March 2013 Jobs Report

[Joe Biden 2020]

We are still a week away from the release of the March Jobs Report, the final report for 2013 Q1.  What does everyone expect the numbers to do and show next Friday?

[DINGO Joe]

The consensus number is 175,000.  I have no special knowledge that would lead me to veer from the consensus.

[Torie]

Anecdotally, in Socal things are really beginning to heat up in the last month. Stuff is being snapped up for rent, that has been languishing for a very long time. And there is a new buying frenzy in housing - and construction companies are beginning to hire like mad.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Anecdotally, in Socal things are really beginning to heat up in the last month. Stuff is being snapped up for rent, that has been languishing for a very long time. And there is a new buying frenzy in housing - and construction companies are beginning to hire like mad.

The same has been happening in MN for a couple months now.  We've gained more jobs in the past 6 months than any 6 month period since 1984, income was up 5% in 2012 (4th in the nation), and it is widely believed that home sales were down in February because supply is so low that people can't find suitable housing... and.. you wanna rent?  In Minneapolis?  Fuggetaboutit.

[Beet]

NoVa is getting hit hard by sequestration. One of my friends is moving to the Eastern Shore. It's worse here than in 2009.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

you wanna rent?  In Minneapolis?  Fuggetaboutit.

[Ban my account ffs!]

you wanna rent?  In Minneapolis?  Fuggetaboutit.

Apartment vacancies in Minneapolis are below 2%.  You can technically rent, but you won't get what you want.

Of course that will change with 11,000 new apartments under construction or soon the break ground in the city.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That might be low, but that still works out to A LOT of apartments overall, still no shortage of "FOR RENT" signs that I see every day.

And of course the pleasant fact that my rent hasn't gone up in five years.

[Tender Branson]

+202.000 jobs (225.000 private, minus 23.000 government)

Rate = 7.6% (-0.1)

[opebo]

Anecdotally, in Socal things are really beginning to heat up in the last month. Stuff is being snapped up for rent, that has been languishing for a very long time. And there is a new buying frenzy in housing - and construction companies are beginning to hire like mad.

The same has been happening in MN for a couple months now.  We've gained more jobs in the past 6 months than any 6 month period since 1984, income was up 5% in 2012 (4th in the nation), and it is widely believed that home sales were down in February because supply is so low that people can't find suitable housing... and.. you wanna rent?  In Minneapolis?  Fuggetaboutit.

NoVa is getting hit hard by sequestration. One of my friends is moving to the Eastern Shore. It's worse here than in 2009.

All of these anecdotes encourage me - after all the only bad spot is NoVA, which is only falling a little from a high level (one of the best local economies in the country for several years).

I look for a solid boom.. though I fear places like Missouri could be largely left out.

[LastVoter]

Anecdotally, in Socal things are really beginning to heat up in the last month. Stuff is being snapped up for rent, that has been languishing for a very long time. And there is a new buying frenzy in housing - and construction companies are beginning to hire like mad.

The same has been happening in MN for a couple months now.  We've gained more jobs in the past 6 months than any 6 month period since 1984, income was up 5% in 2012 (4th in the nation), and it is widely believed that home sales were down in February because supply is so low that people can't find suitable housing... and.. you wanna rent?  In Minneapolis?  Fuggetaboutit.

NoVa is getting hit hard by sequestration. One of my friends is moving to the Eastern Shore. It's worse here than in 2009.

All of these anecdotes encourage me - after all the only bad spot is NoVA, which is only falling a little from a high level (one of the best local economies in the country for several years).

I look for a solid boom.. though I fear places like Missouri could be largely left out.

Capitalism picks winners and losers.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Anecdotally, in Socal things are really beginning to heat up in the last month. Stuff is being snapped up for rent, that has been languishing for a very long time. And there is a new buying frenzy in housing - and construction companies are beginning to hire like mad.

The same has been happening in MN for a couple months now.  We've gained more jobs in the past 6 months than any 6 month period since 1984, income was up 5% in 2012 (4th in the nation), and it is widely believed that home sales were down in February because supply is so low that people can't find suitable housing... and.. you wanna rent?  In Minneapolis?  Fuggetaboutit.

NoVa is getting hit hard by sequestration. One of my friends is moving to the Eastern Shore. It's worse here than in 2009.

All of these anecdotes encourage me - after all the only bad spot is NoVA, which is only falling a little from a high level (one of the best local economies in the country for several years).

I look for a solid boom.. though I fear places like Missouri could be largely left out.

Capitalism picks winners and losers.

I think it says something that I knew you were going to say something along those lines.

[Maxwell]

+202.000 jobs (225.000 private, minus 23.000 government)

Rate = 7.6% (-0.1)

Huh, I thought the sequester was supposed to destroy the economy completely .

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

+202.000 jobs (225.000 private, minus 23.000 government)

Rate = 7.6% (-0.1)

Huh, I thought the sequester was supposed to destroy the economy completely .

Government jobs went down 23,000.

[Maxwell]

+202.000 jobs (225.000 private, minus 23.000 government)

Rate = 7.6% (-0.1)

Huh, I thought the sequester was supposed to destroy the economy completely .

Government jobs went down 23,000.

But the private sector moved up 225,000, which is certainly progress. Sure, an extra 20,000 jobs are fine, but the private sector is certainly compensating just fine.

[Joe Biden 2020]

+202.000 jobs (225.000 private, minus 23.000 government)

Rate = 7.6% (-0.1)

Huh, I thought the sequester was supposed to destroy the economy completely .

Government jobs went down 23,000.

But the private sector moved up 225,000, which is certainly progress. Sure, an extra 20,000 jobs are fine, but the private sector is certainly compensating just fine.

You have to remember though that what Tender posted are just projections.  The official numbers don't come out until this Friday, April 5.

[Benj]

+202.000 jobs (225.000 private, minus 23.000 government)

Rate = 7.6% (-0.1)

Huh, I thought the sequester was supposed to destroy the economy completely .

That's Tender's prediction. The actual numbers won't be out until Friday, I think.

[opebo]

I look for a solid boom.. though I fear places like Missouri could be largely left out.

Capitalism picks winners and losers.

And even the 'winners' are only persons being used. 

[Torie]

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In my case, by the man opebo himself.

[opebo]

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In my case, by the man opebo himself.

??

[Ban my account ffs!]

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In my case, by the man opebo himself.

??

I think he just hit on you. 

[King]

ADP reported +158,000; and they usually lowball because as a private they have to sell to their mostly conservative subscribers. 

I expect around +200k.  It would have been a lot more if sequester garbage hadn't blipped economic confidence for awhile.

Each month should go up from here IMO.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

88K? Seriously?

[Benj]

88K? Seriously?

Month-to-month the numbers are really, really random. Note that January and February were simultaneously revised significantly upward. The big decline seems to have been in retail, which had a huge drop-off of -24,000, concentrated in clothing, who knows why.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

And Austerity begins to take its toll.