EP elections 2014

[Leftbehind]

     P     S     L     K     V     G     R     E     O     X      

P - EPP
S - S&D
L - ALDE
K - ECR
V - GUE-NGL
G - Green-EFA
R
E - EFD
O
X

?

[Leftbehind]

Cheers Ethelberth. Although, your editing of the OP has now messed up some of the formatting in your table (you could see its proper formatting while posting if you quoted it, but not any longer).

Berlusconi can bring PDL to EPP only to deprive them of majority.

PDL are already in EPP, no?

[Leftbehind]

To add to that, some UK polls were commissioned at the start of the year, to be taken with a pinch of salt of course:

ComRes:
LAB 35% (+19), UKIP 23% (+6), CON 22% (-6), LDEM 8% (-6), GRN 5% (-3), Others 8% (-9)
Survation:
LAB 31% (+15), CON 24% (-4), UKIP 22% (+5), LDEM 11% (-3), GRN 6% (-2), Others 6% (-11)
YouGov:
LAB 36% (+20), CON 24% (-4), UKIP 19% (+2), LDEM 12% (-2), GRN 6% (-2), Others 3% (-14)

All of which giving a median of:

LAB 34% (+18), CON 23% (-5), UKIP 21% (+4), LIB 10% (-4), GRN 6% (-2), Others 6% (-11)

[Leftbehind]

Great news if these numbers hold true (well, except for UKIP...).

Well you can't fail to notice UKIP's rise correlates with Tory drops, so it's mostly swapping like for like. Labour probably will be nowhere near that, as they'll be disproportionally hit by the usual derisive turnout. I'd be disappointed if the Greens fell from their respectable 8%; was hoping they'd build on it a usurp the Liberals (who are often reduced to their core in Euros).

[Leftbehind]

Pretty crappy polling for the Left in comparison to 2009, hopefully the decision of Ø to bolster the FmEU alliance will help.

[Leftbehind]

This is kind of interesting although the list of parties isn't complete.

http://www.debatingeurope.eu/voteblog/

You have to register, just to fill out a glorified questionnaire? F' that.

[Leftbehind]

I have never really understood why PVV didn't join the EFD group in the European Parliament, but remained non-inscrits by choice.

Presumably PVV's whole line about protecting Dutch liberal society from reactionary muslim hordes would be undermined by joining a group full of reactionaries?

[Leftbehind]

Nice to see the IU momentum.

[Leftbehind]

lol wat. A 11% swing from Lab >Lib since their last poll in January?!

[Leftbehind]

It seems there was another Survation poll this month too, to add them in:

ComRes
Jan:
LAB 35% (+19), UKIP 23% (+6), CON 22% (-6), LDEM 8% (-6), GRN 5% (-3), Others 8% (-9)
May:
UKIP 27% (+11), LAB 23% (+7), CON 21% (-7), LDEM 18% (+4), GRN 5% (-3), Others 6% (-11)

Survation:
Jan:
LAB 31% (+15), CON 24% (-4), UKIP 22% (+5), LDEM 11% (-3), GRN 6% (-2), Others 6% (-11)
May:
LAB 31% (+15), UKIP 30% (+13), CON 20% (-8), LDEM 8% (-6), GRN 6% (-2), Others 5% (-12)

YouGov:
LAB 36% (+20), CON 24% (-4), UKIP 19% (+2), LDEM 12% (-2), GRN 6% (-2), Others 3% (-14)

lol

[Leftbehind]

I note the UK youths polled are the worst in the EU27 for saying they haven't voted in the past three years, and most likely to say they 'never vote' - confirms what I thought.

[Leftbehind]

That'd be a fabulous vote for the Left.

[Leftbehind]

A new Austria poll shows that 64% of those polled can't name a single Austrian MEP.

Similar to along those lines:

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[Leftbehind]

I don't get why dislike for a national party within a pan-national party stop them from joining it?

[Leftbehind]

Awesome.

[Leftbehind]

12% Green.

Edit: ah, just realised they've only given those five possible options.

[Leftbehind]

Is open-list really in the wind in UK for next year's election ?

And what kind of horrible poll doesn't include an "others" option ?

Nah, ERS is a pressure group with very few allies among the political class.

It's not really a poll to measure support, as it is to measure the difference in support between open/closed list.

[Leftbehind]

^Dan Diaconescu is a former TV presenter and his party is described as socialist, nationalist and Eurosceptic. The party has apparently joined EUDemocrats, an alliance of Eurosceptic parties. I reckon the most likely group for it to join is the GUE-NGL. In the 2012 national election the party won 11.5 % and several seats in both houses. However, the party has had massive internal disputes and several senators and deputies have left the party.

Interesting. What type of nationalism are we talking here?

[Leftbehind]

Thanks. Disappointing, but then I shouldn't really have expected any better.

[Leftbehind]

Just being secular liberals, honest, guv! [/PVV]

[Leftbehind]

I don't know enough about the Green candidates, but it seems GPEW have threw their lot in with the Irish and Estonian Greens for German Ska Keller, and by extension, I can only presume is some harmless liberal? Hopefully someone here can clear it up for me? Seems the direction they've been headed for a while.

[Leftbehind]

Well at least the Tories will be in the company in which they belong.

[Leftbehind]

I don't know enough about the Green candidates, but it seems GPEW have threw their lot in with the Irish and Estonian Greens for German Ska Keller, and by extension, I can only presume is some harmless liberal? Hopefully someone here can clear it up for me? Seems the direction they've been headed for a while.

I'm not really sure what the definition "harmless liberal" entails?
The Danish Socialist People's Party is one of the most economically liberal green parties, and they supported Monica Frassoni, but I don't know exactly how much to put into that. If you look at the greenprimary-website you can see a few lines from each candidate, but to place them more detailed in an ideological sense is probably quite difficult without an extensive knowledge of the national green parties which they represent.

The key issues for each candidate on the website is broadly like this: José Bové = ecology, Monica Frassoni = democracy, Rebecca Harms = sustainibility and solidarity, and Ska Keller = internationalism and solidarity.

Well I'm thinking Irish and Estonian Greens - they're liberals with an environmental bent; compare that to Bové or SEL's Frassoni and it appeared the liberals were clustering around her. But then I hardly know a thing about any of them, really.

I'm surprised to hear you say SF are the most economically liberal of the green parties? I know the recent coalition has disillusioned their supporters to Enhedslisten, but it was at least built on a socialist base? I'd say they're clearly on the left.

Yeah I seen those. I was hoping for some of the posters of the candidates nationalities (as it appears Old Europe has) to weigh in and better inform us of their stances. 

[Leftbehind]

"Are you going to vote in the EP elections next year ?"

49% definitely
29% likely, yeah
11% unlikely, no
  8% definitely not

It should be noted that the turnout in the 2009 elections was 46%.

History has shown that only those who say "I will definitely vote" will actually go vote (with maybe a small number of the "likely" voters doing so as well).

Most UK polls at the last election had people saying they were 10/10 in certainty to vote at 40% or above, and the actual turnout was 34%.

[Leftbehind]

Well, yeah - just making the point it's not universal.