French Municipal Elections 2014: Hashemite's Guide and Official Thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Could we FINALLY oust the Mafia from Corbeil-Essonnes?

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Orléans (Ipsos)
UMP-UDI* 46%
PS-EELV 31%
FG 10%
FN 8%
SE 3%
LO 2%

UMP-UDI* 52%
PS-EELV 40%
FN 8%

UMP-UDI* 58%
PS-EELV 42%

Montreuil (Ipsos)
Brard (DVG) 27%
FG 22%
UMP 14%
EELV^ 12%
PS 11%
Viprey (DVG) 10%
NPA 2%
LO 2%

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Nantes (TNS-Sofres)
PS-PCF-UDB^ 37%
UMP 26%
EELV 13%
FN 8%
PG-NPA 6%
MoDem 4%
DVD 3%
LO 2%
DVD 1%

PS-PCF-UDB^ 59%
UMP 41%

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Auxerre (Ipsos)
PS-EELV* 45%
UMP-UDI 35%
FN 10%
FG 9%
LO 1%

PS-EELV* 51%
UMP-UDI 40%
FN 9%

PS-EELV* 53%
UMP-UDI 47%

Tours (Ipsos)
PS-PCF-PRG-MoDem* 38%
UMP-UDI 35%
EELV 11%
FN 9%
NPA-PG 5%
LO 1%
POI 1%

PS-PCF-PRG-MoDem* 54%
UMP-UDI 46%

Béziers (CSA)
Ménard (FN etc) 37%
UMP-UDI-MoDem^ 35%
PS-EELV-PRG 22%
FG 6%

UMP-UDI-MoDem^ 38%
Ménard (FN etc) 35%
PS-EELV-PRG 27%

Paris (Ifop)
PS-PCF-PRG^ 38% (-1.5%)
UMP-UDI-MoDem 35.5% (-1%)
FN 7.5% (-0.5%)
EELV 6.5% (+1%)
PG 5% (-1%)
DVD 5% (+1%)
DVG 1% (+1%)
LO 0.5% (+0.5%)
NPA 0.5% (+0.5%)
Others 0.5% (nc)

PS-PCF-PRG^ 53% (-1%)
UMP-UDI-MoDem 47% (+1%)

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Finally a journalist takes up an old complaint of mine: the inanity and randomness of the 'nuances politiques' used by the MOI gnomes. As it turns out, they've been arbitrarily assigning these useless labels to lists who hadn't declared as such.

http://www.lemonde.fr/municipales/article/2014/03/12/dans-les-petites-communes-l-obligation-de-declarer-une-nuance-politique-passe-mal_4381528_1828682.html

[Antonio the Sixth]

Finally a journalist takes up an old complaint of mine: the inanity and randomness of the 'nuances politiques' used by the MOI gnomes. As it turns out, they've been arbitrarily assigning these useless labels to lists who hadn't declared as such.

http://www.lemonde.fr/municipales/article/2014/03/12/dans-les-petites-communes-l-obligation-de-declarer-une-nuance-politique-passe-mal_4381528_1828682.html

Ugh yeah, the french Interior Ministry is godawful at naming lists/candidates. And this new system for cities between 1000 and 3500 was a pretty bad idea.

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Most relevant/important recent polls:

Carpentras (BVA)
PS-EELV-PCF-PRG* 40% / 49% / 49%
FN 25% / 28% / 29%
UMP 17% / 23% / - %
UDI 16% / -% / 22%
DVG 2%

Dieppe (Ipsos)
FG-EELV* 44% / 45% / 47% / 59%
UMP-UDI 28% / 29% / 34% /  41%
DVG 18% / 19% / 19%
FN 9% / 7%
LO 1%

Bourges
PS 29%
UMP-UDI diss 20%
FG 19%
UDI^ 17%
DVD 9%
EELV 4%
LO 2%

PS 52%
UDI-UMP 48%

PS 52%
UMP-UDI 48%

PS-FG-EELV 51%
UDI-UMP 49%

PS-FG-EELV 51%
UMP-UDI 49%

Cannes (Ipsos)
Lisnard (UMP) 42%/ 44% / 51% / 49% / 54%
Tabarot (UMP) 35% / 38% / 40% / 40% / 46%
FN 12% / 8% / 9% / -%
PS-EELV 7% / 10% / 11%
FG 4%

Chartres (Ipsos)
UMP-UDI* 49% / 51% / 55%
PS-EELV-MoDem 35% / 43% / 45%
FN 7% / 6%
FG 7%
LO 2%

Béziers (Ifop)
Ménard (FN etc) 38% (+3) / 36% (+4)
UMP-UDI-MoDem^ 34% (-2) / 37% (-4)
PS-EELV-PRG 21% (+3) / 27% (nc)
FG 7% (-3)

Chambéry (BVA)
UMP-UDI 45% / 49%
PS-EELV-PRG* 44% / 51%
NPA-PG-Alternatifs-Ensemble 8%
PCF 3%

Saint-Denis, 93 (PollingVox)
FG-MRC-EELV* 44% / 46% / 53%
PS 34% / 38% / 47%
UMP 10% / 16%
NPA 5%
DVG 5%
LO 2%

[Hash]

My post got eaten up but here's today's summary of polls, I can dig them up if anybody's interested:

Marseille-3: PS +1% in the runoff, FN strong at 19% in R1
Aix-en-Provence: divided field in first round, but the horrendous UMP incumbent leads all runoff scenarios by varying margins; although only 51-49 in the case of an alliance between the PS and de Peretti (centrist, ex-MoDem) in the runoff.
Pau: Bayrou has a wide lead in the first round (40-26), leads by 8 in a 3-way runoff (47-39), by 12 in a duel runoff.
Besançon: PS incumbent in the lead
Montpellier: Official PS list ahead in first round (28-UMP 24-DVG 21). The official PS list leads a five-way or four-way runoff (5 way leads by 5, 4 way leads by 12)

[Zanas]

We're going to have to make a few predictions soon. We should agree on what we predict to have something comparable and fun. We could take the +100 000 hab, or the +100 000 plus the préfectures, something like that. Or we could reduce that to a number of potential swing cities.

For now, the most probable swing to the left are Avignon (pretty sure), Bourges (confident) and Nancy (more dubious). Swings to the right are much more, I don't have the time now.

[RogueBeaver]

US take on the Paris municipals.

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A very rushed and basic take on all of this:

http://welections.wordpress.com/2014/03/23/election-preview-france-municipal-elections-2014-part-ii/

For those interested, I'll be hosting a municipales party on mibbit tomorrow when results come out (starting a bit beforehand), on #municipales2014. Everybody's welcome.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When's that?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Just voted! Though it will hardly be enough for the PS candidate (a Sciences Po alumnus and sorta-acquaintance, who would probably make a great mayor) to stand a chance.

[Antonio the Sixth]

When's that?

As usual, results will be known after 8PM, local time.

[Hash]

Join in for the fun at #municipales

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Things are not going well.

[Hifly]

Where are you guys viewing results?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Where are you guys viewing results?

http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/MN2014/

[Zanas]

Join in for the fun at #municipales

where exactly ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

http://client00.chat.mibbit.com/?server=irc.Mibbit.Net&channel=%23municipales

[Foucaulf]

For those of you who missed the start:

• Results in one sentence: far-right triumphs at the ruling socialists' expense.
• FN takes one commune outright: Hénin-Beaumont (around where Marine Le Pen also demolished Jean-Luc Melenchon two years ago). Leading in Avignon, Béziers and Perpignan, among others.
• UMP leads and can gain from the Socialists in several middle-sized communes, like Strasbourg, Quimper, Amiens and Reims. The results are a net positive for them, since they will suffer few losses even with the greater support for the FN.
• Paris looks like it will stay with the Socialists after NKM is out of the running in the 14e arrondissement. Other cities like Lyon and Lille have socialists leads, albeit reduced. There is total disaster in Marseille, where the right will win and the FN has a 2 percentage point lead over the Socialists.

For those with some level of French ability, I think this song describes the night accurately.

Others can contribute as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Scanning through the results is a pretty depressing experience.

[MaxQue]

One of the biggest surprises of the right is Grenoble.

The Socialists (party leading the city) finished behind a Green-PG list. UMP is 3rd (the damages of the Carignon-era (corrupt right-wing mayor) are continuing). FN can go to 2nd second round too.

[swl]

Scanning through the results is a pretty depressing experience.

Not surprising though. The European elections will be fun to watch.

There is room for a new party in France like the M5S in Italy or To Potami in Greece, I wonder if someone will give it a try before 2017...

[RodPresident]

Scanning through the results is a pretty depressing experience.

Not surprising though. The European elections will be fun to watch.

There is room for a new party in France like the M5S in Italy or To Potami in Greece, I wonder if someone will give it a try before 2017...
France have room to a populist non-faruright party. Now we need to know who will lead. Centristes can comeback too.