:

The main reason for the high score of the EFD is that they assign Grillo to that group. I still very much doubt that it will happen. I think NI is the most likely. If they are to join a group I think it would be more likely with the GUE-NGL or perhaps the Greens. Quite a lot will probably depend on the MEPs they get elected. I also doubt the placement of AfD in EFD; I think ECR remains the most likely.

I would correct:

Savez za Hrvatsku Croatia NI  
Could be ECR, but as HSP AS is here, it is EFD.

Alternative für Deutschland Germany EFD
They ruled out grouping togehther with UKIP, FN and PVV, so ECR or NI.

Movimento 5 Stelle Italy EFD
Totaly open. Maby they'll find some mavericks to form a new group, maybe they'll splitt, maybe Greens, GUE, EFD, but most likely NI.

Zalo un Zemnieku savieniba Latvia EPP
Greens or ALDE

Slovenska Nacionalna Stranka Slovenia NI
EAF

Ciudadanos - Partido de la Ciudadanía Spain NI
ALDE

Democratic Unionist Party United Kingdom EFD
NI

List Verjamem Slovenia NI
Could be ALDE

I agree on the Estonian Greens. Would be very strange if they didn't join the Greens/EFA
Movimento 5 Stelle looks like a NI - don't really think that they will fit into Greens nor EFD
N-VA will for sure leave Greens/EFA. They only sad there because their MEP was a moderate from the old Volksunie - their new MEP's will be way to rightwing for EFA and the Greens

[Jens]

N-VA will not join ECR if True Finns and DF are included. One of their main policy points is that they disassociate themselves with these groups entirely.

N-VA have not been officially kicked out of the greens yet. Just the head of lists of the two Green parties in Belgium have both said that they would find it ''uncomfortable'' having the N-VA in the same grouping.

I think the N-VA are waiting to see what CiU do. They are almost like for like in every aspect.

From what I hear from the Danish EGP-people, the thing is that the current N-VA MEP is quite moderate, but that is not the case with the comming MEP's - so N-VA politically will also distance itself from Greens-EFA