French Municipal Elections 2014: Hashemite's Guide and Official Thread

[FredLindq]

Is the cooperation between UMP and Modem (and UDI) in the first round a new phenomena?!

[Hash]

Nationwide, communes over 3500 ppl (CSA, Jan 17-21)
Right/Centre (UMP, UDI, MoDem, DVD) 46%
Left (PS, EELV, PCF, PG, PRG, MRC, DVG) 41%
FN 9%
Others 3%
EXG 1%

Hénin-Beaumont (CSA, Jan 13-14
Steeve Briois (FN) 36%
Eugène Binaisse (PS-EELV)* 34%
Jean-Marc Legrand (UMP) 8%
Pierre Ferrari (DVG) 7%
David Noël (FG) 7%
Gérard Dalongeville (DVG) 6%
Georges Bouquillon (MRC) 2%

Eugène Binaisse (PS-EELV)* 54%
Steeve Briois (FN) 46%

Avignon (Ifop, Jan 16-18)
Cécile Helle (PS-EELV) 28%
Bernard Chaussegros (UMP-UDI)^ 24%
Philippe Lottiaux (FN) 24%
André Castelli (FG) 15.5%
André Seignon (MoDem) 4.5%
Kader Guettaf (DVG) 2%
Jean-François Ceccaldi (Provence Libre/REG-EXD) 1.5%
Olivier Baudry (DLR) 0.5%

Cécile Helle (PS-EELV) 44%
Bernard Chaussegros (UMP-UDI)^ 32%
Philippe Lottiaux (FN) 24%

Cécile Helle (PS-EELV) 33%
Bernard Chaussegros (UMP-UDI)^ 29%
Philippe Lottiaux (FN) 22%
André Castelli (FG) 16%

[Hash]

Paris (Ifop, Jan 23-27)
Anne Hidalgo (PS-PCF-PRG)^ 39.5% (nc)
Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet (UMP-UDI-MoDem) 36.5% (-2)
Wallerand de Saint-Just (FN) 8% (-1)
Danielle Simonnet (PG) 6% (+1)
Christophe Najdovski (EELV) 5.5% (-0.5)
DVD lists 4% (+3)
Other lists 0.5% (-0.5)

Anne Hidalgo (PS-PCF-PRG)^ 54% (+1.5)
Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet (UMP-UDI-MoDem) 46% (-1.5)

Ifop says that it asked questions based on actual lists/candidates in every arrondissement.

Pau (Ifop, Jan 23-24)
François Bayrou (MoDem-UDI-UMP) 36%
David Habib (PS)^ 27%
Yves Urieta (Ind) 13%
Olivier Dartigolles (FG) 9%
Georges de Pachtere (FN) 8%
Eurydice Bled (EELV) 5%
Jean Pichai (DVD) 2%

François Bayrou (MoDem-UDI-UMP) 42%
David Habib (PS)^ 40%
Yves Urieta (Ind) 18%

François Bayrou (MoDem-UDI-UMP) 53%
David Habib (PS)^ 47%

[Hash]

Marseille (CSA, Jan 27-28)
Jean-Claude Gaudin (UMP-UDI)* 37% (+3)
Patrick Mennucci (PS-EELV) 31% (-1)
Stéphane Ravier (FN) 17% (-5)
Jean-Marc Coppola (FG) 9% (+1)
Jean-Luc Bennahmias (MoDem) 3% (nc)
Other list 2%
EXG 1%
Le sursaut <1%

Other lists: Lisette Narducci (PRG) in 2nd sector, Robert Assante (UDI) in 6th sector

Jean-Claude Gaudin (UMP-UDI)* 42% (+1)
Patrick Mennucci (PS-EELV) 41% (nc)
Stéphane Ravier (FN) 17% (-1)

[Hash]

Paris-7 (TNS-Sofres, Jan 16-18)

Rachida Dati (UMP-UDI-MoDem)* 49%
Capucine Edou (PS-PCF-PRG) 20%
Michel Dumont (DVD) 11%
Christian Le Roux (DVD) 9%
Bernadette de la Bourdonnaye (FN) 6%
Bernard Bourdeix (EELV) 3%
Bruno Percebois (PG) 2%

Rachida Dati (UMP-UDI-MoDem)* 53%
Capucine Edou (PS-PCF-EELV-PRG) 25%
Michel Dumont + Christian Le Roux (DVD) 22%

Strasbourg (TNS-Sofres, Jan 9-11)
Roland Ries (PS)* 34%
Fabienne Keller (UMP) 33%
Alain Jund (EELV) 10%
François Loos (UDI) 8%
Jean-Luc Schaffhauser (FN) 7%
Jean-Claude Val (FG) 4%
Elisabeth Del Grande (EXG) 3%
André Kornmann (EXD-FN diss.) 1%

Roland Ries (PS)* 54%
Fabienne Keller (UMP) 46%

[Zanas]

Hash, when mentioning Paris polls, I would like it very much if you could label our lists PG-Ensemble... It's not a big deal, but I'd be glad.

Oh and I'm actually involved in our 7th arrondissement campaign team, of course we're not campainging at all, but 2% would actually be a great result for us there !

By the way, would you happen to have a way of predicting the results in Marseille's sectors from a Marseille wide poll result ? Like a table or rapartition keys ? I've done that for Paris for our lists, but I don't really know Marseille politics at all.

What I'm wondering is basically if the latest poll with Gaudin a bit on top would still result in a PS victory in the decisive 3d sector or not ?

[Hash]

By the way, would you happen to have a way of predicting the results in Marseille's sectors from a Marseille wide poll result ? Like a table or rapartition keys ? I've done that for Paris for our lists, but I don't really know Marseille politics at all.

What I'm wondering is basically if the latest poll with Gaudin a bit on top would still result in a PS victory in the decisive 3d sector or not ?

I'm pretty terrible at doing anything faintly related to math or statistics, and I certainly don't know how you came up with your Euros spreadsheet. I guess the simplest way would be to apply a universal swing from 2008, but that would be problematic because the PCF ran with the PS-Greenies that year. I might recommend using the 2012 legislative elections to complement that. Furthermore, the 2012 elections allow us to have some base for predicting two other major variables: the performances of the two dissident sector mayors, Lisette Narducci (PRG, but actually Guérini's closest stooge) in the second sector (solidly leftie so not of much important to the city-wide result probably) and Robert Assante (ex-UDI, but actually pretty FN lite) in the sixth sector (a much more important wildcard given that the 6th sector could also swing to the left assuming a triangulaire and poor transfers from Assante to the UMP). Unfortunately, Assante ran in a constituency which doesn't include all of the sixth sector (part of the 12th arrdt. is in Andrieux's seat).

Narducci got 22.46% in the whole second sector in 2012; Assante got 7.7% in the part of the sixth sector included in the 1st constituency (Valérie Boyer's seat; Boyer is also the official UMP candidate this year) in 2012.

I suppose a mix of the 2008 results and 2012 results would be the best way of figuring things out. I would certainly love it if you could devise something to allow us to extrapolate actual results from city-wide polling in Marseille.

[Zanas]

Well, for now, what I just did is simply apply a "règle de trois" (don't how it's called english frankly) to the results of this new Marseille poll, considering a uniform swing from last poll. The last poll for sector 3 was nearly at the same time as a Marseille poll, so I applied this.

Basically, the results in the third sector would look like this :
UMP 39%
PS-EELV 34%
FN 15%
FG 11-12%

Then in the second round :
UMP 37%
PS-EELV 47%
FN 16%

UMP's two lost points in the runoff seem a bit off, because UMP has gained much more in its first round score  than in its runoff score Marseille wide. But even if you assume that UMP keeps its base, gains one or two more points from FN and abstention, you could still only look at something like :
UMP 41%
PS-EELV 45%
FN 14%

which is still pretty good for PS. So while we wait for either a new sector 3 poll or for myself to make a table for everything (quite unlikely for Marseille), I would still call Marseille a PS pickup.

[Hash]

Poll dump!

Strasbourg (Ifop, Jan 30-Feb 1)
Roland Ries (PS)* 32%
Fabienne Keller (UMP) 30%
Alain Jund (EELV) 10%
François Loos (UDI) 9%
Jean-Luc Schaffhauser (FN) 8.5%
Jean-Claude Val (FG) 5%
André Kornmann (EXD-FN diss.) 1.5%
LO 1%
Elisabeth Del Grande (PO) 1%
Tuncer Saglamer (Mouvement Citoyen de Strasbourg) 1%
Other list 1%

Roland Ries (PS)* 52%
Fabienne Keller (UMP) 48%

Reims (Ifop, Jan 31-Feb 1)
Arnaud Robinet (UMP-UDI-MoDem) 43%
Adeline Hazan (PS-PCF-EELV-PRG)* 37%
Roger Paris (FN) 13%
Karim Mellouki (PG etc) 6%
Other list 1%

Arnaud Robinet (UMP-UDI-MoDem) 46%
Adeline Hazan (PS-PCF-EELV-PRG)* 42%
Roger Paris (FN) 12%

Reims (CSA, Feb 3-4)
Arnaud Robinet (UMP-UDI-MoDem) 42%
Adeline Hazan (PS-PCF-EELV-PRG)* 38%
Roger Paris (FN) 10%
Karim Mellouki (PG etc) 6%
Thomas Rose (LO) 3%
Thierry Maillard (EXD) 1%
Philippe Walker (DVG) <1%
Other list 1%

Arnaud Robinet (UMP-UDI-MoDem) 45%
Adeline Hazan (PS-PCF-EELV-PRG)* 44%
Roger Paris (FN) 11%

Arnaud Robinet (UMP-UDI-MoDem) 52%
Adeline Hazan (PS-PCF-EELV-PRG)* 48%

[Zanas]

Also, Marseille sector 3 :

UMP-UDI 38%
PS-EELV (Carlotti) 32 %
FN 14 %
FG 11%
Pape Diouf (sort of associative DVG) 5%

Runoff

PS-EELV 44%
UMP 43%
FN 13%

Which is pretty much what I had calculated above, but even closer.

This one is gonna be a nail-biter.

[Hash]

Nice (Ipsos, Jan 28-29)
Estrosi (UMP-UDI)* 49%
Allemand (PS-EELV) 20%
Arnautu (FN) 10%
Injey (FG) 7%
Bettati (UMP diss) 7%
Peyrat (DVD) 5%
Vardon (Nissa Rebela/EXD) 2%

Estrosi (UMP-UDI)* 58%
Allemand (PS-EELV) 29%
Arnautu (FN) 13%

Cannes (Ipsos, Feb 3-4)
David Lisnard (UMP)^ 43%
Philippe Tabarot (UMP) 33%
Anne Majri (PS) 10%
Catherine Dorten (FN) 10%
Dominique Henrot (FG) 3%
Jean-Pierre Villon (AEI) 1%

David Lisnard (UMP)^ 46%
Philippe Tabarot (UMP) 34%
Anne Majri (PS) 12%
Catherine Dorten (FN) 8%

The incumbent deputé-maire since 2001, Bernard Brochand (UMP), is stepping down as mayor but intends to remain as municipal councillor. His dauphin, the young '1er adjoint' and general councillor David Lisnard (UMP) is his candidate. But in the tortuous and factionalized world of UMP 06 politics, the right is divided and the UMP has not officially endorsed any candidate. Lisnard, a filloniste like Brochand and a close ally of local filloniste boss Eric Ciotti, faces Philippe Tabarot, leader of the municipal opposition since 2008 and general councillor. Tabarot is the brother of Michelle Tabarot, the mayor of Le Cannet and the copéiste general-secretary of the UMP. Tabarot ran against Brochand in 2008, and lost by only 1070 votes in a four-way runoff (with 3 right-wing candidates). There's tons of bad blood between the main UMP clans in the city and the department as a whole, and the race has been pretty nasty.

[Hash]

Paris-12 (Ifop, Feb 3-5)
Catherine Baratti-Elbaz (PS-PCF-PRG) 43%
Valérie Montandon (UMP-UDI-MoDem) 34%
Alexis Corbière (PG-Ensemble) 7%
Christophe Najdovski (EELV) 6%
Christian Vauge (FN) 5%
Benoît Pernin (Nous citoyens) 3%
Odile Geffroy (DVD Beigbeder) 1%
Other 1%

Marseille (Ifop, Feb 6-8) - change on Jan 4
Jean-Claude Gaudin (UMP-UDI)* 35% (+2)
Patrick Mennucci (PS-EELV) 29% (-2)
Stéphane Ravier (FN) 22% (+1)
Jean-Marc Coppola (FG)7% (nc)
Pape Diouf (Le sursaut-DVG-MoDem) 4% (-0.5)
Jacques Soubeyrand (PRG-Guérini) 1% (-0.5)
Other list 1%
EXG 1% (nc)

Jean-Claude Gaudin (UMP-UDI)* 41% (+1)
Patrick Mennucci (PS-EELV) 39% (-2)
Stéphane Ravier (FN) 20% (+1)

[Hash]

Corsica provides the obligatory entertainment: http://elections.lefigaro.fr/municipales-2014/2014/02/07/01052-20140207ARTFIG00327-corse-caroline-bartoli-brigue-la-place-de-maire-pour-son-mari.php

[Hash]

Paris-14 (CSA, Feb 10-11)
Carine Petit (PS-PCF-PRG) 40%
Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet (UMP-UDI-MoDem) 35%
Leïla Chaibi (PG-Ensemble) 7.5%
Célia Blauel (EELV) 6.5%
Tiphaine Leost (FN) 6%
Marie-Claire Carrère-Gée (DVD Beigbeder) 4%
Nicolas Mansier (DVC) 1%

Carine Petit (PS-PCF-PRG) 55%
Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet (UMP-UDI-MoDem) 45%

[Hash]

Montpellier (Ifop, Feb 3-5)
Jean-Pierre Moure (PS-EELV) 31%
Jacques Doumergue (UMP-UDI-MoDem) 26%
Philippe Moure (DVG-PS diss) 17%
France Jamet (FN) 13%
Muriel Ressiguier (FG) 10%
Joseph Francis (UDI diss) 2%
Other 1%

I realize this is a bit old, but I found interesting polls for the two major towns in Corsica (where elections are always cool)

Ajaccio (OpinionWay, Dec 9-12 2013)
Simon Renucci (CSD)* 37%
Laurent Marcangeli (UMP) 31%
José Filippi (Femu a Corsica-Corsica Libera-Verdi Corsi) 15%
José Risticoni (FN) 8%
Anne-Marie Luciani (DVG) 4%
François Filoni (DVG) 3%
Jacques Billard (DVD) 2%

Simon Renucci (CSD)* 42%
Laurent Marcangeli (UMP) 34%
José Filippi (Femu a Corsica-Corsica Libera-Verdi Corsi) 16%
José Risticoni (FN) 8%

Simon Renucci (CSD)* 44%
Laurent Marcangeli (UMP) 38%
José Filippi (Femu a Corsica-Corsica Libera-Verdi Corsi) 18%

Simon Renucci (CSD)* 45%
Laurent Marcangeli (UMP+Nats) 44%
José Risticoni (FN) 11%

Simon Renucci (CSD+Nats)* 56%
Laurent Marcangeli (UMP) 33%
José Risticoni (FN) 11%

Simon Renucci (CSD)* 51%
Laurent Marcangeli (UMP+Nats) 49%

Simon Renucci (CSD+Nats)* 55%
Laurent Marcangeli (UMP) 45%

Bastia (OpinionWay, Dec 3-5 2013)
Jean Zuccarelli (PRG-PCF) 33%
Gilles Simeoni (Inseme per Bastia) 25%
Jean-Louis Milani (UMP-UDI) 13%
Francois Tatti (DVG) 12%
Tony Cardi (FN) 6%
Eric Simoni (Corsica Libera) 5%
Emmanuelle de Gentili (DVG) 3%
Jean-François Bacarelli (AEI) 2%
Sylvain Fanti (DVD) 1%

Jean Zuccarelli (PRG-PCF) 38%
Gilles Simeoni (Inseme per Bastia) 36%
Jean-Louis Milani (UMP-UDI) 14%
Francois Tatti (DVG) 12%

Jean Zuccarelli (PRG-PCF-DVG) 44%
Gilles Simeoni (Inseme per Bastia-Corsica Libera) 40%
Jean-Louis Milani (UMP-UDI) 16%

Gilles Simeoni (Inseme per Bastia-Corsica Libera-DVG) 44%
Jean Zuccarelli (PRG-PCF) 40%
Jean-Louis Milani (UMP-UDI) 16%

Jean Zuccarelli (PRG-PCF-DVG) 43%
Gilles Simeoni (Inseme per Bastia) 42%
Jean-Louis Milani (UMP-UDI) 15%

Jean Zuccarelli (PRG-PCF) 60%
Jean-Louis Milani (UMP-UDI-Inseme per Bastia) 40%

Jean Zuccarelli (PRG-PCF) 52%
Gilles Simeoni (Inseme per Bastia-Corsica Libera-Right) 48%

Jean Zuccarelli (PRG-PCF) 58%
Jean-Louis Milani (UMP-UDI-Inseme per Bastia-Corsica Libera) 42%

Jean Zuccarelli (PRG-PCF) 54%
Jean-Louis Milani (UMP-UDI-Inseme per Bastia-Corsica Libera-DVG) 46%

[Hash]

Perpignan (TNS-Sofres, Feb 6-8)
Jean-Marc Pujol (UMP-UDI)* 35%
Louis Aliot (FN) 28%
Jacques Cresta (PS-PCF-PRG) 18%
Jean Codognès (EELV) 11%
Clotilde Ripoull (Perpignan Equilibre, ex-MoDem) 8%

Seems to omit a potential list between the PG and Jacqueline Amiel-Donat, the PS candidate in 2008/2009 now running as a dissident.

Jean-Marc Pujol (UMP-UDI)* 42%
Jacques Cresta (PS-PCF-PRG-EELV) 33%
Louis Aliot (FN) 25%

[Colbert]

the bonapartist party CCB (bonapartist Central Comity) will run on coalition with UMP Laurent Marcangeli (nominated "honorable member" of the CCB)


CCB is active only in Ajaccio. But there is also another micro bonapartist party in France : FB (france bonapartiste) (allied with national-republicanist DLR)

[Hash]

Bordeaux (Ifop, Feb 7-10)
Alain Juppé (UMP-UDI-MoDem)* 57%
Vincent Feltesse (PS-EELV) 24%
Vincent Maurin (FG) 7%
Jacques Colombier (FN) 6%
Philippe Poutou (NPA) 3%
Other 3%

Boulogne-sur-Mer (Ifop, Feb 11-12)
Frédéric Cuvillier (PS-PCF-PRG)* 55%
Antoine Golliot (FN) 20%
David Dubois (UMP) 12%
Richard Honvault (UDI) 4%
PG list 4%
Sébastien Langlois (DVC) 3%
Other 2%

Rodez (Ifop, Feb 4-6)
Christian Teyssèdre (PS-PCF-PRG-DVE)* 45%
Yves Censi (UMP-UDI-PCD) 32%
Matthieu Danen (DVD-FN) 12%
Bruno Bérardi (EELV-DVG) 6%
Guilhem Seyriès (PG) 5%

[Hash]

I missed a lot of polls, but it doesn't seem like anybody really cares. Here are the most important ones I missed:

Hénin-Beaumont (Ifop)
FN 44%
PS-EELV* 35%
Dalongeville (DVG, corrupt former PS mayor) 8%
UMP 6%
FG 5%
MRC 2%

FN 50.5%
PS-DVG 49.5%

Béziers (Ifop)
UMP* 36%
Ménard (journalist, former head of RSF, backed by FN, DLR etc) 36%
PS-EELV-PRG 21%
FG 7%

UMP* 39%
Ménard 35%
PS-EELV-PRG 26%

Biarritz (Ifop)
UMP-UDI-PNB 26%
PRG-PS-PCF-GE 23%
MoDem-AB 17%
Saint-Cricq (DVD) 15%
FN 6%
EELV-FG 5%
Tardits (DVD) 5%
other 3%

UMP-UDI-PNB 30%
PRG-PS-PCF-GE 28%
MoDem-AB 22%
Saint-Cricq (DVD) 20%

UMP-UDI-PNB 42%
PRG-PS-PCF-GE 30%
MoDem-AB 28%

Fréjus (Ifop)
FN 37%
UMP 21%
PS 19%
Elie Brun (DVD, incumbent corrupt mayor kicked out by the UMP) 17%
DVD 4%
UDI 2%

FN 34%
UMP 27%
PS 20%
Elie Brun (DVD) 19%

UMP 38%
FN 37%
PS 25%

Avignon (BVA)
PS-EELV 30%
FN 25%
UMP-UDI* 23%
FG 16%
MoDem 3%
DVG 2%
DLR 1%

PS-EELV 54%
FN 23%
UMP-UDI* 23%

Paris-5 (BVA)
PS-PCF-PRG 36%
UMP-UDI-MoDem 28%
Tiberi (UMP dissident, heir to the local corrupt dynasty) 19%
EELV 6%
PG 6%
FN 5%

PS-PCF-PRG 49%
UMP-UDI-MoDem 31%
Tiberi 20%

PS-PCF-PRG 52%
UMP-UDI-MoDem 48%

PS-PCF-PRG 57%
Tiberi 43%

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm following this thread, FTR.

[MaxQue]

We follow, but there is not much to add to your poll coverage, so, we read, but say nothing.

[windjammer]

Congratulations Hashemite

[Hash]

Forbach (Ifop)

Florian Philippot (FN) 35%
Laurent Kalinowski (PS-EELV-FG)* 33%
Alexandre Cassaro (UMP) 17.5%
Eric Diligent (DVD) 14.5%

Triangulaire runoff:
Florian Philippot (FN) 38%
Laurent Kalinowski (PS-EELV-FG)* 38%
Alexandre Cassaro (UMP) 24%

Forbach (Moselle) is one of the FN's main targets. It is the largest city in Moselle's coal mining basin, and as such it is working-class and economically depressed (14% unemployment, declining population since 1982) town. Despite being very working-class, like most of the coal basin in Moselle, it is historically right-wing - 54.5% for Chirac in 1995, 55.8% for Sarko in 2007, 51.5% for Sarko in 2012 (the PCF is also very weak despite everything). The right governed the city between 1953 and 2008, and generally held the corresponding canton for most of that time as well. The incumbent PS mayor, Laurent Kalinowski (the Polish surname betrays the large Italian, Polish and Spanish immigrant populations in the region), gained the city in 2008 because of a very divided right: incumbent mayor Charles Stirnweiss (UMP, DVD) won 36.7% in the first round, with Kalinowski in second with 31.2% and right-wing dissident Christian Peyron a close third with 26.6%. Although the two right-wing lists merged in the runoff, transfers must have been particularly piss-poor, because Kalinowski won 60.1% in the runoff. Kalinowski had been CG since 2004 and was elected deputy for the 6th constituency in 2012, defeating Panzergirl's campaign director and FN vice-president Florian Philippot in a PS-FN runoff (with only 53.7%: transfers from the UMP incumbent, defeated by the first round, to the FN were very high).

Philippot is an ENA/HEC technocrat and a member of Panzergirl's inner circle of new/young leaders (mainly flashy, media-savvy sycophants who are very polished so that they don't act like fascist lunatics in public like Panzerdaddy, aren't crazy fruitcakes like Collard and don't publicly hang out with Nazis); Philippot himself is not an historic frontiste, he's a former chevènementiste from 2002 (and claims to be a paleo-Gaullist) and joined the FN anonymously in 2008. Like Panzergirl, he is a carpetbagger who has set up shop in the depressed post-industrial Moselle coal basin, which is one of the FN's strongest regions (already before Panzergirl). His carpetbagging naturally displeased some local members, notably the local FN candidate Éric Villain, who won 4.1% as a dissident candidate in June 2012. Nevertheless, Philippot has patched up with Vilain, who is now his campaign manager.

The right is divided, between the official UMP candidate Alexandre Cassaro, the leader of the Jeunes Pop 57 (Jeunes Pop = probably a 20-something moron who wears suits all days and rehashes stale UMP talking points) and basically FN lite; and the local dissident, Eric Diligent, who criticizes Cassaro's FN lite positions and is more centrist. Although they account for 32% of the vote together in the poll, unsurprisingly transfers from one list to another seem to be particularly piss-poor.

One major FN target in Moselle is Hayange - a left-wing city in the industrial (steel works) Fensch valley (of Gandrange/Florange fame), where the FN won 37.8% in the 2012 legislative runoff and where Panzergirl won 26.9% in the first round. The incumbent PS mayor since 1997 is running again, but one of his municipal councillors is running as a dissident; the right is led by the usual local opposition leader; the FN candidate is Fabien Engelmann, a former member of the far-left LO and NPA and expelled CGT member, who already ran for the FN in 2011 and 2012. The other target is L'Hopital, a smaller (pop 5,400, declining population) town in the coal mining basin which had a very big coke factory until 2004 and many coal mining pits (last one closed in 1991). The mayor is PS since 2001, but he was defeated by the first round in the canton of Saint-Avold II in 2011 (FN-UMP runoff between regional FN leader Thierry Gourlot and former L'Hopital mayor Jean Schuler, won by the UMP with 54.9%). The FN vote breaks records here: 37.8% for Panzergirl in 2012, 37.8% for the FN in June 2012, 49% in 2011.

(I can contribute longer posts like this one on any department/city which somebody is interested in, so feel free to ask for more in depth stuff)

[windjammer]

Wow, I'm not sure that the far right gaining some towns would be so awful. After all, they would just show how incompetent they are.

[MaxQue]

Wow, I'm not sure that the far right gaining some towns would be so awful. After all, they would just show how incompetent they are.

I agree, but it would be awful for people living in those cities.