2016 Primary Map Thread

[Mr. Morden]

I don't think it makes sense to count that Virginia poll, since it's a poll of all voters, not just GOP primary voters.  They're counting people who also gave an answer on the Democratic primary question in the poll.  I'd wait to see if they release the crosstabs, so you can see who the Republicans picked.

[Mr. Morden]

You can also add to the map this PPP poll of North Carolina from December which had Rubio in the lead:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/12/nc-gop-voters-prefer-foxx-for-senate.html

[Mr. Morden]

Now that Paul's surged into second place in PPP's latest national poll (and a close third place in Quinnipiac), he's bound to be leading in some states.  Any guesses as to where he'd be leading right now, if PPP or someone else magically polled all 50 states tomorrow, where would Paul be ahead of Rubio, Christie, and the rest of the field?

[Mr. Morden]

I think that paul could be leading in the midwest, and some in the south, and west

Well, Rubio's still ahead nationally, so Paul should only be leading in a minority of states.  Maybe Christie leads throughout the Northeast (+maybe California?), Paul leads in much of the West, and Rubio leads in most of the Midwest and South.  Paul of course leads in Kentucky, but not sure about the rest of Appalachia.  I guess PPP is polling Colorado next, and that should be interesting.  It's the first Western state they will have done (if you don't count Alaska).

[Mr. Morden]

With Purple Strategies  having Romney leading... plan on making a color for him? (I hope not)

The Purple Strategies NH poll was conducted Jan. 21-23.  The UNH/WMUR NH poll was conducted Jan. 21-26.  So the latter (which has Paul in the lead) is more recent.

[Mr. Morden]

7 different leaders in 25 different states - I like it.

Yet looking at 4 of the first states to vote - Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida - it's looking like becoming a rat race between Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush, which would be fairly interesting.

Florida isn't one of the first states to vote anymore.  The order is most likely IA, NH, NV, SC.

[Mr. Morden]

Magellan Strategies (R) polls for 10 states

Red: Jeb Bush
Blue: Chris Christie
Golden: Rand Paul
Brown: Mike Huckabee
Pink: Ted Cruz
Green: Scott Walker
Orange: Ben Carson
(Yellow: Marco Rubio)
White: tie or undecided

The Magellan poll of Iowa was taken April 14-15, and the Daily Caller poll (with Huckabee ahead) was taken April 22-24, so the latter is more recent:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=191652.0

[Mr. Morden]

I think right now, Jeb Bush would probably win the primaries.

Why would you think that when all the national polls that include Romney give him a significant lead:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary

The only reason why Romney isn't leading in most of the polls on this map is because the vast majority of these polls were taken before pollsters started including Romney in their matchups.

[Mr. Morden]

Green: Mitt Romney
Red: Jeb Bush
Blue: Chris Christie
Yellow: Rand Paul
Brown: Mike Huckabee
Pink: Ted Cruz
Orange: Ben Carson
White: tie or undecided

Which reminds me, this map is wrong.  Go to Wikipedia to find the polls, and you'll see that the most recent polls in AR, CO, KS, MA, MI, and NH all have Romney in the lead.  You just didn't color them that way initially because you were only including the matchups without Romney.  But I guess you're now including them?

[Mr. Morden]

I think Warren would win if Hillary didn't run and she decided to. She seems to have a lot of support behind her from liberal groups, while Biden is more of a background player.

In terms of the Republican primary, I was surprised that Carson is leading in NC. That poll was from December of last year, so I'm assuming that the situation hasn't changed dramatically.

I was also surprised Huckabee is leading in Oregon- I would have expected Oregon's Republicans to be moderate Christie supporters.

These Republican primaries are going to be quite a spectacle.

Oregon Republicans are actually solid social conservatives. North Carolina I can't put my finger on.

North Carolina is a more conservative state, and Ted Cruz doesn't have much press in the state, so Carson is the next best pick. I guess that's a decent explanation.

I hardly think Carson counts as a "next best pick" to Cruz at this point, considering that Carson is ahead of Cruz in every recent state and national poll.  Cruz is far enough back in the pack that he's presumably trailing everywhere except Texas at this point.  The only reason why he's leading in six state polls in the map given in this thread is because those polls are all several months old.

[Mr. Morden]

Someone should put together a game of Risk using the above map as the starting positions.

[Mr. Morden]

Isn't this the most recent SC poll?:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=215011.0

It has Bush ahead there.

[Mr. Morden]

Your last map seems to have removed the 9/22 states (e.g., Utah, Missouri...).

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton Collapsing in NJ!

Which New Jersey poll are you referring to?

[Mr. Morden]

Any chance we could switch this to the GOP? The Dem map basically shows a race in upper New England and that weird (probably outlier or at least changed as Sanders has slowly deflated nationally) Utah poll. Dullsville.

I don't think we need to have one or the other.  If Wulfric wants to keep posting the Dem. map, cool.  But if someone else wants to post the GOP map, go for it.

[Mr. Morden]

Not bothering with shading, but I did a map of who is leading on the GOP side in the most recent poll in each state. No polling yet from D.C. or Hawaii. The Kentucky poll is fairly old.

Donald Trump: 35 States
Ben Carson: 13 States
Rand Paul: 1 State

When did we get GOP primary polls in states like Indiana and Vermont?

[Mr. Morden]

Well, scratch that; CNN shows The Donald ahead by double digits in the Hawkeye State.

So even though the Monmouth poll was in the field slightly later, you count the CNN poll instead?