French Municipal Elections 2014: Hashemite's Guide and Official Thread

[RogueBeaver]

You continue to be awesome, Hash.

[Hash]

You continue to be awesome, Hash.

Thank you very much.

2.1 Current reforms

In the 2012 campaign, François Hollande promised to abrogate the creation of the territorial councillor and engage in a broader reform of decentralized local government, which has been styled by the government as 'Act III' of decentralization.

The creation of the territorial councillor was repealed in November 2012 by the Parliament.

Debate on the so-called 'Valls law' (officially; Projet de loi relatif à l’élection des conseillers départementaux, des conseillers municipaux et des conseillers intercommunaux, et modifiant le calendrier électoral) is ongoing. The law follows on the abolition of the territorial councillor by proposing a new electoral system for the election of general councillors, sets the rules for the election of intercommunal councillors and modifies the electoral calendar.

Here is a brief rundown of the main aspects of this law:

• Binôme: This is the key aspect of this law and the subject of most heated political debate. For the election of general councillors - which will now be known as 'departmental councillors' in 'departmental councils' - the government has devised a novel electoral system. The number of cantons in each department will be divided by half (which means that there will be a redistricting of cantons), with each canton electing two departmental councillors by 'general ticket' representation in a two-round system. This means that everybody will run in pairs, with one man and one woman, forming a so-called 'binôme paritaire'. Voters, however, will not be able to split their votes between different pairs; they will only vote for a single pair just like they currently vote for a single individual in cantonal elections. The electoral system will not change from the system currently used for cantonal elections (need 50%+1 and 25% of registered voters to win by the first round, all candidates winning over 12.5% of registered voters qualified for the runoff), except that, of course, two members would be returned from each canton.
  The government argues that this new system would guarantee gender parity in departmental assemblies, which remain overwhelmingly male-dominated (parity laws are hard to apply with single-member elections). The new system, by requring a nationwide cantonal redistricting, would finally fix the egregious population disparities between cantons and the massive over or under-representation of certain areas within a single department. For the PS, this novel electoral system allows them to perpetuate the domination of departmental assemblies with the two main parties, but also set aside a few seats for their Green and PRG allies (through the binôme).
  Basically every other party, even the Greens and Left Radicals, oppose the binôme. The right is still bitter over the left repealing its reform, and it accuses the government of conspiring to gerrymander cantons (pretty rich coming from the masters of gerrymandering!). The Greens and smaller parties would have much preferred to elect departmental assemblies by proportional representation.
  Many local elected officials are concerned by the plans to cut the number of cantons in each department in half. Indeed, the binôme idea opens a can of worms on this topic. The plan would not fix the major differences in the average number of voters in each canton from department to department. To make matters even worse, the Senate managed to get the National Assembly to agree to a very loose 30% deviation limit from the departmental average. Secondly, by reducing cantons by half, sparsely populated departments will have small assemblies with councillors representing large cantons with little grassroots connections to local voters. The text currently adopted by the National Assembly includes an article stipulating that no department with a population over 500,00 may have have less than 17 councillors and that no department with a population between 150,000 and 500,000 may have less than 13 cantons.
• Lowering the population threshold for semi-proportional election of municipal councillors: The Valls law would lower the population threshold for the election of municipal councillors by two-round semi-proportional list voting from 3,500 inhabitants to either 500 or 1,000 inhabitants. The Senate, mayors and the right wants the threshold set at 1,000; the government, the left and the National Assembly want the threshold even lower, at 500. This would also apply to the election of EPCI councillors: in communes with over 500/1,000 inhabitants, EPCI councillors would be elected semi-directly by the fléchage system.
  Since the National Assembly will have the final word, the threshold will probably be lowered to 500 people. The proponents of this change argue that it would ensure gender parity in even more municipal councils and allow for the representation of opposition factions. Many, however, are critical of this change despite these laudable goals. As explained previously, small communes - like those with 500 to 1,000 inhabitants - are used to consensual and non-partisan/non-ideological government. By lowering the threshold, this could create two situations: breaking up the old traditions of consensual non-partisan local democracy in small towns by forcing politicized elections on them; but also uncontested elections due to the inability of a particular side (like local opposition) to put together a full list of candidates (this is a major factor: even in towns over 3,500 people, small parties have a hard time finding enough people to put together the mandatory full list of candidates). All in all, this sounds like another Great Idea^TM from the Parisian technocrats who know best.
• Semi-direct of intercommunal councillors: As described above, intercommunal councillors (for communes which use list PR for municipal elections) will now be semi-directly elected by the fléchage system at the same time and on the same list as municipal councillors.
• Modification of the electoral calendar: Regional and 'departmental' elections are postponed from March 2014 to March 2015. Officially to prevent 'electoral overload' in 2014 with municipal elections in March, European elections in June and indirect Senatorial elections in September. Unofficially to save the left's thin Senate plurality in September 2014.
• Minor modification to the number of seats in municipal councils: The number of municipal councillors in communes with 1 to 99 inhabitants would be lowered to 7.
• Re-apportionment of seats in the Conseil de Paris The 7th, 16th and 17th arrdt would lose one seat each in Paris' municipal council while the 10th, 19th and 20th arrdt each gain a seat. This appears to be a slightly more proportional apportionment, but the right complains that the government is adding seats in left-wing sectors and removing seats from right-wing sectors (which is factually correct).

The bill was presented in the Senate first, which rejected it in first reading on January 18 with 165 votes against and 142 votes in favour. Only the PS and Greens voted in favour, the Communists and RDSE (PRG) abstained, the UMP and UDI-UC voted against. The National Assembly adopted an amended text in first reading on February 26, with 272 in favour and 241 against. Only one non-Socialist voted in favour. In second reading, the Senate adopted a version which removed the binôme and rejected lowering the threshold from 1,000 to 500. On April 2, in second reading, the National Assembly adopted a version which reinstated the binôme and 500 threshold. No non-Socialist voted in favour, with the Greens and Left Radicals abstaining. The usual Commission mixte paritaire used to resolve differences between both houses was unable to reach a compromise. This means that both houses will read the final text once again, but the National Assembly will then read it a final time and adopt it.

[Hash]

Not sure if this has become too boring, tedious and legalese for readers; but I'll get through it.

"Act III" of decentralization?

The Valls law deals with the electoral system and calendar for local elections, rather than with the organization and division of powers between territorial collectivities and the State. The present government has been talking up its plans to mark a new step in decentralization, flaunting its project(s) as "Act III" of decentralization. Marylise Lebranchu (Minister for State Reform, Decentralization and the Public Sector) and Anne-Marie Escoffier (Junior Minister for Decentralization) are the two cabinet ministers responsible for this "third act". Lebranchu came up with a gigantic draft law, nearly 200 pages long, which dealt with everything under the sun from intercommunalities, metropolis, the organization of local government in the greater Paris, regions, departments and local finances.

The draft law was due to be debated in cabinet this month, but before it could even be formally presented to cabinet, the government backtracked and announced that it was changing tack on the issue. Instead of presented it as a single piece of legislation (some kind of 'omnibus bill'), Lebranchu's draft will be broken up into three separate bills which will each be presented at different times. The first bill, which will come up for debate in cabinet and later in Parliament the soonest, deals with intercommunalities and the new metropolis status. It is the least controversial subject out of the three main themes addressed in Lebranchu's original law, and the government does not seem to be anticipating significant opposition or resistance. However, the most controversial parts - dealing with local finances, budgets and responsibilities - will not come up for at least a few months. The original bill had sparked much vocal criticism from local elected officials and even Socialist local 'barons' (well represented in the Senate), and it appears as if the government wants to do without a public spat over the issue (like Sarkozy got in 2010) and prefers dialogue with critics and opponents. The second part of the bill, dealing with regions, should come up for debate later this year.

I went through the 20-page overview of the original draft law, a rather verbose, legalese and boring document. I really have no life.

The most relevant aspects, for now, deal with intercommunalities and the metropolis.

The bill wants to strengthen intercommunalities, by devolving more powers - mandatory and optional powers - to all types of EPCI with fiscal autonomy.

CCs, CAs and CUs will now have mandatory responsibility over the promotion of tourism (opening tourist offices), collective and non-collective sanitation, the management of water bodies and the management/maintenance of areas for vagrants/Travellers (gens du voyage). Additionally, CCs will have two additional options to choose from when choosing their optional powers, including urban policy. The population threshold for creating CUs will be lowered to 400,000.

The main aspect of the draft law at this point is the metropolis, to entrench the latest echelon of intercommunalities created by the Sarkozy reform in 2010. Thus far, only one metropolis has been created - Nice - no doubt helped out by the fact that basically every commune in there has a UMP mayor!

The government's bill wants to 'resolve' the complete mess which is intercommunal governance in Île-de-France/Greater Paris. Commentators in France often point out how Paris proper has a fairly small population and a tiny land area, in contrast to the Greater London which governs a far larger (and populous) area. Successive governments have had no clue how to deal with intercommunal governance in Île-de-France, a very touchy topic politically because of how economically, socially and political polarized the region is. More so than in any other urban region in France (even Marseille), partisan differences - tied to class and economics - have made any type of intercommunal governance in the Parisian region a major headache. Right-wing mayors in affluent suburbs don't want to be forced into a big structure with the poorer, left-wing parts which would, they fear, overpower them and force feed them awful things such as poor people in social housing. Left-wing mayors in proletarian suburbs don't want anything to do with right-wingers who would, they fear, overpower them economically and fiscally. And this isn't even taking into account the longstanding fraternal enmity between Socialists and Communists, the clan wars of the UMP in the Hauts-de-Seine or the amusingly Medieval turf wars between mayors (for example, the Balkany-Catoire warfare).

The 2010 reform postponed the issue of Parisian governance till later; this year, the government seems to have the intention of tackling the issue (although I wouldn't hold my breath). According to the bill, the entirety of the Petite Couronne departments (92, 93, 94) will need to be part of an EPCI with fiscal autonomy by January 1 2016.

The bill would also create a kind of super-structure, the Métropole de Paris (to be created in 2016), which will include Paris proper and all EPCI in the statistical 'unité urbaine'. It will not be an EPCI with fiscal autonomy, but rather something akin (in my understanding) to the pôles métropolitains created by the 2010 reform. The goal of this super-structure will be cooperation 'in the metropolitan interest' for economic and sustainable development. From my reading of the draft law, it seems as if most of its responsibilities would be in housing and accommodation. So we would be left with the region, the departments, a metropolitan structure which isn't fiscally autonomous, EPCIs, communes and the city of Paris.

One of the most important parts of this bill, which will probably happen, is the transformation of the Grand Lyon into a territorial collectivity, on January 1 2015. The territory of the current Lyon CU (Grand Lyon), likely expanded, will be transformed into a territorial collectivity which will entirely replace the department (Rhône), and which will have the powers of a EPCI metropolis, a department and some regional responsibilities. This means that what is currently the Rhône department will be amputated of the vast majority of its population, and will have authority and responsibility over the northern half of the current department (the Beaujolais region). The Lyon metropolis will take its place, entirely, in the south of the current department. This, more or less, already appears to be nearly a fait accompli - the mayor of Lyon and president of the CU Gérard Collomb (PS) and the president of the Rhône CG Michel Mercier (UDI) have already reached an agreement.

The bill would create an expanded Aix-Marseille Provence metropolis, on January 1 2015, which will consist of the current CU Marseille Métropole Provnce, the Aix CA, Aubagne CA, and CAs around the Étang de Berre (Salon-en-Provence, Istres, Martigues). It will have the regular powers of a metropolis. However, to alleviate the usual tensions in intercommunal governance in the region, the metropolitan structure will be divided into 'territories' each with a council, which will have a consultative role but could receive some mandatory and/or optional powers from the metropolis.

Finally, the bill would extend the metropolis status, by decree, to all EPCIs with over a population over 400,000 in a statistical urban area of over 500,000 inhabitants. The metropolis, furthermore, will also receive additional powers in environmental protection (public distribution of electricity, creation and maintenance of infrastructures for electric cars/hybrids and management of water bodies) and housing. If it signs a convention with the department, it could be transferred responsibilities over some departmental powers (including social action). These metropolis could, if they so choose, create consultative 'territorial councils' on their territory (but unlike in Marseille, they would not have any powers).

[Hash]

"Act III" of decentralization?

A brief overview of the other parts of the original omnibus draft law, which may or may not appear in the final bills.

Regional powers

• Increased powers in economic development - responsibilities for aid to businesses, supporting innovation, business promotion abroad...
• Management of some or all EU funds for 2014-2020
• Increased powers in transportation - reopening railway lines, inter-regional passenger road transport, coordinating regional transport and transit policies (with the State and other organisms and territorial collectivities)...
• Increased powers in professional training, apprenticeships, teaching, orientation, higher education and research (regional scheme), and student housing

Organization and division of powers

• The Clause de compétence générale for regions and departments will be re-established
• Each level of decentralized government is designated as the 'leader' for certain shared powers: regions will be leaders in economic development and transportation; departments will be leaders in social action, social development, tourism, internet connectivity and territorial solidarity; communes/EPCI will be leaders in air quality, 'the ecological transition' and 'sustainable mobility'¹
• Creation of a Territorial Conference of Public Action (CTAP) in each region. The CTAP will promote dialogue and cooperation between territorial collectivities (in some cases the State), with the aim of organizing and dividing responsibilities for shared powers. The CTAP will be made up of the president of the CR, the presidents of the CG, representatives from each EPCI and, in some cases, the regional and departmental prefects
• A 'Pact of territorial governance' in each region to clarify responsibilities of various territorial collectivities and rationalizing their actions. Only territorial collectivities and EPCIs which have signed on to it will need to respect it, but there will be fiscal incentives to sign on to the pact and those who do not respect the pact will not receive subsidies
• Creation of a High Council of Territories (HCT) to promote direct dialogue between the State and territorial collectivities. The HCT will formulate proposals for reforms affecting territorial collectivities and could deliberate on any draft law affecting the organization of territorial collectivities and their responsibilities. It will be presided by the Prime Minister
• Communal/intercommunal responsibility for energy and management of water bodies is clarified

Local public finances and 'transparency'

• 'Financial transparency' - the executives of territorial collectivities will be held accountable to deliberative assemblies on actions taken following audits
• Stricter rules on budgets in large territorial collectivities
• Mandatory impact studies for all investment projects
• 'Financial responsibility' - regions and departments will participate in paying French fines to the EU in certain cases
• A finance commission will be mandatory in each commune with a population over 50,000
• Each voter will have the right to petition for the inclusion of any matter on the agenda

¹ Jesus Christ, isn't all this fluffy bullsh**t horrible? What the flying hell is 'sustainable mobility'?!

[Zanas]

¹ Jesus Christ, isn't all this fluffy bullsh**t horrible? What the flying hell is 'sustainable mobility'?!

It's basically the ability to think and organize the modes of transportation in a way that will not heighten Earth's global temperature by 5 degrees in 2100...

But I agree that most of this sh**t is fluffy bullsh**t.

[Hash]

People still kinda interested?

[RogueBeaver]

People still kinda interested?

You bet.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm very interested in this, I just lack the time (and, yeah, willpower) to read it right now.

[Zanas]

Are you going to throw a regular bone to chew at us ? I'm missing talking French elections, we have so many smaller countries we discuss here on and on !

[Zanas]

Resurrecting this thread because things are on the move on this election and we have regular polls for large cities. One today for Clermont-Ferrand.

It was ordered by one of UMP's candidates, to test his prospects, so they're polling two UMP options, and and they only test a largely improbable four-tier runoff race. Still, results are interesting, and for once, encouraging for people like me :

FG 18-20 %
PS 27 %
EELV 4-5 %
Modem 14-15 %
UMP-UDI 22-24 %
FN 12 %

Second tour :

FG 21 %
PS-EELV 32 %
UMP-UDI-Modem 33 %
FN 14 %

To compare, Hollande polled 38 %, Joly 2,7 % and Mélenchon 14,5 % in the présidentielles first round in 2012. Thus, we've got something like a 2 point transfer towards the Greens, 4 or 5 towards the Left Front, and probably one or two towards Modem who had polled 9 %.

If that tendency can repeat itself in other places where the FG was already relatively high and can therefore be felt as a credible left-wing alternative to the government, we could have ourselves some interesting results.

[lilTommy]

Resurrecting this thread because things are on the move on this election and we have regular polls for large cities. One today for Clermont-Ferrand.

It was ordered by one of UMP's candidates, to test his prospects, so they're polling two UMP options, and and they only test a largely improbable four-tier runoff race. Still, results are interesting, and for once, encouraging for people like me :

FG 18-20 %
PS 27 %
EELV 4-5 %
Modem 14-15 %
UMP-UDI 22-24 %
FN 12 %

Second tour :

FG 21 %
PS-EELV 32 %
UMP-UDI-Modem 33 %
FN 14 %

To compare, Hollande polled 38 %, Joly 2,7 % and Mélenchon 14,5 % in the présidentielles first round in 2012. Thus, we've got something like a 2 point transfer towards the Greens, 4 or 5 towards the Left Front, and probably one or two towards Modem who had polled 9 %.

If that tendency can repeat itself in other places where the FG was already relatively high and can therefore be felt as a credible left-wing alternative to the government, we could have ourselves some interesting results.

That's really great to hear that the FG is doing well and that PS and EELV are basically holding steady for being the incumbent national government; also the FN doing poorly.
Can you shed light on why this is the case when for EP election polls has the FN at 24% http://rt.com/news/france-far-right-top-poll-045/ ahead of all the others (UMP 22, PS 19%)

[Zanas]

This poll is bullsh**t. It was an internet poll, and it didn't poll according to the interregional constituencies, and we have no heads of lists for the EP elections for any party as of yet. So it was basically an applaudimeter contest, not a useful poll. Still, FN is bound to perform better in the EP election than in the municipal ones, because they won't have candidates everywhere in the latter, and they don't benefit from incumbent effect anywhere, whereas they will indeed run in all seven mainland constituencies in the EP election, they have incumbents, and the vote has a more national touch. Basically, people absolutely don't care who they send to Strasbourg, they won't see them for the 5 following years, so it's easier to elect fascists in that prospect than to be the mayor of their city that they will see all year at ceremonies etc.

[Hash]

Thanks for reviving this thread!

I mean to come back to continue my work/guide if anybody is interested, I've just been way too busy and will continue to be busy for the next month or so... Besides, nothing you could find my thesis-like diarrhea posts you can't find elsewhere probs.

[RogueBeaver]

I for one will patiently and eagerly await the thread's return.

[Zanas]

One new poll today, in a quite critical place for this election : Paris 14th arrondissement, the one where Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet is running. It's done by PollingVox, and the Observatoire du changement politique (Observatory of political change), two structures I have never heard about, so to take with quite a bit of caution. Anyway, the results don't seem too far off, except for the PG list's result in the first round, which is way too high in my opinion. So here goes :

PCF-less FG (basically PG with a few groupuscules) 11
PS-PCF 30
EELV 7
Modem-UDI (Marielle de Sarnez, not a nobody) 13
UMP (NKM) 30
DVD (the UMP 2008 candidate here) 2
FN 7

On the right, these results seem plausible. On the left though, the result of the FG list is due to the wording of the poll : "a list supported by the Parti de gauche and Jean-Luc Mélenchon". This gives name recognition, but in March a nobody will be running and the PCF will do everything in their power to try to show that they are the FG and they are running with the PS. So expect only 4 to 8 % for this PCF-less FG list. The delta will fall into PS and EELV. I would very much like to believe the 11 % score, as I am involved in this campaign's direction, but I don't buy it.

2nd round

Triangulaire option :

PS (they don't even mention PCF there) 48
UMP 36
Modem-UDI 16

Runoff option :

PS 55
UMP 45

So basically it's still pretty safe for the left. In 2008, it had been PS 57, Modem 15, UMP 28. So there are gains on the right, but not anywhere close enough.

Keep in mind that Paris municipales work a bit like the Potus EC. The list which wins an arrondissement gets half of its conseillers de Paris, and then the other half is distributed proportionally among all lists, including the top one. So with 51-49 you get 3/4 of an arrondissement's conseillers.

And the 14th arrondissement is kind of Paris' Ohio or Florida : if the right keeps all their bases from 2008, they only need to win this one to win Paris, and it's the closest they can target (they also say they target the 12th, but they lost 66-34 last time so...).

So for now, Paris is a pretty safe PS hold.

edit : Oh and another interesting thing in this poll, and hilarious. They asked if people favored or opposed the development of social housing in the 14th arrondissement :

Left-wing leaning : 94 for - 5 against
Right-wing leaning : 64 for - 35 against (!!!!!!!)
Total : 84 - 15

[Zanas]

We're getting a few polls now and then for these.

Today : Bordeaux. Juppé reelected in a landslide, of course. 90% of positive opinions !

UMP-UDI-Modem (Juppé) 57%
PS-EELV 30%
FN 7%
FG 4.5%
NPA 1.5%

Yesterday we had a Marseilles poll, but it was city wide so it's pretty much useless since the election is by sector as in Paris and Lyon. Still, here are the results :

1st round

Extreme-left (LO or NPA) (typical of the lazy pollster that doesn't even try to look what's going on locally) 3%
FG 8%
PS 25%
EELV 7%
Modem 5%
UMP-UDI 31%
FN 21%

2nd round

Left 41%
UMP-UDI 40%
FN 19%

Everyone is spinning this as "Mennucci in the lead", but to my knowledge no newspaper has been able to read the right piece of news in that poll : FN is within the margin of error of PS in the first round. With low turnout (which is almost certain), this could easily end up a UMP-FN runoff. I'm even surprised the PS hasn't been using the "vote utile" bullsh**t with this result. I guess they need to install the possibility of MEnnucci winning in the end first, then they will shove the "vote utile" down every left-wing voter's throat throughout the campaign.

Another one, recently : Pau. That's where Bayrou tries again, for the third time. He failed memorably last time in 2008, but this time with the alliance with UDI and possible benevolence of the UMP, he could pull it through.

1st round

Modem-UDI (Bayrou) 29%
PS 27%
Urieta (former PS mayor, mason, that ran with UMP in 2008 against an official PS who won) 16%
UMP 9%
FN 8%
FG 8%
EELV 3%

2nd round

Bayrou (with UMP support) 42%
Left 41%
Urieta 17%

They only tested this runoff option. Beware of the sample (505 people), which means quite a margin of error.

[Hash]

Everyone is spinning this as "Mennucci in the lead", but to my knowledge no newspaper has been able to read the right piece of news in that poll : FN is within the margin of error of PS in the first round. With low turnout (which is almost certain), this could easily end up a UMP-FN runoff. I'm even surprised the PS hasn't been using the "vote utile" bullsh**t with this result. I guess they need to install the possibility of MEnnucci winning in the end first, then they will shove the "vote utile" down every left-wing voter's throat throughout the campaign.

Not quite. Remember that Marseille has not one runoff, but up to eight runoffs, so these city-wide polls are a bit silly and I don't care much about them. There will be a lot of triangulaires, because the threshold it set at valid votes and not 'électeurs inscrits', and maybe a few UMP/PS runoffs in those sectors where the FN is weaker (1, 4) and maybe the off-chance of a fluke PS/FN runoff if the UMP polls like crap in the north (8) or maybe a UMP/FN runoff somewhere. It's all quite unpredictable, and possible that no list will win a majority on council.

[Zanas]

Yeah, let's just ignore this bit you quoted, I was just being... asleep. I was however unaware that there was no "inscrits" threshold to get to the runoff. That could get us quite a number of triangulaires this time.

By the way, as you said, and as I said, polls by sectors are much more useful than city-wide polls for Paris, Lyon and Marseille. So here's one for Marseille's 3rd sector. It's a bit like Paris 14th arrondissement, it's the Florida or Ohio of Marseille.

In 2008, Guérini (yeah...) had lost it by less than 1000 votes to Muselier (51.4-48.6), but it voted 53-47 for Hollande last year. It has 11 Marseille councillors, and the ones in the other sectors are pretty much safe. So it's the swing sector to watch. And we have a poll :

1st round

FG 11%
EELV 5%
PS (maybe Carlotti, but she has to reconcile with Mennucci and beg him for things for her and her friends first) 31%
UMP-UDI-Modem (Bruno Gilles, incumbent sector mayor) 34%
FN 19%

2nd round

Left (FG could ask for the world in the fusion talks in that configuration) 47%
UMP 35%
FN 18%

Beware it's a PollingVox poll, pollster that doesn't even yet have a website... It's the new Jérôme Fourquet thing.

But still, except if UMP ended up merging with FN, which Gaudin always always said he wouldn't, that would mean Marseille going to the left, and that would change the whole coverage of the election. If the PS keeps Paris and Lyon (pretty safe) and conquers Marseille, even if they lose a dozen other average or large cities (pretty sure also), it will not be quite a big loss, and the media will spin it that way.

[Zanas]

We're now getting more and more polls, even in small towns. One I care about is Calais, because my mother's family comes from there and I went there all my youth, despite its ugliness.

Calais is the typical example of a PCF at the end of its tether, that got ousted in 2008 by the UMP allied to, wait for it, the MRC... Basically everyone wanted the victory of the UMP candidate, Natacha Bouchart, in 2008, because it would renew the political class in the city. Jacky Hénin, the former mayor, recycled himself as an MEP, as horrible as he was as mayor.

Now, he is running again... (facepalm x100) Plus Bouchart hasn't lived up to expectations and hasn't done anything really good. So the MRC has ordered a poll to CSA to know if they should ally with her again or go with another list (PS-EELV for instance). Yes, and they even say it openly.

Of course, a long-time dated and exhausted PCF and a useless UMP replacing it favors... you got it, the FN, who really didn't need the help in this department (Pas-de-Calais, 62, is also home to Hénin-Beaumont...)

So these are the figures for the first round :

UMP 31%
FN 23% (basically an unknown candidate...)
FG 21% (with Hénin )
PS-EELV 18% (a PS deputy, not sure if they would merge with the FG list...)
MRC 7%

Beware, two probable lists weren't tested : one radical left (got 4.8% last time), and one DVD with the 2008 FN candidate on it it seems.

They didn't test a runoff, and it can be all over the place. Plus the MRC will now send their little 7% to the better offerer. I guess Bouchart is well placed to be confirmed for now, except in the improbable case of a FG-PS merger with a dynamic and enthusiasm from both sides (I said improbable...)

Yes, Calais is in politics and elections as ugly as it is in flesh...

[Hash]

So there is no chance I will ever even continue this guide (not that it matters) but I will do a shorter but still thorough (hopefully) on my blog in March and I guess I can continue to use this thread and I can obviously answer any questions about anything.

I can start with a few polls:

Paris (Ifop, Dec 13-17)
Hidalgo (PS-PCF-PRG) 39%
NKM (UMP-UDI-MoDem) 38%
De Saint-Just (FN) 9%
Najdovski (EELV) 6.5%
Simonnet (PG) 5%
DVD 1.5%
Other 1%

Hidalgo (PS-PCF-PRG) 52.5%
NKM (UMP-UDI-MoDem) 47.5%

Paris-14 (Ifop, Dec 10-12)
Petit (PS-PCF-PRG) 39%
NKM (UMP-UDI-MoDem) 36%
Leost (FN) 8%
Blauel (EELV) 8%
Chaïbi (PG) 6%
Carrère-Gée (DVD) 1%
Other 2%

Petit (PS-PCF-PRG) 57%
NKM (UMP-UDI-MoDem) 43%

Paris-15 (Ifop, Dec 10-12)
Goujon (UMP-UDI-MoDem) 44%
Hidalgo (PS-PCF-PRG) 37%
Saint-Just (FN) 8%
Dumesnil (EELV) 5%
Poirault-Gauvin (DVD) 2.5%
Giboteau (PG) 2%
Other 1.5%

Goujon (UMP-UDI-MoDem) 48%
Hidalgo (PS-PCF-PRG) 44%
Saint-Just (FN) 8%

Goujon (UMP-UDI-MoDem) 54%
Hidalgo (PS-PCF-PRG) 46%

Older stuff

Pau (Ifop, Nov 11-13)
Bayrou (MoDem-UDI) 29%
Habib (PS)^ 27%
Urieta (Ind. [DVD]) 16%
Boëll (FN) 9%
Dartigolles (FG) 8%
Saubatte (UMP) 8%
Bled (EELV) 3%

Bayrou (MoDem-UDI) 42%
Habib (PS) 41%
Urieta (Ind. [DVD]) 17%

Béziers (Ifop, Nov 8-12)
Aboud (UMP)^ 36%
Ménard (FN) 35%
Du Plaa (PS-EELV) 18%
Couquet (FG) 10%
Other 1%

Aboud (UMP)^ 41%
Ménard (FN) 32%
Du Plaa (PS-EELV) 27%

Argenteuil (Ifop, Nov 4-6)
Doucet (PS-EELV)* 37%
Mothron (UMP) 33%
FN 15%
FG 13%
Other 2%

Toulouse (Ifop, Oct 28-30)
Cohen (PS-PCF-PRG)* 35%
Moudenc (UMP) 35%
Laroze (FN) 10%
Maurice (EELV) 7%
Sellin (PG) 5%
EXG 3%
de Veyrac (UDI) 3%
Plancade (DVG) 1%
Others 1%

Cohen (PS-PCF-PRG)* 51%
Moudenc (UMP) 40%
Laroze (FN) 9%

Cohen (PS-PCF-PRG)* 54%
Moudenc (UMP) 46%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh... Paris seems awfully close.

[Hash]

Another one:

Nice (Ifop, Nov 27-29)
Estrosi (UMP-UDI)* 47%
Allemand (PS-EELV) 18%
Arnautu (FN) 17%
Injey (FG) 6%
Icart/Peyrat (DVD) 5%
Bettati (UMP diss) 4%
Vardon (Nissa Rebela/EXD) 2%
Roullier (Parti niçois) 1%

Estrosi (UMP-UDI)* 54%
Allemand (PS-EELV) 24%
Arnautu (FN) 22%

Christian Estrosi won the 2008 election, comfortably defeating Patrick Allemand (PS) and incumbent mayor, since 1995, Jacques Peyrat. Peyrat is a distasteful Algérie française type, ex-FN (FN deputy in 1986) who was close to Jean-Marie Le Pen but, having been defeated by a hair in several close races, quit the FN in 1994 to move closer to the right while still publicly supporting much of the FN's policies. He was elected mayor in 1995, defeating incumbent RPR mayor Jean-Paul Baréty (1993-1995) by over 10 points in a quadrangulaire with the left and the FN.

Peyrat was also close, however, to the Médecin clan - he was first elected to the municipal council in 1965 when mayor Jean Médecin (1928-1944, 1947-1965) took him under his wing. Médecin the elder, a right-wing nationalist (but, formally, close to the Radicals), was an enthusiastic Pétainiste in 1940 and until the Italian occupation in 1942, and viscerally anti-Gaullist. Médecin is an interesting guy, who successfully set up a 'système Médecin' - a clientelistic network, a distributor of patronage, a local lobby, the expression of a local 'notable' who refused all ties with national parties - a right-winger who could be called a fascist without exaggeration who was on good terms with the local PCF deputy, Virgile Barel; nationalistic but more pro-European and pro-American/NATO than most Gaullists. He was deputy from 1932 to 1962, of some relevance nationally (he ran for President in the 1953 clusterfark) but ultimately not very interested by national politics and, because of his independence and localism, kept away from most Parisian cabinets.

Jacques Médecin succeeded his father in 1965. He was less anti-Gaullist than his father, being instead very much anticommunist; he was still very right-wing (if not far-right; he said he shared 99.9% of the FN's idea, he was pro-apartheid and anti-abortion) and racist. Very crooked, he resigned and fled to Uruguay in 1990, before being extradited to France in 1994 and sentenced in four separate trials but somehow fled back to Uruguay and escaped jail in 1996. While Peyrat wasn't an ally of Jacques Médecin, there was a rather friendly entente between the two men, whose political differences didn't go much beyond the fact that one was open about being in the FN and the other was too closely tied to the dynastic family history to do so. Indeed, in 1995, Peyrat visited Médecin in jail and presented himself as his natural successor. Peyrat, however, didn't set up a 'système' of his own, and joined the RPR in 1996, serving as deputy (1997-1998) and senator (1998-2008).

His time was up in 2008, when the now Sarkozyst UMP had little interest in the old man and was, locally, led by Christian Estrosi - who in those years was known as one of Sarkozy's most loyal footsoldiers. Estrosi is hardly more likable, as far as this horrible bobo leftie is concerned, he's a very law-and-order guy who recently prided himself on his administration beating up Roma and proposed to help other mayors with tips on how to do so. He's also not the brightest bulb, but that's another matter.

Estrosi, along with his sidekick Éric Ciotti, his successor as president of the CG, control the UMP fed in the department. They supported Fillon in 2012 against Copé, who had the backing of local deputies Michèle Tabarot (an irrelevant idiot) and Lionnel Luca (a fascist douche). Fillon's victory in the 06, certainly helped out by some rigging from Estrosi/Ciotti, was a major issue in the clusterfark aftermath (Copé's guys pointed to the 06 to cry fraud).

Marie-Christine Arnautu, the FN candidate, is a vice president of the party and was a regional councillor in Ile-de-France until 2010. She's said to be closely supported by Panzerdaddy, but not on the best of terms with Panzergirl. In fact, Panzergirl wanted her rival Bruno Gollnisch, a charming neo-fascist/Holocaust denier, to run here even if he's more closely tied to the Lyon region. It appears as if Panzerdaddy convinced/imposed her nomination over that of two local candidates, one of whom had Panzergirl's favours. Panzergirl is still walking a tight rope with daddy, and she's careful not to alienate him on major issues so she gave in here. Panzerdaddy, as regional MEP and regional councillor, is granted some free rein in FN affairs in PACA.

Arnautu, Panzerdaddy and Louis Aliot oppose an alliance with Nissa Rebela, the local branch of the racist/white nationalist Bloc identitaire, a rather charming bunch of skinheads, hooligans and neo-fascists who are electorally irrelevant but always getting media coverage because of their provocative actions. Certain Panzergirlites like Nicolas Bay or Steeve Briois (both ex-MNR, and not very well perceived by Panzerdaddy or the old guard) favour an alliance with Vardon's thugs.

Meanwhile, since 2008, Peyrat has moved back towards the far-right and Nissa Rebela in particular. In 2011, he ran in the cantonal elections in Nice-14 with the FN's support, a seat which he held from 1992 to 1998 (winning for the FN), but placed third with only 21.4% and was therefore not qualified for the runoff, in which Estrosi's wife picked up the seat from the PS. In 2012, he backed Panzergirl and was the candidate of the 'Rassemblement Bleu Marine' (aka FN + various sidekicks) in the 1st constituency in Nice against Ciotti and Allemand, winning third with only 16.2%. Peyrat is running for mayor again, originally in an alliance with DVD CG Jean Icart, a UMP dissident who hates Estrosi too, but Icart just broke off said deal.

Also in the running on the right is Olivier Bettati, a UMP CG and former 'adjoint au maire' who has always distrusted Estrosi. Bettati, a copéiste, defeated Estrosi in a cantonal election back in 1994. A few other councillors from the majority also resigned. Estrosi obviously downplays it, for good reason.

[Hash]

Ugh... Paris seems awfully close.

Still little chance of a UMP victory, especially if the 14ème is still that far out of reach for the UMP.

I also figure it won't help that the Parisian UMP, which has been increasingly divided since the dissident clusterfarks in the 2011 senatorials, still thinks airing its dirty laundry is fetch. Charles Beigbeder, a copéiste businessman and brother of the crazy writer Frédéric Beigbeder, is running a dissident list in the 8ème (a right-wing stronghold) which he says is to be equidistant between the FN and the UMP and he wants to 'federate' the various dissident lists springing up everywhere (notably Dominique Tiberi, the son of criminal Jean Tiberi in the 5ème).

On Saturday, NKM hit hard in an interview in Le Parisien, talking about the party (UMP, UDI) HQs complicating her plans by intervening; striking back at Beigbeder quite harshly (Le problème, avec Charles Beigbeider, c’est qu’il m’aime trop ou pas assez. Il a fait devant moi, et pendant des semaines, une danse du ventre endiablée pour être sur mes listes. Quand cela s’est avéré impossible, il m’a agonie d’injures.) and striking down Rachida Dati who had been criticizing her (je crois aussi qu’elle devrait se consacrer à son arrondissement, dans lequel elle mène une bataille difficile). Dati is in fact facing two (largely filloniste) dissidents in the 7ème - former mayor Michel Dumont and former 'premier adjoint' Christian Le Roux. Dumont rightly points out that Dati is completely useless and has no record (Le Petit journal's old episodes about the Conseil de Paris sessions would confirm that she does nothing except laugh, play Tetris, text on her phone, annoy her colleagues or leave early/arrive late).

But now Dati is pissed (C'est trop facile de m'insulter. Nathalie devrait faire attention), Borloo is fuming about the UDI not getting what it bargained for on the UMP-UDI-MoDem lists (and threatening to scuttle even the EP election deals) and the bitchfest is running wild. Le Monde details it with some private details they got their hands on; apparently Borloo considers NKM a liar, NKM is apparently pissed off at him and others and so forth. And the Guiding Star of the 21st Century himself, Poison Dwarf, is not pleased.

[Zanas]

Ugh... Paris seems awfully close.

Still little chance of a UMP victory, especially if the 14ème is still that far out of reach for the UMP.

I also figure it won't help that the Parisian UMP, which has been increasingly divided since the dissident clusterfarks in the 2011 senatorials, still thinks airing its dirty laundry is fetch. Charles Beigbeder, a copéiste businessman and brother of the crazy writer Frédéric Beigbeder, is running a dissident list in the 8ème (a right-wing stronghold) which he says is to be equidistant between the FN and the UMP and he wants to 'federate' the various dissident lists springing up everywhere (notably Dominique Tiberi, the son of criminal Jean Tiberi in the 5ème).

On Saturday, NKM hit hard in an interview in Le Parisien, talking about the party (UMP, UDI) HQs complicating her plans by intervening; striking back at Beigbeder quite harshly (Le problème, avec Charles Beigbeider, c’est qu’il m’aime trop ou pas assez. Il a fait devant moi, et pendant des semaines, une danse du ventre endiablée pour être sur mes listes. Quand cela s’est avéré impossible, il m’a agonie d’injures.) and striking down Rachida Dati who had been criticizing her (je crois aussi qu’elle devrait se consacrer à son arrondissement, dans lequel elle mène une bataille difficile). Dati is in fact facing two (largely filloniste) dissidents in the 7ème - former mayor Michel Dumont and former 'premier adjoint' Christian Le Roux. Dumont rightly points out that Dati is completely useless and has no record (Le Petit journal's old episodes about the Conseil de Paris sessions would confirm that she does nothing except laugh, play Tetris, text on her phone, annoy her colleagues or leave early/arrive late).

But now Dati is pissed (C'est trop facile de m'insulter. Nathalie devrait faire attention), Borloo is fuming about the UDI not getting what it bargained for on the UMP-UDI-MoDem lists (and threatening to scuttle even the EP election deals) and the bitchfest is running wild. Le Monde details it with some private details they got their hands on; apparently Borloo considers NKM a liar, NKM is apparently pissed off at him and others and so forth. And the Guiding Star of the 21st Century himself, Poison Dwarf, is not pleased.

The French right is still in line for the title of "la droite la plus bête du monde"... At least the Parisian one clearly is.

Don't worry Antonio, a 52,5-47,5 poll for Paris as a whole doesn't have a meaning whatsoever. You have to look the arrondissement. As long as the 12th and 14th hold, Paris easily holds. And there are no signs otherwise for the moment.

[Hash]

If anybody cares, here are the most recent polls:

Paris (CSA, Jan 3-7)
NKM (UMP-UDI-MoDem) 39%
Hidalgo (PS-PCF-PRG) 38%
Saint-Just (FN) 8%
Najdovski (EELV) 7%
Simonnet (PG) 5%
Others 3%

Hidalgo (PS-PCF-PRG) 51.5%
NKM (UMP-UDI-MoDem) 48.5%

Paris (Ifop, Jan 2-4)
Hidalgo (PS-PCF-PRG) 39.5% (+0.5)
NKM (UMP-UDI-MoDem) 38.5% (+0.5)
Saint-Just (FN) 9% (nc)
Najdovski (EELV) 6.5% (-0.5)
Simonnet (PG) 5% (nc)
DVD 1% (-0.5)
Others 1% (nc)

Hidalgo (PS-PCF-PRG) 52.5% (nc)
NKM (UMP-UDI-MoDem) 47.5% (nc)

Marseille (Ifop, Jan 2-4)
Gaudin (UMP-UDI) 33%
Mennucci (PS-PCF-PRG) 25%
Ravier (FN) 21%
Coppola (FG) 7%
Zéribi (EELV) 6%
Bennahmias (MoDem) 4%
EXG 1%
Le Sursaut 0.5%
Others 1%

Mennucci (PS-PCF-PRG) 41%
Gaudin (UMP-UDI) 40%
Ravier (FN) 19%

My usual bitching about the usefulness of these polls apply.