French Municipal Elections 2014: Hashemite's Guide and Official Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thought it might be an idea to compare results in towns where the FN 'won' with how they polled in the last legislatives. List of towns taken from Le Monde. First figure is yesterday, second is the legislatives.

Hénin-Beaumont - 50.2%, 48.2%
Béziers - 44.9%, 21.2%
Saint-Gilles - 42.6%, 48.4%
Fréjus - 40.3%, 28.0%
Tarascon - 39.2%, 39.8%
Forbach - 35.7%, 25.3%
Perpignan - 34.2%, 24.4%
Beaucaire - 32.8%, 33.0%
Avignon - 29.6%, 22.1%
Digne-les-Bains - 27.7%, 13.4%

And another branch of the same ghastly tree:

Orange - 59.8%, 44.0%
Bollène - 49.3%, 23.8%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Depressing, but still interesting. I wonder what those numbers would be like as a % of registered voters (though it might not make a huge difference since turnout was comparable between the two elections).

[Senator Cris]

Predictions for Paris?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Predictions for Paris?

Hidalgo is still the clear favorite, since the left is ahead in all the swing arrondissements. Still, at this point, nightmarish scenarios can't be dismissed.

[Hifly]

Is there anywhere where the Left performed well?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there anywhere where the Left performed well?

Grenoble, apparently. A few other smaller cities as well.

[MaxQue]

Predictions for Paris?

Hidalgo is still the clear favorite, since the left is ahead in all the swing arrondissements. Still, at this point, nightmarish scenarios can't be dismissed.

Well, the right is ahead in the 4th and 9th, but the left can hope to gain the 5th. But, those aren't big arrondissements and wouldn't be enough to change the winner of Paris. 4th and 9th would still result in a roughly 90-70 win for Hidalgo.

Adding left-wing and right-wing votes together by arrondissements gives 96-67 for the left.

Here is a simulator.

http://www.slate.fr/france/83079/municipales-paris-2014-simulateur-resultats

[Zanas]

At this point, the main hopes of pickups for the left are Avignon, Bourges, Bayonne, Verdun and Calais.

The main hopes for the right would need three or four entirely full posts... I'll try and post a number of communes to be followed tomorrow.

We lost my home-town of Clamart Granted, the incumbent PS mayor was mis en examen, but the UMP winner is a total jerk and will turn this quiet little suburb into a hellhole as Pemezec, his mentor, did with neighbouring le Plessis-Robinson.

Maxéville, in Nancy's suburb, finally switched from Radical to PS. I think it's the largest left pickup in the first round, with ca. 10,000 inhab. Nancy won't follow though, with a 99% certainty.

My few hopes are : getting one only non-PCF FG councillor in Paris (Simonnet, in the 20th, though I dislike her ; she got 10 so she maintains, but she'll need 12-13 to get it) ; Forbach not falling to FN (some of my family in law lives there, but I really couldn't go while the FN is in the city-hall) ; Strasbourg staying PS ; picking up Bourges ; taking back Calais (though I hate Hénin).

Finally, I vote in the 5th arrondissement of Paris, and I would find it hilarious that Tibéri makes the right lose one more arrondissement in such a context. Unfortunately, I won't be joining the fun, because the PS refused to offer the FG a merger - not unexpectedly, because of how poorly we performed, but still - so I won't be getting anywhere near voting for the PS. I'll be voting blank, for the very first time of my life in an official election (I had previously done the same in the PS primaries' runoff in 2011).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More towns in the wrong column, so to speak. Smaller ones, I note. Same thing done as before:

Cogolin - 39.0%, 27.2%
Brignoles - 37.1%, 27.0%
Villers-Cotterêts - 32.0%, 31.4%
Cluses - 31.4%, 23.3%
Hayange - 30.4%, 23.4%
Montigney-en-Gohelle - 28.9%, 43.1%

[Zanas]

Pretty maps from Le Monde and Paris municipality there : http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2014/03/25/a-la-loupe-le-premier-tour-des-municipales-a-paris_4389413_4355770.html

We can see a few things there : EELV served as a replacement vote inside the left, not the usual bobo vote pattern. It made serious gains in the 18th and 19th, not particularly hipster sectors...

The FN map is hilarious. Basically it's " OMG OMG I'm living next to the friggin suburb where there are Arabs and riots, OMG".

I didn't know that there were two 8th and two 4th arrondissements. I knew for the 12th and 17th though.

These maps should be very depressing for NKM and the right as a whole. They have no hope whatsoever to win Paris in the near future.

The FG map is also a bit depressing. It also served as a replacement vote, albeit a very more minor one. The big scores are in popular areas, yes, but there are many popular areas where the scores are disappointing.

Oh and finally, I just love where I live : lowest FN, highest turnout, pretty consistent and uniform voting patterns.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hey guys, since we're discussing about the municipals, could you help me out? I'm in the middle of a pretty harsh dilemma regarding whom to vote for this Sunday.

Let me sum it up. Following the first round's results, we will have a three-way runoff. The socialist candidate, whom I voted for on the first round, is a great guy - he's young, smart (went to Sciences Po!) and I sort of know him. He won 11% on the first round though, which means he has no chance in hell to win (my vote could determine whether the  number of seats won by his list though). The two frontrunners are the incumbent right-wing mayor, who came in second with 32%, and the official UMP candidate, who came ahead with 41%. Basically, the incumbent mayor pissed off Valérie Pécresse, the local UMP bigwig, by making some decisions which IMO were clearly for the best interest of Vélizy. So the UMP recruited that stooge to challenge him.

Bottom line is: I'm absolutely convinced that the challenger is a worthless scumbag whose main talent consists of licking asses, and that his projects for the city are likely to screw it up pretty badly. I also feel a bit sad for the mayor, because even though I disagree with most of what he's done I find it disgusting to see him kicked out because he went against the will of the Higher Powers. On the other hand, I find it hard not to vote for the socialist guy, who has no chance to win but is by far the best of the three candidates. It'd be pretty awkward if I see him again and tell him I didn't vote for him...

So what should I do? Vote for the best candidate and risk getting the worst of them? Or hold my nose and vote for a guy I disagree with in order to try preventing the worst outcome? Anyone has some advice?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Vote for the party that you support, which also happens to have a candidate that you sort-of know. The outcome of the real contest won't be decided by voters like you anyway.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Vote for the party that you support, which also happens to have a candidate that you sort-of know. The outcome of the real contest won't be decided by voters like you anyway.

You're certainly right, but even though the likelihood of one vote deciding the election is extremely slight, voting only makes sense if you at least consider this possibility. But yeah, point taken.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I.e. if you're concerned about the challenger, let people who you know to be conservatives know that, in your actually comparatively neutral (given the situation) opinion, he is an obvious scumbag.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I.e. if you're concerned about the challenger, let people who you know to be conservatives know that, in your actually comparatively neutral (given the situation) opinion, he is an obvious scumbag.

Yeah, obviously I should have moved my ass and talked to people, but I was too lazy to do that during a week with plenty of classes and other commitments (it doesn't help that I don't know that many people in general). Anyway, at the end what will happen will happen, and regardless of  what I decide, if things go the wrong way I'll feel bad about my choice.

[Zanas]

You go and vote according to your beliefs. The right will have the candidate and mayor they deserve. It is not absolutely impossible that the incumbent wins this after all, and if vélizéens right-wingers choose the other one, well too bad for them. Chances are if he really is that much of a scumbag he pisses off everyone and the left can recover a bit for next time, as well as the respectable right.

But as Al said, your place is not in this right-wing context.

I'll post a list of towns and cities to be followed shortly.

[Zanas]

Here is this list. For incumbent left, there are four groups. First the large cities of nation-wide importance, basically +100,000. Then average sized cities that are relevant because they are provincial centres. Then relevant cities that are not centres, ie. suburbs or inside a larger urban area. Finally, other cities or towns that have some relevance because of what's going on there.

For incumbent right, well there aren't too much of these that can surprise us, so...

Incumbent left :

Strasbourg
Toulouse
Amiens
St-Étienne
Clermont-Ferrand
Caen
Angers
Tours
Grenoble
Metz
Reims

Pau
Belfort
Quimper
Chambéry
Roanne
Valence
Charleville-Mézières
Cherbourg
Évreux
Angoulême
Bar le Duc
Montbéliard
Brive
Thionville
Sète
La Roche sur Yon
Laval
Alençon

Bobigny
Aubagne
Le Blanc-Mesnil
Lens
Tourcoing
Villejuif
Villepinte
Aulnay sous Bois
Livry-Gargan
Décines
Viry-Châtillon
Villeneuve St-Georges
Bagnolet
Asnières
Colombes
Aubervilliers
Les Ulis
Choisy-le-Roi
Blagnac
Castanet-Tolosan
Colomiers
Vaulx-en-Velin
Bron


Montceau les Mines
Tournus
Montbrison
St-Chamond
Bergerac
St-Claude
Salon de Provence
Port Saint-Louis du Rhône
Lançon
Mallemort
Achères
Moissac
Saintes
Granville
Brignoles
Albertville
Vendôme
Gaillac
Cusset
Pessac
St-Martin d'Hères
Hayange
Port de Bouc
Romilly
Sartène
Thiers
Hennebont
Pamiers
St-Omer
Privas


Incumbent right :

Avignon
Calais
Verdun
Le Raincy (DVD vs. Raoult)
L'Hôpital
Corbeil
Montauban
L'Union (31)
Saumur

[Antonio the Sixth]

You go and vote according to your beliefs. The right will have the candidate and mayor they deserve. It is not absolutely impossible that the incumbent wins this after all, and if vélizéens right-wingers choose the other one, well too bad for them. Chances are if he really is that much of a scumbag he pisses off everyone and the left can recover a bit for next time, as well as the respectable right.

But as Al said, your place is not in this right-wing context.

Yeah, I'll vote for the PS guy. That was the choice I was already leaning for, but I had a few doubts. Thank you guys for the help.

[windjammer]

Well Antonio, you should vote for the lesser evil.

[swl]

For those who understand French, an article about cities in the south who vote for the FN.
http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2014/03/29/dans-le-sud-la-desertion-des-centres-villes-favorise-le-vote-d-extreme-droite_4391984_823448.html
There are more articles like that in the local press, the main lesson is that no one is scared of the FN anymore, even ethnic minorities.

I lived two years in Perpignan and the city is pretty ed up. Dirty, unsafe... I had a small supermarket in my street, every day when the shop closed there was a always a dozen of people, families with children, coming to get their food from the dumpster. And I lived in an average area, not in the ghetto.
It's the same in Béziers, Marseille...

[Zanas]

I'm following the first report on twitter. Seems like Perpignan won't fall into FN hands.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is the chat thing being done again?

[Enno von Loewenstern]

I'm following the first report on twitter. Seems like Perpignan won't fall into FN hands.

Not surprising. There was no chance to take over the town hall for the FN. For them the number of mandates is crucial to establish a reserve squad.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I just voted for the socialist candidate again. I know that if the bad guy prevails by a couple votes I will feel terrible, but at least I know I voted for the objectively better candidate.

[Zanas]

Avignon seems very frightening for now...