EP elections 2014

[Zanas]

The left, Present 34, Future 58

This is one of the winner. Syriza, and IU will winn largely. Italy may be represented in this group. In Netherland, France, Finland and Denmark they will propably gain seats.

Never assume the left is going to win seats. Nearly never happens.

Syriza will win, yes.
IU should gain, but not so much, they had 3.9 %, they could poll 7 or 8 this time around and end up with 4 or 5 seats instead of 2.
In the Netherlands, SP will most probably stay the same.
In France, depends a lot if we keep those crappy interregional constituencies or not. There are talks these days on whether we will or not. Turnout will also depend on this I guess. If we come back to a single national constituency, more celebrities will be on the top of the several lists, and it could draw a bit more media attention. The Left Front result will certainly not be better than last time if we keep several constituencies, may even drop 1 or 2, but if we have a single one we could go up to 6 or 7 from 5.
I don't know about Scandinavia yet.

Predictions on turnout in France :
-interregional constituencies : 29 %
-single national constituency : 35 %

[Zanas]

Geert Wilders annouMarine Le Pen and the changes she has made in the Front National, especially by getting rid of antisemitism.

Of course, the Front National hasn't really got rid of antisemitism, they just toned it down and voiced much more on islamophobia instead.

[Zanas]

Yes, France is keeping inter-regional irrelevant to anyone constituencies. This translates into more seats for larger parties indeed. For example, last time, in the Centre constituency (Limousin, Centre, Massif central) where only five seats were at stake, the Modem and the FG, while getting as much as 8 % each, didn't get any seats.

[Zanas]

I don't get why dislike for a national party within a pan-national party stop them from joining it?

People are idiots. That's why.

[Zanas]

If by CR you mean the center-right, SEL isn't anywhere near making alliance with them. An ecologist group led by a gay communist doesn't usually do that...

edit : I realise you may have been talking about Civic Revolution instead. If so, I don't know.

[Zanas]

Is open-list really in the wind in UK for next year's election ?

And what kind of horrible poll doesn't include an "others" option ?

[Zanas]

To complete this, last week I heard that during the latest PGE meeting, the French PG, who has been showing a childish attitude towards the PCF since their choice to run with the PS in Paris in the municipales first round, refused to ratify the common proposal to reconduct Pierre Laurent as President of the PGE. Then, in their crazy momentum, they refused to ratify Tsipras as EU-wide candidate, as they want to propose... Mélenchon for this ! It seems they are the only member to do so, so chances are they will end up backing off.

[Zanas]

The French PS has unveiled its leaders in the EP election's constituencies :

- Île de France will be Harlem Désir, current first secretary of the party (pretty horrible)

- Southeast goes to Peillon, current education minister (not the most horrible)

- Northwest goes to Pargneaux, incumbent MEP, aubryste and first secretary of the Nord PS federation (I'll let you guess how horrible that is...)

- West goes to Isabelle Thomas, a nobody who replaced Le Foll in the EP when he got into the government. She's hamoniste, I don't know her. They seem to have parked the PS "left-wing" there, cause number 2 is hilariously Emmanuel Maurel, leader of the "not participating in the government left-wing" of the PS, and is also vice-president of the region... Île de France...

- Southwest is left to the PRG as part of an agreement. They haven't designated their candidate yet.

- East goes to Trautmann, a long time MEP and former mayor of Strasbourg and culture minister (I don't think I have any specific grudge against her)

- Centre goes to Denanot, president of the Limousin region, a masonic local potentate, pretty horrible.

They have adjourned their designation of their candidates overseas.

[Zanas]

With the last poll and a table I made, I had got roughly 20 MEPs for the FN... Maybe it will be a little less than that when they have to present candidates who are unknown to anyone, but I'm thinking they won't have less than 15. So the other parties won't need to get many of them in to have this group running.

[Zanas]

Yeah, but it's the UK, and Austria...

[Zanas]

In other news, the French PG (Mélenchon's party) has now left the Party of the European Left because they are so pissed off that Pierre Laurent has been confirmed as its President whereas he has allied with the PS in Paris' municipales... Negociations for the FG lists in the EP elections just got a little trickier, and they were already tough...

I'm starting to be quite fed up with PG bullshit...

[Zanas]

What I've learnt about Dutch elections is that SP always loses to PvdA in the last weeks.

[Zanas]

Aren't the Sweden Democrats polling like half of what they poll in national polls ? I would think an EP election would be one where they would thrive on apathy from other voters and euro-scepticism.

[Zanas]

Poland : Homo homini for Do Rzeczy, 2 March 2014

Civic Platform (EPP) 26 (15)
Polish People's Party (EPP) 6 (3)
Democratic Left Alliance (S&D) 17 (9)
PiS (Law and Justice) (ECR) 32 (19)
Poland Together (ECR) 3
Europa+ (Misc) 9 (5)
United Poland (?) 4
Congress of the new right (?) 2

Score (possible seat distribution)

[Zanas]

And Greece : Palmos Analysis

PASOK    ND    KKE    SYRIZA    XA     DIMAR    ANEL    
5.4         24.8    5.2    30.7    17.0    1.9            3.7

They also seem to have Laos polling 1.9 for some reason, and the Greens at 1.4.

That's 8 in Others btw.

XA's score seems outlierish from what we can see on general election polling nowadays. I don't know if the polling firm is any good though.

[Zanas]

Are the FPÖ and the Greens on a tangible downward trend or is this just the MoE ?

I mean for the EP election, cause I just saw the national polls and wow... I did nazi that coming.

[Zanas]

PASOK 5.9
ND    26.3
KKE 8.5
SYRIZA 26.3
XA 7.6
DIMAR 2.5
ANEL 4.2    
To Potami ("The River") 11.9 (!!!)

It's the second time I see this new list polled, and it sure escalated quickly : 7.5 in their first poll last week, and now this.

It seems to draw mostly Syriza, Greens, Dimar and a bit of Anel voters, maybe even a few XA who are just voting for the hell of it.

I'm thinking the soufflé will fall back eventually, but for now they really succeeded their entrance !

It's just been founded 10 days ago, as a sort of moderate hero centrist list, but it seems to lean more centre-left than centre-right.
                      

[Zanas]

PASOK 5.9
ND    26.3
KKE 8.5
SYRIZA 26.3
XA 7.6
DIMAR 2.5
ANEL 4.2    
To Potami ("The River") 11.9 (!!!)

It's the second time I see this new list polled, and it sure escalated quickly : 7.5 in their first poll last week, and now this.

It seems to draw mostly Syriza, Greens, Dimar and a bit of Anel voters, maybe even a few XA who are just voting for the hell of it.

I'm thinking the soufflé will fall back eventually, but for now they really succeeded their entrance !

It's just been founded 10 days ago, as a sort of moderate hero centrist list, but it seems to lean more centre-left than centre-right.
                      

ALDEish?

No other Greek party is associated with ALDE, so that seems like the obvious choice.

We can only conjecture at this point, I've not found anything on their possible EP group, even though I read the Greek alphabet.
But yes, ALDE would seem like the probable outcome.

The founder is a TV presenter, but he won't be candidate himself. Candidates will include artists, writers...

[Zanas]

Here's how the University of Macedonia poll translates among decided voters :
Syriza 23.4
ND 17.1
To Potami 16.5
XA 11.4
KKE 10.1
Pasok 5.7
Dimar 2.5
Anel 1.9

I'm having a hard time believing ND, Potami and KKe's scores honestly. Let's wait for a few more polls to see.

Also an Italian poll out :
FI 23.4
PD 29.4
LN 4.5
UdC 1.6
AET 6.5
FdI 3.3
NCD 3.3
SC 0.9
M5S 22.6

Glad to see l'Altra Europa with a bit of traction. Hope to see it not completely fail for a change...

[Zanas]

Most polls show that the party of the European Left and ALDE will battle for 3rd place.  My guess, based on the polls I have seen is that the Left is the favorite right now.  

Every poll I've seen seem not to take into account the regional constituencies in France and assume that the FG here will take 7 seats. It won't, for the moment. 4 or 5 at best. I'm pretty sure polls are greatly overestimating the final EUL-NGL tally. And Greens will be decimated, so it's a pretty safe bet for the moment that ALDE will remain 3d group.

[Zanas]

English article about it:

Austrian politician compares EU with 3rd Reich

The leader of Austria's Jewish community called on a right-wing politician to drop his campaign for re-election to the European Parliament after he was quoted as likening the European Union to the Third Reich in Nazi Germany.

Andreas Moelzer, co-lead candidate for Austria's far-right Freedom Party (FPO) in the May EU election, made headlines when a German paper quoted him as calling the EU a dictatorship that made the Third Reich look "informal and liberal" by comparison.

The Third Reich "certainly did not have as many rules and regulations, commandments and bans," the Sueddeutsche Zeitung's magazine quoted him as telling a gathering in Vienna last month.

Jewish leader Oskar Deutsch said on Monday Moelzer's refusal to distance himself from the comment showed he was apparently unable to come to grips with the fact that proponents of extreme-right thought shared responsibility for Nazi crimes.

"Such people may not represent Austria in Europe, so Moelzer should draw the consequences and withdraw his candidacy," Deutsch said in a statement.

Moelzer did not immediately respond to an email and a message left on his mobile phone seeking comment.

In a statement, he dismissed suggestions that his comments sought in any way to play down Nazi crimes or the criminal nature of the Hitler regime, which he condemned. He said political rivals were trying to trump up allegations.

http://www.jpost.com/Jewish-World/Jewish-News/Austrian-Jews-demand-far-right-politician-recant-EU-Third-Reich-comparison-346341

As always, the problem with this kind of remarks in this kind of context from this kind of politician in this kind of election campaign, the worst part is that the comment will very probably a) go on completely unnoticed b) make those who notice it more, instead of less, willing to vote for him...

[Zanas]

Italy


EMG poll for La7

PD 32.4
FI 22.4
M5S 21.3
Lega 4.2
NCD 3.6
Brothes of Italy 2.9
Tsipras 2.9
UDC 2.4
Civic Choice 1.9

IXE' for Agorà (Rai 3 show)

PD 28.6
M5S 24.2
FI 22.7
Tsipras 6.1
Lega 4.3
NCD 3.6
Brothes of Italy 3.1
UDC 1.9
Civic Choice 1.0

So the big question mark is Tsipras score

I wouldn't be at all surprised with this outcome. Remember l'Arcobaleno. The left in Italy committed suicide a long time ago, and the PD murdered its corpse afterwards.

[Zanas]

As always, the problem with this kind of remarks in this kind of context from this kind of politician in this kind of election campaign, the worst part is that the comment will very probably a) go on completely unnoticed b) make those who notice it more, instead of less, willing to vote for him...

No, the problem with this kind of remarks is that they are absolutely moronic, ridiculous, and offensive. Sorry dude but seriously, there is no excuse to make.

I agree with you. But the worst part is not that one man makes the comments, it's that millions are not at all bothered by it.

[Zanas]

I'd say number 6 is rather on the lines of "financing agricultural and breeding activities that are destined to be consumed by internal consumers".

[Zanas]

Because of the electoral system the gloves are off and alliances are not as necessary. They only do that in parliamentary or municipals because they have more to lease by facing each other.
PCF and PG (who form the bulk of FG) will unite though and won't run cnadidates against each other.

I wish I could be so affirmative now... What happened in the municipales will leave traces, and PCF and PG are pretty pissed at each other. The other FG members are trying to save what can be saved. But the PG is really getting to get its hopes up on a "renewed FG" centered only around him, like it was in Paris. They don't even care if they only get 1 MEP, because it will be their own.

As for MPF, De Villiers is politically dead, and I think also physically dying, at least quite ill. MPF will most certainly participate in UMP's West list, but maybe not very high.