Bennett Haredim draft proposal

[Famous Mortimer]

http://www.jpost.com/Diplomacy-and-Politics/Bennetts-Haredim-draft-plan-Just-1800-exemptions-308428

Just wondering what the Israeli members of the board think of this plan.

It seems to me, welfare payments to the Haredim were worse than the draft exemption and this plan doesn't do anyway with those.

Are secular Israelis able to get welfare payments while attending college?

[DC Al Fine]

The draft is mega HP and I oppose any efforts to make anyone eligible for it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The draft is mega HP and I oppose any efforts to make anyone eligible for it.

The fact that certain people are exempt from draft makes it even more unfair toward those who are subject to it.

[ag]

The draft is mega HP and I oppose any efforts to make anyone eligible for it.

The fact that certain people are exempt from draft makes it even more unfair toward those who are subject to it.

Since income inequality is degrading, let's kill all, except the poorest of the poor. Then they can enjoy their unchanged living standards without feeling envious.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The draft is mega HP and I oppose any efforts to make anyone eligible for it.

The fact that certain people are exempt from draft makes it even more unfair toward those who are subject to it.

Since income inequality is degrading, let's kill all, except the poorest of the poor. Then they can enjoy their unchanged living standards without feeling envious.

You make no sense.

[ag]

You make no sense.

I am merely trying to translate your comment to a different setting. Of course, I am a proud draft dodger myself.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You make no sense.

I am merely trying to translate your comment to a different setting. Of course, I am a proud draft dodger myself.

Trying and failing, yes.

And FTR, I would dodge the draft as well if that horrible abomination still existed in France, but the fact that one entire class of citizens can legally avoid it for the mere reason that they happen to be religious nutjobs is absolutely disgusting.

[Beet]

I think the main benefit is the draft is that it's hoped that if the haredi spend time in the military, it will encourage them to integrate in with the rest of Israeli society (Of course, how this is supposed to happen exactly is unclear. If they're just going to be in segregated halachic units, the move may only end up haredizing the Israeli military in the long run. I wonder how much of it is just the association of the draft requirement with idealizing the pre-1977 status quo). Israel seems to be on course to become a theocracy with a large Arab minority.

[dead0man]

Israel seems to be on course to become a theocracy with a large Arab minority.

Except most of the people living there are secular.

[Famous Mortimer]

From what I've heard, it's pretty easy for secular people to dodge the draft. It's possible that's just a conservative talking point but assuming it's true, that's why I'm more troubled by the welfare.

Is college free in Israel? Do secular Israels get a free ride for the first 4 years of the adulthood like the bill is proposing to give to the ultra-Orthodox?

[Beet]

Israel seems to be on course to become a theocracy with a large Arab minority.

Except most of the people living there are secular.

In another generation, a majority of Jewish children will be haredi.

[Famous Mortimer]

Less than 10% of the Israeli population is ultra-Orthodox.

There's a far bigger risk that the National Religious/Religious Zionist crowd (The Jewish Home people) will become a majority and even if they don't, they'll probably come to constitute a majority of the military and political leadership at least.

That's troubling for a whole different set of reasons, since they tend to be even more hawkish than the ultra-Orthodox.

[Beet]

Less than 10% of the Israeli population is ultra-Orthodox.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.haaretz.com/business/survey-finds-30-of-israeli-primary-school-pupils-are-ultra-orthodox-1.455461

If the current generation of haredi children maintains the total fertility rate of their parents, then in the next generation, haredi children will be a clear majority, and it won't be close. When you add in the Arab children (plus the fact that the West Bank is going to be carved up into bantustans), secular Jews will be just a fraction of the population in about 2 generations.

[DC Al Fine]

Israel seems to be on course to become a theocracy with a large Arab minority.

Except most of the people living there are secular.

Not for long. The Ultra-Orthodox are making way more babies than secular Israelis (something like 5-6 births/woman vs 1-2 for seculars) and they have extremely high retention rates.

[Hnv1]

Populist and unneeded, we don't need them to join our colossal military which has thousands of people in it already who don't really do anything. We need them to go out and work and start turning the IDF into a professional armed force

[danny]

Less than 10% of the Israeli population is ultra-Orthodox.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.haaretz.com/business/survey-finds-30-of-israeli-primary-school-pupils-are-ultra-orthodox-1.455461

If the current generation of haredi children maintains the total fertility rate of their parents, then in the next generation, haredi children will be a clear majority, and it won't be close. When you add in the Arab children (plus the fact that the West Bank is going to be carved up into bantustans), secular Jews will be just a fraction of the population in about 2 generations.

It's a little more complicated than that, these future predictions of Israeli demographic have a history of ending up completely wrong. If you were to believe demographers from the 60's, Israel should have been majority Arab for a while now.

[ag]

I think the main benefit is the draft is that it's hoped that if the haredi spend time in the military, it will encourage them to integrate in with the rest of Israeli society

How quickly do people forget history. Ever heard of Cantonists?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cantonist

[Beet]

I think the main benefit is the draft is that it's hoped that if the haredi spend time in the military, it will encourage them to integrate in with the rest of Israeli society

How quickly do people forget history. Ever heard of Cantonists?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cantonist

I see. But again, it's just that without integration, in a couple of generations there's a very high chance the haredi will become an absolute majority and thus Israel will become a theocratic state. Yes, previous demographic projections from the 1960s about the Arab population failed to pan out, but that is likely because those were based on simplistic extrapolations of a fertility rate that was based on the Arabs' poverty. The demographers failed to see that when people get wealthier (or just more educated and have available contraception), the fertility rate tends to fall. That happens all over the world. However, there's no reason to think this will apply to the haredi, as they have been living in an affluent society for decades. There is no reason to think their TFR will change before Israel becomes both theocratic and relatively impoverished, even if their labor force participation rate increases.

[ag]

I think the main benefit is the draft is that it's hoped that if the haredi spend time in the military, it will encourage them to integrate in with the rest of Israeli society

How quickly do people forget history. Ever heard of Cantonists?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cantonist

I see. But again,

But then again, it is fascinating to observe how easty it is to substitute the ideal of a Jewish democratic state with the idea of the non-Jewish undemocratic military formation

Then, of course, one should have long realized that the main objection to the ispravnik cutting off Jewish beards was that the objecter wasn't the ispravnik.

[politicus]

The draft is mega HP and I oppose any efforts to make anyone eligible for it.

The fact that certain people are exempt from draft makes it even more unfair toward those who are subject to it.

Since income inequality is degrading, let's kill all, except the poorest of the poor. Then they can enjoy their unchanged living standards without feeling envious.

Flawed logic. The very poor would be quite a lot better of if you killed the rich and the middle class. Resources like agricultural land, housing, cars and furniture would suddenly be available to them. So despite a lower level of production this group would increase their standard of living. In the long run this advantage would get smaller since they couldnt maintain industrial production and modern infrastructure, but even in a more primitive society they would still be better of than at the bottom of contemporary Western society. And at least they would have had a giant party for 4-5 years squandering the wealth of the rich.

[DC Al Fine]

The draft is mega HP and I oppose any efforts to make anyone eligible for it.

The fact that certain people are exempt from draft makes it even more unfair toward those who are subject to it.

Since income inequality is degrading, let's kill all, except the poorest of the poor. Then they can enjoy their unchanged living standards without feeling envious.

Flawed logic. The very poor would be quite a lot better of if you killed the rich and the middle class. Resources like agricultural land, housing, cars and furniture would suddenly be available to them. So despite a lower level of production this group would increase their standard of living. In the long run this advantage would get smaller since they couldnt maintain industrial production and modern infrastructure, but even in a more primitive society they would still be better of than at the bottom of contemporary Western society. And at least they would have had a giant party for 4-5 years squandering the wealth of the rich.

An interesting thought. I think they would still be absolutely worse off if we are discussing the poorest of the poor. The poorest among us often have issues such as drug addiction or disability that would drastically harm them if you killed off all the human capital from the middle/upper class