Chilean Presidential Election 2013 - Doomsday is here!

[Leftbehind]

Ah, I see. How has the Nueva Mayoría brought in the PCCh, but left the Allendists behind?

[Lumine]

Ah, I see. How has the Nueva Mayoría brought in the PCCh, but left the Allendists behind?

Well, Bachelet wanted both of them in (a Left and Center Left Grand Coalition), but while the Communists decided that they wanted to trust Bachelet and use the opportunity to increase their strength on the Senate and Chamber of Deputies (joining the Nueva Mayoria was the only way, since with a divided left they would  lose most of their current seats), the Allendists decided that they were not going to win anyway and they chose to stick to their main rule: "No Concertacion, no Bachelet."

[Zuza]

Claude was a DC back in 1973 (and hated Allende then, now he seems to adore the former President)

But he was only 16 years old in 1973. It is strange that his then political position is so well known.

[Lumine]

Claude was a DC back in 1973 (and hated Allende then, now he seems to adore the former President)

But he was only 16 years old in 1973. It is strange that his then political position is so well known.

Oh, not here, the side you backed in 1973 if you were older than 10 years old is an issue, and Claude has denied it time after time. The other problem is that according to witnesses it wasn't passive support, it has been said repeteadly that the guy went to Anti-Allende rallies, and he spent a great part of his time saying to classmates and friends that the military had to step in to destroy the "communist threat". True or false, that hurts him.

[Leftbehind]

Thanks again for all the information, Lumine.

[Velasco]

This is not going to be an exciting race, apparently, but the election is in 11 days.

CEP poll (September-October).

Michelle Bachelet (Nueva Mayoría) 47% Evelyn Matthei (Alianza) 14% Franco Parisi (Independent) 10% Marco Enríquez-Ominami (Progressive Party) 7% Marcel Claude Reyes (Humanist Party) 3%. Other candidates under 1%, undecided 16%

http://www.cepchile.cl/PDFs_CEP/encuestaCEP_sep-oct2013-completa.pdf

Last poll in El Mercurio: Bachelet 46.2%; Matthei 21.7%; Parisi 7.9%; Ominami 7.2%; Claude Reyes 1.7%.

http://impresa.elmercurio.com/Pages/NewsDetail.aspx?dt=2013-11-02&dtB=02-11-2013%200:00:00&PaginaId=2&bodyid=3

However, other polls give different and contradictory results and Bachelet has lower percentages. The less generous with the former socialist president are UVM (Viña del Mar University, 27.1%) and Ipsos (32%) polls. Matthei is between 14.3% (Diego Portales University) and 26% (La Segunda). Parisi seems to be the more unpredictable, oscillating between 7.9% (El Mercurio) and 26.1% (EM Antofagasta). Has Parisi chances to become in the surprise of this election?

[Platypus]

That all seems wildly divergent. But is the basic feeling ~40 Bachelet ~20 Matthei ~40 others, with up to half of that being for Parisi?

[Peeperkorn]

Since the moment Bachellet decided to be a candidate, the election turned to be irrelevant.

She made a lot of mistakes (like Transantiago or the destruction of Santiago's public transport system) but at the end her mandate was quite pleasant.

Concerning Allende or Pinochet, Chileans don't give a shInk about it, and the majority of them consider both characters more grey than black and white.

PS: Matthei can only be popular in the most reactionary parts of society.

PS2: Funny to see Ominami in the fourth place.

PS3: If Bachellet doesn't win in the first round, well, all candidates with the exception of Matthei are leftists so...

[Lumine]

Wow, I forgot to update this during October... Well, here we go!

Update: Eleven Days before Doom:

Essentially, Evelyn Matthei started October with a heavy heart. She had sustained a lot of damage in September, and Parisi was getting closer. Thus, she went with her first weapon: her ideas for Chile. Alas, she showed that she had little concrete proposals and she mistreated RN, further alienating them and creating enemies within UDI. Then she went to the attack and blasted Parisi for not playing his employees when he was in charge of a couple schools. And Alas, most people got behind Parisi (despite the fact that he is a populist demagogue), and Matthei finished her collapse. I don't buy the 14% poll, but she is likely between 20 and 25% now, which is a disaster.

Bachelet ignored all the other candidates and played wise candidate, and it payed off, since she managed to bring new life to the Concertacion. Roxana Miranda, Tomas Jocelyn Holt and Ricardo Israel where mostly ignored (despite Jocelyn Holt falling off his bike and then using that as the campaign slogan and Miranda playing class warfare), Marcel Claude ran a successful campaign to unite the left and the ones who truly won something were Ominami and Sfeir. Ominami knows he is not going to win this one, but he grew and he showed himself as a respectable politician, and he has excellent chances to win in 2018. Sfeir, the ecologist, refused to attack the rest of the candidates, and he had great interviews in TV. He is now perceived as reasonable gentleman who actually wants the best for the country, and he might give a surprise.

All in all, all candidates have something to do, something to avoid and something to target. The results are not likely to mirror the polls, but we can make reasonable assumptions:

The Frontrunner:

Bachelet: From 35 to 50%. Unlikely to win a first round (I think), she needs to continue her current style of low-profile and shaking hands. She wins the second round without any trouble, but Ominami and Parisi could make it close.

Second Round Possibilities:

Matthei: From 20 to 30%. Collapsing more and more, she lost RN. Her last chance is to win UDI back and get enough turnout to get to the second round, where she loses in a landslide.
Parisi: The big suprise, this man is already surpassing Matthei thanks to the apparent support of the RN base, many disenchanted people and many centrists. He has a chance to get to the second round, and there his performance becomes unpredictable. UDI will vote for him, but will he get enough independents?
Ominami: Unlikely to surpass Parisi, his success has to be considered in terms of image and public perception, not votes like the last times. Believe it or not, he is in for the long run.

Possible Surprises:

Marcel Claude: After running a creative campaign that successfully targeted the voters that usually vote Communist-Humanist (Juntos Podemos Mas), he might break the 5% votes that candidates like him usually get. If he is extremely lucky, 7 to 10%.
Alfredo Sfeir: The ecologist that won the hearts (and a big part of the minds) of most Chileans by showing that ecologist candidates can be reasonable and they can achieve their objectives. Will he break 5%? That is unpredictable.

Who? I didn't know he/she was a candidate:

Ricardo Israel: Having little to no money and after a campaign centered on social values (anti-abortion and anti gay marriage), Israel struggles to win voters back. Truth be told, he and his party wanted to back Parisi, but he refused to keep his independent profile. Thus, Israel fights a truly useless fight.

Tomas Jocelyn-Holt: Despite his tendency to be arrogant and his relentless attacks on other candidates, Jocelyn-Holt is in no doubt intelligent and capable, and he would make a decent President (despite the fact that he is no friend of the right, I'm voting for him). But he is largely ignored, and he fails to get 1% in the polls.

Roxana Miranda: She is... a special case. No more than 1%, sure, but it's hard to say whether she failed or not. She said what she wanted to say, and she threw a good amount of attacks to the "establishment", so she wasn't really aiming at electoral success.

[Lumine]

Since the moment Bachellet decided to be a candidate, the election turned to be irrelevant.

She made a lot of mistakes (like Transantiago or the destruction of Santiago's public transport system) but at the end her mandate was quite pleasant.

Concerning Allende or Pinochet, Chileans don't give a shInk about it, and the majority of them consider both characters more grey than black and white.

PS: Matthei can only be popular in the most reactionary parts of society.

PS2: Funny to see Ominami in the fourth place.

PS3: If Bachellet doesn't win in the first round, well, all candidates with the exception of Matthei are leftists so...

I agree with you, but in Matthei's case, she had a way to connect with the average chilean. UDI itself gets most of their votes from low income areas (which is why they call themselves UDI Popular), so her problem is based more on Piñera, the constant change of candidates and the personality fight she lost against Bachelet. Parisi is also a right winger, as is Israel, but in the second round Bachelet will indeed win. Golborne and Allamand might have had a chance, but it's over now.

That all seems wildly divergent. But is the basic feeling ~40 Bachelet ~20 Matthei ~40 others, with up to half of that being for Parisi?

More or less, yes, but many people insist on Bachelet winning 51% the first round. That already happened in 1989 and 1993, but times have changed a lot.

This is not going to be an exciting race, apparently, but the election is in 11 days.

CEP poll (September-October).

Michelle Bachelet (Nueva Mayoría) 47% Evelyn Matthei (Alianza) 14% Franco Parisi (Independent) 10% Marco Enríquez-Ominami (Progressive Party) 7% Marcel Claude Reyes (Humanist Party) 3%. Other candidates under 1%, undecided 16%

http://www.cepchile.cl/PDFs_CEP/encuestaCEP_sep-oct2013-completa.pdf

Last poll in El Mercurio: Bachelet 46.2%; Matthei 21.7%; Parisi 7.9%; Ominami 7.2%; Claude Reyes 1.7%.

http://impresa.elmercurio.com/Pages/NewsDetail.aspx?dt=2013-11-02&dtB=02-11-2013%200:00:00&PaginaId=2&bodyid=3

However, other polls give different and contradictory results and Bachelet has lower percentages. The less generous with the former socialist president are UVM (Viña del Mar University, 27.1%) and Ipsos (32%) polls. Matthei is between 14.3% (Diego Portales University) and 26% (La Segunda). Parisi seems to be the more unpredictable, oscillating between 7.9% (El Mercurio) and 26.1% (EM Antofagasta). Has Parisi chances to become in the surprise of this election?

I would trust those last polls more, Bachelet is really popular, but she is not going to steal away the election in a massive landslide. Somehow I don't believe it, even when the right has suffered massive blows this year... Besides, most polls have a bias anyway, so it's hard to trust them.

[Platypus]

Santiago has brilliant public transport

[Velasco]

I would trust those last polls more, Bachelet is really popular, but she is not going to steal away the election in a massive landslide. Somehow I don't believe it, even when the right has suffered massive blows this year... Besides, most polls have a bias anyway, so it's hard to trust them.

I was suspecting that most of polls are biased and not too much reliable. While I was taking a look, I speculated a bit on the possible result in the first round and my conclusion was not so different from yours. My bet is that the 1st round might have some similarity with the 2005 result. Bachelet first with about 45% of the vote. Matthei playing the role of Lavín in 2005 and struggling to reach 25% and the second round. Parisi coming from behind -a mix of Piñera 2005 and Ominami 2009- and threatening the UDI candidate. Ominami coming fourth like Hirsch in 2005.

Santiago has brilliant public transport

Indeed. The users of the Sarmiento Line in Buenos Aires have more reasons to complain. They would like to have a public transport as that of Santiago. Also some Argentinians envy the stability of the Chilean party system but, on the other hand, polls say a majority in Chile is deeply disillusioned by the political system.

[Lumine]

I would trust those last polls more, Bachelet is really popular, but she is not going to steal away the election in a massive landslide. Somehow I don't believe it, even when the right has suffered massive blows this year... Besides, most polls have a bias anyway, so it's hard to trust them.

I was suspecting that most of polls are biased and not too much reliable. While I was taking a look, I speculated a bit on the possible result in the first round and my conclusion was not so different from yours. My bet is that the 1st round might have some similarity with the 2005 result. Bachelet first with about 45% of the vote. Matthei playing the role of Lavín in 2005 and struggling to reach 25% and the second round. Parisi coming from behind -a mix of Piñera 2005 and Ominami 2009- and threatening the UDI candidate. Ominami coming fourth like Hirsch in 2005.

Santiago has brilliant public transport

Indeed. The users of the Sarmiento Line in Buenos Aires have more reasons to complain. They would like to have a public transport as that of Santiago. Also some Argentinians envy the stability of the Chilean party system but, on the other hand, polls say a majority in Chile is deeply disillusioned by the political system.

Indeed, that looks like the safest bet. But Parisi is already ahead of Matthei in two regions (Antofagasta and Aysen), and he drives a lot of turnout, while Matthei's voters are likely to stay home after the past months. Parisi has little to no money, but unlike Matthei, he creates enthusiasm with the people in a way that not even Fra-Fra Errazuriz (a populist businessman who got 15% in 1989) could. Here's his campaign song, BTW: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dv2w2la31eA, "The Power of the People" is a slogan that has proved to be quite popular.

I think the reason behind those polls that show the disenchantment is that Chile is by nature a pessimistic country. The military government chose technocracy instead of ideology (anti-communism aside), and the Concertacion and Piñera chose the same route. As a result, people here don't believe in ideas, they believe in people. If you ask them about their Deputies, Senators or Mayors they approve of them, but they hate the system because it is a mainstream thing to do. The Chilean middle class also faces many problems when it comes to high taxation, low wages (in our opinion, not by comparison) and the perception of corruption and inefficiency the government has. By comparison with our neighbors we are doing great (but we need serious health, environmental, crime and transport reform), but that's not enough. If you ask me, nothing will ever be enough...

[Velasco]

Lol, "El Poder de la Gente". It's not the best campaign song of all time, but it seems that Franco Parisi can connect with The People with simple and direct slogans: "a united country can't go back". If he reaches the second round it might be entertaining.

I think there are many things in the political and institutional system in Chile that might be improved. An excess of stability can drive to a sclerosis of the system and this increases the social dissatisfaction. Among presidential candidates, only Matthei doesn't want to reform or change the 1980 Constitution.

[Peeperkorn]

I think there are many things in the political and institutional system in Chile that might be improved.

My only critique to the Chilean political system it's its apparent elitism. Everyone seems to come from good families and good universities, and the majority of politicians is (very) catholic or pretend it to be.

Congressmen are also on the right of the people in many social liberal issues, especially youngsters.

[Platypus]

'El poder de la gente' is better than anything this country has ever done

[Niemeyerite]

Update needed here.

[Ichabod]

I can do that. Election is Sunday and everyone here knows Bachelet is winning (and big!) with the only doubt about this finishes this Sunday or we need a runoff in 4 weeks .

About the campaigns, the last "important" thing was two Chilean guy who were declared not guilty in a trial about bomb attacks in Santiago and now, they were picked in Zaragoza and the government tried (without success, I think) to create a issue about this.

The most important thing about Sunday elections are the Congressional ones. With Bachelet basically elected, it is very important to know if she is going to have the majorities in both the House and the Senate; if I remember correctly, the parties that support her need 13 or 14 seats out of 20 in the Senate and 69 to 72 seats out of 120 in the House. That doesn't sound so bad, except for the fact that our electoral system is kind of stupid (proportional system but the worst one ever) plus a big gerrymandering.

I hope this helps.

[Niemeyerite]

Wow, thanks!!

[Lumine]

And the election is today! (Sorry for the lack of updates)

I'll be covering the results as a reporter for a local radio station here in my hometown, and while the Presidential election fails to create proper suspense, the Congressional elections (like Ichabod said) are going to be very interesting, just like the Regional Councilors election.

Last thoughts on the candidates:

-Bachelet: Her victory is a foregone conclusion, but I highly doubt she will win the first round with more than 50%, even with depressed right-wing turnout.
-Matthei: She delivered a strong final push, but her supporters are filled with doubts and a lack of enthusiasm. Voters really don't know why is she there and what is her true plan for Chile.
-Parisi: Seems to have lost a lot of support in the polls, and know it's improbable that he makes it to the second round.
-Ominami: Won a lot of good will, but his chances for 2017 will be damaged if he fails to get more than 10%.
-Claude: Saw some damage from several lawsuits, but he might give a suprise.
-Sfeir: Polls put him at 1-2%, so he depends on turnout.
-Miranda: Ready to give another suprise with a strong campaign, but again, it's a matter of turnout.
-Israel: The PRI base is unlikely to vote for him in a landslide (many of them prefer Parisi), and his efforts pretty much collapsed after the debates, despite his appeals to catholic voters.
-Jocelyn-Holt: Had a bad final week, pretty much ignored and alone.

All in all, I expect Bachelet to win the second round against Matthei in landslide, a Nueva Mayoria majority in Congress (but not with enough votes to change the Constitution) and a Bachelet term with far more gridlock than Piñera's term. Like Bachelet's first term, her coalition will tend to constant rebellions and she'll take the pragmatic and centrist approach, disappointing the left once again. Piñera is likely to be rehabilitated with the public, and RN and UDI will have to redefine the terms of their alliance (I personally wish RN to break free, but it's not going to happen). But still, anyone who thinks that Chile will suffer deep changes and that Bachelet will be our savior is (in my opinion) quite deluded. It's like expecting Matthei to take a leftist approach or the UDI finally accepting gay marriage: it's not going to happen.

[Velasco]

Could you tell us in which districts has Nueva Mayoria chances of doubling the Alliance?

Is RN ready to vote in favour of the removal of the nasty binomial system?

[Ichabod]

M..., very difficult questions, polls suck in congressional elections in Chile (as everywhere haha), but I think that districts where Nueva Mayoria has chances are: 2 (Iquique), 3 (Calama) 4 (Antofagasta), 5 (Copiapo), 6 (Vallenar), 8 (Coquimbo), 9 (Illapel), 11 (Los Andes), 18 (Cerro Navia), 19 (Recoleta-Independencia), 25 (San Joaquín, Macul, La Granja), 27 (San Ramon, La Cisterna, El Bosque), 28 (San Miguel, Pedro Aguirre Cerda, Lo Espejo), 32 (Rancagua), 33 (Rengo), 34 (San Fernando), 36 (Curico), 38 (Constitución), 42 (San Carlos), 44 (Concepción), 45 (Coronel), 46 (Lota), 60 (Punta Arenas). Alianza is probably going to keep the two seats in district 23 (by far the richest one in the country)

Chances go from very likely (district 8 ) to very very unlikely (district 19) and, in some cases, maybe it could have some third party candidate with good perfomances (districts 4, 21, 30, 60, etc.)

You can follow the results in www.elecciones.gov.cl (the first ones should be ready around 1900, Chilean time)

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

46% Bachelet
32% Matthei
22% Others

Turnout: 54%

...

But frankly, I have no clue ...

[Ichabod]

Actually even Matthei supporters think that 30% would be be a very good perfomance and that a more realistic result would around 23-28%

[Tender Branson]

Michelle Bachelet's clothing style is great. I like when politicians campaign in pyjamas: