Chilean Presidential Election 2013 - Doomsday is here!

[Lumine]

Michelle Bachelet's clothing style is great. I like when politicians campaign in pyjamas:

Oh, you should see Alfredo Sfeir, the ecologist candidate:

Several memes joke that he looks like Christopher Lee as Count Dooku...

My prediction:

46% Bachelet
32% Matthei
22% Others

Turnout: 54%

...

But frankly, I have no clue ...

As Ichabod said, Matthei passing the 30% threshold would be a victory indeed, so 20-25 would be more in line with the polls... If she manages to do well in Santiago, she might be able to do better than Arturo Alessandri Besa, but, who knows?

Could you tell us in which districts has Nueva Mayoria chances of doubling the Alliance?

Is RN ready to vote in favour of the removal of the nasty binomial system?

Ichabod's list sounds about right, but 32 and 36 will require a lot of work. There are many spoiler candidates making it very complicated. In the Senate, there is a danger of doubling in Punta Arenas (the Alliance is running regional independents here), Antofagasta (only one candidate after the Cruz-Coke disaster), Concepcion and in a part of Santiago (Allamand v. Zalaquett aren't strong enough this time).

And RN might be willing to do so, Carlos Larrain (conservative, head of the establishment) is willing to do so, but ironically it's the liberals within the party that are blocking some of the measures to oppose Larrain himself. If Allamand, Kast and the liberal candidates are elected and they find themselves with greater power, they might back the removal.

[Velasco]

Thanks, Ichabod and Lumine. I'll take a look to those districts tonight before going to sleep...on a second thought, likely tomorrow morning, my time zone is GMT (I don't recall if it's a difference of 5 or 6 hours).

I'm the worst election predictor that ever stepped, so I'm going to follow Tender and you can laugh at me tomorrow.

Michelle Bachelet 48%; Evelyn Matthei 25%; Franco Parisi (The Power of the People) 11%; Ominami 7%; Marcel Claude 3%; others 6%.

[Leftbehind]

I'm the worst election predictor that ever stepped, so I'm going to follow Tender and you can laugh at me

The most inept that ever stepped.

[Double Carpet]

Does anyone have a link for watching Chile TV online?

Thanks!

[eric82oslo]

When will the voting booths close?

[Ichabod]

In 1 hour. Our board of elections gives the first result with an important number of votes  (around 10%) in around 2,5 hours and it is very representative, so many losing candidates concede immediately.

[Lurker]

Nice to see that the Pinochet supporters (UDI) are losing the presidential election.

[Niemeyerite]

My prediction:

Michelle Bachelet 46%
Evelyn Matthei 22%
Franco Parisi 14%
Ominami 9%
Marcel Claude 3%
Alfredo Sfeir 2%
Others 4%

[eric82oslo]

Results after 763,000 valid votes counted (equalling 13,4% of election sites):

1. Michelle Bachelet - 45.65%
2. Evelyn Matthei - 24.9%
3. Franco Parisi - 11.4%
4. Marco Enriquez-Ominami - 10.9%

Everyone else with less than 3% of the vote.

In some Santiago city quarters it's much closer though, and in the richest quarters, Matthei is even in the lead. In the rich Pinochet quarter Las Condes, Matthei has received 60.8% of the vote so far, compared with Bachelet's lackluster 17.3%. Even in Viña del Mar it's pretty close between the two, although Bachelet is so far ahead with about a 5% margin.

Overall in the Santiago province it's Bachelet 39.6% against Matthei's 29.5%. In the greater region of Santiago the percentages are about the same, although Matthei then slips to 28.2%.

You can follow the results here: http://www.eleccionservel.cl/ELECCIONES2013/vistaNavegacionPresidente

[ag]

With 98.66% counted

Bachelet 46.69%
Mattei 25.01%
Ominami 10.96%
Parisi 10.13%
Claude 2.8%
Sfeir 2.34%

Everybody else peanuts.

In Antofagasta, actually, Parisi is in second place. Elsewhere, though, Mattei is second.

[ag]

Diputados (by district)

District 1 (Arica)
Nueva Mayoria (PS/PPD) 44.02%
Si Tu Quieres, Chile Cambia (PRO/PL) 24.40%
Alianza (RN/UDI) 24.03%

Close, but looks like 1 PS, 1 PL (if confirmed, the PL leader Vlado Mirosevic is elected)

District 2 (Iquique)
Nueva Mayoria 38.64%
Alianza 36.86%

1 Communist, 1 UDI

District 3 (Calama)
Nueva Mayoria 49.13%
Alianza 36.45%

1 PRSD, 1 UDI

District 4 (Antofagasta)
Nueva Mayoria 37.33%
Alianza 34%

1 PRSD, 1 RN

The first 4 districts seem to be 4 NM, 3 Alianza, 1 "ominamista"

[ag]

District 5 (Copiapo)
Nueva Maoyria 65.91% - both seats
Alianza 26.97%

1 Communist, 1 Independent left (?)

District 6
Nueva Mayoria 57.15% - both seats
Si tu quieres,.. 22.23%
Alianza 20.61%

1 PRSD, 1 Christian Democrat

District 7
Nueva Mayoria 56.04%
Alianza 34.01%

1 PS, 1 UDI

District 8 (Coquimbo)
Nueva Mayoria 51.89% - looks like both seats!
Alianza 24.79%

Close, but looks like 1 Christian Democrat, 1 Communist

If this holds, these 4 districts give 7 seats to NM and just 1 to Alianza!

[ag]

District 9
Nueva Mayoria 72.08% - both seats
Alianza 21.86%

1 PS, 1 PPD

District 10
Alianza 46.52%
Nueva Mayoria 42.32%

1 UDI, 1 PS

District 11
Nueva Mayoria 55.52%
Alianza 36.53%

1 PPD, 1 RN

District 12
Nueva Mayoria 43.65%
Alianza 42.63%

1 PS, 1 UDI

Alltogether 5 NM, 3 Alianza

The first 12 districts break down 16 NM, 7 Alianza, 1 third party

[ag]

District 13 (Valparaiso)
NM 48.04%
A 33.09%

1 Christian Democrat, 1 RN

District 14 (Viña del Mar)
A 41.66%
NM 39.86%

1 UDI, 1 PPD

District 15
NM 45.4%
A 43.06%

1 Christian Democrat, 1 UDI

District 16
NM 45.3%
A 32.85%

1 Christian Democrat, 1 UDI

4 NM, 4 A for a total  of 20 NM, 11 A, 1 the rest

[ag]

District 17
NM 43.33%
A 31.58%

1 PPD, 1 RN

District 18
NM 50.02%
A 32.79%

1 PPD, 1 RN

District 19
NM 53.59%
A 32.33%

1 Communist, 1 UDI

District 20
NM 46.34%
A 34.22%

1 PPD, 1 UDI

4+4; Total NM 24, A 15, 1 the rest

[ag]

District 21
A 42.12
NM 39.86%

1 RN, 1 PS

District 22 (Santiago)
Independent (Giorgio Jackson, a student leader, NM did not run anyone) 48.14
Alianza 38.2%

1 Independent, 1 Independent Alianza

District 23
Alianza 68.75% - both seats (probably the only district in the country)
NM 21.56%

1 UDI, 1 RN

District 24
NM 40.54
A 36.48%

1 Christian Democrat, 1 UDI (both close)

5 A, 2 NM, 1 I; total 26 NM, 20 A, 2 the rest

[ag]

District 25
NM 58.12% - both seats
A 24.71%

1 PPD, 1 Christian Democrat

District 26 (La Florida)
NM 51.2%
A 35.93%

1 Communist, 1 UDI

District 27
NM 58.19% - both seats
A 26.61%

1 PPD, 1 PS

District 28
NM 51.32%
A 30.66%

1 Communist, 1 RN

District 29
NM 41.18%
A 38.81%

1 PS, 1 RN

District 30
NM 34.52%
A 30.44%
Si tu quieres, Chile cambia 28% (close, but seems no champaign)

1 PS, 1 UDI

8 NM, 4 A; total (for half the seats) 34 NM (PS9+PPD8+PDC7+PCCH6+PRSD3+Ind1), 24 A (UDI14+RN9+Ind1), STQCHC 1 (PL1) , 1 Ind

[ag]

District 31
NM 47.98%
A 39.41%

1 PS, 1 UDI

District 32 (Rancagua)
NM 53.17%
A 40.98%

1 PS, 1 UDI

District 33
NM 59.05% - both seats
A 27.73%

1 Christian Democrat, 1 PPD

District 34
Independent (Alejandra Sepulveda) 42.05%
A 28.48%
NM 25.07%

1 Ind, 1 UDI

NM 4, A 3, Ind 1

total 38 NM (PS11+PPD9+PDC8+PCCH6+PRSD3+Ind1), 27 A (UDI17+RN9+Ind1), STQCHC 1 (PL1) , 2 Ind

[ag]

District 35
NM 49.97%
A 40.59%

1 Christian Democrat, 1 UDI

District 36
NM 56.6%
A 36.06%

1 Christian Democrat, 1 UDI

District 37 (Talca)
NM 49.66%
A 44.06%

1 Ind Left, 1 RN

District 38
NM 57.63%
A 42.36%

1 Christian Democrat, 1 UDI

4+4
total 42 NM (PS11+PDC11+PPD9+PCCH6+PRSD3+Ind2), 31 A (UDI20+RN10+Ind1), STQCHC 1 (PL1) , 2 Ind

[ag]

District 39
NM 57.09%
A 36.02%

1 PPD, 1 UDI

District 40
NM 55.1%
A 41.72%

1 PPD, 1 UDI

District 41
NM 49.92%
A 42.52%

1 PRSD, 1 RN

District 42
NM 64.55% - both seats
A 31.73%

1 Christian Democrat, 1 PPD

NM 5, A 3

total 47 NM (PDC12+PPD12+PS11+PCCH6+PRSD4+Ind2), 34 A (UDI22+RN11+Ind1), STQCHC 1 (PL1) , 2 Ind

[ag]

District 43
NM 54.5%
A 30.36%

1 PPD, 1 UDI

District 44
NM 47.76%
A 34.62%

1 Christian Democrat, 1 UDI

District 45
NM 58.43% - both seats
A 27.73%

1 PS, 1 Christian Democrat

District 46
NM 57.69%
A 36.25%

1 PS, 1 UDI

5 NM, 3 A

total 52 NM (PDC14+PPD13+PS13+PCCH6+PRSD4+Ind2), 37 A (UDI25+RN11+Ind1), STQCHC 1 (PL1) , 2 Ind

[ag]

District 47
NM 56.37% (likely both seats, but extremely close)
A 28.04%

1 PRSD, 1 Ind L (tough the second seat might go to UDI)

District 48
NM 50.44%
A 44.39%

1 Christian Dem, 1 RN

District 49
NM 58.71%
A 37.33%

1 Christian Dem, 1 RN

District 50
NM 56.33%
A 37.12%

1 Christian Dem, 1 RN

5 NM, 3 A

total 57 NM (PDC17+PPD13+PS13+PCCH6+PRSD5+Ind3), 40 A (UDI25+RN14+Ind1), STQCHC 1 (PL1) , 2 Ind

[ag]

District 51
NM 50.99%
A 46.51%

1 PPD, 1 RN

District 52
NM 50.43%
A 46.66%

1 PRSD, 1 RN

District 53
NM 54.22%
A 34.24%

1 Christian Dem, 1 RN (close)

District 54
NM 55.06%
A 38.01%

1 PPD, 1 RN (close)

4+4

total 61 NM (PDC18+PPD15+PS13+PCCH6+PRSD6+Ind3), 44 A (UDI25+RN18+Ind1), STQCHC 1 (PL1) , 2 Ind

[ag]

District 55
NM 57.36%
A 35.79%

1 Christian Dem, 1 UDI

District 56
NM 61.12%
A 30.66% (gets a seat, at this point, but barely)

1 PS, 1 UDI (could be Christian Dem instead)

District 57
NM 50.87%
A 29.7%

1 Christian Dem, 1 UDI

District 58
NM 50.67%
A 36.29%

1 PS, 1 RN

District 59
NM 46.57%
A 38.44%

1 Ind Left, 1 UDI

District 60
NM 32.13%
Independent (Gabriel Boric, a student leader) 26.17%
A 22.2%

1 Chrstian Dem, 1 Ind

6 NM, 5 A, 1 Ind

total 67 NM (PDC21+PS15+PPD15+PCCH6+PRSD6+Ind4), 49 A (UDI29+RN19+Ind1), STQCHC 1 (PL1) , 3 Ind

[ag]

To sum, up, the house seems to be (in brackets change from 2009)

Nueva Mayoria 67 (+10):
   Partido Demócrata Christiana (PDC) 21 (+2)
   Partido Socialista de Chile (PS) 15 (+4)
   Partido por la Democracia (PPD) 15 (-3)
   Partido Radical Socialdemócrata (PRSD) 6 (+1)
   Partido Comunista de Chile (PCCH) 6 (+3)
   Assorted independents 4 (+3)

Alianza 49 (-9)
   Union Demócrata Independiente (UDI) 29 (-8)
   Renovación Nacional (RN) 19 (+1)
   Assorted Independents 1 (-2)

Partido Liberal (PL, previously with Alianza) 1 (+1)
Partido Regionalista de los Independientes (PRI) 0 (-3)
Independents 3 (+1)