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mileslunn
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« Reply #25 on: June 24, 2013, 07:23:11 PM »

Any idea where I can get the Ontario results from last election in a spreadsheet format as opposed to PDF as well as maps so I can figure out the results by municipality like I did federally?

Hey now, we're still waiting for the 2011 federal results by municipality Wink

I only did for municipality for Southern Ontario, but I do have the census divisions for every province.  I did two maps, one for the winner and the other right vs. left (red for right and blue for left using the US colours).  I believe I posted it in the discussion on the Canadian election, but if not and you want to re-open that one I will be happy to post them.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #26 on: June 24, 2013, 07:35:54 PM »

Any idea where I can get the Ontario results from last election in a spreadsheet format as opposed to PDF as well as maps so I can figure out the results by municipality like I did federally?

Hey now, we're still waiting for the 2011 federal results by municipality Wink

I only did for municipality for Southern Ontario, but I do have the census divisions for every province.  I did two maps, one for the winner and the other right vs. left (red for right and blue for left using the US colours).  I believe I posted it in the discussion on the Canadian election, but if not and you want to re-open that one I will be happy to post them.

Really? For 2011? I can only remember you doing it for 2008.
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
htmldon
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« Reply #27 on: June 24, 2013, 10:53:15 PM »

This is absolutely outstanding!!!
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mileslunn
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« Reply #28 on: June 24, 2013, 10:53:36 PM »

Any idea where I can get the Ontario results from last election in a spreadsheet format as opposed to PDF as well as maps so I can figure out the results by municipality like I did federally?

Hey now, we're still waiting for the 2011 federal results by municipality Wink

I only did for municipality for Southern Ontario, but I do have the census divisions for every province.  I did two maps, one for the winner and the other right vs. left (red for right and blue for left using the US colours).  I believe I posted it in the discussion on the Canadian election, but if not and you want to re-open that one I will be happy to post them.

Really? For 2011? I can only remember you doing it for 2008.

Yes, I did them too.  I am happy to supply them.  They are simply colour coded by winner not percentage although I do one for Tories over 50% vs. under 50% otherwise right vs. left.  I know many consider it questionable to consider Liberals on the left, but rather right wing vs. non-right wing vote for better terminology.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #29 on: June 25, 2013, 07:04:07 AM »

Any idea where I can get the Ontario results from last election in a spreadsheet format as opposed to PDF as well as maps so I can figure out the results by municipality like I did federally?

Hey now, we're still waiting for the 2011 federal results by municipality Wink

I only did for municipality for Southern Ontario, but I do have the census divisions for every province.  I did two maps, one for the winner and the other right vs. left (red for right and blue for left using the US colours).  I believe I posted it in the discussion on the Canadian election, but if not and you want to re-open that one I will be happy to post them.

Really? For 2011? I can only remember you doing it for 2008.

Yes, I did them too.  I am happy to supply them.  They are simply colour coded by winner not percentage although I do one for Tories over 50% vs. under 50% otherwise right vs. left.  I know many consider it questionable to consider Liberals on the left, but rather right wing vs. non-right wing vote for better terminology.

Well, I'm more interested in the numbers by party. Do you have that map? If not, I can make them if you supply the numbers.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #30 on: June 30, 2013, 11:41:09 AM »

Yeah I have them, just let me know which ones you want.  I can over the next week post by county or subdivision per province while by municipality for Southern Ontario.  They aren't shaded, they just give the winner although I have a US style map for each which is red where the Tories won with over 50% (i.e. The GOP colour) and blue where the Tories got under 50% regardless of winner (i.e. The Democrats colour).
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #31 on: July 01, 2013, 12:29:16 AM »

Well, I'd like to see all the CDs and Southern Ontario municipalities
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mileslunn
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« Reply #32 on: July 01, 2013, 05:07:16 PM »

Here is Southern Ontario by municipality



Most of it is all blue as outside a few cities the Tories pretty much won everything else.  The NDP did win in some rural areas but mostly in Northern Ontario or Indian Reserves.  Rural Southern Ontario went solidly Conservative and in fact most over 50% and several were even over 60%.  Despite that they did not get over 75% in any municipality, while Windsor was the only municipality in Southern Ontario where the NDP got over 50%.  The Tories also got at least 30% in every municipality in Southern Ontario.  The Liberals by contrast only got over 30% in Toronto, Ajax, Pickering, Markham, Richmond Hill, Brampton, Mississauga, Oakville, Guelph, Kitchener, Ottawa, Kingston, Clarence-Rockland, Frontenac Islands, Alfred & Plantaganet, Hawkesbury, East Hawkesbury, Casselman, the Nation.  Otherwise only in urban centres and predominately Francophone municipalities did the Liberals crack the 30% mark.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #33 on: July 01, 2013, 05:14:19 PM »

Here is Southern Ontario US style map, i.e. red where the Tories got over 50% and blue where they got under 50% regardless of who won.



Otherwise the Tories may have only gotten 44% in Ontario (actually 45% if you take Southern Ontario only), but they got over 50% in the vast majority of municipalities.

Here is Ontario by county



The NDP won much of Northern Ontario, but only Hamilton and Essex County in Southern Ontario went NDP although if you go municipality or former, the NDP won by 20 points in the old city of Hamilton and Windsor, but lost pretty much all the surrounding communities to the Tories thus narrowly won both.  The Liberals won both Toronto and Nipissing District.  Even though the Tories won Nipissing-Timiskaming, it was by only 18 votes over the Liberals thus why the Liberals won there while in Toronto the Liberals won fewer seats than the NDP and Tories but their votes were more evenly spread out.  The Tories were mostly in the suburbs while the NDP mostly in the downtown core whereas the Liberal vote was about the same in both.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #34 on: July 01, 2013, 11:15:53 PM »

Very good stuff. Maybe I'll have to do Northern Ontario.

Quebec by municipality would be interesting too.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #35 on: July 02, 2013, 04:59:54 PM »

Very good stuff. Maybe I'll have to do Northern Ontario.

Quebec by municipality would be interesting too.

I have Quebec by RCM, but not every municipality.  The NDP won most although the Tories had a string in the Chaudiere-Appalaches region they won as well as the Bloc Quebecois.  I will post it later.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #36 on: July 02, 2013, 11:11:03 PM »

Here is Quebec by RCM.

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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #37 on: July 03, 2013, 07:24:02 AM »

Wow. The Tories still won 2 MRCs in the Outaouais? 
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MaxQue
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« Reply #38 on: July 03, 2013, 03:08:32 PM »

Wow. The Tories still won 2 MRCs in the Outaouais? 

Two rural, remote and Anglophones MRCs. They lost because they were trashed in Gatineau suburbs.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #39 on: July 03, 2013, 03:33:47 PM »

Wow. The Tories still won 2 MRCs in the Outaouais? 

Two rural, remote and Anglophones MRCs. They lost because they were trashed in Gatineau suburbs.

I thought only Pontiac was Anglo, isn't the other one (La Vallee de la Gatineau?) Franco?
Also, Les Collines de la Gatineau has a high Anglo population, but went NDP. But a lot of the inhabitants are hippies.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #40 on: July 03, 2013, 03:53:08 PM »

Wow. The Tories still won 2 MRCs in the Outaouais? 

Two rural, remote and Anglophones MRCs. They lost because they were trashed in Gatineau suburbs.

I thought only Pontiac was Anglo, isn't the other one (La Vallee de la Gatineau?) Franco?
Also, Les Collines de la Gatineau has a high Anglo population, but went NDP. But a lot of the inhabitants are hippies.

Pontiac: 58,3%
La Vallée de la Gatineau: 16.2%
Les Collines de l'Outaouais: 25.6%

So, you have a point. Cannon seems to have very good results in various towns of the Valley (like Maniwaki) for I reason I don't see currently.

Collines de l'Outaouais is simple. They voted as Montreal suburbs. Through, NDP won a precinct in that area in 2008. Perhaps left-wing Anglophones (but those usually voted Liberal, not NDP).
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mileslunn
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« Reply #41 on: July 03, 2013, 04:38:47 PM »

In the case of La Vallee de la Gatineau it could be simply due to incumbent advantage and it was also quite close whereas Pontiac went quite solidly Conservative.  Also in Collines de l'Outaouais you have many who commute into Gatineau so probably the percentage who are civil servants is fairly high and I suspect not too many of them voted Conservative regardless of whether they were Anglo and Franco.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #42 on: July 03, 2013, 04:41:49 PM »
« Edited: July 03, 2013, 04:45:41 PM by Hatman »

Wow. The Tories still won 2 MRCs in the Outaouais?  

Two rural, remote and Anglophones MRCs. They lost because they were trashed in Gatineau suburbs.

I thought only Pontiac was Anglo, isn't the other one (La Vallee de la Gatineau?) Franco?
Also, Les Collines de la Gatineau has a high Anglo population, but went NDP. But a lot of the inhabitants are hippies.

Pontiac: 58,3%
La Vallée de la Gatineau: 16.2%
Les Collines de l'Outaouais: 25.6%

So, you have a point. Cannon seems to have very good results in various towns of the Valley (like Maniwaki) for I reason I don't see currently.

Collines de l'Outaouais is simple. They voted as Montreal suburbs. Through, NDP won a precinct in that area in 2008. Perhaps left-wing Anglophones (but those usually voted Liberal, not NDP).

I think that poll was in Wakefield, which is Anglo, but very, very left wing.

ETA: NDP won Wakefield in 2006, not 2008. The NDP poll in 2008 was in Cantley.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #43 on: July 03, 2013, 04:43:21 PM »

Here is New Brunswick


The NDP only won Gloucester County which largely lines up Yvon Godin's riding whereas the Liberals won Kent County.  In Restigouche County and Westmoreland County, they were tight three way splits with the Tories barely getting a third of the popular vote.  Madawaska County was their best Francophone county where they got 47%, while in Carleton County they got 68% which was the Tories best showing of any county east of Manitoba.  I believe that county also voted Canadian Alliance back in 2000, so it seems like a fairly conservative area.

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mileslunn
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« Reply #44 on: July 03, 2013, 04:47:26 PM »

Here is New Brunswick using a US style map with red being Conservative over 50% and Blue Conservative under 50% otherwise like GOP vs. Dems.


Pretty much, urban Anglophone and Francophone is Tory under 50%, while rural Anglophone is 50%+ Tory.  I've often wondered though why Anglophones in New Brunswick are so much more conservative than in other Atlantic Provinces.  PEI, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland are mostly Anglophone yet don't vote heavily Tory other than a few pockets in mainland Rural Nova Scotia and even there not quite to the extent as in New Brunswick.  In fact in rural Anglophone New Brunswick, some of the strongest Tory seats outside the Prairies are there.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #45 on: July 03, 2013, 08:40:17 PM »

Here is Nova Scotia by county



Pretty much Cape Breton Island being Liberal, Halifax County which is almost 40% of the population being NDP and the Tories dominating Mainland Rural Nova Scotia.  Hants County is the one exception but much of that is due to Brison's personal popularity.  I suspect had Brison stayed a Tory or not run at all, the Tories would have won there.

US style Nova Scotia by county



Despite dominating Mainland Rural Nova Scotia, the Tories generally got under 50% in most areas.  Pictou County is where MacKay is from so probably his personal popularity had something to do with it while Cumberland County has long been Nova Scotia's most conservative county.  I believe in the 2003 and 2006 provincial elections, the PCs got close to 70% there.



The Tories got over 50% in Prince County, while the Liberals won both Queens and Kings County and in fact the Liberals got over 50% in Kings County.  Interestingly enough, the Tories won most of the polls in the Prince County portion of Malpeque while it was the Queens County portion that saved Wayne Easter (I am guessing a fair number of civil servants who work in Charlottetown commute from the Eastern portions though not sure why).  Ironically provincially it was the opposite as the PCs are strongest on the Eastern end and weakest on the Western end.



Newfoundland & Labrador is fairly straightforward.  NDP wins Avalon peninsula mainly due to their strength in St. John's, Tories win Division 11 since Penashue was Innu and that is where they are strongest while everywhere else goes Liberal.  Interestingly enough it seems the NDP's strongest areas in Newfoundland where previously the Tories strongest.  I am guessing it is more anti-Liberal due those areas being anti-confederation and then after the ABC campaign they swung over to the NDP.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #46 on: July 03, 2013, 08:40:59 PM »

I will do Western Canada for subdivisions in the next few days.
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adma
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« Reply #47 on: July 03, 2013, 08:53:16 PM »

I'm wondering if the historical "language divide" plays a part in NB--and remember, too, that it was the heartland for the Confederation of Regions in 1991...
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #48 on: July 03, 2013, 09:10:39 PM »

I probably made this comment last time, but that straight line is not the Division 10-Division 11 border in Labrador. But anyways, keep up the good work! I can make a national map when this done, just like last time. Would be nice if you had %s, preferably intervals of 5 to match my key.  You can email me them if you wish.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #49 on: July 03, 2013, 09:13:09 PM »

I'm wondering if the historical "language divide" plays a part in NB--and remember, too, that it was the heartland for the Confederation of Regions in 1991...

Agreed. I think rural Anglo NB is a bit wealthier than equivalent areas in NS, Newfieland and PEI, which also contributes.
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