Chilean Presidential Election 2013 - Doomsday is here!

[ag]

And the Senate, where 20 seats were contested in 10 districts seems to be

Nueva Mayoría 12
   Partido Socialista de Chile (PS) 4
   Partido por la Democracia (PPD) 3
   Partido Demócrata Christiana (PDC) 2
   Movimento Ámplio Social (MAS) 1
   Assorted independents 2

Alianza 7
   Union Demócrata Independiente (UDI) 5
   Renovación Nacional (RN) 2

Independents 1

[Velasco]

In some Santiago city quarters it's much closer though, and in the richest quarters, Matthei is even in the lead. In the rich Pinochet quarter Las Condes, Matthei has received 60.8% of the vote so far, compared with Bachelet's lackluster 17.3%. Even in Viña del Mar it's pretty close between the two, although Bachelet is so far ahead with about a 5% margin.

Overall in the Santiago province it's Bachelet 39.6% against Matthei's 29.5%. In the greater region of Santiago the percentages are about the same, although Matthei then slips to 28.2%.

It's normal, communes in NE Santiago are Alliance strongholds. It's rather shocking (or maybe not) that Sfeir performed pretty well in those places. Evelyn Matthei topped the polls in the following communes of Metropolitan Santiago:

Vitacura: Matthei 66.84%; Bachelet 12.73%; Sfeir 8.93%; Ominami 6.32%; Parisi 2.47%; Claude 0.91%

Las Condes: Matthei 58.76%; Bachelet 16.67%; Ominami 8.97%; Sfeir 8.43%; Parisi 3.87%; Claude 1.39%

Providencia: Matthei 41.65%; Bachelet 24.65%; Ominami 12.91%; Sfeir 9.56%; Parisi 5.18%; Claude 3.21%.

La Reina: Matthei 36.59%; Bachelet 29.61%; Ominami 13.25%; Sfeir 9.42%; Parisi 5.34%; Claude 3.25%.

Marco Enríquez-Ominami almost doubled Parisi in Santiago Metro. Parisi performed better than Ominami in the rest of the country. In some communes Ominami came very close to Matthei. For example:

Maipú (W of Santiago): Bachelet 39.62%; Matthei 22.15%; Ominami 18.48%; Parisi 10.71%; Claude Reyes 4.5%; Sfeir 2.51%.

La Florida (SE): Bachelet 41.15%; Matthei 23.98%; Ominami 16.2%; Parisi 8.56%; Claude 4.43%; Sfeir 3.22%.

Camila Vallejo has been elected deputy in la Florida. She got 43.77% of the vote; the UDI candidate won the other seat with 24.15%.

Thanks for the compilation, ag.

[Tender Branson]

So, as expected ...

What was turnout like ?

50% ?

[Velasco]

Results by commune.

[Leftbehind]

Good work.

I'm the worst election predictor that ever stepped, so I'm going to follow Tender and you can laugh at me tomorrow.

Michelle Bachelet 48%; Evelyn Matthei 25%; Franco Parisi (The Power of the People) 11%; Ominami 7%; Marcel Claude 3%; others 6%.

What were you saying?

[warandwar]

There's a polling place in Chilean Antartica?

[Ichabod]

Yes, but it is not as Alaska, just few guys from Army, Navy and Air Force live there. It is usually that just 10 or 20 votes come from Antartica

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Yes, but it is not as Alaska, just few guys from Army, Navy and Air Force live there. It is usually that just 10 or 20 votes come from Antartica

There is one civilian settlement, for a certain value of civilian.

[eric82oslo]

So, as expected ...

What was turnout like ?

50% ?

I think it was about 56%, but I'm not sure. About 6.5 million votes, or a little bit more, out of more than 13 million who could cast a vote, sounds more like your 50% though.

[Leftbehind]

Is the voting reform accepted by both alliances?

[Velasco]

Results by candidate and commune in Gretaer Santiago.

[ag]

Seems like the current tally for the House has one more seat for Christian Dems at the expense of the UDI than I had counted (therefore 68 for NM, 48 for A). I haven´t figured out where I am wrong. This would mean Alianza is down to just 40% of the seats. Isn´t it some sort of a threshold for some laws?

[Velasco]

As far as I know, a constitutional reform requires 2/3 of the Congress (80 deputies and 25 senators). Impossible, unless RN is open to negotiate. Bachelet is unwilling to call a Constituent Assembly, but perhaps she won't have another option.

A reform of the electoral law requires 3/5 in the Senate (23) and NM has 21. They need 1 independent and at least 1 RN.

Reforms in education need 4/7 in both chambers (69 and 22). It's feasible with the vote of independents.

Tax and labour reforms require simple majority.

[RodPresident]

In 8th Senatorial candidates, top candidates Soledad Alvear and Laurence Golborne both got defeated.

[Velasco]

I forgot I made this last weekend. Greater Concepcion and Greater Valparaiso by candidate (only top four). Both metropolitan areas have a similar population (slightly less than 1 million).



Best places for Bachelet: Lota (59.03%), Hualqui (58.35%) and Penco (56.59%), all in Greater Concepcion.
Worst places: Concón (34.23%) and Viña del Mar (34.85%), both in Greater Valparaiso.

In Valparaiso commune Bachelet got 44.2% and 40.03% in the proper Concepcion.

Matthei's best performances were in Concón (33.3%) and Viña del Mar and her worst results were in the following communes of Greater Concepcion: Lota (13.69%), Penco (14.01%, 3rd) and Hualpén (15.68%, 3rd). In Valparaíso commune he got 21.95% and in Concepción commune 25.19%. It's curious because those were her worst and best results in Valparaiso and Concepcion metropolitan areas, respectively.

Franco Parisi's top performance was in Talcahuano (20.38%), were he came a close third behind Matthei (20.69%). He surpassed Matthei in several communes of Greater Concepcion, coming second in places like Hualpén (17.96%), Coronel (17.33%) or Penco (15.63%). In Greater Valparaiso he was between 11.24% (Concón) and 13.75% (Quilpué).

Enríquez-Ominami oscillated between 8,32% (Lota, Concepcion) and 12.64% (Quilpué, Valparaiso).

[Velasco]

The ghost of abstention overflies the second round of the presidential election, scheduled today. Fear of a massive abstention is making some people in the left consider a return to mandatory vote. Bachelet looks for the legitimacy of  a crushing victory to take forward her reformist agenda;  Matthei for her part has asked each one of her voters to take a person to the booths in order to work the "miracle". Bachelet's victory is granted for sure, but there's fear of seeing Matthei candidate polling 40%, figure similar to the historical support that has harvested the right in Chile. Actually nobody dares to make predictions, given the novelty of voluntary vote and the enormous apathy around this election.

During the scanty 30 days passed from the first round, Bachelet has obtained importantly alliances: with the Workers' Unitary Central (CUT); the ecologist Alfredo Sfeir; the Democratic Revolution movement, led by former student leader and deputy elect Giorgio Jackson; and even with some politicians in the right, such as senator Antonio Horvath, whose support will be key to put forward some initiatives in the Parliament.

Bachelet's team expect that the addition of new forces to their "mill" will weigh on today's result. However, the heterogeneous composition of the new majority will make reform plans very complex. Gabriel Boric, former student leader himself and Autonomous Left deputy elect, wrote in his Twitter account that Bachelet has "mathematical" but not "political" majority, because internal contradictions "are too deep" in the Nueva Mayoría coalition, which includes a political spectrum betwen the Christian Democracy and the Communists.

Evelyn Matthei was the winner in the last televised debate against Bachelet, who was giving vague and imprecise answers on her program to avoid internal confrontation. The debate's rating was very low, around 30% of share.

[Tender Branson]

Well, time for a prediction then I guess:

64.3% Bachelet
35.7% Matthei

Turnout: 45% (because the Bachelet victory was already clear)

[Velasco]

If someone's interested in the runoff:

http://www.eleccionservel.cl/ELECCIONES2013/vistaNavegacionSegundaVuelta

At this moment (96% reported) is Bachelet 62.23%/ Matthei 37.76%.

The count was quite fast. I think turnout will be 42% or 43%.

[Velasco]

2nd Round results. Bachelet/Matthei margin by commune.

Provisional result with 99.97% reported:

Michelle Bachelet 62.16%

Evelyn Matthei 37.83%

[Tender Branson]

Why do the penguins vote for Matthei ?

[Velasco]

Military staff, I guess. Note that in Antarctica there were only 21 votes cast: 15 for Matthei and 6 for Bachelet. In Cabo de Hornos, in the southern end of Tierra del Fuego, Matthei got 281 votes and Bachelet 180.

Compared with the first round, Evelyn Matthei won a tossup in Concón -a touristic resort N of Valparaiso- and in a handful of communes.

[Sol]

Are the Matthei areas around Santiago super-wealthy enclaves?

[Velasco]

Upper-middle class and wealthy areas in NE Santiago. There are clear socio-economic vote patterns in Greater Santiago communes, because the Chilean capital concentrates a good part of the Chilean population and resources and the areas where the different groups live are clearly delimited in many cases. Obviously there are middle-class and socially mixed communes. However, this election was a kind of landslide for Bachelet. In the 2009-2010 election patterns were similar but not so dual and the UDI has some support among popular classes. Naturally, in the previous election Piñera achieved a massive landslide in NE Santiago. I guess it's better with maps:

Internet access:



Darker areas denote neighbourhoods with higher internet penetration. The 0.55/0.8 area covers Vitacura (wealthiest municipality in Chile) and parts of Lo Barnechea, Las Condes and La Reina. All of them "blue" communes. The 0.38/0.54 area covers most of upper middle-class Providencia and parts of Las Condes (blue), as well sectors of Nuñoa, Peñaloén and La Florida. Bachelet won in last three communes, although the margin in Nuñoa was not so high. Peñaloén is a sort of DC middle-class stronghold (Claudio Orrego) and La Florida is middle class/socially mixed. The latter is the electoral district of deputy elected Camila Vallejo. Poorer communes such as Lo Espejo, La Pintana, Cerro Navia, Renca, etcetera have lower internet penetration and tend to favour Concertación. Those communes recorded huge margins for Bachelet in this election.

Schooling level: People with 12 or more years of education.



In this map the pattern is similar but the darker area stretches towards downtown Santiago and other communes.

These maps belong to a research on the digital gap in Greater Santiago by Cristián Hernández Milla that I haven't read yet. Also, there are interesting documents on Greater Santiago socio-economic groups and typologies of housing. Hash linked a good one in his blog article on Chilean politics.

[Platypus]

All up (as a tourist...) I've spent about 6 weeks in Santiago. It's a fascinating city from a political angle, and I highly recommend spending a day just heading around on the (very high quality) metro to various neighbourhoods. Providencia is more overtly wealthy than the richest parts of Melbourne, yet then you head to Quinta Normal or Quilin which is pretty much in the middle for the city and the visible poverty is worse than the least priviledged areas of Melbourne. Of course, all of Latin America has huge wealth disparity, and poorer Chileans are relatively well off compared to Peru or Bolivia, Brazil or Colombia. But when you head to La Cisterna or even Chacabuco it's quite confronting to think you're only 10 stops away from restaurants that cost more than people earn in a month.