Regarding Rick Santorum

[PPT Spiral]

This is a question I'd like to pose to all of you fine folks. Assuming that Rick Santorum makes another run for president in 2016 (which is virtually guaranteed), how well do you think he'll fare compared to last year? If you ask me, I'm a little conflicted on this. There will be much stronger candidates than what he was up against, and I could easily see him flop from the division of the social conservative vote between a few people. With that said, Santorum could very well have continued success from a devoted base of social conservatives and a network of donors such as Foster Friess. His recent third-place showing at CPAC indicates that there's still at least some capacity to get a strong showing down the road.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

No chance. He'll be running against some actual talent this time.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I think he'll perform worse than he did last time.  He might make it to the late March primaries, but not much further than that.  No later than early April, I'd say.

[Reluctant Republican]

I'm conflicted on this as well. Clearly the field will be a lot stronger in 2016(at least on paper) But I think Santorum has been able to carve out  a niche of the party all for himself. I don't really see another candidate willing to position themselves front and center as the social conservative like Santorum would. Remember that even during the Wall Street Journal debate or whatever, this was a guy who directed the conversation back to social issues, something the other candidates were far less comfortable with.

It looks as though many candidates might be trying to move to the center on social issues, or at least talk about such things as little as possible. In that sort of environment, someone like Santorum can appeal to  a large amount of "Values Voters" if they feel like everyone else is ceding the issues. The only other guy I can see as having the same appeal is Huckabee, and I don't think he's likely to run. Maybe Ben Carson.

[RogueBeaver]

No chance. He'll be running against some actual talent this time.

This. Plus the competitors in question, Rubio/Walker/Jindal/Ryan in particular, are quite comfortable on that terrain even if it isn't their first political preference.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I've no clue. I'd like to think that Americans (and even Republicans) are getting less enamored of ignorance and hate-speech coming from their "leaders", but  I really don't know. With the current Republican party, he could crash and burn, take off like a rocket, or anything in between.

If he does somehow get the nomination, I predict a landslide for the Dems' candidate.

[Likely Voter]

By traditional GOP history he should be seen as a potential front-runner, like Reagan, Dole,  McCain and Romney. But so far polling hasn't been good. This is likely due to his support being thin and essentially just being the last conservative standing against Romney. So against a strong field including a number of strong conservatives, he likely wont make it past SC.

But there is one chance for him or another candidate to run to the right of the pack on the issue of immigration and carry the 'anti-amnesty' flag. The GOP elite and moderates may recognize that the party must stop being anti-immigrant. But the base (or at least a significant portion) hasn't got the memo yet.  If Santorum appears to be the only one 'Standin up for Merican values' he has a chance to at least make it to Super Tuesday by winning an early state or two.

[bballrox4717]

He'll either burn out quickly or perform even better than he did in 2012. I was convinced of the former until his CPAC speech; it still seems that Santorum is beloved by the base and unless the establishment picks a candidate early on like they did with Romney, it's going to be harder to squish Santorum out next time. He has a firm base of supporters to start out with, unlike 2012, and he proved to be an excellent campaigner.

[Keystone Phil]

Some of you will never, ever learn.

Remember that even during the Wall Street Journal debate or whatever, this was a guy who directed the conversation back to social issues, something the other candidates were far less comfortable with.

That is blatantly false. In fact, Santorum spent most of his time talking about his economic/fiscal platform (plans on corporate taxes, bringing manufacturing back to the U.S., a Balanced Budget Amendment, his work on Welfare Reform, etc.) but that doesn't fit the picture that certain people want to paint so the talking heads will continue to say he's all about social issues. We won't let the truth get in the way of things!

Don't get me wrong: Santorum clearly likes to talk about social issues and I, for one, don't think that's a bad thing. See, we are supposed to elect leaders in this country and leaders, whether on the right or the left, don't say things like, "I'm only talking about [insert broad set of issues] during this campaign." Leaders are confronted with far more than just economic issues when they're in office. So while Santorum will show that he has...you know...a spine and talks about other things, it doesn't mean he dwells on social issues nearly as much as his detractors would have you believe.

[All Along The Watchtower]

I don't think it's that he "dwells on" social issues at the expense of economic issues (as if they are somehow separate, of course...) but that his views on social issues are...controversial, to put it charitably.

[Reluctant Republican]

I didn't mean it as a criticism. Santorum was the first person I ever voted for, and while my views have changed considerably(to put it mildly), I have a certain soft spot for him that most gays do not. I'd never vote for him now, but I don't actively hate him either. It would be like hating your first crush.

Indeed he spent most of the debate talking about economic issues, but he also brought up the importance of traditional values in shaping society. It was actually the Bloomberg debate.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'm not saying he spent the entire debate bringing social issues into the mix, but that he was willing to go where no other candidate really was, I think that's important.  If the other candidates all go ECONOMY ECONOMY ECONOMY I think there's an opening for Santorum to be able to appeal to a significant amount of republican voters by connecting fiscal and social problems. Speaking their language, as it were.

[Keystone Phil]

but he also brought up the importance of traditional values in shaping society. It was actually the Bloomberg debate.

Good for him. He was running for President, not CFO. Not to mention, Rick arguably talks about foreign/military policy more than any other type of issue these days. I especially like that since the proponents of an ostrich foreign policy seem to be growing louder these days.

You go on to say that that's an important thing. I applaud that.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

He won't get the support he did in 2012.  Third place at CPAC wasn't a big deal, because at that point, the margin was 1% between him and 4th, and so on.  I doubt he'll run, anyway.  He hasn't really stayed in the news.

[Joe Biden 2020]

He won't get the support he did in 2012.  Third place at CPAC wasn't a big deal, because at that point, the margin was 1% between him and 4th, and so on.  I doubt he'll run, anyway.  He hasn't really stayed in the news.

I think it all depends on the health of his daughter Bella.  There is one thing nobody can take away from Rick.  He is a family man.  So much so, that he puts family before campaigning and certainly before politics.  If she is in good health, I think he runs, but he won't put a presidential campaign before the health of his daughter, or anyone else in his family.

[Lincoln Republican]

Republicans are not going to nominate Santorum for anything.

[Mr. Morden]

I doubt he'll run, anyway.  He hasn't really stayed in the news.

You doubt he'll run?  How many more trips to Iowa does he have to make to convince you?

[Brittain33]

What was Santorum's line about kids going to college? Something unspeakable, right?

[Cory]

I think it all depends on the health of his daughter Bella.  There is one thing nobody can take away from Rick.  He is a family man.  So much so, that he puts family before campaigning and certainly before politics.  If she is in good health, I think he runs, but he won't put a presidential campaign before the health of his daughter, or anyone else in his family.

[Indy Texas]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'm not saying he spent the entire debate bringing social issues into the mix, but that he was willing to go where no other candidate really was, I think that's important.  If the other candidates all go ECONOMY ECONOMY ECONOMY I think there's an opening for Santorum to be able to appeal to a significant amount of republican voters by connecting fiscal and social problems. Speaking their language, as it were.

In all likelihood, the economy will be better in 2016 than it was in 2012. People will still be grumbling about the national debt, but people have always grumbled about it. If the ACA is still around by the primaries, it's never going away. Any discussion of it from then on will be about tinkering with it; instead of "Kill Obamacare!" the battle will focus on things like preventing abortions from being covered and making sure employers aren't required to offer coverage to same-sex partners or something.

There is definitely an opening for Rick Santorum to run as a social conservative - but not as a '90s era SoCon who goes on and on about school prayer and the immorality of Hollywood. If he runs as a social conservative who sees a more traditional family structure as aiding the economic situation of the working class, he could very well have an audience. If he doesn't harp on gay marriage, he could run as the sort of Republican that David Frum and Ross Douthat have been pining for since 2006-ish. If he's willing to bend his party's Randian, laissez-faire economic views, he may even find some sympathetic ears among those in the Democratic Party who are not part of Obama's "gentry coalition" of minorities and upscale whites.

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'm not saying he spent the entire debate bringing social issues into the mix, but that he was willing to go where no other candidate really was, I think that's important.  If the other candidates all go ECONOMY ECONOMY ECONOMY I think there's an opening for Santorum to be able to appeal to a significant amount of republican voters by connecting fiscal and social problems. Speaking their language, as it were.

In all likelihood, the economy will be better in 2016 than it was in 2012. People will still be grumbling about the national debt, but people have always grumbled about it. If the ACA is still around by the primaries, it's never going away. Any discussion of it from then on will be about tinkering with it; instead of "Kill Obamacare!" the battle will focus on things like preventing abortions from being covered and making sure employers aren't required to offer coverage to same-sex partners or something.

There is definitely an opening for Rick Santorum to run as a social conservative - but not as a '90s era SoCon who goes on and on about school prayer and the immorality of Hollywood. If he runs as a social conservative who sees a more traditional family structure as aiding the economic situation of the working class, he could very well have an audience. If he doesn't harp on gay marriage, he could run as the sort of Republican that David Frum and Ross Douthat have been pining for since 2006-ish. If he's willing to bend his party's Randian, laissez-faire economic views, he may even find some sympathetic ears among those in the Democratic Party who are not part of Obama's "gentry coalition" of minorities and upscale whites.

Same-sex marriage will be largely a non-issue in D-leaning states and every imaginable swing state as of 2012. Santorum is enough of a political chameleon to attract enough people of the sorts who did not vote against him in Pennsylvania in 2006. Democrats are going to be silent about him until he wins the nomination, and then they will tie him to Dubya and abuse of power while in the Senate, after which he would be lucky to lose only as badly as Goldwater.

Barring an economic collapse that Republicans can tie to President Obama, Democrats win the Presidency if they keep the "gentry" vote of government employees and middle-class.  minorities. Laissez-faire economics are increasingly being connected to rapacious elites who act as tyrants in their own domains.

The Republican coalition remains the sorts of people who demand that everyone else suffer for their greed so that as obedient servants in abject poverty they can get pie-in-the-sky-when-you-die, their brutal enforcers, and the people who accept the offer.   

[MATTROSE94]

I'm pretty certain that Rick Santorum will carry Iowa and possibly South Carolina, but other than that, it depends on who else decides to run. If either Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush assume front-runner status early on in the race, Santorum would not really have any chance. In addition, if other socially conservative candidates such as Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann or Sam Brownback decide to run, Santorum might not even win in Iowa or drop out fairly early. If it boils down to a race between Chris Christe and Santorum, I'm pretty sure that Santorum would come out on top and win the nomination, as Christe is not exactly adored by the Christian Right and the Tea Party supporters in the Republican Party.

[Keystone Phil]

What was Santorum's line about kids going to college? Something unspeakable, right?

Something totally taken out of context. Per usual.

[Indy Texas]

What was Santorum's line about kids going to college? Something unspeakable, right?

Something totally taken out of context. Per usual.

He said Obama was "a snob" for wanting everyone to go to college (even though Obama never said he wanted everyone to go to college).

[All Along The Watchtower]

What was Santorum's line about kids going to college? Something unspeakable, right?

Something totally taken out of context. Per usual.

He said Obama was "a snob" for wanting everyone to go to college (even though Obama never said he wanted everyone to go to college).

And IIRC, Santorum has a BA, an MBA, and a JD, so.....

[King]

Rick's edge in 2016 compared to 2012, if he has one, is that Paul, Rubio, and Christie might actually, openly run to the left of the base on social issues in the primaries instead of waiting for the genital to make the move.