Clinton/Schweitzer vs. Christie/Portman

[Skill and Chance]

How would this race play out in a close election?  Do the relative populist/libertarian streaks of the tickets put any unusual states into play?

[PolitiJunkie]

This would be a VERY interesting election which would put some states friendly to the Clintons but very unfriendly to Kerry/Obama (such as Kentucky, WV, Louisiana) into play, though it may be too little too late in those states, and may put some generally in the blue column in play such as New Jersey. Here is my breakdown (I don't have enough posts yet to link to maps):

Safe D (161 EV): Vermont, New York, Washington, California, Illinois, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Hawaii, DC, Maryland, Delaware

Likely D (42 EV): Minnesota, Michigan, Oregon, New Mexico, Maine

Lean D (46 EV): New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Nevada

Toss-Up (92 EV): Ohio, Montana, Virginia, Colorado, Arkansas, Florida, New Jersey

Lean R (46 EV): Missouri, Louisiana, Kentucky, North Carolina, West Virginia

Likely R (102 EV): Arizona, Alaska, Indiana, Tennessee, North Dakota, Texas, South Carolina, Georgia

Safe R (49 EV): Alabama, Mississippi, South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, Utah, Kansas, Oklahoma, Idaho

[bballrox4717]

Clinton wins, a good amount of conservatives vote for someone else or stay home. They'll come around and vote for Christie by himself but adding Portman to the ticket will likely piss a lot of Republicans off, especially those weary of Christie to begin with.

[Mister Mets]

I've gone with a similar system to PolitiJunkie, although I do like the division into Safe, Likely and Lean categories.

Safe D (161 EV): Vermont, New York, Washington, California, Illinois, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Hawaii, DC, Maryland, Delaware

Likely D (18 EV): Oregon, Maine, Connecticut

Lean D (36 EV): Nevada, Minnesota, Michigan, New Mexico

Democratic-leaning Toss-Up (55 EV): New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Jersey

Republican-leaning Toss-Up (72 EV): Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Florida

Likely R (83 EV): Arizona, Indiana, South Carolina, Georgia, Montana, Arkansas, Missouri, North Carolina, West Virginia

Safe R (160 EV): Alabama, Mississippi, South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, Utah, Kansas, Oklahoma, Idaho, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Dakota, Texas, Louisiana, Alaska

My assumption is that 2016 is most likely to be a cycle with a slight Republican lean, something that would continue in an election with one of the strongest Democratic candidates VS one of the strongest Republicans.

I don't see Arkansas, a state Obama lost by 23.69 points in 2012 , or Montana, a state Obama lost by 13.65 points, becoming toss-ups. It would suggest that Hillary would run a lot better against Christie than Obama did against Romney. That's a possibility, but it's probably not the norm.

[Zarn]

Clinton in a landslide

[PolitiJunkie]

I've gone with a similar system to PolitiJunkie, although I do like the division into Safe, Likely and Lean categories.

Safe D (154 EV): Vermont, New York, Washington, California, Illinois, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Hawaii, DC, Maryland, Delaware

Likely D (18 EV): Oregon, Maine, Connecticut

Lean D (37 EV): Nevada, Minnesota, Michigan, New Mexico

Democratic-leaning Toss-Up (54 EV): New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Jersey

Republican-leaning Toss-Up (69 EV): Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Florida

Likely R (86 EV): Arizona, Indiana, South Carolina, Georgia, Montana, Arkansas, Missouri, North Carolina, West Virginia

Safe R (120 EV): Alabama, Mississippi, South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, Utah, Kansas, Oklahoma, Idaho, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Dakota, Texas, Louisiana, Alaska

My assumption is that 2016 is most likely to be a cycle with a slight Republican lean, something that would continue in an election with one of the strongest Democratic candidates VS one of the strongest Republicans.

I don't see Arkansas, a state Obama lost by 23.69 points in 2012 , or Montana, a state Obama lost by 13.65 points, becoming toss-ups. It would suggest that Hillary would run a lot better against Christie than Obama did against Romney. That's a possibility, but it's probably not the norm.

Schweitzer is a very popular governor in Montana, and the Clinton name is very popular in Arkansas. Given electoral polarization, it may be too little too late for Clinton and Schweitzer in Arkansas and Montana respectively, which is why I gave them toss-up status; otherwise they would both lean D. Remember that Obama and Clinton are VERY different candidates.

Also, I fixed your electoral vote numbers, because you had them adding up to 585.