EP elections 2014

[joevsimp]

I don't know where they're getting that from.  The South East has 10 MEPs, and the Lib Dems did slightly better there in 2009 than nationally, so with 9% nationally they'd be almost certain to hold a seat there.  I think they'd probably also hold seats in London and the North West, and might well in the East of England and the South West.

those last three regions are the main targets for the greens, so we'll see how much they can close the gap nearer the time

the LDs also finished ahead of Labour in SE and SW last time, I'm expecting that won't happen again

[joevsimp]

I'm  a Green party member in the UK and I didn't have a clue about this. (I still don't, what's going on?)

[joevsimp]

I'm  a Green party member in the UK and I didn't have a clue about this. (I still don't, what's going on?)

Ska Keller and José Bové are your leading candidates for the European parliament elections.

http://europeangreens.eu/news/press-release-greens-select-leading-candidates

in what way, for a pan-european campaign that the british greens have nothing to do with?

I thought Daniel Cohn Bendit was the supreme leader of the Euro-Verts

[joevsimp]

Ukip 6% (+1)
Liberal Dems 5% (-7)[/b]

Which would probably give a result of three Nats, 2 Labourites and 1 Tory.

Greens not included but the 7.3% that they got last time would get the last seat if the SNP don't quite make it to three

[joevsimp]

electio gave me...

GUE/UEL  70%
G/EFA         60
S&D           50
EFD           42
ALDE        30
EPP           30
ECR          30


and just for UK

Green       60%
Sinn Féin 59%
Plaid        56%
BNP         41% not sure what happened there
Labour    40%
LibDem   35%
SNP         35%
An Independence Party 27% (ukip splitter)
UKIP        25%
Conservative 20%
DUP         18%
English Democrats 18%
UCU_NF  15% (I thought they were running as UUP this time
British Democratic Party 0% (Andrew Brons' Strasserite splinter from the BNP, good riddance)



who is Kartika Tamara Liotard? my highest europe-wide match apart from Swedish Vansterpartiet

[joevsimp]

UKIP and TUV have a connection, which would make a connection to the DUP very unlikely. (TUV split from the DUP as a more extreme Protestant party.)

Really, European party groups are perhaps the least important issue in the Northern Ireland elections. Judging by party groups, you would think Northern Ireland is a mix of extreme socialists and Eurosceptics. It's not really.

I wish NI21 (which I would consider voting for if I lived there) would join EPP just so there would be a party in the UK affiliated with Europe's largest party

I'm not sure whether they'd join EPP or ALDE id elected, but joining EP groups is never a priority for uk parties that aren't actually in the EP, NI21 are not going to overtake the UUP and SDLP an time soon (although I'm neither a classical/slightly conservative liberal nor a Unionist, I do think it would be good for the political situation in NI for them to do well, although that probably would be bad news for Alliance)

[joevsimp]

Here's something about some of the less familiar party names on the UK ballot papers.  Most of these have no chance of actually winning a seat, though a handful of them might if we were using the German system.


An Independence from Europe is a UKIP splinter, based around Mike Nattrass MEP, who appear to be deliberately trying to be a spoiler for UKIP: they're even using the description "UK Independence Now" in some areas, which I'm surprised has been allowed.  The weird indefinite article in the name is presumably to get to the top of the ballot paper.


We Demand a Referendum is the banner of Nikki Sinclaire MEP, who was elected as UKIP and fell out with them.  There had been reports of other candidates, but she's the only one.

do Nattrass and Sinclaire really believe that they are the best individuals to stand up for Britain in Brussels, or do they just not want to get proper jobs

[joevsimp]

ICM poll for UK: Con 27, UKIP 26, Lab 24, Green 10, Lib Dem 7

Ugh... (well apart from the Greens doing OK)

hmm, I'd take that at this point, Labour need a kick up the backside, and once the seats are doled out it'd be near enough a three way tie than anything else

[joevsimp]

there was talk of an alliance fir the european and other elections, but it didn't happen, but as NI uses STV, we'll probably see a big transfer between them,

I'm actually looking forward to Northern Ireland's results, shame all the new parties are unionist thugh, but I'm particularly interested in where NI21's preferences come from and go