EP elections 2014

[Diouf]

My guess in Denmark (based on absolutely no polling)

A - Soc.Dem (PES) 3 (-1)
B - Soc.Lib  (ALDE) 1 (+1)
C - Con.       (EPP)  0 (-1)
F - SF            (EGP) 1 (-1)
I - LA             (?)     0
N - Peo.Mov  (GUE) 1 (0)
O - DF           (EFD)  2 (0)
V - Venstre  (ALDE) 5 (+2)

But things could go significantly different. SD could easily loose another mandate. C and SF is very hard to predict because they are struggling pollwise but both have well known frontrunners. Enhedslisten might run on its on list, which probably would kill People's Movement. Liberal Alliance might be able to gather the anti-EU rightwing vote, but they need a strong frontrunner. Venstre is looking really strong in national poolings, but they removed their strong frontrunner, Jens Rohde from the list do to internal struggle, so right now they are running nobodies

It's indeed quite difficult to predict how much Venstre will gain, and how well the Eurosceptic parties will do. I don't think Rohde is that strong, he only received the fifth-highest number of personal votes at the 2009 election, so I don't think that will hurt them too much. I would probably predict Venstre to get 4, but the question is where the remaining seat will go then. It depends a fair bit on the electoral alliances. At the last EP election Liberal Alliance was very positive towards the EU and in an alliance with Venstre and the Conservatives, but in their new Eurosceptic cover I doubt whether that alliance will remain in place. This could maybe help Bendt Bendtsen retain his Conservative seat even if the LA receives more votes. Also  he is still quite popular unlike most of the Conservatives leaders in the Danish parliament, so some Venstre voters could easily vote for him. If the seat doesn't go to the Conservatives, it could go to the People's movement/Enhedslisten, if the latter can keep up its current polling.

[Diouf]

Spanish poll for the EP election:

Partido Popular 29.6 % 17 seats
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 26.7 % 16 seats
Izquierda Unida + Iniciativa per Catalunya Verds + other left parties 11.0 % 6 seats
Autonomous parties ? % 6 seats
Unión Progreso y Democracia 9.0 % 5 seats

The turnout is predicted to be 37.4 %, down from 44.90 % last time.

The poll is made on the (wrong) assumption that Spain only has 50 seats like in 2009, while in fact it has 54 seats.

[Diouf]

Where did you find that poll, Diouf? Maybe I could comment it if I know the source

http://www.lavozdegalicia.es/noticia/opinion/2013/04/19/elecciones-europeas-preocupan-politicos/0003_201304G19P14995.htm

[Diouf]

Danish EP poll made by A&B Analyse:

Venstre (ALDE) 27 % 5 seats
Socialdemokraterne (S&D) 17 % 3 seats
Dansk Folkeparti (EFD) 15.6 % 2 seats
Enhedslisten (GUE-NGL) 7.5 % 1 seat
De Radikale (ALDE) 5.9 % 1 seat
Socialistisk Folkeparti (Green) 4.6 % 1 seat
De Konservative (EPP) 4.3 % 0 seats
Liberal Alliance (presumably ECR) 3.8 % 0 seats
Folkebevægelsen mod EU (GUE-NGL) 3.1 % 0 seats

However, there are a few things to notice. The allocation of seats is made on the presumption that the Liberal Alliance's eurosceptic line means that they won't be in an alliance with Venstre and Konservative like last time. However, if they join that alliance, one seat will move from Socialistisk Folkeparti to Venstre. The poll is also made on the presumption that Enhedslisten will actually run; in earlier years they have just campaigned for the People's Movement against EU, but they are seriously considering running this time and it will be decided on their conference in the next couple of days. If they run, they will probably run in an alliance with the People's Movement, but they will most likely end up killing them as they do in this poll. Enhedslisten's participation in an election will certainly raise the turnout among their regular voters, but it is very questionable whether it will be enough to gain two seats and thereby keep the People's Movement alive.

[Diouf]

Its very unlikely that the Red-Green Alliance will run on its own, since this is very unpopular among their grassroots, who are extremely fond of "popular movements".

SD is likely to fall further behind, since this will be a good opportunity for their voters to warn them against the consequences of the governments course without actually risiking anything.

They have indeed just decided NOT TO RUN for the 2014 EP elections. 158 representatives voted for including many of the most prominents MPs, while 220 voted against.

 

[Diouf]

Geert Wilders announced that his party will try to join other parties to form a group after the next European elections. He says his MEP's have worked hard, but now they must go one step further. He doesn't want to mention names of potential parties to work with, but he talks warmly about Marine Le Pen and the changes she has made in the Front National, especially by getting rid of antisemitism.

I don't think it's very likely that there will be two right-wing Eurosceptic groups after the next election, and if it happens it will probably mean two small groups without too much leverage. One big group could potentially become the fourth-biggest group in the EP, but the question is of course where the line is drawn for members of such a group. I guess that it will to a large extent depend on the UKIP's stance, and they will probably try too avoid too radical parties, especially with an eye on the 2015 British election. I guess PVV could be allowed to join, but it's more doubtful whether Front National, FPÖ etc could join.

[Diouf]

Harris Interactive/LCP poll for France (2009 results)

UMP 23 % (27.88 together with NC/UDI)
PS 21 % (16.48)
FN 18 % (6.34)
EELV 10 % (16.28)
UDI 8 % (27.88 together with UMP)
FdG 8 % (6.48)
MoDem 6 % (8.46)

UDI is Union des démocrates et indépendants. It seems pretty much like an UMP offspring, and includes several members from the Nouveau Centre that ran together with UMP in 2009. They are members of the EPP as well.
No calculation of the approximate number of seats. Obviously big progress for the FN, whom I guess would get around 15-16 seats on such a result. Currently they have three.

[Diouf]

Looking on Wikipedia a bit, I have to say that UPyD sticks out like a sore thumb of sanity among the other unaffiliated parties, which seem to basically all be far-right nationalists.

Why aren't they in a group, and what sort of group would they be most likely to be a part of?  It seems to me that they'd fit in well enough with the liberals/centrists, no? There have to be some other parties they would ally with.

I guess the reason why they aren't in the liberal group is that it contains the EAJ-PNV and CDC, who is the biggest party in the CiU coalition. UpyD wants a unitary Spanish state and does not want anything to do with the parties promoting a bigger autonomy or even independence for parts of Spain. They would of course not join the regionalists in the green group and the EPP contains UDC, the other part of CiU. Finally, the funder of the party Rosa Diez broke out from the Socialists, the PSOE, to start up the UpyD party so there's probably some mutual dislike between them. So this basically leaves no group for them to join.

[Diouf]

A new DYM poll for Spain. Unsurprisingly, the two main parties both suffer. A lot of support for IU while UpyD scores relatively low compared to most of the national polls. I guess IU takes home a lot of the anti EU-austerity voters, while UpyD might not be seen as that different from the two big parties on European policy.

[Diouf]

But this Poll do not consider parties like CC, Aralar, Equo, BNV and allies, Citudanos etc

I believe that they have just written the names of the parties who will be represented instead of the name of the alliances which people might not recognize and might not be exactly the same this time around. So the vote for CC will be under CiU + PNV etc. Bloque Nacionalista Galego did not get a seat last time around, but as they are mentioned here and the coalition gets 3, one of them is predicted to go their way.

[Diouf]

New YouGov poll Britain, commissioned by LSE and the Electoral Reform Society

Labour 30 %
UKIP 25 %
Conservatives 23 %
Greens 12 %
Lib Dems 10 %

The poll asked the same people how they would vote in an open-list system, where they could vote directly for e.g. a Conservative Eurosceptic. In that case the outcome was:

Labour 31 %
Conservatives 28 %
UKIP 19 %
Lib Dems 12 %
Greens 10 %

[Diouf]

Sociopol poll for Romania. At the 2009 election Romania had 33 seats, in 2014 it will have 32.

Partidul Social Democrat (PSD) 39 % 15 seats (+4) PES/S&D
Partidul Naţional Liberal (PNL) 20 %  7 (+2) ALDE
Partidul Democrat Liberal (PDL) 17 % 6 (-4) EPP
Partidul Poporului – Dan Diaconescu (PP-DD) 7 % 2 (new) ?^
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (UDMR) 6 % 2 (-1) EPP
Others 11 % 0 (-4)*

The Partidul Conservator (PC) which won one seat in 2009 when it ran with PSD and has been in the S&D group, is expected to run with the PNL as the two parties have created a centre-right alliance. PC could probably get 1 of the 7 seats which will follow PNL into ALDE.

^Dan Diaconescu is a former TV presenter and his party is described as socialist, nationalist and Eurosceptic. The party has apparently joined EUDemocrats, an alliance of Eurosceptic parties. I reckon the most likely group for it to join is the GUE-NGL. In the 2012 national election the party won 11.5 % and several seats in both houses. However, the party has had massive internal disputes and several senators and deputies have left the party.

*Last time Elena Băsescu, daughter of president Traian Băsescu, ran on her own and won a seat with 4.22 % of the vote. She has since rejoined PDL, and will probably run for them if she goes for another term.
The ultra-nationalist and rather anti-Hungarian Partidul România Mare won three seats and 8.65 % of the votes in 2009. The three MEPs are non-inscrits. The party has faded to irrelevance lately and only obtained 1.47 % and no seats in the 2012 national election, so in this poll it is included in others.

[Diouf]

I have found a longer description on Cristian Nocorels blog. He is a doctoral candidate of Political and Economic studies according to the homepage. Unsurprisingly, he believes that the party has largely attracted former PRM voters.

"A new political presence that seems to have taken mainstream Romanian politics by storm and establish itself as the third largest party is the People's Party-Dan Diaconescu (PP-DD/ Partidul Poporului Dan Diaconescu). The PP-DD polled 9.23% for presidents of county councils; 7.29% for mayors; 8.96% for members of county councils in the local elections in June 2012. The PP-DD is the product of eponymous TV-channel owner Dan Diaconescu. Diaconescu, more or less single-handedly, has founded the party and created its nation-wide network of branches. At a quick glance, the PP-DD appears to have a rather complex ideological makeup, displaying strong populist appeals, such as social justice to be undertaken in the framework of a strong state (which reminds of the former communist state); trial of all previous governments found to have mismanaged the country; confiscation of illicit fortunes gained from pillaging the public goods, but also some surprising stances, decidedly right wing neoliberal, such as tax cuts, and tax simplification. All these are tinged with discrete nationalist appeals (the numerous and insistent references to supporting “Romanianism”, respecting the Romanian national anthem, subscription to Romanian Orthodox Christianity, etc.).

Inspected more closely, however, the PP-DD political agenda displays strong similarities with that of the consecrated radical right populist (RRM) party in Romania, namely the Greater Romania Party (PRM/ Partidul România Mare). In particular, it is reminiscent of the PRM successful political campaign in the 2000 parliamentary and presidential elections, as it were personified by the party leader Corneliu Vadim Tudor. Another similarity lies in that the PP-DD candidates had their candidacy endorsed “on air” at the TV station owned by Diaconescu (OTV). This comes to strengthen the classification of the PP-DD as an emerging radical right populist party, with a strong (male) leader that gives his formal ‘blessing’ to his acolytes live on TV. In this light, if in 2000 Tudor had a very influential weekly magazine at his disposal to maneuver his captive electorate, in 2012 Diaconescu has taken the process to a new level, having his own TV station. It is worth mentioning that the PRM appears to have lost most of its raison d’être, with Tudor comfortably enjoying the perks of being a Romanian representative in the European Parliament (EMP), thereby away from the forefront of Romanian national politics and the party’s rank and file left in a profound disarray as a direct consequence of his absence."

Link to blog: http://www.norocel.eu/

[Diouf]

Not surprisingly, Martin Schulz from SPD, has today been named PES candidate designate for President of the European Commission. He will be ratified as their candidate on the PES Election Congress 1 March 2013.

The Party of the European Left have nominated Alexis Tsipras from SYRIZA as their candidate, and he is expected to be confirmed on their congress in mid-December.

The green primaries are to begin in a few dates, and six candidates will fight to be the two front-runners. José Bové from Europe Écologie, Rebecca Harms and Ska Keller from die Grüne in Germany, Ulrike Lunacek from the Austrian die Grünen, Monica Frassoni from Federazione dei Verdi and Joland Verburg from the small Dutch party de Groenen.

ALDE will open for nominations at their London congress in late November, and then elect their candidate at 1 February in Brussels.

The EPP seems to be internally divided about whether it is even to run a candiate. Angela Merkel has come out against it recently.

The (A)ECR and MELD (EFD) has not mentioned anything about a common candidate yet, and it is probably unlikely that they will elect one.

[Diouf]

Ulrike Lunacek dropped out, because the Austrian Greens have left the primaries altogether.

Interesting, I wonder if other green parties share their concern.

Btw, is the Austrian European Commissioner post a part of the coalition negotiations like in Germany?

A few minutes ago the EPP spokesman said that the EPP will nominate a candidate for Commission President and that it will happen at the Dublin Congress on 6-7 March 2014.

[Diouf]

Jolanda Verburg will not participate in the primary either. The European Green Party has announced that Bové, Frassoni, Harms and Keller will be the candidates in the primary. I haven't been able to find out why Verburg is not among them, but my guess will be that she didn't manage to get enough support from other parties. Candidates needed support from at least four parties to run in the actual primary.

I would think that Bové and Harms are favourites to become the lead candidates, but I'm not quite sure how this e-primary will actually unfold. Keller, who was nominated by the Young Greens, might have a chance if young people will dominate the voting. The voting starts on the 10 November.

[Diouf]

Here you can see which green parties supported which candidates: http://europeangreens.eu/news/bov%C3%A9-frassoni-harms-and-keller-contend-green-primary

And here is the list of the parties that supported Martin Schulz:
http://www.pes.eu/en/news/pes-common-candidate-process-official-state-play

Nice link Cris. It looks like a very good simulation and it predicts a rather close battle for first place between EPP and S&D. A small mistake for Denmark though as the Unity List/Red-Green Alliance doesn't run; instead they support the People's Movement against the EU. However, they end up the same place, in GUE-NGL, so it doesn't mean that much.

[Diouf]

The news magazine "Profil.at" reports that next week a EAF-conference will take place in Vienna, in which Far-Right members of the FN, FPÖ, Sweden Democrats and the Vlaams Belang will take part. They will talk about a co-operation in the 2014 EP elections.

The PVV and the Lega Nord might join later.

Even if the 2 parties join, it means the EAF would still need an MEP from a 7th country to form an EP group after the election.

MEPs from 7 of the 28 countries are needed to form a group.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20131109_OTS0004/profil-neue-europaeische-rechts-allianz-tagt-in-wien

I guess some of the current EFD-members might be convinced. Perhaps the most realistic guess from the EFD is the Slovenská národná strana (Slovak National Party) if they can get their one MEP re-elected.

Ataka from Bulgaria sat in the Identity, Tradition, Sovereignty group along with the FN, so they might also join this group if they are represented in the next European Parliament.

[Diouf]

SNS is polling 3.5% and the threshold is 5% so I do not thinkt that they Will get a seat. ATAKA will get at least one seat but I think they are to extreme. I think that either the dansih DF, finnish Perus or the Lithuanian TT might be the seventh party in exchange for some goodies.

Why do you think Ataka will be considered too extreme now? According to Ataka's website, they visited FPÖ in Vienna in October to discuss the possibility of joining forces in the EU election*

DF has already rejected the possibility of taking part in that group. I really doubt that that Perus will join either; DF's MEP talks about them as a party very similar to his own, and I think they will much rather be associated with UKIP and Nigel Farage than with Front National, especially because of the legacy of Jean-Marie Le Pen and his anti-semitism. TT generally doesn't seem like a party that would join such a group; they are currently in a coalition government with the Labour party and the Social Democrats, and they are only very softly Eurosceptic.

I'm not sure what goodies they would get in a Front National-group that they could not get in the EFD?

*http://www.ataka.bg/en/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=222&Itemid=1

[Diouf]

I don't know enough about the Green candidates, but it seems GPEW have threw their lot in with the Irish and Estonian Greens for German Ska Keller, and by extension, I can only presume is some harmless liberal? Hopefully someone here can clear it up for me? Seems the direction they've been headed for a while.

I'm not really sure what the definition "harmless liberal" entails?
The Danish Socialist People's Party is one of the most economically liberal green parties, and they supported Monica Frassoni, but I don't know exactly how much to put into that. If you look at the greenprimary-website you can see a few lines from each candidate, but to place them more detailed in an ideological sense is probably quite difficult without an extensive knowledge of the national green parties which they represent.

The key issues for each candidate on the website is broadly like this: José Bové = ecology, Monica Frassoni = democracy, Rebecca Harms = sustainibility and solidarity, and Ska Keller = internationalism and solidarity.

[Diouf]

These comments from the VVD illustrate the dividing line in the ALDE group pretty well:

The former VVD-leader and European Commissioner Frits Bolkestein agrees with his party's European spokesperson Mark Verheijen that federalists like Guy Verhofstadt are more dangerous for Europe than hardcore Eurosceptics like Marine Le Pen.

http://nos.nl/artikel/573163-bolkestein-verhofstadt-gevaarlijk.html

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[Diouf]

I don't know enough about the Green candidates, but it seems GPEW have threw their lot in with the Irish and Estonian Greens for German Ska Keller, and by extension, I can only presume is some harmless liberal? Hopefully someone here can clear it up for me? Seems the direction they've been headed for a while.

I'm not really sure what the definition "harmless liberal" entails?
The Danish Socialist People's Party is one of the most economically liberal green parties, and they supported Monica Frassoni, but I don't know exactly how much to put into that. If you look at the greenprimary-website you can see a few lines from each candidate, but to place them more detailed in an ideological sense is probably quite difficult without an extensive knowledge of the national green parties which they represent.

The key issues for each candidate on the website is broadly like this: José Bové = ecology, Monica Frassoni = democracy, Rebecca Harms = sustainibility and solidarity, and Ska Keller = internationalism and solidarity.

Well I'm thinking Irish and Estonian Greens - they're liberals with an environmental bent; compare that to Bové or SEL's Frassoni and it appeared the liberals were clustering around her. But then I hardly know a thing about any of them, really.

I'm surprised to hear you say SF are the most economically liberal of the green parties? I know the recent coalition has disillusioned their supporters to Enhedslisten, but it was at least built on a socialist base? I'd say they're clearly on the left.

Yeah I seen those. I was hoping for some of the posters of the candidates nationalities (as it appears Old Europe has) to weigh in and better inform us of their stances. 

It is the words of the current SF MEP Margrethe Auken. She says that the only areas in which she really has to check the Green Party voting lists are in trade and agriculture as SF is more economically liberal than most other green parties. The reforms they have agreed to while in government are very liberal as well: A lowering of the company tax and income taxes and cuts in unemployment benefits, student grants, early retirement benefits, public spending etc.

[Diouf]

I don't know enough about the Green candidates, but it seems GPEW have threw their lot in with the Irish and Estonian Greens for German Ska Keller, and by extension, I can only presume is some harmless liberal? Hopefully someone here can clear it up for me? Seems the direction they've been headed for a while.

I'm not really sure what the definition "harmless liberal" entails?
The Danish Socialist People's Party is one of the most economically liberal green parties, and they supported Monica Frassoni, but I don't know exactly how much to put into that. If you look at the greenprimary-website you can see a few lines from each candidate, but to place them more detailed in an ideological sense is probably quite difficult without an extensive knowledge of the national green parties which they represent.

The key issues for each candidate on the website is broadly like this: José Bové = ecology, Monica Frassoni = democracy, Rebecca Harms = sustainibility and solidarity, and Ska Keller = internationalism and solidarity.

Well I'm thinking Irish and Estonian Greens - they're liberals with an environmental bent; compare that to Bové or SEL's Frassoni and it appeared the liberals were clustering around her. But then I hardly know a thing about any of them, really.

I'm surprised to hear you say SF are the most economically liberal of the green parties? I know the recent coalition has disillusioned their supporters to Enhedslisten, but it was at least built on a socialist base? I'd say they're clearly on the left.

Yeah I seen those. I was hoping for some of the posters of the candidates nationalities (as it appears Old Europe has) to weigh in and better inform us of their stances. 

It is the words of the current SF MEP Margrethe Auken. She says that the only areas in which she really has to check the Green Party voting lists are in trade and agriculture as SF is more economically liberal than most other green parties. The reforms they have agreed to while in government are very liberal as well: A lowering of the company tax and income taxes and cuts in unemployment benefits, student grants, early retirement benefits, public spending etc.

Really, Diouf!
Calling SF an economical liberal party (in the European sense). You might as well claim that Venstre is a leftwing party because their name translate into Left...
What Auken said is that she has to check the voting lists, because some Green parties support agricultural subsidies and has protectionist tendencies. All in all, SF is one of the most leftwing parties in the Green group in EP and in the EGP.

Try looking at what I wrote before raging: "The Danish Socialist People's Party is one of the most economically liberal green parties"

[Diouf]

I don't know enough about the Green candidates, but it seems GPEW have threw their lot in with the Irish and Estonian Greens for German Ska Keller, and by extension, I can only presume is some harmless liberal? Hopefully someone here can clear it up for me? Seems the direction they've been headed for a while.

I'm not really sure what the definition "harmless liberal" entails?
The Danish Socialist People's Party is one of the most economically liberal green parties, and they supported Monica Frassoni, but I don't know exactly how much to put into that. If you look at the greenprimary-website you can see a few lines from each candidate, but to place them more detailed in an ideological sense is probably quite difficult without an extensive knowledge of the national green parties which they represent.

The key issues for each candidate on the website is broadly like this: José Bové = ecology, Monica Frassoni = democracy, Rebecca Harms = sustainibility and solidarity, and Ska Keller = internationalism and solidarity.

Well I'm thinking Irish and Estonian Greens - they're liberals with an environmental bent; compare that to Bové or SEL's Frassoni and it appeared the liberals were clustering around her. But then I hardly know a thing about any of them, really.

I'm surprised to hear you say SF are the most economically liberal of the green parties? I know the recent coalition has disillusioned their supporters to Enhedslisten, but it was at least built on a socialist base? I'd say they're clearly on the left.

Yeah I seen those. I was hoping for some of the posters of the candidates nationalities (as it appears Old Europe has) to weigh in and better inform us of their stances. 

It is the words of the current SF MEP Margrethe Auken. She says that the only areas in which she really has to check the Green Party voting lists are in trade and agriculture as SF is more economically liberal than most other green parties. The reforms they have agreed to while in government are very liberal as well: A lowering of the company tax and income taxes and cuts in unemployment benefits, student grants, early retirement benefits, public spending etc.

Really, Diouf!
Calling SF an economical liberal party (in the European sense). You might as well claim that Venstre is a leftwing party because their name translate into Left...
What Auken said is that she has to check the voting lists, because some Green parties support agricultural subsidies and has protectionist tendencies. All in all, SF is one of the most leftwing parties in the Green group in EP and in the EGP.

Try looking at what I wrote before raging: "The Danish Socialist People's Party is one of the most economically liberal green parties"

Then tell me how you understand the word "liberal" in English? Or to be more precise, are you using the American understanding of the term (because then your sentence makes sense) or are you using the European understanding?

European sense: As more right-winged, more in favour of free trade etc. As Auken said: "On these two areas I have conflicts with my group because they are more traditionally left wing, protectionist".

[Diouf]

ALDE have now opened for nominations at their congress in London. "Candidates shall be formally nominated by at least two member parties from more than one member state or by 20% of ALDE Party Congress voting delegates by 20 December 2013".

Olli Rehn, the Finnish Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs and the Euro, has already announced his candidacy and says that he has support from Germany, Great Britain and the Nordic countries. He didn't mention if it was all the parties from the Nordic countries, but I guess we could safely count in his own party Suomen Keskusta, for whom he is gonna run in the EP 2014 election, and Venstre in Denmark. I think it would be quite logical if VVD also supported Rehn's candidacy, especially if he is running against Verhofstadt which looks very likely. Such an duel will probably illustrate the dividing line in ALDE quite nicely.