Electoral Map in 2040-2050
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  Electoral Map in 2040-2050
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Author Topic: Electoral Map in 2040-2050  (Read 25153 times)
HoosierPoliticalJunkie
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« on: April 02, 2013, 10:02:25 PM »

What do you think the electoral map would like like in 2040 in a 50/50 race?  Meaning, what would the tossup map look like in 2040.

Of course, so many things could change between now and then, but what do you think would be the most probable shifts:  would  demographics cause the Southwest and a lot of the deep south:  AZ, TX, MS, GA, SC to trend Dem and the Midwest states like OH, MI, WI, MN, PA, IA, IL would trend GOP? 
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #1 on: April 02, 2013, 10:40:58 PM »

Demographic changes aren't the only factor. Does the GOP succeed at all in Latino/female/youth outreach? If so, to what extent? What ideological direction do both parties take? All these factors could have a massive impact on how the nation votes.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: April 04, 2013, 08:07:21 PM »

If the political divide remains similar to what it is today, I would expect something like this:



The dark colored states would hold even in a landslide for the other party.
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opebo
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« Reply #3 on: April 05, 2013, 06:15:50 PM »

I don't really believe it will change all that much, but lets assume some kind of success for the GOP in the Midwest, and some reduction of the Democrats extreme advantage with Hispanics.  I don't really see much sign of it, but lets give them the best case scenario:

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HoosierPoliticalJunkie
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« Reply #4 on: April 06, 2013, 05:57:15 PM »

If the political divide remains similar to what it is today, I would expect something like this:



The dark colored states would hold even in a landslide for the other party.

Really, Vermont is a D-leaning swing.  The Midwest looks spot-on IMO given current trends and deunionization, but what would cause Vermont to trend to the right?  Also, ditto with Maine and Connecticut.  It seems like social issues really tilt them toward the D side.   
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« Reply #5 on: April 07, 2013, 09:23:59 PM »

Essentially a repost on an earlier thread about this, I haven't changed my opinion significantly.



This is a narrow Democratic victory with today's EVs but in 20 years would be a narrow Republican victory.

The GOP eventually gets its act together, when exactly doesn't matter.  Latinos go back to voting 40/60 or something like that.  This almost exactly balances out with Latino population growth to make the west essentially stagnant.  Arizona is now the Republican's equivelent of Pennsylvania today.

The Republicans make gains in the midwest, solidifying Ohio, making Michigan a pretty solid bet for them, and most surprising, making Illinios a lean R state.  The trio of Iowa, Minnesotta, and Wisconsin stay in the D column together.   Those three states have voted for the Democrats in every election since Reagan's landslides (the sole exception is Iowa in 2004).

The Democrats coninue to creep down the east coast.  North Carolina will be at the national average next year, Georgia will be next, and then finally South Carolina. Florida will still be a slightly R leaning swing state.  The Republican's recovery among latinos will balance out any pro- democratic trends it has.

Alaska will be the next Vermont (and don't even let me get started about Vermont).

New Hampshire will be a lost cause for Republicans, though they will contest New Jersey heavily. Democrats will still win Michigan, Illinios, Pennsylvania, Florida and even Ohio in a good election year, same goes for Republicans with Georgia, South Carolina, Colorado, Iowa and perhaps North Carolina.  I think Virginia will be solidly D by then. 

So this is a good Democratic year.


And this is a good Republican year.
 
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JRP1994
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« Reply #6 on: April 07, 2013, 09:45:46 PM »

In 30-40 years, I expect to see some fairly drastic changes.



Blue: States which I'm pretty confident will be Republican
Red: States which I'm pretty confident will be Democratic
Grey: States which I am not sure how they will lean
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« Reply #7 on: April 07, 2013, 10:05:14 PM »

Essentially a repost on an earlier thread about this, I haven't changed my opinion significantly.



This is a narrow Democratic victory with today's EVs but in 20 years would be a narrow Republican victory.

The GOP eventually gets its act together, when exactly doesn't matter.  Latinos go back to voting 40/60 or something like that.  This almost exactly balances out with Latino population growth to make the west essentially stagnant.  Arizona is now the Republican's equivelent of Pennsylvania today.

The Republicans make gains in the midwest, solidifying Ohio, making Michigan a pretty solid bet for them, and most surprising, making Illinios a lean R state.  The trio of Iowa, Minnesotta, and Wisconsin stay in the D column together.   Those three states have voted for the Democrats in every election since Reagan's landslides (the sole exception is Iowa in 2004).

The Democrats coninue to creep down the east coast.  North Carolina will be at the national average next year, Georgia will be next, and then finally South Carolina. Florida will still be a slightly R leaning swing state.  The Republican's recovery among latinos will balance out any pro- democratic trends it has.

Alaska will be the next Vermont (and don't even let me get started about Vermont).

New Hampshire will be a lost cause for Republicans, though they will contest New Jersey heavily. Democrats will still win Michigan, Illinios, Pennsylvania, Florida and even Ohio in a good election year, same goes for Republicans with Georgia, South Carolina, Colorado, Iowa and perhaps North Carolina.  I think Virginia will be solidly D by then. 

So this is a good Democratic year.


And this is a good Republican year.
 

so what's going on that helps the Dems solidify support in VA, NC and VA?
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« Reply #8 on: April 07, 2013, 10:55:15 PM »

so what's going on that helps the Dems solidify support in VA, NC and VA?
The same trends that have made VA and NC competitive.  Growth of urban areas such as Northern Va and the research triangle, coupled with growth of minorities (african american growth slightly outpaces white growth) and a slight rebound with southern whites once Obama is no longer on the ballot.
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cope1989
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« Reply #9 on: April 08, 2013, 01:07:32 AM »

so what's going on that helps the Dems solidify support in VA, NC and VA?
The same trends that have made VA and NC competitive.  Growth of urban areas such as Northern Va and the research triangle, coupled with growth of minorities (african american growth slightly outpaces white growth) and a slight rebound with southern whites once Obama is no longer on the ballot.

whoops, I didn't mean to list VA twice. I meant to type GA, NC and VA. I hear what you're saying, but why does this trend not extend to South Carolina and why is FL more Republican? Is it the latino vote swinging GOP?
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #10 on: April 08, 2013, 02:45:47 AM »

Being a bit bullish on the geographic shifts of population & banking on the GOP ultimately getting its social act together:





Pro-government and anti-government philosophies remain virtually the same as they are today and are the primary driving forces for underlying social themes within each party's economic policies. As such, the urban/rural divide only grows.

Areas that have lost out on the past decades of growth and prosperity due to shrinking populations have in traditional fashion turned toward the Republican Party, which has solidifed areas such as Ohio, Michigan and & Pennsylvania into reliable Republican states.

Likewise, stable rural states where many residents can sympathize with the concepts of small government decoupled from a regressive social message have swung hard to the Republicans, including states like Montana, the Dakotas and even Hawaii. Most of the Northeast is lost for this reason in combination with the aforementioned issue of general decline.

Areas that have enjoyed booming growth and in many cases, a diversification of their electorates, have generally found their way into the Democratic fold. New Mexico and Nevada are two of the strongest Democratic states at this point, as well as Virginia, Maryland, Delaware and New York. States such as Florida and Georgia have enjoyed majority-minority electorates for 15-20 years by this point. West Virginia has enjoyed a boom of prosperity thanks to the ever-expanding megalopolis. Illinois and New York remain Democratic strongholds due to their heavily urbanized clusters.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #11 on: April 08, 2013, 06:30:41 AM »

In the long-term, I can actually see the Great Plains becoming Democratic-leaning for the first time since 1916 (a mix of a more populist Democratic party and alternative energy bringing more people to the Midwest/West). Manufacturing moves to the South and Plains to be closer to where it's mostly used, thus shifting the Rustbelt to the GOP (other than a few pockets like Wayne, Cuyahoga, Trumbull, etc). With Democrats going populist, the GOP becomes more "Tory", becoming the party of the Interior West (minus D-leaning Montana and swingy New Mexico), Northeast, and Great Lakes. Swing regions include the DC metro, Florida, and parts of the Upper Midwest and Interior West.
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Icefire9
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« Reply #12 on: April 08, 2013, 01:01:35 PM »

so what's going on that helps the Dems solidify support in VA, NC and VA?
The same trends that have made VA and NC competitive.  Growth of urban areas such as Northern Va and the research triangle, coupled with growth of minorities (african american growth slightly outpaces white growth) and a slight rebound with southern whites once Obama is no longer on the ballot.

whoops, I didn't mean to list VA twice. I meant to type GA, NC and VA. I hear what you're saying, but why does this trend not extend to South Carolina and why is FL more Republican? Is it the latino vote swinging GOP?
I think the trend will extend to SC.  I'm guessing (emphasis on guessing, as this entire thread is speculation) that latinos will swing back to the GOP eventually, if only because the GOP has pretty much no other option if they don't want to be a permament minority party.

My guess is that the growth in the number of latinos in the west will counterbalance the GOP's increase in the share of the latino vote, causing it to be essentially a net neutral in those states.
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mattyman
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« Reply #13 on: April 09, 2013, 01:44:01 AM »

In the maps where the Democrats are starting to win in the south, is any of this due to dems becoming somewhat more socially conservative or winning more of the Evangelical vote (eg. if the GOP become more socially moderate)?
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Icefire9
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« Reply #14 on: April 09, 2013, 09:06:16 AM »

In the maps where the Democrats are starting to win in the south, is any of this due to dems becoming somewhat more socially conservative or winning more of the Evangelical vote (eg. if the GOP become more socially moderate)?
Well, Democrats have been able to win VA and NC without being socialy conservative. 
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Sol
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« Reply #15 on: April 09, 2013, 12:51:01 PM »

In the maps where the Democrats are starting to win in the south, is any of this due to dems becoming somewhat more socially conservative or winning more of the Evangelical vote (eg. if the GOP become more socially moderate)?
Most of this would come from increases in Black/transplant populations in Tidewater/Deep South states, so no.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #16 on: April 09, 2013, 02:14:31 PM »

Alright, this is my take at the 2040 election (under the 2030 census-based apportionment of EVs).



Uber-safe D: 93
Solid D: 45
Likely D: 59
Lean D: 63

Total D: 260

Uber-safe R: 68
Solid R: 45
Likely R: 88
Lean R: 77

Total R: 278

The closest States are MI, NC and AZ.

Note that all the Republican advantage is due to Senate-based EVs, without which the Electoral College is a perfect tie (218-218).
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Emperor Charles V
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« Reply #17 on: April 15, 2013, 04:15:19 PM »

Here are the results of my elections in 2040, 2044, 2048 and 2052. Note that the only states on the map are the ones that are presently in the United States for there are many that will be part of the country then that are not now.

2040



Former Governor Kyle Boller from California / Senator Selena Gomez from Texas (Republican)
Secretary of Health and Human Services Eva Longoria from Texas / Vice-President Ryan Seacrest from Georgia (Democrat)

2044



President Kyle Boller from California / Senator David Henrie from Arizona(Republican)
Governor Taylor Lautner from Michigan / Senator Alyson Michalka from Washington (Democrat)

2048



Vice-President David Henrie from Arizona / Senator Kelli Berglund from California(Republican)
Governor Louis DiSanto from Virginia / Senator Nick Pisano from New Jersey(Democrat)

2052



Senator Bradley S. Perry from Florida / Former Senator Vincent Chu from Texas
(Democrat)

Governor Michelle Romano from Pennsylvania / Congressman Curtis D. Hoffman from South Carolina (Republican)
President David Henrie from Arizona / Vice-President Kelli Berglund from California (Libertarian)






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cope1989
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« Reply #18 on: April 15, 2013, 08:54:20 PM »

Wow, young Hollywood has a bright future
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bedstuy
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« Reply #19 on: April 15, 2013, 11:52:10 PM »

I think that prediction is a fool's errand.  There are too many variables unknown to really make an educated guess even.

I think the current trend is the bible belt is getting more conservative relative to the rest of the country and educated people are getting more liberal relative to the rest of the country.  Then, demographically, whites are a lower percentage of the population pretty much everywhere.  But, in my opinion those just forecast to the Democrats winning most Presidential elections in the next couple of decades.   

But, a toss-up map might be:

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PJ
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« Reply #20 on: May 04, 2013, 07:19:32 PM »

What makes you think that Oregon and Colorado would trend Republican. Growing Hispanic population in both states and their socially liberal stances, (Oregon more than Colorado), would probably keep them on the Democratic side. Plus, even if the GOP becomes socially moderate, the Democrats would still be socially liberal.
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PJ
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« Reply #21 on: May 04, 2013, 07:21:28 PM »

Sorry, I meant for that question to go to GM Griffin
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #22 on: May 04, 2013, 07:23:41 PM »

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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #23 on: May 04, 2013, 10:09:25 PM »

Barring a realignment, this is what I would expect the map to be during the 2040's.



The expected Democratic swing in the Southwest does occur, but at a much slower rate, as sometime in the next few years Republicans are able to stop the bleeding with the Hispanic vote. This turns Nevada and Colorado into Democratic states and Arizona into a D-leaning swing. Minority populations and urban growth continues in the Southeast, turning Virginia into a fairly reliable D-state (but with a high floor and a low ceiling). North Carolina and Georgia are turned into D-leaning swings due to this. Florida, by this time is appearing to be the 21st century equivalent of Missouri and Ohio, acting as a bellwether state. With its decline, the Rust Belt swings R, as Ohio and Pennsylvania become fairly reliable Republican states, while the Minnewisowa bloc swings to the right for similar reasons. Michigan and Illinois are the last midwestern states to shift, and while Illinois remains a reach for Republicans it is accessible. The Deep South and Border States eventually stagnate and stop trending R, but are out of reach for Democrats. Mississippi's growing African-American population is cancelled out by the increasing Republican shift of the White population. The moderation of the GOP on social issues keeps New Hampshire a swing state, but does not turn it blue.
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PJ
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« Reply #24 on: May 05, 2013, 09:01:58 PM »
« Edited: May 24, 2013, 07:49:30 PM by Politics Junkie »



Summary: The GOP becomes socially moderate on modern social issues. They recover and become relatively competent during the 2020's, and enjoy success during the 2030's, but a new social issue arises in the 2040's, that starts yet another downward spiral. I must emphasize that the GOP does not recover completely as the majority of America, and specifically Hispanics, prefer a liberal view of social issues rather than a moderate one. States: The west coast (CA, OR, WA, HI) becomes even more of a Democratic stronghold. AK is dem-leaning swing state. NV, CO, and NM become as safe as CA is now. AZ and MT lose their bellwether status that will gain in the 2020's. ID and WY become slightly less Republican, but don't get national attention. UT remains solidly republican. The Dakotas become a fool's gold for the democrats, kind of like PA for the Reps now. NE, KS, and OK become even more Republican. TX becomes the focus of general elections. Most of the south (LA, AR, TN, KY, AL) trend even more Republican. MO and IN have similar politics to the south. MS votes Rep unless Dems have an African American Presidential nominee. FL remains a swing state due to continued influx of Hispanics balanced by continued influx of retirees from Midwest. SC becomes the last east coast state to become a democratic state, but is still bellwether. GA is a dem leaning swing state. NC is relatively safe. VA solidly dem. WV has slight dem trends but is ignored nationally. OH 1st midwest state to go rep, followed by IA, WI, MN and finally MI, which is key swing state. IL remains democratic, but will be in GOP's grasp soon. PA experiences similar trends to the midwest and becomes fool's gold for dems (ironically). MD, DC, and VT trend dem, NY and MA remain the same, NJ, DE, CT, RI have slight rep trends, but ignored nationally. NH is bellwether, and ME becomes fool's gold for GOP.
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