Does Kirk run in Illinois?

[Mr. Illini]

I know it is a few years away, but does Mark Kirk run for re-election in Illinois? He just endorsed SSM. Some say it is a political move to win re-election, others say it is him deciding to give his real opinion because he knows he won't run for re-election so he doesn't have to worry about the ILGOP. His stroke has had a huge effect on him, but he seems to have returned to the political stage as a maverick leader. Thoughts?

Also, I would like to say that it has been a privilege having the Senator represent me in Washington since the turn of the century. He was my Congressman from 2001-2010 and has been my Senator since 2010. His fiscal conservatism and social sanity have made me proud, and I will proudly give him my vote, public support, and possibly money if he does choose to run again.

[Supersonic]

I honestly do hope he does run for re-election, he's one of my favourite members of Congress.

[krazen1211]

He will try but he will lose.

[Franzl]

He will try but he will lose.

vicious gerrymandering?

[Maxwell]

I am not optimistic about his chances, but he has better chances than any other Illinois Republican, plus if the Illinois Dem manage to nominate a meh candidate who makes an incredibly insensitive remark about his stroke that definitely ups things, but I think Dems will be looking for the best and the brightest against Senator Kirk (aka not Alexi Giannoulias).

[TDAS04]

I don't think that the risk of him losing the GOP primary would be that huge; even if SSM doesn't have majority-support among the Illinois GOP by then, they probably won't care enough to defeat him in the primary.  He would probably be more vulnerable in the general election in any case, since it's a mostly Democratic state.

[Keystone Phil]

No, he's going to run in Hawaii.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This hurts Kirk in a potential primary; it helps Kirk in a general election run.

[publicunofficial]

I think he'll run, but I hope he doesn't

I really like Kirk, and I wish he was in a state where the Democrats had no chance, but he's in a blue state in a presidential year. He's got no chance. It'd feel better if the Dems took an empty seat than snatching it from him.

As for the possibility of the Dems nominating a bad candidate, the most likely candidates are Madigan (In the off chance she doesn't primary Quinn), Mike Quigley, or Tammy Duckworth. None of those three are weak candidates who'd make fun of his stroke or do something stupid.

[krazen1211]

He will try but he will lose.

vicious gerrymandering?

Well, that's probably why he ran for Senate in the first place, yes. But not why he will lose in 2016.

[Indy Texas]

It wouldn't surprise me if he retired after one term. Wasn't Alan Dixon the last person to hold that seat for more than one term without retiring or getting defeated?

[Mr. Illini]

It seems like most of you think he will run. The stroke was a major event and he still is not 100%. You don't think that will motivate him to spend some time at home?

[sg0508]

In a presidential year, he's going to have a problem. He barely won back in 2010 in a very strong GOP year with lower turnout.  It's going to be tough.

[freepcrusher]

I think he'll run, but I hope he doesn't

I really like Kirk, and I wish he was in a state where the Democrats had no chance, but he's in a blue state in a presidential year. He's got no chance. It'd feel better if the Dems took an empty seat than snatching it from him.

As for the possibility of the Dems nominating a bad candidate, the most likely candidates are Madigan (In the off chance she doesn't primary Quinn), Mike Quigley, or Tammy Duckworth. None of those three are weak candidates who'd make fun of his stroke or do something stupid.

Duckworth is bad enough to lose to Kirk.

[publicunofficial]

I think he'll run, but I hope he doesn't

I really like Kirk, and I wish he was in a state where the Democrats had no chance, but he's in a blue state in a presidential year. He's got no chance. It'd feel better if the Dems took an empty seat than snatching it from him.

As for the possibility of the Dems nominating a bad candidate, the most likely candidates are Madigan (In the off chance she doesn't primary Quinn), Mike Quigley, or Tammy Duckworth. None of those three are weak candidates who'd make fun of his stroke or do something stupid.

Duckworth is bad enough to lose to Kirk.

I've heard complaints about her but I don't actually know why she's so hated. Care to tell me why?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Come to thing of it, she did fall far short of the 62% I anticipated she would net against Walsh, so maybe there is something there.

[Badger]

I think he'll run, but I hope he doesn't

I really like Kirk, and I wish he was in a state where the Democrats had no chance, but he's in a blue state in a presidential year. He's got no chance. It'd feel better if the Dems took an empty seat than snatching it from him.

As for the possibility of the Dems nominating a bad candidate, the most likely candidates are Madigan (In the off chance she doesn't primary Quinn), Mike Quigley, or Tammy Duckworth. None of those three are weak candidates who'd make fun of his stroke or do something stupid.

Duckworth is bad enough to lose to Kirk.

I've heard complaints about her but I don't actually know why she's so hated. Care to tell me why?

Not hated so much as underwhelming. By most reports, her campaigning and interpersonal skills simply don't match up to her stellar candidate resume. She's so great on paper, she apparantly fails to meet (perhaps inflated) expectations in person.

[ill ind]

  I don't know if he runs or not.
  2010 seems to have been high water mark for the GOP in Illinois.  We desperately need a viable alternative to the Dems, but the GOP right wing is desperately attempting to put their party back into 'joke' status here with all their internal squabbling.

  On the other hand, Kirk consistently was successful at getting reelected in a District that favored Dems.

Ill_Ind

[Mr.Phips]

He probably does, but almost certainly loses.  He won by just a hair in the best GOP year in a century over a complete crook.  Presidential year turnout in Chicago will be way too much for him to overcome.

Illinois is getting to the point where Democrats can lose every single county in the state but Cook and still win statewide. 

[Maxwell]

I think he'll run, but I hope he doesn't

I really like Kirk, and I wish he was in a state where the Democrats had no chance, but he's in a blue state in a presidential year. He's got no chance. It'd feel better if the Dems took an empty seat than snatching it from him.

As for the possibility of the Dems nominating a bad candidate, the most likely candidates are Madigan (In the off chance she doesn't primary Quinn), Mike Quigley, or Tammy Duckworth. None of those three are weak candidates who'd make fun of his stroke or do something stupid.

Duckworth is bad enough to lose to Kirk.

I've heard complaints about her but I don't actually know why she's so hated. Care to tell me why?

Not hated so much as underwhelming. By most reports, her campaigning and interpersonal skills simply don't match up to her stellar candidate resume. She's so great on paper, she apparantly fails to meet (perhaps inflated) expectations in person.

I wondered why that Joe Walsh race was much closer than I thought it would be. I thought that kid would get crushed even in a big Republican district because he was just such a little prick, but she was within 10 points of losing it.

[morgieb]

The reasons I can see....

1. Joe Walsh was better funded than say Biggert most likely.
2. Duckworth was seen as a little bit of an out-of-state type which perhaps could've cost her.

[King]

Even if he hadn't suffered a stroke, he was always destined to be a one-termer.  Illinois is too Democratic during Presidential years.  Peter Fitzgerald won this seat in the 1998 midterms and was polling so bad against the field in 2004 he didn't even bother to run again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only reason why he won in 2010, was that Quinn wasn't strong enough to pull Ginnoulius through. I hope Dan Hynes does make a political comeback.  If Lisa Madigan does be governor, then it will be a toss up if hynes run. Quigley or duckworth would make it a close race but at the end may not win.

[David St. Hubbins II]

I've tried to find recent approvals for Kirk, but I'd reckon between the stroke and his moderate that they are at least decent. I'd think if he's healthy enough to run he has at least a fighting chance; Scott Brown was tied or ahead of Warren in a more Democratic state for a quite a while.

One dynamic people should consider is the impact of the 2016 Presidential race, and the make-up of the Senate going in. It's quite reasonable that Democrats will enter 2016 with 52-53 senate seats, and Hillary Clinton could appear poised to win handily. In 2012 Republicans like Brown were hurt by the fact that a) senate control was very much on the line and b) the possibility of a Romney win (hence a desire to keep the Senate Democratic to check him). In 2016 Democrats will almost certainly gain senate seats (who's even vulnerable for them? Reid? Michael Bennet?), and if Hillary looks like CoC-in-waiting then Kirk then many moderates might vote for Kirk limit the Democrats' power.

I give Kirk a very reasonable 40-45% of victory should he run.