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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderator: Brittain33)
| | |-+  Cook releases 2014/6 PVI data
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Author Topic: Cook releases 2014/6 PVI data  (Read 3009 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: April 04, 2013, 06:26:46 pm »
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Here's the spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjYj9mXElO_QdDloYUU4bElrM01KQkRNZE5tUGhQRVE#gid=1
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7.35, 3.65

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Sawx, King in the North
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« Reply #1 on: April 04, 2013, 07:09:31 pm »
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Great, great news about California. I honestly didn't think the demographics were trending that blue that quickly. The new gains there should hold up, and CA-10 and CA-21 should be Democratic by at least 2016 (or at least CA-10 will be). And when Buck McKeon decides to retire, that seat's likely to flip too. Coffman certainly looks much worse for re-election now. And of course there's Gary Miller, who's doomed if he faces a Democrat in the runoff.

Bad news is Rahall (and WV in general). I don't think going for Capito is a very good idea, but this makes me a lot more nervous about his chances. I don't know how good of a candidate he is compared to Matheson, but he's going to have to work his ass off as hard as Matheson does to win.

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King
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« Reply #2 on: April 04, 2013, 07:39:39 pm »
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There's 26 Republican held seats within R+2 for 2014 and 19 seats within R+5 that are less than 70% white.  A Democratic takeover through the gerrymander is more possible than I thought with these ratings.

It would probably still require a 55-44 national PV win in midterms, thoguh.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #3 on: April 04, 2013, 07:45:46 pm »
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Yeah, it would require a double digit Dem lead.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
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« Reply #4 on: April 05, 2013, 12:06:37 am »
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And in visual format:



Apologies for any errors.
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Miles
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E: 0.65, S: -1.74

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« Reply #5 on: April 05, 2013, 01:14:37 am »
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I was going to do a map like that, Smid, but you make the best PVI maps!
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Brittain33
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« Reply #6 on: April 05, 2013, 09:42:54 am »

Great, great news about California. I honestly didn't think the demographics were trending that blue that quickly.

I am concerned about analyzing it that way. Could it be that these new numbers reflect the leap from 2004 to 2008, and then not much change to 2012? 2004, when Bush did relatively well among Hispanics, dropping off? You see a similar change in the Hispanic districts in south Texas.
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Miles
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« Reply #7 on: April 05, 2013, 01:39:34 pm »
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I wonder what kind of PVI shifts we'd get in southern/Appalachian districts with Hillary.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: April 05, 2013, 07:45:53 pm »
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I never realized IA was a natural D gerrymander until now.  Must be the small cities/towns vs. rural ranching divide that we see in NE and KS?
 
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Smid
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« Reply #9 on: April 05, 2013, 09:41:40 pm »
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I was going to do a map like that, Smid, but you make the best PVI maps!

It's your map, Earl's colours (as per bottom right corner), and Cook's figures. I just put them together. Actually, you can upload it to the Facebook page. I would, but can't from my phone...
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Miles
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« Reply #10 on: April 05, 2013, 09:42:24 pm »
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I was going to do a map like that, Smid, but you make the best PVI maps!

It's your map, Earl's colours (as per bottom right corner), and Cook's figures. I just put them together. Actually, you can upload it to the Facebook page. I would, but can't from my phone...

Will do!
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #11 on: April 06, 2013, 08:08:31 am »
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I never realized IA was a natural D gerrymander until now.  Must be the small cities/towns vs. rural ranching divide that we see in NE and KS?
 

I don't see any gerrymandering! Iowa is tilting dem. If IOWA's PVI were 0:
1st district: D+4
2nd district:D+3
3rd district:R+1
4th district:R+6
It's somewhat homogeneous. In a neutral year, all could be in play if we have a tea party candidate in the 4th district.
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Flo   it seems like everytime i talk to you i have some sort of illness
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« Reply #12 on: April 06, 2013, 01:47:11 pm »
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You can't get more Tea Party then Steve King.
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Supreme, Almighty, All Knowing, All Seeing, Eternal Judicial Spirit Entity of the Glorious South Region.

Don't ever forget how easy it can all slip away: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=208279.0

Daylight lift me into shape. I must have been asleep for months. I found myself alone, alone, alone above a raging sea...
Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #13 on: April 06, 2013, 02:09:38 pm »
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You can't get more Tea Party then Steve King.

I disagree with you. Paul broun is worse Tongue.
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Flo   it seems like everytime i talk to you i have some sort of illness
Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US state senates
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Eternal Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #14 on: April 08, 2013, 07:16:34 am »
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You can't get more Tea Party then Steve King.

I disagree with you. Paul broun is worse Tongue.


Well, let me know when he moves to Sioux City, IA. Tongue
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Supreme, Almighty, All Knowing, All Seeing, Eternal Judicial Spirit Entity of the Glorious South Region.

Don't ever forget how easy it can all slip away: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=208279.0

Daylight lift me into shape. I must have been asleep for months. I found myself alone, alone, alone above a raging sea...
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