Cook releases 2014/6 PVI data

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjYj9mXElO_QdDloYUU4bElrM01KQkRNZE5tUGhQRVE#gid=1

[free my dawg]

Great, great news about California. I honestly didn't think the demographics were trending that blue that quickly. The new gains there should hold up, and CA-10 and CA-21 should be Democratic by at least 2016 (or at least CA-10 will be). And when Buck McKeon decides to retire, that seat's likely to flip too. Coffman certainly looks much worse for re-election now. And of course there's Gary Miller, who's doomed if he faces a Democrat in the runoff.

Bad news is Rahall (and WV in general). I don't think going for Capito is a very good idea, but this makes me a lot more nervous about his chances. I don't know how good of a candidate he is compared to Matheson, but he's going to have to work his ass off as hard as Matheson does to win.

[King]

There's 26 Republican held seats within R+2 for 2014 and 19 seats within R+5 that are less than 70% white.  A Democratic takeover through the gerrymander is more possible than I thought with these ratings.

It would probably still require a 55-44 national PV win in midterms, thoguh.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, it would require a double digit Dem lead.

[Smid]

And in visual format:



Apologies for any errors.

[Miles]

I was going to do a map like that, Smid, but you make the best PVI maps!

[Brittain33]

Great, great news about California. I honestly didn't think the demographics were trending that blue that quickly.

I am concerned about analyzing it that way. Could it be that these new numbers reflect the leap from 2004 to 2008, and then not much change to 2012? 2004, when Bush did relatively well among Hispanics, dropping off? You see a similar change in the Hispanic districts in south Texas.

[Miles]

I wonder what kind of PVI shifts we'd get in southern/Appalachian districts with Hillary.

[Skill and Chance]

I never realized IA was a natural D gerrymander until now.  Must be the small cities/towns vs. rural ranching divide that we see in NE and KS?
 

[Smid]

I was going to do a map like that, Smid, but you make the best PVI maps!

It's your map, Earl's colours (as per bottom right corner), and Cook's figures. I just put them together. Actually, you can upload it to the Facebook page. I would, but can't from my phone...

[Miles]

I was going to do a map like that, Smid, but you make the best PVI maps!

It's your map, Earl's colours (as per bottom right corner), and Cook's figures. I just put them together. Actually, you can upload it to the Facebook page. I would, but can't from my phone...

Will do!

[windjammer]

I never realized IA was a natural D gerrymander until now.  Must be the small cities/towns vs. rural ranching divide that we see in NE and KS?
 

I don't see any gerrymandering! Iowa is tilting dem. If IOWA's PVI were 0:
1st district: D+4
2nd district:D+3
3rd district:R+1
4th district:R+6
It's somewhat homogeneous. In a neutral year, all could be in play if we have a tea party candidate in the 4th district.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

You can't get more Tea Party then Steve King.

[windjammer]

You can't get more Tea Party then Steve King.

I disagree with you. Paul broun is worse .

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

You can't get more Tea Party then Steve King.

I disagree with you. Paul broun is worse .

Well, let me know when he moves to Sioux City, IA.