EP elections 2014

[Keystone Phil]

Any fairly recent polls out of Italy?

Only news I've seen was FdI running under the old AN banner with Forza Italia and Nuovo Centrodestra and Lega Nord stating the obvious (they'll be teaming up with Le Pen and Wilders).

[Keystone Phil]

IPR poll for the EP elections in Italy (the first poll for the EP elections)

The national date is "Italia"



Seats:

PD 23
M5S 21
Forza Italia 20
NCD 5
Lega 4

Threshold: 4%

Wow. So that's why we haven't seen anything about Italian polls. This is first! That's...strange. Grazie, Cris!

[Keystone Phil]

German speaking countries have the worst election posters in the world.

Yeah, what's that guy supposed to be doing in that picture? Getting ready to smack us?

[Keystone Phil]

Picking up on a question asked earlier here (by someone other than myself): is there any news of FI-FDI-NCD teaming up to unite the center-right despite their differences in Italy? If no real news, does anyone here know if it is likely?

[Keystone Phil]

In what recent polls did Forza Italia tank? The ones I've seen here show them not far behind PD (not counting FDI's numbers which almost have them tied). Unless FI was recently leading PD...

[Keystone Phil]

Giorgia Meloni posted a selfie with Le Pen earlier on Facebook with a caption about Europe so it looks like FDI is joining whatever coalition FN is in. Strange because I was pretty sure FDI was already paired with FI for European elections. Didn't expect FI to join FN unless this is just Meloni/FDI innocently "going off the reservation."

[Keystone Phil]

So that answers that about NCD (and FDI). I guess the center-left alliance will definitely be the top vote getter now.

[Keystone Phil]

My Forecast

Probability to overcome the threshold of 4%

Democratic Party - 100,00%
5 Stars Movement - 100,00%
Forza Italia - 100,00%
New Centre Right - Udc - Populars - 98,44%
Lega Nord - 75,15%
Other Europe with Tsipras - 61,07%
Brothers of Italy - AN - 13,50%
European Choice (Civic Choice - Democratic Centre - Fare) - 0,93%
Greens - Green Italia - 0,00%
Italy of Values - 0,00%
Svp - 0,00%

Two decimals?

To be more precise

In Italy, the polls are reported with one decimal. In the United States, the majority of the polls are reported without decimals.

Yes, I now, but how do you get those numbers?

Is a my calculation.

Wow. The real Italians even type in their accent!

[Keystone Phil]

Wouldn't FI going with the Le Pen coalition be a pretty massive blow to EPP?

[Keystone Phil]

Wouldn't FI going with the Le Pen coalition be a pretty massive blow to EPP?

That will not happen. If the EPP wants them, than FI will take part. Their other option is the ECR but not Le Pen.

Well, FDI is with Le Pen, as far as I can tell so I guess that closes the door on FI-FDI.

[Keystone Phil]

New IPR Italy poll shows FDI at 3.9% (threshold is 4%).

[Keystone Phil]

Didn't see this mentioned elsewhere: Nuovo Centrodestra is officially running with UDC. I guess that will put them over the threshold by a point or two.

[Keystone Phil]

I'd imagine 57% of Italians being "anti Euro" is surprisingly low.

So, barring some big turn around, will this be the first election since 1994 that the center-right coalition isn't in the plurality?

[Keystone Phil]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What the hell are you talking about? There have been plenty of elections which the right lost.

In fact, right won all European elections. Left never won any.
[/quote]

He said "the first election", without precising the type. And regardless, the left actually won the 2004 European elections.
[/quote]

I clearly said "since 1994" and seeing as this is a thread about European Parliamentary elections, I figured the bright people around here would know what type I was referring to.

This is not how coalitions work in Italy. Some parties in the left alliance were affiliated with ALDE or even EPP.

Cool! Maybe you can post that in the Italy thread when we're talking about Italy. My question was about EP elections.

[Keystone Phil]

I clearly said "since 1994"

Right, because there was no other election in 1994 in Italy besides the EP one.

Again, EP thread.

[Keystone Phil]

Agorà/Ixé poll for Italy



M5S has made significant process in recent weeks, and their polling average is now 25 % according to Electionista. Both the Tsipras list and FdI-AN are hovering around the treshold. The Verhofstadt list is quite far away from the 4 %, but this poll includes an option that was just called Scelta Civica which received 1.4 %. However, the Scelta Civica is a part of the Verhofstadt list and not running on its own AFAIK, so they are probably not that far away. I believe other polls have shown them around 3-3.5 % as well.

43 % answered don't know or will not vote.
 

FDI-AN will cross the threshold.

[Keystone Phil]

Well... that's... disturbing.

Oh and anyone who is against abortion and in favor of capital punishment is outright deprived of any credibility whatsoever.

There's the dose of stupidity I needed today.

[Keystone Phil]

Well... that's... disturbing.

Oh and anyone who is against abortion and in favor of capital punishment is outright deprived of any credibility whatsoever.

There's the dose of stupidity I needed today.

That position can be justified, but those who go on about the sanctity of life when speaking of abortion but believe executing people is ok....are hypocrites.

Ok so as long as we don't talk about it being the "sanctity," we're justified in saying it's more of a priority for us to protect innocent, defenseless life, right?

And before this turns into a flame war, let's note who started by questioning the credibility of those opposed to abortion/in favor of the death penalty.

[Keystone Phil]

Well... that's... disturbing.

Oh and anyone who is against abortion and in favor of capital punishment is outright deprived of any credibility whatsoever.

There's the dose of stupidity I needed today.

That position can be justified, but those who go on about the sanctity of life when speaking of abortion but believe executing people is ok....are hypocrites.

Ok so as long as we don't talk about it being the "sanctity," we're justified in saying it's more of a priority for us to protect innocent, defenseless life, right?

And before this turns into a flame war, let's note who started by questioning the credibility of those opposed to abortion/in favor of the death penalty.

You're kind of moving the goalposts here. It's not about priorities. Of course you can reasonably say that.

That's not at all equivalent to supporting the death penalty.

I'm going to respect the moderator's wishes (the post clearly immediately above yours) and not engage beyond this point.

[Keystone Phil]

[Keystone Phil]

Pathetic and false.
What to expect from former (?) fascists?

The Alfano version was even more disturbing.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm so torn on who I should root for in these elections.