In what year will Atlas first see a poster cross the 100,000 post mark?

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Barfbag is banned, so his dream of reaching 100,000 posts by the end of the decade is dead.  BRTD's posting rate has slowed down, such that, at current pace, he won't reach 100,000 posts until 2018.  But other top posters have slowed down even faster.  Lewis is gone, so he's out of it.  Both Al and Kalwejt have slowed down enough that they wouldn't reach 100,000 until 2022.  So if BRTD does make it, he'll be the only 100,000+ poster for a long time.

[Stranger in a strange land]

My prediction is that BRTD will pass 100,000 posts shortly after the 2016 presidential election. So let's say sometime in December 2016.

[TDAS04]

BRTD in 2017 is my guess.

[Simfan34]

Since my return, I have been posting at the rate of 22.72 posts per day, for a total of 409 posts in the last 18 days. At that rate, I should add only 6361.6 posts in the remainder of the year. In other words, I won't be reaching 100,000 for a long time.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

At the rate BRTD is going, I wouldn't be surprised if its toward the end of 2014 or early 2015.

That would be over 80 posts a day... that's nowhere close to the rate he's going.

[Mr. Morden]

Even with 2016 being an election year, I don't see BRTD's posting rate increasing so much that he's going to pass it any time soon.  Keep in mind, it's taken him a decade just to reach 70,000.  He needs another 30,000 to reach 100k.  Won't happen until 2018 at the earliest.  And then he'll be the only 100k+ poster for several years, because the other prolific posters are so far behind, and their posting rate has dropped off faster than his has.

EDIT: To put it another way, why would anyone expect BRTD's average posting rate in 2014-2016 to be greater than his average rate in 2004-2013?  OK, so maybe he posts more in election years, and 2016 is an election year, but so were 2004, 2008, and 2012.

[morgieb]

The interesting question is who will be the second to cross 100,000 posts?

[Mr. Morden]

The interesting question is who will be the second to cross 100,000 posts?

Like I said, if average posting rate were to continue indefnitely, it would be either Al or Kalwejt, some time in 2022.  Kalwejt is still way behind, but he registered much later, in 2009, so he's made it up to 37,000 posts very fast.  If he kept going at that rate, he'd get to 100k in 2022, around the same time Al does.

This assumes that Lewis doesn't come back.  If he hadn't left, he'd be another contender for second to 100k.

[Mr. Morden]

There is of course a "regression to the mean" effect.  The most prolific posters of the last decade won't necessarily be the most prolific of the next decade, and so all of these estimates may be too "optimistic".  It wouldn't shock me if, ten years from now, BRTD is still the only one to have reached 100k.