election-atlas.ca

[mileslunn]

Any idea where I can get the Ontario results from last election in a spreadsheet format as opposed to PDF as well as maps so I can figure out the results by municipality like I did federally?

[mileslunn]

Any idea where I can get the Ontario results from last election in a spreadsheet format as opposed to PDF as well as maps so I can figure out the results by municipality like I did federally?

Hey now, we're still waiting for the 2011 federal results by municipality

I only did for municipality for Southern Ontario, but I do have the census divisions for every province.  I did two maps, one for the winner and the other right vs. left (red for right and blue for left using the US colours).  I believe I posted it in the discussion on the Canadian election, but if not and you want to re-open that one I will be happy to post them.

[mileslunn]

Any idea where I can get the Ontario results from last election in a spreadsheet format as opposed to PDF as well as maps so I can figure out the results by municipality like I did federally?

Hey now, we're still waiting for the 2011 federal results by municipality

I only did for municipality for Southern Ontario, but I do have the census divisions for every province.  I did two maps, one for the winner and the other right vs. left (red for right and blue for left using the US colours).  I believe I posted it in the discussion on the Canadian election, but if not and you want to re-open that one I will be happy to post them.

Really? For 2011? I can only remember you doing it for 2008.

Yes, I did them too.  I am happy to supply them.  They are simply colour coded by winner not percentage although I do one for Tories over 50% vs. under 50% otherwise right vs. left.  I know many consider it questionable to consider Liberals on the left, but rather right wing vs. non-right wing vote for better terminology.

[mileslunn]

Yeah I have them, just let me know which ones you want.  I can over the next week post by county or subdivision per province while by municipality for Southern Ontario.  They aren't shaded, they just give the winner although I have a US style map for each which is red where the Tories won with over 50% (i.e. The GOP colour) and blue where the Tories got under 50% regardless of winner (i.e. The Democrats colour).

[mileslunn]

Here is Southern Ontario by municipality



Most of it is all blue as outside a few cities the Tories pretty much won everything else.  The NDP did win in some rural areas but mostly in Northern Ontario or Indian Reserves.  Rural Southern Ontario went solidly Conservative and in fact most over 50% and several were even over 60%.  Despite that they did not get over 75% in any municipality, while Windsor was the only municipality in Southern Ontario where the NDP got over 50%.  The Tories also got at least 30% in every municipality in Southern Ontario.  The Liberals by contrast only got over 30% in Toronto, Ajax, Pickering, Markham, Richmond Hill, Brampton, Mississauga, Oakville, Guelph, Kitchener, Ottawa, Kingston, Clarence-Rockland, Frontenac Islands, Alfred & Plantaganet, Hawkesbury, East Hawkesbury, Casselman, the Nation.  Otherwise only in urban centres and predominately Francophone municipalities did the Liberals crack the 30% mark.

[mileslunn]

Here is Southern Ontario US style map, i.e. red where the Tories got over 50% and blue where they got under 50% regardless of who won.



Otherwise the Tories may have only gotten 44% in Ontario (actually 45% if you take Southern Ontario only), but they got over 50% in the vast majority of municipalities.

Here is Ontario by county



The NDP won much of Northern Ontario, but only Hamilton and Essex County in Southern Ontario went NDP although if you go municipality or former, the NDP won by 20 points in the old city of Hamilton and Windsor, but lost pretty much all the surrounding communities to the Tories thus narrowly won both.  The Liberals won both Toronto and Nipissing District.  Even though the Tories won Nipissing-Timiskaming, it was by only 18 votes over the Liberals thus why the Liberals won there while in Toronto the Liberals won fewer seats than the NDP and Tories but their votes were more evenly spread out.  The Tories were mostly in the suburbs while the NDP mostly in the downtown core whereas the Liberal vote was about the same in both.

[mileslunn]

Very good stuff. Maybe I'll have to do Northern Ontario.

Quebec by municipality would be interesting too.

I have Quebec by RCM, but not every municipality.  The NDP won most although the Tories had a string in the Chaudiere-Appalaches region they won as well as the Bloc Quebecois.  I will post it later.

[mileslunn]

Here is Quebec by RCM.

[mileslunn]

In the case of La Vallee de la Gatineau it could be simply due to incumbent advantage and it was also quite close whereas Pontiac went quite solidly Conservative.  Also in Collines de l'Outaouais you have many who commute into Gatineau so probably the percentage who are civil servants is fairly high and I suspect not too many of them voted Conservative regardless of whether they were Anglo and Franco.

[mileslunn]

Here is New Brunswick


The NDP only won Gloucester County which largely lines up Yvon Godin's riding whereas the Liberals won Kent County.  In Restigouche County and Westmoreland County, they were tight three way splits with the Tories barely getting a third of the popular vote.  Madawaska County was their best Francophone county where they got 47%, while in Carleton County they got 68% which was the Tories best showing of any county east of Manitoba.  I believe that county also voted Canadian Alliance back in 2000, so it seems like a fairly conservative area.

[mileslunn]

Here is New Brunswick using a US style map with red being Conservative over 50% and Blue Conservative under 50% otherwise like GOP vs. Dems.


Pretty much, urban Anglophone and Francophone is Tory under 50%, while rural Anglophone is 50%+ Tory.  I've often wondered though why Anglophones in New Brunswick are so much more conservative than in other Atlantic Provinces.  PEI, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland are mostly Anglophone yet don't vote heavily Tory other than a few pockets in mainland Rural Nova Scotia and even there not quite to the extent as in New Brunswick.  In fact in rural Anglophone New Brunswick, some of the strongest Tory seats outside the Prairies are there.

[mileslunn]

Here is Nova Scotia by county



Pretty much Cape Breton Island being Liberal, Halifax County which is almost 40% of the population being NDP and the Tories dominating Mainland Rural Nova Scotia.  Hants County is the one exception but much of that is due to Brison's personal popularity.  I suspect had Brison stayed a Tory or not run at all, the Tories would have won there.

US style Nova Scotia by county



Despite dominating Mainland Rural Nova Scotia, the Tories generally got under 50% in most areas.  Pictou County is where MacKay is from so probably his personal popularity had something to do with it while Cumberland County has long been Nova Scotia's most conservative county.  I believe in the 2003 and 2006 provincial elections, the PCs got close to 70% there.



The Tories got over 50% in Prince County, while the Liberals won both Queens and Kings County and in fact the Liberals got over 50% in Kings County.  Interestingly enough, the Tories won most of the polls in the Prince County portion of Malpeque while it was the Queens County portion that saved Wayne Easter (I am guessing a fair number of civil servants who work in Charlottetown commute from the Eastern portions though not sure why).  Ironically provincially it was the opposite as the PCs are strongest on the Eastern end and weakest on the Western end.



Newfoundland & Labrador is fairly straightforward.  NDP wins Avalon peninsula mainly due to their strength in St. John's, Tories win Division 11 since Penashue was Innu and that is where they are strongest while everywhere else goes Liberal.  Interestingly enough it seems the NDP's strongest areas in Newfoundland where previously the Tories strongest.  I am guessing it is more anti-Liberal due those areas being anti-confederation and then after the ABC campaign they swung over to the NDP.

[mileslunn]

I will do Western Canada for subdivisions in the next few days.

[mileslunn]

Pretty much, urban Anglophone and Francophone is Tory under 50%, while rural Anglophone is 50%+ Tory.  I've often wondered though why Anglophones in New Brunswick are so much more conservative than in other Atlantic Provinces. 

Different cultures. The rest of the Maritimes is mostly Scottish/Irish and Catholic, southern NB is WASPy, more along the lines of southern Ontario. I've always thought Anglo NB has more in common with northern Maine than the rest of the Maritimes.

While generally true, the South Shore is fairly WASPy yet it was much more competitive.  The only difference is it has a large number of those of German ancestry although Southwestern Ontario, Prairies, BC Interior, and Fraser Valley have large numbers of those groups yet those are for the most part Conservative strongholds.  On the other hand the panhandle of Nova Scotia and Pictou County I believe are mostly Scottish yet vote heavily Conservative while rural Newfoundland is mostly WASP.

[mileslunn]

Here is Western Canada by subdivision



Alberta the Tories won all subdivisions and was also the only province where they got over 80% in a few.  Below is a US style Alberta one and there they only got under 50% in one which in Division 15 and much of the population lives in Banff and Jasper which are tourist locations with major ski resorts



Asides from the West Kootenays where you have a large Draft Dodger community as well as the pacifist Doukhobors, you seem to have a Coast vs. Interior although the Tories won several coastal regional districts including GVRD.  Now if over 50%, it was largely confined to the interior.



Manitoba on an area basis went mostly NDP, but the Tories won in the more populated south as opposed to the more sparsely populated north as shown below.  It seems the NDP generally won in areas where aboriginals were the majority.



If over 50%, not much difference other than the Tories only won a plurality in Division 11 which is where Winnipeg is located.



In Saskatchewan the Tories won all but won division, although in that division it was 62 vs. 26% in favour of the NDP.  Off course that division is overwhelmingly aboriginal



The Tories got under 50% in the subdivisions that include Saskatoon and Regina, but besides that they got over 50% in pretty much every Rural Saskatchewan subdivision and in many cases over 2/3, although none were over 80%.

[mileslunn]

I was able to put together the numbers of the last BC election using the federal boundaries.  I excluded the advanced polls and absentee ballots as it was tough to allocate them properly especially considering some only had a few polls in a given riding.  As such the NDP may have won Kootenay-Columbia and Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission in 2009 (both went Liberal for sure in 2013) while Vancouver Island North might have gone NDP in 2013 (it definitely went NDP in 2009).  In Kootenay-Columbia in 2009 the BC Liberals won by 2 votes if you exclude the advanced and absentee where the NDP tends to do better usually.  In 2013, the BC Liberals won Vancouver Island North by 8 votes also excluding advanced polls and absentee ballots

                                                                       2009                  2013
                                                                       LIB      NDP         LIB       NDP     GRN    CON
Abbotsford                                                       59.2%  27.6%     49.5%  22.8%  3.4%   5.6%
British Columbia Southern Interior                     29.4%  53.0%     31.6%  51.9%   8.6%  2.7%
Burnaby-Douglas                                             48.0%  45.3%     45.1%   43.6%   7.8%  0.0%*
Burnaby-New Westminster                                39.3%  52.4%     38.7%  49.0%   8.3%  1.5%
Cariboo-Prince George                                      50.1%  42.8%     49.9%  29.5%   2.4%  3.3%
Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon                                  48.2%  34.0%     48.1%  34.0%   4.8%  10.9%
Delta-Richmond East                                        48.7%  21.5%     43.3%  22.6%   3.3%   4.4%
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca                                    33.7%  55.4%     30.3%  50.9%   17.6% 0.7%
Fleetwood-Port Kells                                        47.4%   45.5%     49.5%  39.8%    2.8%  6.6%
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo                           49.9%   41.0%     55.0%  36.1%   1.0%   6.0%
Kelowna-Lake Country                                     52.3%   27.1%      56.5% 26.2%   3.0%   11.9%
Kootenay-Columbia                                          44.3%  44.3%      49.6%  41.7%   4.2%   3.4%
Langley                                                          59.3%  33.0%       53.8%   26.2%  8.4%  10.4%
Nanaimo-Alberni                                              43.2% 47.1%        44.7%  42.9%  2.1%  10.1%
Nanaimo-Cowichan                                         34.6%   52.3%      32.6%   44.1%  16.0%  5.3%
Newton-North Delta                                        37.6%  55.9%       44.3%   46.3%  4.3%    3.9%
New Westminster-Coquitlam                            43.5%  48.2%       42.9%  46.2%   8.7%   1.0%
North Vancouver                                             56.8%  29.0%      52.2%   33.4%  6.7%    4.2%
Okanagan-Coquihalla                                      47.5%   32.0%      49.9%   36.7%  1.5%   9.0%
Okanagan-Shuswap                                        42.4%   31.2%      47.6%   31.7%   7.8%  12.3%
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission                    46.2%  45.7%       45.6%  40.4%   8.8%   3.4%
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam              49.0%   44.0%      44.9%   44.0%  3.4%    5.4%
Prince George-Peace River                               53.6%  27.8%       55.5%  20.8%   0.9%  11.9%
Richmond                                                       62.1%  27.6%      52.6%   24.0%   7.9%  7.9%
Saanich-Gulf Islands                                       44.1%  45.9%       33.0%  36.5%   28.5% 0.9%
Skeena-Bulkley Valley                                     41.3%  50.1%      41.0%   46.5%   4.0%   5.6%
South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale                63.2%  27.7%       60.5%  27.0%   3.6%   7.5%
Surrey North                                                  26.7%  66.6%       32.5%  58.2%   1.7%   5.9%
Vancouver Centre                                           42.9%  44.3%       39.2%  48.0%   10.7%  0.0%
Vancouver East                                              28.1%  58.3%       25.5%  60.5%   11.7%  0.0%
Vancouver Island North                                   43.9% 46.7%        43.6%  43.6%  6.6%    6.1%
Vancouver-Kingsway                                      41.1%  51.4%        39.1%  51.8%  8.0%   0.9%
Vancouver-Quadra                                         61.2%  30.1%        54.5%  36.0%  6.8%    0.9%
Vancouver South                                            51.7%  42.9%        48.4% 42.5%  5.5%   3.4%
Victoria                                                          31.3%  53.0%       20.8%  44.2%  34.2%  0.5%
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-                    47.3%  38.2%        45.5%  41.3%  9.8%   1.9%
Sea to Sky Country

Interestingly enough the BC Liberals picked up federal ridings and lost none.  Kootenay-Columbia and Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission definitely went BC Liberal in 2013, while 2009 it could have gone either way depending on advanced polls and absentee ballots.  Nanaimo-Alberni was definitely a BC Liberal pick up while Vancouver Island North is a possible pickup.  Interestingly enough, it looks like all ridings that went Conservative federally (save perhaps Vancouver Island North) went BC Liberal provincially while the NDP won both times 11 of the 12 they won federally.  Burnaby-Douglas was the exception as it went BC Liberal despite going NDP federally.  Of the two federal Liberal ridings, they were split with Vancouver Centre going NDP and Vancouver-Quadra going Liberal although Vancouver Centre was far more competitive than Vancouver-Quadra which was one of the strongest BC Liberal ridings.  Saanich-Gulf Islands went NDP both times and it was the strongest in 2013 for the Green Party provincially although Victoria was stronger.