2012 Maastricht-related deficit & debt data for AUT out on Thursday

[Tender Branson]

"Statistik Austria" will release the first numbers for 2012 on Maastricht-deficit and debt this week.

I think (based on reportings through Q3 of 2012) that the deficit will be 2.8-3.2% of GDP.

The debt should be between 73% and 74.5%

EUROSTAT will release the first 2012 numbers for all countries at the end of April.

...

The deficit should be gone by 2016/2017, while the debt should go down to 70%.

In the first 2 months of 2013, the budget reports indicate that the government deficit (not the Maastricht-one) dropped by 36% compared with the first 2 months of 2012.

This is a good sign that for 2013 the Maastricht deficit could drop to 2% from about 3% in 2012. Mostly because tax revenues were up by more than 1% and outlays down by about 8%. And because of the Swiss and Liechtenstein tax deals that bring in additional revenues later this year. And because in 2012, the Austrian banks needed additional government help, while this will be phased out this year, with no further help projected starting next year.

But it would be much better if we could get the debt back down to around 60%, rather than 70%. But this looks hopeless ...

[Tender Branson]

Germany on the other hand, while having a slight surplus last year, still had 82% debt.

Down from 84% in 2011.

But up from 67% in the pre-crisis-year 2008.

It is projected that Germany will reduce their debt to 76% in 2014.

http://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/Deutschland-koennte-2014-erstmals-Schulden-tilgen-Zeitung-2317714

[Tender Branson]

This is how it looked last year, according to the April 2012 Eurostat report:



Malta, Cyprus and Spain have probably higher debt rates than Austria in 2012 already, while the Netherlands is not far behind anymore. Only Sweden, Denmark and Finland have really low debts, as well as the Eastern European countries (but they have other problems).

[Tender Branson]

The actual numbers are:

2.5% deficit (2011: 2.5% as well)

73.4% debt (2011: 72.5%)

http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/070410

These are somewhat better numbers than estimated and it means that the deficit is now twice in a row below the 3% Maastricht-level for penalties by the EU Commission.

[Tender Branson]

The bank helps last year accounted for 0.9% of the deficit, without the bank help the deficit would have been just 1.6% - The bank help will be lower this year (700 million € budgeted vs. 3 billions last year), so the deficit might drop below 2% this year:

Austria Posts Smaller Than Estimated Budget Deficit on Provinces

Austria’s budget deficit held at 2.5 percent of gross domestic product last year, beating the government’s forecast and keeping it below the European Union’s ceiling.

Austrian provinces narrowed their deficit to 0.1 percent of GDP and municipalities swung to a 0.1 percent surplus last year, partly offsetting costs of bank bailout measures, the statistics office in Vienna said in a statement today. The finance ministry had increased its deficit forecast to 3.1 percent in October, above the EU’s ceiling of 3 percent of GDP, following bank aid.

“I thank the provinces and municipalities for their impressive budgetary discipline that is making a significant contribution to the credibility of the Austrian budget policy,” Finance Minister Maria Fekter said in a statement. “We’re well on our way towards a balanced budget.”

The shrinking deficit of provinces as well as higher tax revenues spare Fekter from presiding over a widening budget gap in a year when Greece, Italy and Spain trim their shortfalls. It also cements the Alpine nation’s space among euro-area countries with the soundest public finances and the lowest refinancing costs, such as Germany, Finland and the Netherlands.

Austria’s 10-year yield, which fell to a record low of 1.634 percent last week, was little changed at 1.68 percent at 11:27 a.m. in London. That’s about 41 basis points more than what Germany has to pay creditors for debt with the same maturity.

Nationalized banks KA Finanz AG, Hypo-Alpe-Adria International AG and Oesterreichische Volksbanken AG (VBPS) each needed more than 1 billion euros of additional aid last year. Including dividends and fees the banks are paying, the aid sparked a hole in public finances equivalent to 0.9 percent of GDP. More funds for KA Finanz and Hypo Alpe are earmarked in the 2013 budget.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-03-28/austria-posts-smaller-than-estimated-budget-deficit-on-provinces

[Tender Branson]

France has their 2012 Maastricht figures out as well now:

Deficit: 4.8% (down from 5.3% in 2011)
Debt: 90.2% (up from 85.8% in 2011)

http://www.insee.fr/fr/themes/info-rapide.asp?id=37&date=20130329

This is slightly worse than the Hollande-government wanted it. The government wanted 4.5% deficit and 89.9% debt at the end of 2012.

[Tender Branson]

The Netherlands has their figures for 2012 too:

 4.1% deficit (down from 4.7% in 2011)
71.2% debt (up from 65.2% in 2011)

http://www.cbs.nl/en-GB/menu/themas/dossiers/conjunctuur/publicaties/artikelen/archief/2013/2013-023-pb.htm

...

Maybe the Netherlands will pass our debt level this year.

[Tender Branson]

Sweden (with the best numbers so far):

2012 Deficit: 0.5% (down from 0.2% surplus in 2011)
2012 Debt: 38.2% (down from 38.4% in 2011)

http://www.scb.se/Pages/PressRelease____353361.aspx

[Tender Branson]

Czech Republic:

2012 Deficit: 4.4% (up from 3.3% in 2011)
2012 Debt: 45.8% (down from 40.8% in 2011)

http://www.czso.cz/eng/redakce.nsf/i/notifications_of_the_government_deficit_and_debt_20130329

[Tender Branson]

Estonia beats all:

0.3% deficit and just 10.1% debt

http://www.stat.ee/65278

[Tender Branson]

Finance Minister Maria Fekter has presented the medium-term budget plan today until 2017:

The budget is projected to be balanced by 2016, with a slight surplus by 2017.

The debt as a percentage of GDP is projected to go down to 67% by 2017 and 60% by 2020.

Of course this is only if the economy grows by healthy margins (2-3%) between 2014 and 2020.