French Municipal Elections 2014: Hashemite's Guide and Official Thread

[Zanas]

We are all ears. I will be able to give you info on a few races, namely Metz, Nancy, Clamart, maybe Paris Ve and XXe.

[Zanas]

That's great work, but that could trigger massive aspirin consumption in our fellow forum members...

To my knowledge, the EPCI with the largest number of communes is the communauté de communes du Saulnois, in Moselle, which consists of 128 communes, and that's only one whole arrondissement of Moselle ! And these only account for 30,000 inhabitants ! As a comparison, the whole département of the Bouches-du-Rhône, whose capital is Marseilles, has 119 communes...

Generally speaking, North-Eastern France has way more communes by département than the rest of the country. I would guess this is due to much less secularization in this part of the country before the Revolution, and therefore more individual parishes being turned into independent communes in 1789, but maybe I'm wrong, Hash ?

See this map :



Anyway, especially in the North-East, the number of communes is a real problem, noticeably in matters of public accounting and fiscality. Each mayor of each commune has the obligation to establish a balance sheet following the intricate and indigest rules of public accounting, and, to be honest, in communes of 20, 100, or even 500 inhabitants, neither the mayor nor the few municipal employees know how to do that. They appeal to public treasuries, State's local services for public finance, which are overwhelmed with demands and often have to do all these sheets on their own. Needless to say the State is cutting jobs in this public service as well as all the others...

So that's one of the reasons why things should be (and currently are) pushed towards greater integration in intercommunalités, at least on these accounting and fiscal matters.

Also, you mention a Metz-Thionville communauté urbaine I haven't even heard of, and I've been living in Metz two years and a half until last month. Where did you hear about that ? Not saying you dreamt it, just that it's news to me.

[Zanas]

¹ Jesus Christ, isn't all this fluffy bullsh**t horrible? What the flying hell is 'sustainable mobility'?!

It's basically the ability to think and organize the modes of transportation in a way that will not heighten Earth's global temperature by 5 degrees in 2100...

But I agree that most of this sh**t is fluffy bullsh**t.

[Zanas]

Are you going to throw a regular bone to chew at us ? I'm missing talking French elections, we have so many smaller countries we discuss here on and on !

[Zanas]

Resurrecting this thread because things are on the move on this election and we have regular polls for large cities. One today for Clermont-Ferrand.

It was ordered by one of UMP's candidates, to test his prospects, so they're polling two UMP options, and and they only test a largely improbable four-tier runoff race. Still, results are interesting, and for once, encouraging for people like me :

FG 18-20 %
PS 27 %
EELV 4-5 %
Modem 14-15 %
UMP-UDI 22-24 %
FN 12 %

Second tour :

FG 21 %
PS-EELV 32 %
UMP-UDI-Modem 33 %
FN 14 %

To compare, Hollande polled 38 %, Joly 2,7 % and Mélenchon 14,5 % in the présidentielles first round in 2012. Thus, we've got something like a 2 point transfer towards the Greens, 4 or 5 towards the Left Front, and probably one or two towards Modem who had polled 9 %.

If that tendency can repeat itself in other places where the FG was already relatively high and can therefore be felt as a credible left-wing alternative to the government, we could have ourselves some interesting results.

[Zanas]

This poll is bullsh**t. It was an internet poll, and it didn't poll according to the interregional constituencies, and we have no heads of lists for the EP elections for any party as of yet. So it was basically an applaudimeter contest, not a useful poll. Still, FN is bound to perform better in the EP election than in the municipal ones, because they won't have candidates everywhere in the latter, and they don't benefit from incumbent effect anywhere, whereas they will indeed run in all seven mainland constituencies in the EP election, they have incumbents, and the vote has a more national touch. Basically, people absolutely don't care who they send to Strasbourg, they won't see them for the 5 following years, so it's easier to elect fascists in that prospect than to be the mayor of their city that they will see all year at ceremonies etc.

[Zanas]

One new poll today, in a quite critical place for this election : Paris 14th arrondissement, the one where Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet is running. It's done by PollingVox, and the Observatoire du changement politique (Observatory of political change), two structures I have never heard about, so to take with quite a bit of caution. Anyway, the results don't seem too far off, except for the PG list's result in the first round, which is way too high in my opinion. So here goes :

PCF-less FG (basically PG with a few groupuscules) 11
PS-PCF 30
EELV 7
Modem-UDI (Marielle de Sarnez, not a nobody) 13
UMP (NKM) 30
DVD (the UMP 2008 candidate here) 2
FN 7

On the right, these results seem plausible. On the left though, the result of the FG list is due to the wording of the poll : "a list supported by the Parti de gauche and Jean-Luc Mélenchon". This gives name recognition, but in March a nobody will be running and the PCF will do everything in their power to try to show that they are the FG and they are running with the PS. So expect only 4 to 8 % for this PCF-less FG list. The delta will fall into PS and EELV. I would very much like to believe the 11 % score, as I am involved in this campaign's direction, but I don't buy it.

2nd round

Triangulaire option :

PS (they don't even mention PCF there) 48
UMP 36
Modem-UDI 16

Runoff option :

PS 55
UMP 45

So basically it's still pretty safe for the left. In 2008, it had been PS 57, Modem 15, UMP 28. So there are gains on the right, but not anywhere close enough.

Keep in mind that Paris municipales work a bit like the Potus EC. The list which wins an arrondissement gets half of its conseillers de Paris, and then the other half is distributed proportionally among all lists, including the top one. So with 51-49 you get 3/4 of an arrondissement's conseillers.

And the 14th arrondissement is kind of Paris' Ohio or Florida : if the right keeps all their bases from 2008, they only need to win this one to win Paris, and it's the closest they can target (they also say they target the 12th, but they lost 66-34 last time so...).

So for now, Paris is a pretty safe PS hold.

edit : Oh and another interesting thing in this poll, and hilarious. They asked if people favored or opposed the development of social housing in the 14th arrondissement :

Left-wing leaning : 94 for - 5 against
Right-wing leaning : 64 for - 35 against (!!!!!!!)
Total : 84 - 15

[Zanas]

We're getting a few polls now and then for these.

Today : Bordeaux. Juppé reelected in a landslide, of course. 90% of positive opinions !

UMP-UDI-Modem (Juppé) 57%
PS-EELV 30%
FN 7%
FG 4.5%
NPA 1.5%

Yesterday we had a Marseilles poll, but it was city wide so it's pretty much useless since the election is by sector as in Paris and Lyon. Still, here are the results :

1st round

Extreme-left (LO or NPA) (typical of the lazy pollster that doesn't even try to look what's going on locally) 3%
FG 8%
PS 25%
EELV 7%
Modem 5%
UMP-UDI 31%
FN 21%

2nd round

Left 41%
UMP-UDI 40%
FN 19%

Everyone is spinning this as "Mennucci in the lead", but to my knowledge no newspaper has been able to read the right piece of news in that poll : FN is within the margin of error of PS in the first round. With low turnout (which is almost certain), this could easily end up a UMP-FN runoff. I'm even surprised the PS hasn't been using the "vote utile" bullsh**t with this result. I guess they need to install the possibility of MEnnucci winning in the end first, then they will shove the "vote utile" down every left-wing voter's throat throughout the campaign.

Another one, recently : Pau. That's where Bayrou tries again, for the third time. He failed memorably last time in 2008, but this time with the alliance with UDI and possible benevolence of the UMP, he could pull it through.

1st round

Modem-UDI (Bayrou) 29%
PS 27%
Urieta (former PS mayor, mason, that ran with UMP in 2008 against an official PS who won) 16%
UMP 9%
FN 8%
FG 8%
EELV 3%

2nd round

Bayrou (with UMP support) 42%
Left 41%
Urieta 17%

They only tested this runoff option. Beware of the sample (505 people), which means quite a margin of error.

[Zanas]

Yeah, let's just ignore this bit you quoted, I was just being... asleep. I was however unaware that there was no "inscrits" threshold to get to the runoff. That could get us quite a number of triangulaires this time.

By the way, as you said, and as I said, polls by sectors are much more useful than city-wide polls for Paris, Lyon and Marseille. So here's one for Marseille's 3rd sector. It's a bit like Paris 14th arrondissement, it's the Florida or Ohio of Marseille.

In 2008, Guérini (yeah...) had lost it by less than 1000 votes to Muselier (51.4-48.6), but it voted 53-47 for Hollande last year. It has 11 Marseille councillors, and the ones in the other sectors are pretty much safe. So it's the swing sector to watch. And we have a poll :

1st round

FG 11%
EELV 5%
PS (maybe Carlotti, but she has to reconcile with Mennucci and beg him for things for her and her friends first) 31%
UMP-UDI-Modem (Bruno Gilles, incumbent sector mayor) 34%
FN 19%

2nd round

Left (FG could ask for the world in the fusion talks in that configuration) 47%
UMP 35%
FN 18%

Beware it's a PollingVox poll, pollster that doesn't even yet have a website... It's the new Jérôme Fourquet thing.

But still, except if UMP ended up merging with FN, which Gaudin always always said he wouldn't, that would mean Marseille going to the left, and that would change the whole coverage of the election. If the PS keeps Paris and Lyon (pretty safe) and conquers Marseille, even if they lose a dozen other average or large cities (pretty sure also), it will not be quite a big loss, and the media will spin it that way.

[Zanas]

We're now getting more and more polls, even in small towns. One I care about is Calais, because my mother's family comes from there and I went there all my youth, despite its ugliness.

Calais is the typical example of a PCF at the end of its tether, that got ousted in 2008 by the UMP allied to, wait for it, the MRC... Basically everyone wanted the victory of the UMP candidate, Natacha Bouchart, in 2008, because it would renew the political class in the city. Jacky Hénin, the former mayor, recycled himself as an MEP, as horrible as he was as mayor.

Now, he is running again... (facepalm x100) Plus Bouchart hasn't lived up to expectations and hasn't done anything really good. So the MRC has ordered a poll to CSA to know if they should ally with her again or go with another list (PS-EELV for instance). Yes, and they even say it openly.

Of course, a long-time dated and exhausted PCF and a useless UMP replacing it favors... you got it, the FN, who really didn't need the help in this department (Pas-de-Calais, 62, is also home to Hénin-Beaumont...)

So these are the figures for the first round :

UMP 31%
FN 23% (basically an unknown candidate...)
FG 21% (with Hénin )
PS-EELV 18% (a PS deputy, not sure if they would merge with the FG list...)
MRC 7%

Beware, two probable lists weren't tested : one radical left (got 4.8% last time), and one DVD with the 2008 FN candidate on it it seems.

They didn't test a runoff, and it can be all over the place. Plus the MRC will now send their little 7% to the better offerer. I guess Bouchart is well placed to be confirmed for now, except in the improbable case of a FG-PS merger with a dynamic and enthusiasm from both sides (I said improbable...)

Yes, Calais is in politics and elections as ugly as it is in flesh...

[Zanas]

Ugh... Paris seems awfully close.

Still little chance of a UMP victory, especially if the 14ème is still that far out of reach for the UMP.

I also figure it won't help that the Parisian UMP, which has been increasingly divided since the dissident clusterfarks in the 2011 senatorials, still thinks airing its dirty laundry is fetch. Charles Beigbeder, a copéiste businessman and brother of the crazy writer Frédéric Beigbeder, is running a dissident list in the 8ème (a right-wing stronghold) which he says is to be equidistant between the FN and the UMP and he wants to 'federate' the various dissident lists springing up everywhere (notably Dominique Tiberi, the son of criminal Jean Tiberi in the 5ème).

On Saturday, NKM hit hard in an interview in Le Parisien, talking about the party (UMP, UDI) HQs complicating her plans by intervening; striking back at Beigbeder quite harshly (Le problème, avec Charles Beigbeider, c’est qu’il m’aime trop ou pas assez. Il a fait devant moi, et pendant des semaines, une danse du ventre endiablée pour être sur mes listes. Quand cela s’est avéré impossible, il m’a agonie d’injures.) and striking down Rachida Dati who had been criticizing her (je crois aussi qu’elle devrait se consacrer à son arrondissement, dans lequel elle mène une bataille difficile). Dati is in fact facing two (largely filloniste) dissidents in the 7ème - former mayor Michel Dumont and former 'premier adjoint' Christian Le Roux. Dumont rightly points out that Dati is completely useless and has no record (Le Petit journal's old episodes about the Conseil de Paris sessions would confirm that she does nothing except laugh, play Tetris, text on her phone, annoy her colleagues or leave early/arrive late).

But now Dati is pissed (C'est trop facile de m'insulter. Nathalie devrait faire attention), Borloo is fuming about the UDI not getting what it bargained for on the UMP-UDI-MoDem lists (and threatening to scuttle even the EP election deals) and the bitchfest is running wild. Le Monde details it with some private details they got their hands on; apparently Borloo considers NKM a liar, NKM is apparently pissed off at him and others and so forth. And the Guiding Star of the 21st Century himself, Poison Dwarf, is not pleased.

The French right is still in line for the title of "la droite la plus bête du monde"... At least the Parisian one clearly is.

Don't worry Antonio, a 52,5-47,5 poll for Paris as a whole doesn't have a meaning whatsoever. You have to look the arrondissement. As long as the 12th and 14th hold, Paris easily holds. And there are no signs otherwise for the moment.

[Zanas]

Hash, when mentioning Paris polls, I would like it very much if you could label our lists PG-Ensemble... It's not a big deal, but I'd be glad.

Oh and I'm actually involved in our 7th arrondissement campaign team, of course we're not campainging at all, but 2% would actually be a great result for us there !

By the way, would you happen to have a way of predicting the results in Marseille's sectors from a Marseille wide poll result ? Like a table or rapartition keys ? I've done that for Paris for our lists, but I don't really know Marseille politics at all.

What I'm wondering is basically if the latest poll with Gaudin a bit on top would still result in a PS victory in the decisive 3d sector or not ?

[Zanas]

Well, for now, what I just did is simply apply a "règle de trois" (don't how it's called english frankly) to the results of this new Marseille poll, considering a uniform swing from last poll. The last poll for sector 3 was nearly at the same time as a Marseille poll, so I applied this.

Basically, the results in the third sector would look like this :
UMP 39%
PS-EELV 34%
FN 15%
FG 11-12%

Then in the second round :
UMP 37%
PS-EELV 47%
FN 16%

UMP's two lost points in the runoff seem a bit off, because UMP has gained much more in its first round score  than in its runoff score Marseille wide. But even if you assume that UMP keeps its base, gains one or two more points from FN and abstention, you could still only look at something like :
UMP 41%
PS-EELV 45%
FN 14%

which is still pretty good for PS. So while we wait for either a new sector 3 poll or for myself to make a table for everything (quite unlikely for Marseille), I would still call Marseille a PS pickup.

[Zanas]

Also, Marseille sector 3 :

UMP-UDI 38%
PS-EELV (Carlotti) 32 %
FN 14 %
FG 11%
Pape Diouf (sort of associative DVG) 5%

Runoff

PS-EELV 44%
UMP 43%
FN 13%

Which is pretty much what I had calculated above, but even closer.

This one is gonna be a nail-biter.

[Zanas]

Ugh, it would be horrible to see Bayrou win thanks to right-wing votes...

Why would it be ? He is and has always been a right-wing politician.

[Zanas]

I might as well help Hash a bit : here's Saint-Etienne.


    1er tour

    Gaël Perdriau (UMP-UDI-MoDem) : 35%
    Maurice Vincent (PS-PCF-PRG) : 34%
    Gabriel de Peyrecave (FN) : 16%
    Olivier Longeon (EELV-MRC) : 7%
    Belkacem Merahi (PG) : 4%
    Romain Brossard (Lutte ouvrière) : 2%
    Hubert Patural (Droite sociétale) : 2%


    2e tour

    Maurice Vincent (PS-PCF-PRG-EELV) : 45%
    Gaël Perdriau (UMP-UDI-MoDem) : 41%
    Gabriel de Peyrecave (FN) : 14%

We may be in the margin of error, but the left has more reserves than the right and should keep the mayor.

[Zanas]

And another one for Paris 5e :

Sondage Ifop/Fiducial pour le Vème arrondissement :

1er tour :

Marie-Christine Lemardeley (PS): 37 %
Florence Berthout (UMP-UDI) : 30 %
Dominique Tiberi : 17 %
EELV : 7 %
FN : 4 %
PG : 3 %
Paris Libéré : 2


2nd tour :

Duel :
Marie-Christine Lemardeley (PS): 52 %
Florence Berthout (UMP-UDI) : 48 %

Triangulaire :
Marie-Christine Lemardeley (PS): 46 %
Florence Berthout (UMP-UDI) : 34%
Dominique Tiberi : 20 %

If Tiberi runs in the second round, the arrondissement finally falls into the PS' hands. If the two right-wing lists merge, anything is possible, from bad transfers to last minute recovers as we've seen last time.

Anyway, should be interesting. Poor score for the PG, should be at around 4-5 considering what they get in other arrondissement.

[Zanas]

To add to all that, Arnaud Jaulin, who ran a centrist Modem-ish list, withdrew and is seeking ton enter on Fountaine's lists.

[Zanas]

The Nancy one strikes me as too much left-leaning to be real. I've lived and been politically active in Nancy and I know these people. 11% for a FG list without the majority of the PCF, with the present climate inside the PCF of Meurthe et Moselle, and with the head of list being a member of what's left of Gauche unitaire after they purged the rest of us (that is to say 50 members left nationally), this seems way too high. I wouldn't bet on anything higher than 7%.

And the triangulaire second round with the FN is a bit of a long shot in Nancy, the FN hasn't ever been successful there.

The two-way runoff is in the margin of error, and it could easily be the same in reverse. Don't expect radicalism to leave the Place Stanislas just yet...

[Zanas]

Montpellier :

PS 31
UMP 23
DVG 20
FN 15
FG 9
UDI dissident 2

Runoffs

PS/UMP 55/45.
PS/UMP/FN 52/34/14.
PS/DVG/UMP/FN 43/19/25/13

[Zanas]

IFOP on Tourcoing (3d biggest city of Lille urban area, ~100,000 inhabitants) :

1er Tour :
PS 43
UMP 32
FN 23
NPA 2

2nd Tour
PS 43
UMP 35
FN 22

[Zanas]

That would mean FG entering the council per se in Nice (there were already two PCF, but elected on PS's list), and Peyrat out. That would be hilarious !

[Zanas]

Ifop on Périgueux :

Michel Moyrand (PS-PC-EELV) 47
Antoine Audi (UMP-Modem-UDI) 30
Jean-Paul Daudou (DVD) 10
Alexandre Bodécot (FN) 8
Maurice Melliet (DVG ex PG) 3
John N’Tamé (SE) 2

Runoff
PS 53%
UMP 47%

Turnout 69%

[Zanas]

There you go :

Sondage Ifop à Avignon

PS-EELV : 29 %
FN : 27%
UMP : 23 %
FG : 16 %


2nd tour :
PS-EELV-FG : 45%
UMP : 30 %
FN : 25 %

[Zanas]

We're going to have to make a few predictions soon. We should agree on what we predict to have something comparable and fun. We could take the +100 000 hab, or the +100 000 plus the préfectures, something like that. Or we could reduce that to a number of potential swing cities.

For now, the most probable swing to the left are Avignon (pretty sure), Bourges (confident) and Nancy (more dubious). Swings to the right are much more, I don't have the time now.