Kerry up 5 in new CBS/NYTimes poll

[classical liberal]

Maine splits it's EV's based on CD's.

so does nebraska

[Ben.]

How good is the CBS/NYT poll usually?

This message brought to you by the Department of Redundancy Department...  

CBSNews/NYTimes

2000 = dead on.
1980-1996 = utter disaster.

Did they "fix it" in 2000, or did they just get lucky...?

Not!  They have a history of being 8 points off the final result.

except in 2000... but then again CBS/NYT can't be the most impartial source?.... then again Fox polls are usally quite good...

I think that they just copied of of other polls to be honest and as for what Ben said, FOX/Oppinion Dynamics polls are usually quite accurate.

 That’s what I said... wasn’t being sarcastic or anything... normally I approach anything from FOX, CBS, NYT and WSJ as suspect however when it comes to polls I cant deny that FOX have been quite good while in 2000 CBS where right (for once)... Vorlon is right this could be a fluke but maybe they have changed their methodology and become more accurate... we will see...  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Maine splits it's EV's based on CD's.

so does nebraska

Yes... but Kerry doesn't have a hope in hell of carrying one of them

[classical liberal]

maybe omaha. bush only won that one with 40% last time.

[agcatter]

Kerry up 5 nationally?  No way.  Not with Bush at least even in state polls in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.  Those who did that poll have to be smoking something.

[Ben.]

How good is the CBS/NYT poll usually?

This message brought to you by the Department of Redundancy Department...  

CBSNews/NYTimes

2000 = dead on.
1980-1996 = utter disaster.

Did they "fix it" in 2000, or did they just get lucky...?

Not!  They have a history of being 8 points off the final result.

except in 2000... but then again CBS/NYT can't be the most impartial source?.... then again Fox polls are usally quite good...

I think that they just copied of of other polls to be honest and as for what Ben said, FOX/Oppinion Dynamics polls are usually quite accurate.

 That’s what I said... wasn’t being sarcastic or anything... normally I approach anything from FOX, CBS, NYT and WSJ as suspect however when it comes to polls I cant deny that FOX have been quite good while in 2000 CBS where right (for once)... Vorlon is right this could be a fluke but maybe they have changed their methodology and become more accurate... we will see...  

While the WSJ does have a.. perspective.... the firm that does their polling - Teeter/Hart is actually an extraordinarily good firm.  Bob Tetter was Reagan's Pollster (Along with Dick Withlin) and Peter Hart has a very long and dustinguished record on the Democratic side.

WSJ polling is actually about as good as it gets...

I stand corrected...

[Ben.]

 Wow I'm with striking distance of achieving divinity and ascending to that highest of realms on the board... ahh...one step closer!

[zorkpolitics]

The last CBS NY Times poll was a bit out af whack as well.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/03/15/opinion/polls/main606469.shtml
It had Kerry at only 38%,  (no other poll has ever had him below 40) and Nader at 7% (no otehr poll has ever had Nader that high).  

Here is a good way to interpret polls: take the last 6 polls, throw out the one with the highest for Bush and the one with the highest for Kerry and average the remaining 4.

HedgeHog keeps a nice running list of National Polls:
http://www.davidwissing.com/gen2004polls.html

I ifnd it amazing that we are already seeing at least 5 new national polls a week.  Plus Rasmusen is running a Daily Tracking poll.  For the last 30 days Bush and Kerry have each been as high as 49% and as low as 43%.  As of today it's Bush 47 Kerry 46:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

HedgeHog also keeps a page of State polls, and an up to date tally of EV based on state polling.  As of yesterday Kerry leads 271 to 267 EV:
http://www.davidwissing.com/bushkerrystate2004.html

[© tweed]

Welcome back Zork

[The Vorlon]

Here is a good way to interpret polls: take the last 6 polls, throw out the one with the highest for Bush and the one with the highest for Kerry and average the remaining 4.

And if the result of any one poll looks totally crazy... throw it out...

It's not like we have a shortage of polls

[angus]

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/04/02/opinion/polls/main609944.shtml

Third Rate...

CBS/NYTimes..

ok..they got LUCKY in 2000, but from 1980 to 1996 they AVERAGED missing the actually result by 2 and a half times the margin of error of their poll! - If they do ok this year, I might believe them.... maybe...

[/b]
--The Vorlon, March 30, 2004, 12:29:50 am