French Municipal Elections 2014: Hashemite's Guide and Official Thread

[Hash]

Béziers (Ipsos)
UMP-UDI-MoDem 37%
Ménard 36%
PS-EELV 20%
FG 7%

UMP-UDI-MoDem 40%
Ménard 34%
PS-EELV 26%

Toulouse (Ipsos)
UMP-MoDem 37%
PS-PCF-PRG 36%
EELV 7%
FN 6%
UDI 4%
PG 4%
DVG 2%
NPA 2%
LO 1%
other 1%

PS-PCF-PRG 51%
UMP-MoDem 49%

Bastia (Ipsos)
PRG-PCF 35%
Simeoni (Nat) 30%
DVG (PRG diss) 12%
UMP 10%
Corsica Libera 5%
FN 4%
AEI 3%
DVD 1%

PRG-PCF 38%
Simeoni (Nat) 38%
DVG (PRG diss) 12%
UMP 12%

Simeoni (Nat) 44%
PRG-PCF 43%
UMP 13%

Simeoni (Nat) 44%
PRG-PCF 40%
DVG (PRG diss) 16%

Simeoni (Nat) 52%
PRG-PCF 48%

Ajaccio (Ipsos)
CSD-PS-PCF-EELV 39%
UMP-UDI 33%
Nats 13%
FN 6%
DVG 4%
DVD 3%
DVD 2%

CSD-PS-PCF-EELV 46%
UMP-UDI 40%
Nats 14%

CSD-PS-PCF-EELV 56%
UMP-UDI 44%

[warandwar]

Does the FLNC still blow up stuff in Corsica? Or have they stopped since the no vote on the autonomy referendum?

[Hash]

Does the FLNC still blow up stuff in Corsica? Or have they stopped since the no vote on the autonomy referendum?

Yeah, but to a much lesser extent. They're not in the news often and their attacks seem to be destruction/attacks/vandalism of public buildings and the like rather than assassinations. Besides, the FLNC is basically a criminal organization/mafia now.

Perpignan (Ifop)
UMP-UDI* 33%
FN 29%
PS-PCF-PRG-MRC 19%
DVG-EELV 10%
DVC 4%
NPA 1%

UMP-UDI* 37%
FN 28%
PS-PCF-PRG-MRC 22%
DVG-EELV 13%

UMP-UDI* 41%
FN 30%
PS-PCF-PRG-MRC 29%

Paris-5 (Ifop)
PS-PCF-PRG 37%
UMP-UDI-MoDem 30%
DVD (Tiberi) 17%
EELV 7%
FN 4%
PG 3%
Beigbeder DVD 2%

PS-PCF-PRG 46%
UMP-UDI-MoDem 34%
DVD (Tiberi) 20%

PS-PCF-PRG 52%
UMP-UDI-MoDem 48%

Pau (CSA)
MoDem-UMP-UDI (Bayrou) 35%
PS-PRG-MRC^ 30%
DVD (Urieta) 14%
FG 9%
FN 8%
EELV 3%
Others 2%

MoDem-UMP-UDI (Bayrou) 42%
PS-PRG-MRC^ 41%
DVD (Urieta) 17%

MoDem-UMP-UDI (Bayrou) 51%
PS-PRG-MRC^ 49%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh, it would be horrible to see Bayrou win thanks to right-wing votes...

[Zanas]

Ugh, it would be horrible to see Bayrou win thanks to right-wing votes...

Why would it be ? He is and has always been a right-wing politician.

[Zanas]

I might as well help Hash a bit : here's Saint-Etienne.


    1er tour

    Gaël Perdriau (UMP-UDI-MoDem) : 35%
    Maurice Vincent (PS-PCF-PRG) : 34%
    Gabriel de Peyrecave (FN) : 16%
    Olivier Longeon (EELV-MRC) : 7%
    Belkacem Merahi (PG) : 4%
    Romain Brossard (Lutte ouvrière) : 2%
    Hubert Patural (Droite sociétale) : 2%


    2e tour

    Maurice Vincent (PS-PCF-PRG-EELV) : 45%
    Gaël Perdriau (UMP-UDI-MoDem) : 41%
    Gabriel de Peyrecave (FN) : 14%

We may be in the margin of error, but the left has more reserves than the right and should keep the mayor.

[Zanas]

And another one for Paris 5e :

Sondage Ifop/Fiducial pour le Vème arrondissement :

1er tour :

Marie-Christine Lemardeley (PS): 37 %
Florence Berthout (UMP-UDI) : 30 %
Dominique Tiberi : 17 %
EELV : 7 %
FN : 4 %
PG : 3 %
Paris Libéré : 2


2nd tour :

Duel :
Marie-Christine Lemardeley (PS): 52 %
Florence Berthout (UMP-UDI) : 48 %

Triangulaire :
Marie-Christine Lemardeley (PS): 46 %
Florence Berthout (UMP-UDI) : 34%
Dominique Tiberi : 20 %

If Tiberi runs in the second round, the arrondissement finally falls into the PS' hands. If the two right-wing lists merge, anything is possible, from bad transfers to last minute recovers as we've seen last time.

Anyway, should be interesting. Poor score for the PG, should be at around 4-5 considering what they get in other arrondissement.

[Hash]

La Rochelle (Ipsos)
Anne-Laure Jaumouillié (PS-PCF)^ 28%
Jean-François Fountaine (PS diss-PRG) 26%
Dominique Morvant (UMP) 19%
Jean-Marc de Lacoste-Lareymondie (FN) 7%
Jean-Marc Soubeste (EELV) 7%
Jessica Delauroy (FG) 6%
Arnaud Jaulin (DVC) 4%
Antoine Colin (LO) 2%
2 random dudes 1%

Anne-Laure Jaumouillié (PS-PCF)^ 39%
Jean-François Fountaine (PS diss-PRG) 34%
Dominique Morvant (UMP) 27%

A basic backgrounder here:
La Rochelle is a leftist stronghold (62.1% Flanby in 2012) and has had a left-wing mayor since 1971. Michel Crépeau (PRG), most famous for being the MRG's presidential candidate in 1981, was mayor between 1971 and 1999 and deputy between 1973 and 1999 (he also served in Mitterrand's first cabinets, from 1981 to 1986). He was succeeded by Maxime Bono (PS), his lieutenant, upon his sudden death in 1999. Bono also inherited Crépeau's seat in the National Assembly. He handily held his constituency in 2002 and 2007, and won reelection to city hall by the first round in 2001 and 2008. In 2008, Bono won 58.9% against 24.5% for Dominique Morvant (UMP) and 7.2% for a MoDem list. Although fairly low profile nationally, he's very popular and has strong networks in the city.

Bono did not stand for reelection in 2012, opening up a famous sh**tstorm which isn't yet over. Bono strongly supported Ségolène Royal's candidacy, acting as her local rep in the city. Without going into the details, which are pretty well known for anybody who followed 2012, Ségo was imposed as PS candidate by Bono and the national party, against the wishes of local folks, led by Olivier Falorni, a regional councillor (who broke with Royal in 2008) and adjoint au maire in La Rochelle. There was no primary, and Falorni announced he would run as a dissident. Bono led the charge against Falorni, which culminated in the PS leadership treating him as little better than the second coming of Satan (but of course Falorni got open and underhanded backing from some Socialists, including Jospin and, obviously, our charming former first lady). A combination of Ségo's horrible campaign (which was basically 'I'm running here because I want a seat and this is what they found, I only care about being president of the National Assembly, now vote for me and shut up'), her polarizing personality (more to the point: the fact that most people now dislike her, even in the PS, and see her as a crazy), right-wing shenanigans (UMP voters who hate Ségo, voting Falorni to defeat her) and Falorni's smooth campaign led to her eventual defeat in a landslide (63-37 in the runoff, with the UMP having been eliminated by the first round). Bono (and Ségo) gained notoriety for breaking the law by publicizing the results of the second round before the polls closed; in a weird, crazy, unforgettable and hilarious episode of the great telenovela known as French politics (Ségo quoting Victor Hugo, Bono calling Falorni as a FN-UMP candidate, Ségo talking about traitors, the horror and anger on both their faces). Obviously, while right-wingers voted en masse for Falorni in the runoff (over 70% on the very right-wing Ile de Ré), he still got a lot of left-wing votes - he did win 58.7% in La Rochelle, which would not be possible without substantial left-wing support (assuming all Sarkozy runoff voters voted for Falorni in the runoff, which is not the case).

Bono is retiring and the sh**tstorm opened in 2012 continues. Unlike in 2012, there was a primary, between Maxime Bono's candidate, Anne-Laure Jaumouillié, a 34-year old teacher who has been a municipal councillor since 2008 (38th on the list) and 'adjointe aux finances' since 2012; and Jean-François Fountaine, a veteran 62-year old politician who has been municipal councillor and is vice-president of the local EPCI (CA La Rochelle). Fountaine, who was a member of the PRG before joining the PS, was regional councillor between 1992 and 2010, who had a very public spat with Ségo in 2008 (walking out of a session after she prevented him, who was then the VP finance in the executive, from speaking during a session of the CR). Fountaine strongly supported Falorni in 2012, which led to his falling out with Bono. Jaumouillié won the primary by 34 votes (out of about 3,650 votes), and Fountaine denounced irregularities and refused to stand out. He's running as a dissident, with the backing of the PRG (Falorni, albeit not a member, sits in the PRG group since the PS group blocked him from joining).

As this poll confirms, the race is very close and Fountaine, like Falorni in 2012, is winning UMP-UDI voters by the first round. However, because the threshold to qualify for the runoff is much lower in the municipal elections than in legislative elections (10% of votes cast vs. 12.5% of registered voters/'potential votes'), the runoff will be a three-way battle in which Fountaine, unlike Falorni, won't be able to count on mass support from right-wingers in the runoff against the official PS candidate - unless the UMP drops out of the runoff (unlikely), or, without dropping out, UMP voters abandon the UMP candidate in the second round to back Fountaine (more likely). I love internecine warfare.

[Zanas]

To add to all that, Arnaud Jaulin, who ran a centrist Modem-ish list, withdrew and is seeking ton enter on Fountaine's lists.

[Hash]

Another poll in Bastia, with Simeoni taking a clearer lead:

Jean Zuccarrelli (PRG-PCF)^ 34%
Gilles Simeoni (Inseme per Bastia) 32%
François Tatti/Emmanuelle de Gentili (DVG-EELV) 12%
Jean-Louis Milani (UMP-UDI) 8%
Eric Simoni (Corsica Libera) 6%
Tony Cardi (FN) 4%
Jean-François Baccarelli (AEI) 2%
Sylvain Fanti (DVD) 2%

Gilles Simeoni (Inseme per Bastia) 40%
Jean Zuccarrelli (PRG-PCF)^ 37%
François Tatti/Emmanuelle de Gentili (DVG-EELV) 13%
Jean-Louis Milani (UMP-UDI) 10%

Gilles Simeoni (Inseme per Bastia) 55%
Jean Zuccarrelli (PRG-PCF)^ 45%

Gilles Simeoni (Inseme per Bastia) 49%
Jean Zuccarrelli (PRG-PCF)^ 39%
Jean-Louis Milani (UMP-UDI) 12%

Also - Nancy (from Ipsos)
Mathieu Klein (PS-PCF-EELV-PRG) 38%
Laurent Hénart (UDI-UMP)^ 36%
Bora Yilmaz (PG) 11%
Pierre Ducarne (FN) 8%
Denis Gabet (DVD) 4%
Frank-Olivier Potier (ex-MoDem) 2%
Christiane Nimsgern (LO) 1%

Mathieu Klein (PS-PCF-EELV-PRG) 52%
Laurent Hénart (UDI-UMP)^ 48%

Mathieu Klein (PS-PCF-EELV-PRG) 49%
Laurent Hénart (UDI-UMP)^ 44%
Pierre Ducarne (FN) 7%

[Zanas]

The Nancy one strikes me as too much left-leaning to be real. I've lived and been politically active in Nancy and I know these people. 11% for a FG list without the majority of the PCF, with the present climate inside the PCF of Meurthe et Moselle, and with the head of list being a member of what's left of Gauche unitaire after they purged the rest of us (that is to say 50 members left nationally), this seems way too high. I wouldn't bet on anything higher than 7%.

And the triangulaire second round with the FN is a bit of a long shot in Nancy, the FN hasn't ever been successful there.

The two-way runoff is in the margin of error, and it could easily be the same in reverse. Don't expect radicalism to leave the Place Stanislas just yet...

[Zanas]

Montpellier :

PS 31
UMP 23
DVG 20
FN 15
FG 9
UDI dissident 2

Runoffs

PS/UMP 55/45.
PS/UMP/FN 52/34/14.
PS/DVG/UMP/FN 43/19/25/13

[Zanas]

IFOP on Tourcoing (3d biggest city of Lille urban area, ~100,000 inhabitants) :

1er Tour :
PS 43
UMP 32
FN 23
NPA 2

2nd Tour
PS 43
UMP 35
FN 22

[Hash]

Snoozer in Nice (CSA)

Estrosi (UMP-UDI)* 50%
Allemand (PS-EELV-PRG) 19%
Arnautu (FN) 12%
Bettati (DVD-MoDem) 6.5%
Injey (FG) 5%
Peyrat (DVD) 4.5%
Vardon (Nazis) 2%
Cotta (EXD) 0.5%
Beyl (AEI) 0.5%

[Zanas]

That would mean FG entering the council per se in Nice (there were already two PCF, but elected on PS's list), and Peyrat out. That would be hilarious !

[Hash]

Clermont-Ferrand (Ipsos)

Olivier Bianci (PS-PCF-EELV-PRG)^ 36%
Jean-Pierre Brenas (UMP) 20%
Alain Laffont (Gauche anticapitaliste-PG) 13%
Antoine Rechagneux (FN) 12%
Michel Fanget (MoDem-UDI) 10%
Mireille Lacombe (DVG-PRG diss) 4%
Frédéric Ranchon (DVD) 2%
Marie Savre (LO) 2%

Olivier Bianci (PS-PCF-EELV-PRG)^ 41%
Jean-Pierre Brenas (UMP) 22%
Alain Laffont (Gauche anticapitaliste-PG) 14%
Michel Fanget (MoDem-UDI) 12%
Antoine Rechagneux (FN) 11%

PS-PCF-EELV-PRG+Gauche anticapitaliste-PG 55%
UMP+MoDem-UDI 34%
FN 11%

Caen (Ipsos)

Philippe Duron (PS-PCF-PRG-MRC)* 28%
Joël Bruneau (UMP) 26%
Sonia de la Provôté (UDI-MoDem) 20%
Rudy L'Orphelin (EELV) 9%
Etienne Adam (PG-NPA-FASE) 9%
Philippe Chapron (FN) 6%
Pierre Casevitz (LO) 2%

Joël Bruneau (UMP-UDI-MoDem) 51%
Philippe Duron (PS-PCF-PRG-MRC)* 49%

Sonia de la Provôté (UDI-MoDem-UMP) 53%
Philippe Duron (PS-PCF-PRG-MRC)* 47%

[Zanas]

Ifop on Périgueux :

Michel Moyrand (PS-PC-EELV) 47
Antoine Audi (UMP-Modem-UDI) 30
Jean-Paul Daudou (DVD) 10
Alexandre Bodécot (FN) 8
Maurice Melliet (DVG ex PG) 3
John N’Tamé (SE) 2

Runoff
PS 53%
UMP 47%

Turnout 69%

[Hash]

Saint-Étienne (Ifop)

Gaël Perdriau (UMP-UDI-MoDem) 35%
Maurice Vincent (PS-PCF-PRG)* 32%
Gabriel de Peyrecave (FN) 18%
Olivier Longeon (EELV-MRC) 7%
Belkacem Merahi (PG) 5%
Hubert Patural (DVD) 1.5%
Romain Brossard (LO) 1%
Paul Sordet (Fed) 0.5%

Maurice Vincent (PS-PCF-PRG)* 44%
Gaël Perdriau (UMP-UDI-MoDem) 40%
Gabriel de Peyrecave (FN) 16%

[Hash]

More very interesting polls out today:

Montreuil (TNS-Sofres)
Jean-Pierre Brard (CAP, ex-PCF) 29%
Patrice Bessac (FG) 16%
Ibrahim Dufriche Soilihi (EELV)^ 15%
Razzy Hammadi (PS) 14%
Manon Laporte (UMP-UDI-MoDem) 12%
Mouna Viprey (DVG) 9%
Aline Cottereau (NPA) 4%
Aurélie Jochaud (LO) 1%

Marseille-3 (CSA)
Bruno Gilles (UMP-UDI)* 37%
Marie-Arlette Carlotti (PS-EELV) 31%
Jean-Pierre Baumann (FN) 15%
Isabelle Pasquet (FG) 12%
Michèle Rubirola-Blanc (Pape Diouf) 4.5%
Brigitte Piétri (PRG) 0.5%

Marie-Arlette Carlotti (PS-EELV) 44%
Bruno Gilles (UMP-UDI)* 43%
Jean-Pierre Baumann (FN) 13%

Amiens (Ifop)
Brigitte Fouré (UDI-UMP-MoDem-DLR) 42%
Thierry Bonté (PS-PCF-EELV)* 32%
Yves Dupille (FN) 16%
Cédric Maisse (PG) 8%
Mohamed Boulafrad (DVG) 2%

Brigitte Fouré (UDI-UMP-MoDem-DLR) 47%
Thierry Bonté (PS-PCF-EELV)* 40%
Yves Dupille (FN) 13%

[Hash]

Pretty golden moment from the UMP's criminal boss, who talks about 'very violent attacks' and takes a somber tone to discuss 'meditating on human nature' and 'generating hatred'. Keep on trolling, Jeff.

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/video/2014/03/06/cope-et-fillon-jouent-l-union-a-strasbourg_4378830_823448.html

[Hash]

Strasbourg is tightening up in a CSA poll:

Keller (UMP) 32%
Ries (PS-PRG)* 29%
Schaffhauser (FN) 11%
Jund (EELV) 9%
Loos (UDI) 7%
Val (FG) 6%
Saglamer (SE) 2%
Wolff (NPA) 1%
Morinaud (LO) 1%
Del Grande (POI) 1%
Tenesso (SE) 1%
Others under 1%

Ries (PS-PRG)* 47%
Keller (UMP) 42%
Schaffhauser (FN) 11%

Ries (PS-PRG)* 50%
Keller (UMP) 50%

[Hash]

Grenoble (Ipsos)
Jérôme Safar (PS-PCF-PRG)^ 34%
Eric Piolle (EELV-PG) 26%
Matthieu Chamussy (UMP-UDI) 22%
Mireille d'Ornano (FN) 9%
Philippe de Longevialle (DVC) 5%
Denis Bonzy (DVD) 2%
Catherine Brun (LO) 1%
Lahcen Benmaza (SE) 1%

Jérôme Safar (PS-PCF-PRG)^ 42%
Matthieu Chamussy (UMP-UDI) 33%
Eric Piolle (EELV-PG) 25%

Jérôme Safar (PS-PCF-PRG)^ 63%
Matthieu Chamussy (UMP-UDI) 37%

Eric Piolle (EELV-PG) 61%
Matthieu Chamussy (UMP-UDI) 39%

Angers (Ipsos)
Christophe Béchu (UMP-MoDem) 41%
Frédéric Béatse (PS-EELV-PCF-PRG)* 26%
Jean-Luc Routreau (DVG) 17%
Gaétan Dirand (FN) 6%
Marie-José Faligant (LO) 3%
Martin Nivault (NPA-PG) 2%
Laurent Gérault (UDI) 2%
Nathalie Sévaux (DVG) 2%
Hubert Lardeux (POI) 1%

Christophe Béchu (UMP-MoDem) 50%
Frédéric Béatse (PS-EELV-PCF-PRG)* 33%
Jean-Luc Routreau (DVG) 17%

Christophe Béchu (UMP-MoDem) 54%
Frédéric Béatse (PS-EELV-PCF-PRG)* 46%

Pau (Ipsos)
François Bayrou (MoDem-UMP-UDI) 37%
David Habib (PS-PRG-MRC)^ 28%
Yves Urieta (DVD) 12%
Georges de Pachtère (FN) 8%
Olivier Dartigolles (FG) 7%
Eurydice Bled (EELV) 6%
Mehdi Jabrane (SE) 2%

François Bayrou (MoDem-UMP-UDI) 42%
David Habib (PS-PRG-MRC)^ 39%
Yves Urieta (DVD) 14%
Georges de Pachtère (FN) 5%

François Bayrou (MoDem-UMP-UDI) 46%
David Habib (PS-PRG-MRC)^ 40%
Yves Urieta (DVD) 14%

François Bayrou (MoDem-UMP-UDI) 50%
David Habib (PS-PRG-MRC)^ 43%
Georges de Pachtère (FN) 7%

François Bayrou (MoDem-UMP-UDI) 55%
David Habib (PS-PRG-MRC)^ 45%

Marseille-3 (Ipsos)
Bruno Gilles (UMP-UDI)* 37%
Marie-Arlette Carlotti (PS-EELV) 31%
Jean-Pierre Baumann (FN) 17%
Isabelle Pasquet (FG) 11%
Michèle Rubirola-Blanc (Pape Diouf) 4%

Marie-Arlette Carlotti (PS-EELV) 42%
Bruno Gilles (UMP-UDI)* 42%
Jean-Pierre Baumann (FN) 16%

No full numbers yet, but an Ifop poll will be released showing the left ahead in Avignon.

[Zanas]

There you go :

Sondage Ifop à Avignon

PS-EELV : 29 %
FN : 27%
UMP : 23 %
FG : 16 %


2nd tour :
PS-EELV-FG : 45%
UMP : 30 %
FN : 25 %

[Colbert]

Bourg-en-Bresse (CSA)

PS-EELV-PCF 49%
UMP-UDI 33%
FN 11%
2 far-left lists : 7%

[Hash]

Marseille citywide (BVA)
UMP-UDI-MoDem 41%
PS-EELV 26%
FN 16%
FG 11%
Pape Diouf 5%
PRG 1%

UMP-UDI-MoDem 45%
PS-EELV 39%
FN 16%

Marseille-3 (BVA)
UMP-UDI-MoDem 36%
PS-EELV 29%
FN 15%
FG 14%
Pape Diouf 5%
PRG 1%

PS-EELV 44%
UMP-UDI-MoDem 42%
FN 14%

Metz (BVA)
UMP-UDI-MoDem 42%
PS-EELV* 37%
FN 11%
FG 5%
EXG 3%
LO 1%
DVD 1%

PS-EELV* 46%
UMP-UDI-MoDem 43%
FN 11%

UMP-UDI-MoDem 51%
PS-EELV* 49%

Nancy (BVA)
PS-PCF-EELV 41%
UDI-UMP-MoDem^ 40%
FN 8%
PG 6%
DVD 2%
DVC 2%
LO 1%

PS-PCF-EELV 51%
UDI-UMP-MoDem^ 49%

Belfort (BVA)
UMP 27%
PS-EELV-PRG* 23%
MoDem-UDI 19%
FN 9%
MRC 7%
DVG 6% (not running)
FG 6%
LO 3%

UMP 39%
PS-EELV-PRG* 38%
MoDem-UDI 23%

UMP 53%
PS-EELV-PRG* 47%

PS-EELV-PRG* 35%
UMP 33%
MoDem-UDI 24%
FN 8%

PS-EELV-PRG* 45%
UMP 43%
FN 12%

Cannes (CSA)
Lisnard (UMP)^ 40%
Tabarot (UMP) 30%
FN 16%
PS-EELV 9%
FG 3%
AEI 2% (not running)

Lisnard (UMP)^ 43%
Tabarot (UMP) 32%
FN 14%
PS-EELV 11%

Lisnard (UMP)^ 50%
Tabarot (UMP) 36%
FN 14%

Grasse (CSA)
UMP 38.5%
FG-PS-EELV 29%
FN 20%
DVD 11%
DVD 1.5%