EP elections 2014

[Velasco]

UPyD and Grillo have nothing in common.

I think Toni Cantó has the potential to become in our Grillo.

[Velasco]

Where did you find that poll, Diouf? Maybe I could comment it if I know the source

[Velasco]

I haven't seen polls for the EP in Spain. However, several polls for General and regional elections have been released lately.

For general elections, the CIS April barometer gives the following results: PP 34%; PSOE 28.2%; IU- Plural Left 9.9%; UPyD 7.4%; CiU (Catalonia) 3.4%; ERC (Cat) 2%; PNV (Basque Country) 1.2%; Amaiur (BC) 0.9%.

Celeste-Tel gives the following prediction. May and (April) polls: PP 30.5%(30.4); PSOE 26.7% (27.1); IU 14% (13.9); UPyD 8.9% (8.6); CiU 3% (3.2%); ERC 2.2% (2.1); Ciutadans (Catalonia) 1.7% (1.6); Amaiur 1.6% (1.6); PNV 1.5% (1.5); Compromís (Valencia) 1.6% (1.7); Equo 1.3% (1.3); CC-NC (Canaries) 1.1% (1.0). Other forces are under 1%. Estimated turnout 46.6% (44.1).

In Madrid Metroscopia (El País) predicts that PP (35.2%) wins but loses the majority and a strong increase of IU's support (18.9%), which would be almost tied with PSOE (20.1%). Increase for UPyD as well (10.4%), altough in a moderate way if compared with the IU. The poll gives Equo a 3.8%, under the 5% regional threshold.

[Velasco]

Metroscopia (El País) poll for the EP elections in Spain:

PP wins by a narrow 1.2% margin over PSOE, losing a 15% (down 7 seats) whereas PSOE loses a 12.6% (down 7 seats). IU-ICV gains an 11% (up 7 seats) in comparison with 2009 and UPyD gains a 7.4% (up 5 seats).

As for the others, the poll is made with the prior assumption of the same 2009 coalitions running again with the same composition, which is highly unlikely; the coalitions of small nationalistic parties are not defined yet.

Coalition for Europe was comprised by the Catalan CiU, the Basque PNV, the Canarian CC and other regional parties like the Valencian BNV or the Andalusian PA. It would retain 3 seats.

Europe of the Peoples-Greens was made with ERC (Catalonia), BNG (Galicia), Aralar and Eusko Alkartasuna (Basque Country), CHA (Aragon) and the Spanish Confederation of the Greens. It gained 1 seat in 2009 (Oriol Junqueras, ERC) and this poll says that would gain 3 seats in 2014.

Of course the abertzale left in the Basque Country didn't run, with the exception of Aralar (with EA now in EHBildu), but it supported a list called Internationalist Initiative, which got 1.14% of the vote nationwide and no seats.

[Velasco]

GESOP poll (via twitter):

PP 32.1% 20-21 seats; PSOE 28.5% 17-18 seats; IU 12.4% 7-8 seats; UPyD 9% 5-6 seats; Others 18% 3-4 seats.

El Periódico de Catalunya released a poll (GESOP too) for the general elections. PP would fall from 186 to 118-122 and PSOE from 110 to 104-107, whereas IU would rise from 11 to 48-50 and UPyD from 5 to 31-33. In Catalonia CiU would get 11-12 (16 in 2011) and ERC 7-9 (3).

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/noticias/politica/barometro-espana-gesop-julio-2465809

[Velasco]

I don't know a lot of Spanish, but I think this is not an EU-Parliament poll but rather a poll for the next Spanish parliamentary election ...

Yes, the poll linked above is for the general (parliamentary) elections, as I said before. The poll for the EP elections is not released yet (likely it will appear tomorrow in El Periódico), but the pollster advanced the results in its Twitter wall.

https://twitter.com/_GESOP

[Velasco]

I don't get why dislike for a national party within a pan-national party stop them from joining it?

National politics, obviously.

There was a sour dispute between PP and PNV about ten years ago, both in the EPP and the Christian Democrat International. PNV was a founding member of the latter and nowadays is out, because PP forced CDI to expel the rival party. I have not a clue about UPyD's final destination in the EP. On the paper, without being strictly liberal but "progressive" according to its own name and as its bylaws indicate, the party might fit in the ALDE. Many people inside identify themselves like "liberal" or "socialdemocrat", but also there's a controversy among the media and the public opinion (the latter vary from "center-left" to "right", depending on the region, some polls suggest) about UPyD's position in the political spectrum. Differences of appreciation might be due to the association between centralism and right that exist among certain people and in some places of Spain. Also on the paper, the party would not be so different from British Lib Dems, but I'd say there are significant differences on how the latter deals with Scotland, Wales and NI and how UPYD deals with Catalonia or Basque Country. Contexts are pretty different in UK and Spain as well.

On a sidenote, I laughed a lot with certain article in "The Economist" predicting that the atomization of the vote showed by the polls in Spain might lead to "paella coalitions".

[Velasco]

The last poll in Spain (Metroscopia/ El País 11/18) gives the following results:

PP 29% (18 seats); PSOE 27.9% (17); IU-ICV 14.3% (9); UPyD 8.2% (5); EdP-V* 5.5% (3); CEU** 4.3% (2).

* "Europe of the Peoples-Greens" (EdP-V) was a coalition of ERC (Catalonia), Aralar and EA (both from the Basque Country), BNG (Galicia), CHA (Aragon), other left-leaning regionalists/nationalists and the former Confederation of the Greens (nowadays Equo).

** Coalition for Europe (CEU) was comprised by CiU (Cat), PNV (BC), CC (Canaries), BNV (Valencia) and other regionalists. With the exceptions of BNV and PA (Andalusia), right-of-the-centre parties.

Neither of those coalitions is going to run again, but EdPV surpassing CEU likely reflects the strength of Amaiur in the Basque Country and the surge of ERC in Catalonia in parallel with the CiU decline.

I think El Periódico de Catalunya has a new poll for EP Elections, including new features such as the "Citizen Movement" (Movimiento Ciudadano, MC), that is to say, the national project Albert Rivera, leader of the Catalan anti-nationalist party known as Ciutadans (Citizens or C's). As soon as I get the results, I'll post.

[Velasco]

Oops, I found the poll result in GESOP Twitter:

PP 32.4% 20/21 seats.

PSOE 27.9% 17/18 seats.

IU 9.9% 6/7 seats.

UPyD 8.3% 4/5 seats.

CEU (CiU, PNV, etc) 4.8% 2 seats.

EdP (ERC, Amaiur, BNG, etc?) 4.8% 2 seats.

C's 3.5% 1/2 seats.

I must say that I find this poll quite weird. El Periódico released today the GESOP poll for General (Parliamentary) Elections giving PP 29.5%, PSOE 25.1%, IU 12.9%, UPyD 11.1%, C's 4%, CiU 3% and ERC 2.5%. It's rather shocking to see UPyD polling 11% with C's competing in the same electoral space getting 4% nationwide. Most of polls were giving UPyD less than 10% without C's. Also, the IU result for the EP elections is surprisingly low if compared with other polls.

[Velasco]

Oops, I almost posted the same image.

I'm not sure if PSOE is going to win, even by a 1.6% margin, but at least the election will be competitive.

The newspaper concedes such narrow margin falls into the standard margin of error and there's a "technical draw". According to the newspaper, Rubalcaba seems to prefer the veteran Ramón Jáuregi on the top of the list, perhaps with Elena Valenciano (PSOE's deputy general secretary). Rajoy might be undecided between Jaime Mayor Oreja (former Minister of Interior) and Miguel Arias Cañete (currently in Agriculture). The socialists might be unexpectedly reinforced by the controversial new abortion law. Given PP and PSOE low percentages, it looks like the Populares might be seriously damaged by abstention instead of a PSOE recovery. IU multiplies by 4 the 2009 result and UPyD by 3. Cuitadans (Movimiento Ciudadano) might gain a seat and the two nationalist coalitions 3 seats each if they are conformed as in 2009 (unlikely).

I suspect soon we'll see a poll released by El Mundo with PP winning by 5%.

[Velasco]

Jaime Mayor Oreja, PP spokesman in the EP, will not stand in next elections:

 http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/01/27/inenglish/1390834252_130242.html

Alejo Vidal-Quadras, another PP hardliner, announced that he's going to leave the party:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/01/27/inenglish/1390820473_322320.html

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[Velasco]

La Razón (NC Report) poll (2 hours ago):

PP 18/19 seats (30.1%); PSOE 17/18 (28.1%); IU 7/8 (12.4%); UPyD 4/5 (7.7%); CEU (CiU, PNV, CC?) 2/3; EdP (ERC, BNG, EH Bildu?) 2; Equo+Compromís+Others 1/2; Citizen Movement 1; VOX 1.

I don't regard NC Report as a reliable pollster, but the results sound interesting. Anyway, coalitions are not defined yet and I'm not sure if EH Bildu (Basque independentism, left-wing) will run alone or in which coalition will be Compromís (Valencia, center-left regionalist), to give some examples. This is the first poll where VOX, the PP right-wing splinter, appears.

[Velasco]

I find it surprising that Equo has 2 MEPs in this poll, and that La Razón (whose director, Marhuenda, is called Rajuenda because he's in love with Rajoy) only has PP 2 points over PSOE.

It woudn't be 2 MEPs for Equo but 2 for the coalition between Equo, Compromís and Més (Balearic Islands), if such thing is going to happen. CHA, the Aragonese nationalists, may run in the IU list.  I'm not so oprimistic, I think that coalition may get a single seat, maybe shared between López de Uralde and some guy of the Valencian Nationalist Bloc. Let's see.

El Periódico de Catalunya (GESOP):

PP: 31.6% (19)
PSOE: 28.0% (17)
IU: 11.5% (7)
UPyD: 9.3% (5)
CEU: 5.2% (3)
EdP: 3.4% (2)
C’s: 3.1% (1)
Others: 7.9% (0)

[Velasco]

Vox will join ECR propably ?
What about CC?

I know about nothing about Vox intentions with regard EP groups. If the party gets a seat, it will have to negotiate its affiliation. I guess the ultraconservative Libertad Digital is a reliable source in this case, and an article in that digital media says that the problem between Vox and the like-minded ECR group is the Euroescepticism of the latter, because Alejo Vidal-Quadras (nowadays PP MEP and soon joining Vox) is fiercely Europeist. According to Libertad Digital, Vidal-Quadras still feels as a member of the EPP.

Are you asking for the Canary Coalition? In 2009 CC ran with CiU, PNV and other parties in the Coalition for Europe (CEU). Canarian premier Paulino Rivero stated months ago that he intends to run with PNV and the latter thinks the coalition with CiU is "mandatory", although there have been rumours on a CiU/ERC coalition for the independence of Catalonia.

[Velasco]

Ciutadans use to be written as C's or Cs It's hard to say, because being social-liberal in theory the ALDE group is Cs natural home. They have the same problem that UPyD, which only MEP is currently unaffiliated. People in UPyD hope that after having an electoral success, ALDE could reconsider the affiliation of nationalist/regionalist Spanish parties in order that they can join. Despite Rosa Díez and Albert Rivera cool relationship, in that case I guess UPyD wouldn't consider C's uncompatible, as it occurs between the Rosa Díez party and the peripheral nationalists. If CiU, PNV or CC remain in ALDE, UPyD and C's won't join.

[Velasco]

The Spanish party Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) will place its current MEP, Francisco Sosa Wagner, on the top of the list. In the second place is Maite Pagazaurtundua, better known as 'Pagaza' -some Basque family names are complicated-. Maite Pagaza was member of the Basque Parliament (1993-1998) for the Basque Socialists (PSE) and presided an association of victims. Her brother, Joseba Pagazaurtundua was killed by ETA in 2003. She was very critic with former Spain's PM José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and with Patxi López -former Basque premier and PSE leader- because of serious disagreements on anti-terrorist policies and the peace process. Recently, she stated her upset with the "sudden" implementation of a sentence of the Strasbourg Court which allowed the release of several terrorists. The Court overruled the so-called "Parot doctrine", which tried to avoid that ETA members were enjoying penitentiary benefits in order that they were serving their full sentences. In fact, if some ETA members condemned for several murders are now free it's because of the inabilty of the major parties in reforming the Spanish Penal Code of 1973.

Ciutadans (Cs or Citizen Movement) is going to hold "telematic" primaries amongst the membership.

[Velasco]

The EP elections in Spain will probably coincide with an early regional election in Navarre. The minority government led by Yolanda Barcina, of the conservative regionalist Navarrese People's Union (UPN), will likely fall after a censure motion sponsored by PSN (PSOE's regional branch), with the support of IU and the Basque nationalists. The crisis has been triggered by the corruption allegations made by a former director of the regional Treasury against the minister of Economy and Barcina's deputy PM. If socialists go ahead with the motion, PSN leader would be elected new regional premier with the purpose of calling elections immediately. UPN governs in minority since June 2012, when socialists were expelled from a coalition government with the regionalists.

PSOE will place Elena Valenciano on the top of the list for the EP elections, with former minister Ramón Jáuregi in the second place. 

[Velasco]

El Pais (Metroscopia) poll, Feb 2014.

PSOE 28.1% (18 seats)

PP 26.3% (16)

IU 14.5% (9)

UPyD 8.1% (5)

CEU 5.1% (3)

ERC 3.3% (2)

C's 1.7% (1)

*_{CEU: CiU, PNV, CC and others}

PSOE is still slightly ahead, but the announcement of Elena Valenciano's candidacy didn't boost the Spanish socialists. Mariano Rajoy didn't appoint PP's candidate yet; maybe next week he will do so (Miguel Arias Cañete is the favourite).

Pollsters say that it's difficult to estimate the results of small parties/coalitions.

Direct vote figures are: PSOE 12.8%; PP 11.6%; IU 8.3%; UPyD 4.1%; ERC 1.7%; CiU 1.4%; PNV 0.8%; C's 0.6%; Vox 0.6%; Amaiur/Bildu/Aralar 0.5%;  Equo-Compromís 0.5%; Podemos 0.4%.

Ciutadans (C's) will place lawyer and talk show guest Javier Nart. The hard-right Vox, a PP splinter, will be headed by MEP Alejo Vidal-Quadras. Equo (Spanish greens) and Compromís (a centre-left coalition in Valencia) will run together and hold open primaries. ERC, the catalan independentist party, will run in its own. It's uncertain if EHBildu will go in coalition with BNG and other parties. The Galician Anova will go in the IU coalition and the far (true) left Podemos will negotiate next week a common list with IU.

[Velasco]

Poll for the EP elections in Catalonia (GESOP/El Periódico):

CiU 19.9%; ERC 19.9%; PSC 18.9%; ICV-EUiA 10.6%; PP 12.5%; C's 5.8%; UPyD 3.5%; Others 6.9%.

CiU will run in coalition with PNV and CC; ERC will run in its own; PSC=PSOE; ICV-EUiA=IU and C's is the main component of the Citizen's Movement.

http://estaticos.elperiodico.com/resources/pdf/8/8/1394316884388.pdf?_ga=1.21590971.123326214.1394363872

[Velasco]

Finally Mariano Rajoy consented to appoint a candidate for the EP elections. No surprises, the Spain's PM is proud of his predictability. The list of top candidates is set as follows:

People's Party (PP/EPP): Miguel Arias Cañete (aged 64). Minister of Agriculture. Civil servant since 1974, later professor at Jerez de la Frontera University (1978-1982) until he joined Manuel Fraga's AP (People's Alliance, the ancestor of PP). He has a long political career: Andalusian Parliament (1982-1986), MEP between 1986 and 1999, senator (1993-2000), minister in the second Aznar administration (2000-2004) in the same post he currently holds, representative in the Congress of Deputies...  Serious candidate for a post in the 'college' of Commissioners. The rest of the list is not defined yet.

Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE/PES): Elena Valenciano (53). PSOE's Deputy General Secretary since Rubalcaba's victory in the 2012 Convention, of whom she's the right-hand woman. Previously she coordinated the unsuccessful 2011 campaign. She has been MEP between 1999 and 2007 and member of the Congress of Deputies since 2008. Juan Fernando López Aguilar, a former minister of Justice who topped the list in 2009, is in the 4th place.

The Left: (Coalition between IU, ICV, Anova and other small parties/ IU will join GUE-NGL and ICV the EGP): Willy Meyer (61). Member of PCE since 1970 and linked to the Cadiz province, where he was elected deputy in 1996, losing his seat in the following election. Between 1996 and 2000 he was the IU spokesperson in the Interior and Defence parliamentary committee. In 2004 and 2009 he topped the IU list in the European Elections, being elected MEP in both contests. The number 2 of the list is for a woman from the CCOO trade union, the #3 for the ICV Catalans, #7 for Javier Couso (brother of a cameraman killed in Irak), with some person of the IU minority faction relegated to number 8.

Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD/not affiliated): Francisco Sosa Wagner (67). Doctor in Law, he has been University professor and oversaw Zapatero's thesis at León University. In the first years of La Transición he was member of  the Popular Socialist Party -founded by professor Tierno Galván in 1968, dissolved in 1978- and later quited politics to devote himself to the academic life until 2007, when he signed a manifesto which preceded the foundation of the Ciutadans party in Catalonia. In 2009 he topped UPyD list and elected. In the number 2, Maite Pagazaurtundúa, sister of a policeman killed in the Basque Country and anti-ETA activist.

Coalition for Europe (CDC, UDC, PNV, CC and other small regionalist parties/CDC is in ALDE, PNV in the EDP and UDC in the EPP): Ramon Tremosa i Balcells (CDC) tops the list, followed by Izaskun Bilbao (PNV) and Francesc Gambús (UDC). Tremosa (48) is economist and was appointed CEU candidate in 2009, representing the major partner of the CiU coalition.

Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC/EFA): Josep Maria Terricabras. In 2009 ERC joined a coalition with other regionalist parties and the former Confederation of the Greens, list which was topped by Oriol Junqueras, current leader of the Catalan independentist party. Now ERC is running alone and has serious chances of winning 1 or even 2 seats. Polls show a three-cornered contest in Catalonia between CiU, ERC and PSC for this election.  

The Peoples Decide (coalition between EHB, BNG and other small parties/ EFA): Josu Juaristi, from the Basque left-wing independentist Euskal Herria Bildu (EHB), is on top. The other major partner of the coalition is the Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG) and then a bunch smaller of independentist regional parties focused on the "right to decide" (call for self-determination referenda in peripheral regions).  

Ciutadans (C's/ not affiliated): Lawyer and talk show guest Javier Nart tops the list of this Catalan anti-independence party, which is trying to jump into national politics. Polls show that C's is on the verge of winning a seat, but it's not secure.

European Spring (coalition between Equo, Compromís, CHA and others/ EGP-EFA): This mildly leftist, ecologist and regionalist coalition with that poetic name is headed by Jordi Sebastià, who is member of Compromís (centre-left regionalists from Valencia) and mayor of the town of Burjassot, near the city of Valencia. Florent Marcellesi (from Equo, the Spanish Greens) is in the number two and Ángela Labordeta (CHA, Aragonese regionalist) in the third place.

Vox: The PP's hard-line splinter is headed by the veteran Catalan politician Alejo Vidal-Quadras (68), who will try to remain seated in the European Parliament, where he serves since 1999 and is Vicepresident since 2004. If elected, it's unclear in which group will be the proven conservative but not Euro-sceptic Vidal-Quadras.

Podemos: Pablo Iglesias (35). 'Podemos' represents the left beyond 'The Left'. The head of list is a young activist who teaches Political Science at Complutense University in Madrid and appears in TV as guest or hosting political debate shows. Iglesias is said to be one of the main representatives of Chavismo in Spain.

[Velasco]

People's Party (PP/EPP): Miguel Arias Cañete (aged 64) (...)

The acting Minister of Agriculture will go in PP's list with Esteban González Pons (deputy for Valencia and Vicesecretary in the party's leadership), Teresa Jiménez Becerril (MEP and sister of a politician killed by ETA), Luis de Grandes (a veteran politician who is MEP since 2004 and executive in FAES foundation, a conservative think-tank presided by Aznar), Pilar del Castillo (minister of Education between 2000 and 2004), and Ramón Luis Valcárcel (former premier of the Murcia region, resigned past week). Since Arias Cañete is seeking for a post in the European Commission, González Pons will be the leader of PP's caucus in the EP. The big surprise is that María del Mar Blanco won't be in the list. Ms Blanco is sister of Miguel Ángel Blanco, a Basque councilor kidnapped and killed by ETA in 1997, and presides FVT (a foundation of terrorism victims). The aforementioned Teresa Jiménez replaces Blanco as main representative of the victims, a sector which PP always took care of. 

[Velasco]

http://www.electio2014.eu/

Candidates: Tine Hördum (SPD/Ger) 100%, Andreu Criquet (ERC/Spain) 96%, Gerald Kreuzer (SPÖ/Aut) 96%, Christian Noiret (Greens/Belgium) 96%, Delfina Rossi (ICV/Spain) 96%, Ernest Urtasun (ICV/Spain) 96%. MEPS: Jens Geier (SPD/Ger) 95%, Nicole Kiil Nielsen (EELV/France) 93%, Raül Romeva (ICV/Spain) 93%.

Groups: Greens/EFA 87%; GUE-NGL 82%; S&D 78%; ALDE 53%; EPP 47%; EFD 44%; ECR 24%.

Funny results. I'm not going to vote neither for the S&D Spanish branch (I didn't find PSOE MEPS or candidates in my top matches) nor for the Catalan pro-independence ERC, even when I have a lot of coincidences with one of its candidates on European policies, according to the test.

PS: My worst match (6%) is Hon Daniel Hannan, from the UK Conservatives. A certain Marta Andreasen (UK independent) scores with 9%.

Spanish parties: Pirates 94%; ICV 93%; PSOE-PSC 78%; PNV 73%; UPyD 69%; IU 61%...

[Velasco]

Gerald Keuzer (SPÖ)

Who is this ?

Never heard of this guy.

You should know that Kreuzer better than me. It's just a silly typing error, very common on the other hand.

[Velasco]

Quite obscure SPÖ member, apparently. I've found that Juan Fernando López Aguilar (PSOE) is in my top 5 (5th with 86%) amongst Spanish MEPs or candidates. I know that politician well, since he was minister and is from my region. The funny thing is that my top 4 is made of Catalans (3 ICV and 1 ERC). Tough choice

[Velasco]

El Mundo/ Sigma Dos poll for Spain.

PP 33.1% 20/21 seats; PSOE 30,2% 18/19; IU+ICV+Anova 10.4% 6; UPyD 7.2% 4; CiU+PNV+CC 4.2% 2; ERC 3.2% 2; Cs 2.3% 1.

EHBildu+BNG 1.3%; Podemos 1,2%; Vox 1.1%; Equo+Compromís+CHA 1.1%; Others 4.7%.