Estonia General Election - March 1, 2015

[ag]

do you consider those flawed since you say "Russians"?

No, not really, sounds quite plausible.

It might not even be a matter of emigration - naturally, if you are a Russian-speaker in Estonia you may assimilate into that community, whatever your ancestry is.

Actually, this has always been true. There is a famous (possibly apocriphal) story from Soviet days, in which a Jewish guy from Leningrad vacationing in Estonia tried to make a point that he was not, really, Russian. To which the Estonian riposte was: "Go back to Leningrad and be Jewish there. Here all of you are Russian".

So, I guess, in Estonia we all would be Russian.

[Famous Mortimer]

It would be interesting to see if there is any Russian/Ukrainian split emerging among the Estonia's "Russians". I know of, at least, one Ukrainian nationalist who ran for the Free Party this time.

I would not expect Ukrainians to vote Centre Party nearly as massively as Russians. Centre got 92,1% of Russians last time (which was a huge increase) and is likely to repeat that feat. Reform and SD (and Greens - but that is marginal) were the other parties getting Slavic votes. Pro Patria being de facto mono-ethnic. Free Party populism/anti-establishment appeal might actually attract some Russians as well despite what one might think.

Official population statistic has 1,7% Ukrainians and 25,2% Russians (down from 3,1% and 30,3% respectively in 1989 - so much higher exodus for Ukrainians), do you consider those flawed since you say "Russians"?

Only vaguely related but I don't want to start a whole new topic for this, The Economist ran this article about how the leader of the Lithuanian Polish party has aligned himself with Russia:

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21645522-leader-ethnic-polish-party-tries-broaden-his-appeal-reaching-out-ethnic

[politicus]

Only vaguely related unrelated, but I don't want to start a whole new topic for this, The Economist ran this article about how the leader of the Lithuanian Polish party has aligned himself with Russia:

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21645522-leader-ethnic-polish-party-tries-broaden-his-appeal-reaching-out-ethnic

Of course you should make a separate thread for something happening in a different country and involving a different ethnic group.

[politicus]

Reform has called SD, Pro Patria and Free Party to separate coalition negotiations. SD declined to show up because Reform had decided to negotiate with more than the necessary three parties. There are some tactical games and talk of a government of national unity if everything else fails, but  nobody seems to take this seriously.

Parts of SD are not to keen to continue in coalition with Reform after the defeat. At the end of the month, the party council convenes and new leader will be discussed. Whether Sven Mikser will survive is unclear. It should be almost certain that Pro Patria will elect a new leader to replace Urmas Reinsalu at their convention in May.

The fact that Reform needs to convince one of the two losers to enter into coalition with them makes this diffucult. And the Free Party is not too keen to get into government right away either.

[BaconBacon96]

So Estonia has three conservative parties that split the right-wing vote between them? Is that correct?

[politicus]

So Estonia has three conservative parties that split the right-wing vote between them? Is that correct?

Yes, a SoCon economically populist, a mainstream Conservative and an anti-establishment/anti-corruption populist breakaway. Free Party qualifies as conservative with their general view of the nation, defence, law and order, right wing views on economy etc. despite their anti-establishment rhetoric.

Not sure those parties split the same voter segment, though.

Reform is also right wing on economics (and more so than CPP and Free Party), so it is the Baltic "everybody are right wing just in different ways" scenario. Even the Centre Party is only "left wing" by default (and not willingly, as the name implies). Basically left wing is associated with the Soviet legacy, being pro-Russian and unpatriotic.

[politicus]

SD has given up on their principled opposition to a four party government with the three mainstream right wing parties, but they demand a guarantee that urban poverty and marginalization of poor people is addressed and that combating the low birth rate becomes a priority (so better conditions for low income families with children/single mothers). A four party coalition with 67 seats would be one seat away from electing a president directly in parliament, which would be an advantage.

Free Party demands a "democracy package" that among other things changes the rules of party financing and gives greater transparency and limits to campaign donations.

Reform rules out CPP as government partner - officially mainly for being against the Cohabitation Act, but also because party leadership will not denounce an MPs 2012 blog post saying authoritarian regimes are good at promoting economic growth and fascism has beneficial traits. Euroscepticism and anti-immigration positions play a smaller role, since CPP would have had to compromise on those.

Pro Patria seems determined to implement their tax reform - letting everybody earn 500 euros a month tax free. This will improve living conditions for the poor and help prevent a raise in the minimum wage, but it will require that Estonia abandons its 20% flat income tax, which is a holy grail for Reform.

SD prefers a progressive income tax and could likely agree with Pro Patria on taxes. So Reform might have to cave in.

[politicus]

The Cohabitation Act passed with a very narrow majority and the necessary implementation legislation may be difficult to get through, but EER estimates there is likely a 54-47 majority for it. But it is far from certain. They assume that more SD and Pro Patria MPs will feel free to vote their conscience with no election on the horizon. Still, some MPs will become ministers and have to give up their seats and some MPs will decide to keep their better paying civilian job, if their party does not get into government, so hard to predict.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=post;topic=204195.25;num_replies=31no

Their prognosis:

SD:13 pro/2 con
Center: 10 pro/17 con
Reform: 25 pro/5 con
Free Party: 4/4
Pro Patria 2 pro/12 con
CPP: 0 pro/7 con

[politicus]

A note on IRL (Pro Patria & Res Publica Union)

A large part of the Pro Patria people seems to have joined the Free Party, which means they are left with a Res Publica dominated base, which has less popular appeal.

Observers say they lost because tried to go to the left of Reform, but the center space was already occupied by the Social Democrats and the Center Party. Estonian "left" being too moderate for a moderate Conservative party to have a chance. Chosing a dull and inspiring guy as their PM candidate and relying on celeb candidates (mostly TV journalists) to attract votes were other mistakes.

Ironically, there has been talk about going back to calling the party Pro Patria Union (Isamaaliit), which would signal more popular conservative values, but that might collide with the dominance of (relatively) more economically liberal Res Publica people and send mixed signals.

[politicus]

Center Party leader Edgar Savisaar is seriously ill and had a second operation yesterday and due to an acute infection, doctors had to amputate one of his legs above the knee.

Savisaar is in an intensive care unit suffering from an acute infection. According to doctors, Savisaar is suffering from a Streptococcus bacteria, which caused a toxic syndrome. The syndrome has also damaged his kidneys which are currently supported by a dialysis machine.

Hope he survives.

Given his absolute rule of the Center Party this may influence Estonian politics quite a bit.

Coalition talks among the other parties continue. No result so far.

[politicus]

Reform, Pro Patria and the Social Democrats have agreed on the principles of a new coalition (well, basically just the old government + Pro Patria), but will need to sign an actual coalition agreement before heading for a vote in the Parliament.

PM Rõivas says he hopes the agreement will be finalized this week.

Pro Patria and the Social Democrats will receive four ministries and Reform gets seven incl. PM and a new ministry for EU-affairs.

So a Latvian establishment coalition against Russians and Conservative rebels.
   

[politicus]

Edgar Savisaar recovers well and will according to his doctors be able to return to politics if he wants to. If so he will have to decided whether to carry on as Mayor of Tallinn or take up his seat at the Estonian Parliament - double mandates not allowed. Most likely he will choose Tallinn.
The Center Party's board has decided that Kadri Simson will head the party until Savisaar has recovered.

Observers in Estonia (and Finland) have speculated that a retirement of Savisaar would lead to a breakup of Centre and the creation of a more radical and vocal Russian minority party, while the remaining ethnic Estonians would go to other parties - primarily SD and the Free Party. But it looks like the Great Leader will return.
         
   

[politicus]

Distribution of portfolios:

Reform Party: Prime minister, foreign  affairs, economy and infrastructure, interior, rural affairs (=agriculture), education and research and public administration

Social Democrats: Defence, culture, health and labour, foreign trade and entrepreneurship

Pro Patria: Environment, social security, justice and finance

Priorities:

- strengthen Estonia's security
- improve the living standards of large families
- reduce labour taxes
- reform public and local administration