Number of female senators after 2016 elections?

[hurricanehink]

There are currently a record 20 female senators, including five who were sworn in this January. While 2014 is a bit away, the field seems to be settling a bit (with regards to open seats and who is running). How high do you think the number could reach after 2014?

Based on what I've seen, it seems that there are no retiring female senators for the next election, now that Susan Collins (R. Maine) intends to run again. West Virginia appears somewhat likely to go from male to female, given Shelley Moore Capito's early popularity (which would be a double-flip, both party and gender). Of the open seats, which other ones could flip from a male to female?

By the way, I'm new to the board, so apologies if this is at the wrong location.

(Modified to change year post-2014 elections)

[Brittain33]

There is a small but reasonable possibility in SD on either side.

An opportunity in KY which would be a shocking event if it came to pass.

Possibility of -1 in LA or NC where the Republican candidates are men.

[free my dawg]

You've got the right place, don't worry. Stay a while.

4 of the 20 women in the Senate are up for re-election as of now. 2 of them are in danger (LA, NC), 1 of them is likely to win (NH), and 1 is safe (Collins). SMC's Senate victory is extremely likely, so add one more to that list. If Enzi retires then it's likely that Liz Cheney or Cynthia Lummis takes that seat. Even less likely is KY now that they have a respectable candidate. And, of course, there's the chance that Herseth wins that race.

So you're looking around the range of 17-24 female senators next cycle.

[JerryArkansas]

I think that there could be up to 26 and as low as 16 in 2015

[publicunofficial]

18 to 25 depending on A) Landrieu wins re-election, B) Hagan wins re-election or is beaten by another woman (Ellmers, Berry), and C) Any of these scenarios happen.


1) Shelley Moore Capito or Natalie Tennant takes Jay Rockefeller's seat
2) Alison Lundergan Grimes defeats Mitch McConnell
3) Colleen Hanabusa primaries Brian Schatz and takes his seat.
4) Elizabeth Cheney or Cynthia Lummis takes Mike Enzi's seat (If Enzi retires)
5) Kristi Noem or SHS takes Tim Johnson's seat.

There are other scenarios (Bachmann running and beating Franken, Kim Reynolds beating Steve King and Bruce Braley in Iowa, Lindsey Graham revealing he is in fact an elderly lesbian) but all of them are relatively unlikely.

[hurricanehink]

You've got the right place, don't worry. Stay a while.

4 of the 20 women in the Senate are up for re-election as of now. 2 of them are in danger (LA, NC), 1 of them is likely to win (NH), and 1 is safe (Collins). SMC's Senate victory is extremely likely, so add one more to that list. If Enzi retires then it's likely that Liz Cheney or Cynthia Lummis takes that seat. Even less likely is KY now that they have a respectable candidate. And, of course, there's the chance that Herseth wins that race.

So you're looking around the range of 17-24 female senators next cycle.

Thanks! And I was totally forgetting about how vulnerable Hagan and Landrieu are. Interesting about the prospects of Cheney back in Washington

[free my dawg]

You've got the right place, don't worry. Stay a while.

4 of the 20 women in the Senate are up for re-election as of now. 2 of them are in danger (LA, NC), 1 of them is likely to win (NH), and 1 is safe (Collins). SMC's Senate victory is extremely likely, so add one more to that list. If Enzi retires then it's likely that Liz Cheney or Cynthia Lummis takes that seat. Even less likely is KY now that they have a respectable candidate. And, of course, there's the chance that Herseth wins that race.

So you're looking around the range of 17-24 female senators next cycle.

Thanks! And I was totally forgetting about how vulnerable Hagan and Landrieu are. Interesting about the prospects of Cheney back in Washington

I totally forgot about the possibility of Hanabusa too, so don't feel bad. Thanks Greatness.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Land now leads the polls in Michigan, and Grimes is looking more competitive.

[seanNJ9]

Nunn in Georgia

[Talleyrand]

I see two losing for sure (Landrieu/Hagan) and another one as a possibility (Shaheen).

The Republicans will probably get a number of new women in though (Capito, Handel, Ernst, possibly Stephens, and maybe even Grant).

[RogueBeaver]

18 or 19, depending on what happens in LA/NC. SMC will be the new female Pub senator.

[henster]

I see two losing for sure (Landrieu/Hagan) and another one as a possibility (Shaheen).

The Republicans will probably get a number of new women in though (Capito, Handel, Ernst, possibly Stephens, and maybe even Grant).

Only Capito has a remote chance of making it through the primaries. In the end the Republicans will most likely get one new female Senator while the Dems could lose two (Landrieu, Hagan)

[publicunofficial]

I'll update my list for this this thread:


BASE: 16 Female Senators (Ayotte, Gillibrand, Warren, Mikulski, Stabenow, Klobuchar, Heitkamp, Baldwin, Fischer, McCaskill, Murray, Cantwell, Feinstein, Boxer, Murkowski, Hirono)
17 - Susan Collins wins in Maine
18 - Shelley Moore Capito/Natalie Tennant wins in West Virginia
19 - Jeanne Shaheen wins in New Hampshire
20 - Kay Hagan wins in North Carolina or is somehow beaten by Heather Grant
21 - Mary Landrieu wins in Louisiana
22 - Terri Lynn Land is elected in Michigan
23 - Colleen Hanabusa wins the Democratic primary in Hawaii, then the general
24 - Karen Handel/Michelle Nunn wins in Georgia
25 - Alison Lundergan Grimes wins in Kentucky
26 - Amy Stephens wins in Colorado
27 - Joni Ernst wins in Iowa
28 - Nancy Mace wins in South Carolina


Right now I'd say 19-23 female Senators in the 114th Congress

[eric82oslo]

I'll update my list for this this thread:


BASE: 16 Female Senators (Ayotte, Gillibrand, Warren, Mikulski, Stabenow, Klobuchar, Heitkamp, Baldwin, Fischer, McCaskill, Murray, Cantwell, Feinstein, Boxer, Murkowski, Hirono)
17 - Susan Collins wins in Maine
18 - Shelley Moore Capito/Natalie Tennant wins in West Virginia
19 - Jeanne Shaheen wins in New Hampshire
20 - Kay Hagan wins in North Carolina or is somehow beaten by Heather Grant
21 - Mary Landrieu wins in Louisiana
22 - Terri Lynn Land is elected in Michigan
23 - Colleen Hanabusa wins the Democratic primary in Hawaii, then the general
24 - Karen Handel/Michelle Nunn wins in Georgia
25 - Alison Lundergan Grimes wins in Kentucky
26 - Amy Stephens wins in Colorado
27 - Joni Ernst wins in Iowa
28 - Nancy Mace wins in South Carolina


Right now I'd say 19-23 female Senators in the 114th Congress

Thanks for this awesome list. When you put it this way, even 25 doesn't seem all that unlikely.

[publicunofficial]

And just for bonus points, here's a list of women that I consider to have a strong to outside chance of being elected to the House this November.


Republicans:
-Mia Love (UT-04)
-Mimi Walters (CA-45)
-Barbara Comstock (VA-10)
-Lizbeth Benacquisto (FL-19)
-Martha McSally (AZ-02)
-Wendy Rogers (AZ-09)*
-Elise Stefanik (NY-21)
-Janea Holmquist Newbry (WA-04)
-Marilinda Garcia (NH-02)
-Ellen Andel (FL-18)
-Tootie Smith (OR-05)

Democrats:
-Brenda Lawrence (MI-14)
-Alma Adams (NC-12)
-Anesa Kajtazovic (IA-01)
-Alex Sink (FL-13)
-Gwen Graham (FL-02)
-Aimee Belgard (NJ-03)
-Martha Robertson (NY-23)
-Staci Appel (IA-03)
-Emily Cain (ME-02)
-Ann Callis (IL-13)
-Eloise Gomez Reyes (CA-31)
-Amanda Renteria (CA-21)
-Wendy Greuel (CA-33)
-Kathleen Rice (NY-04)*
-Donna Mercado Kim (HI-01)*
-Pam Byrnes (MI-07)
-Jennifer Garrison (OH-06)
-Suzanne Patrick (VA-02)


*=Would fill left open by a former female member of Congress.

[NewYorkExpress]

+75% Chance of occurring-   Landrieu losing(LA), Collins winning (ME)
50-75% of Occurring (Lundergan Grimes winning (KY), Shaheen winning (NH) Hagan winning (NC) Moore Capito Winning (WV)
30-50% of occurring Lynn Land winning (MI), Hanabusa winning (HI), Tennant Winning(WV) Mace Winning (SC), Ernst Winning (IA), Nunn winning (GA)
-30% of occurring Grant winning (NC), Stephens winning, (CO), Handel winning (GA).

[rpryor03]

I concur with the previous posters. Moore Capito winning will add one more, but Landrieu losing will lose one.

[hurricanehink]

So Hagan and Landrieu lost to men, while Ernst and Capito won to replace men.

Currently, two female senators are retiring in 2016 (Boxer and Mikulski), where there is at least one woman running to replace them. Both Murkowski (R-AK) and Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) are running for re-election. If these seats stay in women's hands, then the number of female senators stays at 20.

For some speculation:
Synema or Kirkpatrick might run against McCain in Arizona
Duckworth or Bustos might run against Kirk in Illinois
Hagan or Cowell might run against Burr in North Carolina

Those seems to be the likeliest three seats to flip from a male to female, keeping the original four incumbents as female seats, in my opinion.

Your thoughts?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So Hagan and Landrieu lost to men, while Ernst and Capito won to replace men.

Currently, two female senators are retiring in 2016 (Boxer and Mikulski), where there is at least one woman running to replace them. Both Murkowski (R-AK) and Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) are running for re-election. If these seats stay in women's hands, then the number of female senators stays at 20.

For some speculation:
Synema or Kirkpatrick might run against McCain in Arizona
Duckworth or Bustos might run against Kirk in Illinois
Hagan or Cowell might run against Burr in North Carolina

Those seems to be the likeliest three seats to flip from a male to female, keeping the original four incumbents as female seats, in my opinion.

Your thoughts?

Probably, Duckworth replacing Kirk and Kamela Harris replaces Boxer.

Net 1 woman senator because Van Hollen most likely will beat Edwards.

I think Dems will net 4-5 seats, which is OH, Pa, WI and IL. Keep CO and NV.

But, unless the House flips, most likely outcome.

[Emperor Charles V]

I'm going out on a limb and say that California will go from female to male. Xavier Becerra looks like he is going to run. Being a respected member of House Democratic Leadership and the potential to become the first Hispanic Senator of the plurality Hispanic state, he would steal much of Kamala Harris's voter base in the blanket primary and make it into the general with whatever sacrificial lamb the GOP puts up. Maryland on the other hand is close to a sure thing where Van Hollen is likely to trounce Edwards in the primary (a result that will probably break more or less among racial lines) and replace Mikulski.

So the number of women is likely to fall from 20 to 18.

[NewYorkExpress]

I'm going out on a limb and say that California will go from female to male. Xavier Becerra looks like he is going to run. Being a respected member of House Democratic Leadership and the potential to become the first Hispanic Senator of the plurality Hispanic state, he would steal much of Kamala Harris's voter base in the blanket primary and make it into the general with whatever sacrificial lamb the GOP puts up. Maryland on the other hand is close to a sure thing where Van Hollen is likely to trounce Edwards in the primary (a result that will probably break more or less among racial lines) and replace Mikulski.

So the number of women is likely to fall from 20 to 18.

If that happens there won't be a Republican... Becerra (or Harris) will narrowly squeak by the sacrificial GOP candidate, while the other person in that duo advances easily.

[windjammer]

I have the feeling there will be less women after this election.

[publicunofficial]

I have the feeling there will be less women after this election.

Boxer is likely replaced by Harris, so that's +0

Mikulski is replaced by either Van Hollen or Edwards, so -1 or +0

Ayotte is only leaving if Hassan runs, so +0 (There are a few other candidates that I think could beat Ayotte, but they are also mostly female)

Patty Murray isn't going anywhere, and Lisa Murkowski I think is pretty secure at the moment.

At this point it looks like net loss of 1, or gain of 0. Other possible places for a woman to join the Senate:

Krysten Sinema or Ann Kirkpatrick in Arizona
Pam Bondi in Florida
Cynthia Coffman in Colorado?
Jackie Walorski in Indiana?
Kay Hagan or Janet Cowell in North Carolina?


I don't expect a major change in either direction.

[TDAS04]

I'd say up to 22 (more is unlikely), but hopefully one will be in the Oval Office so it won't matter so much.

[henster]

+1 Duckworth over Kirk. So 23, and if Cowell runs and wins 24.