Maryland’s leftward swing

[greenforest32]

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Read more at http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/marylands-leftward-swing/2013/04/04/2fb2ff5a-97d9-11e2-814b-063623d80a60_story.html

[traininthedistance]

Maryland is now more left-wing than Massachusetts.

[greenforest32]

Looks pretty likely it'll be the 11th state to allow election-day registration too: http://www.capitalgazette.com/news/general_assembly/general-assembly-passes-bill-expanding-early-voting-allowing-same-day/article_731be9c2-533b-5e0b-b5f4-1e370ff2a15b.html

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California and Connecticut passed that recently: http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/same-day-registration.aspx

[Sol]

A lot of it has to do with demographics. You hear a great deal about the left wing power of the dc suburbs on VA, but it has been as influential in MD.

It's also pretty heavily gerrymandered.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Heartening news.

[TNF]

Heartening news.

Agreed. Hopefully O'Malley will sign a paid sick days law, a state version of EFCA, and a higher minimum wage, too. (And maybe single-payer like Shumlin?)

[opebo]

I find it heartening because I can't help believe this continuing trend is indicative of the future trajectory of Virginia.

[patd25]

Seeing that Democrats actually increased their number in Maryland's house delegation in 2012, and the more conservative Virginia is also veering to the left, Democrat incumbents don't have much to really worry about.

[HoosierPoliticalJunkie]

Maryland's gone from being a +10 to +15 D state in the 90's to mid 2000's to something closer to a 2:1 Democrat state.  This may seem like a trivial difference, but it's enormously important in the statehouse because supermajorities can wield such immense power. 

[Mr.Phips]

Maryland is now more left-wing than Massachusetts.

The difference between Maryland and Massachussetts is that Maryland is much less elastic/swingable due to the fact that the Dem strength comes from minority voters, unlike Massachusetts. 

[Skill and Chance]

Maryland is now more left-wing than Massachusetts.

The difference between Maryland and Massachussetts is that Maryland is much less elastic/swingable due to the fact that the Dem strength comes from minority voters, unlike Massachusetts. 

This is also why many of us think it will be very hard for the Republicans to get VA back in a presidential year, as opposed to CO, PA, NH, IA, etc. where there are more true swing voters.

[Skill and Chance]

Seeing that Democrats actually increased their number in Maryland's house delegation in 2012, and the more conservative Virginia is also veering to the left, Democrat incumbents don't have much to really worry about.

The thing with VA is that the lower house is so brutally gerrymandered right now that Democrats would probably have to win by 6X/3X statewide to take it back.  So I don't see D's taking full control of VA until at least 2022 regardless of what it does presidentially.

[traininthedistance]

Seeing that Democrats actually increased their number in Maryland's house delegation in 2012, and the more conservative Virginia is also veering to the left, Democrat incumbents don't have much to really worry about.

The thing with VA is that the lower house is so brutally gerrymandered right now that Democrats would probably have to win by 6X/3X statewide to take it back.  So I don't see D's taking full control of VA until at least 2022 regardless of what it does presidentially.

Virginia is a state where any sort of "neutral" map would actually be a Republican gerrymander (really, most of them are).  When you take into account the natural packing of NoVA and the need for VRA districts in Richmond/Southside, the Republicans really don't need to anything nefarious to get a map that favors them.  Or course, there is still room for nefarious shenanigans anyway.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Seeing that Democrats actually increased their number in Maryland's house delegation in 2012, and the more conservative Virginia is also veering to the left, Democrat incumbents don't have much to really worry about.

The thing with VA is that the lower house is so brutally gerrymandered right now that Democrats would probably have to win by 6X/3X statewide to take it back.  So I don't see D's taking full control of VA until at least 2022 regardless of what it does presidentially.

Virginia is a state where any sort of "neutral" map would actually be a Republican gerrymander (really, most of them are).  When you take into account the natural packing of NoVA and the need for VRA districts in Richmond/Southside, the Republicans really don't need to anything nefarious to get a map that favors them.  Or course, there is still room for nefarious shenanigans anyway.

That's true in general. "Neutral" maps would tend to favor Republicans, since large cities are often 70+% Democrat, while small cities, suburbs and rural areas are 55-60% Republican. Even pro-Democratic gerrymanders like the 2002 Californian one have tons of wasted votes in areas like San Francisco.

[HoosierPoliticalJunkie]

Seeing that Democrats actually increased their number in Maryland's house delegation in 2012, and the more conservative Virginia is also veering to the left, Democrat incumbents don't have much to really worry about.

The thing with VA is that the lower house is so brutally gerrymandered right now that Democrats would probably have to win by 6X/3X statewide to take it back.  So I don't see D's taking full control of VA until at least 2022 regardless of what it does presidentially.

Virginia is a state where any sort of "neutral" map would actually be a Republican gerrymander (really, most of them are).  When you take into account the natural packing of NoVA and the need for VRA districts in Richmond/Southside, the Republicans really don't need to anything nefarious to get a map that favors them.  Or course, there is still room for nefarious shenanigans anyway.

That's true in general. "Neutral" maps would tend to favor Republicans, since large cities are often 70+% Democrat, while small cities, suburbs and rural areas are 55-60% Republican. Even pro-Democratic gerrymanders like the 2002 Californian one have tons of wasted votes in areas like San Francisco.

Yeah.  A "fair" map for Virginia would probably have a bunch of the districts each taking a chunk out of Richmond, NoVa, Virginia Beach, Norfolk, etc. 

[traininthedistance]

Seeing that Democrats actually increased their number in Maryland's house delegation in 2012, and the more conservative Virginia is also veering to the left, Democrat incumbents don't have much to really worry about.

The thing with VA is that the lower house is so brutally gerrymandered right now that Democrats would probably have to win by 6X/3X statewide to take it back.  So I don't see D's taking full control of VA until at least 2022 regardless of what it does presidentially.

Virginia is a state where any sort of "neutral" map would actually be a Republican gerrymander (really, most of them are).  When you take into account the natural packing of NoVA and the need for VRA districts in Richmond/Southside, the Republicans really don't need to anything nefarious to get a map that favors them.  Or course, there is still room for nefarious shenanigans anyway.

That's true in general. "Neutral" maps would tend to favor Republicans, since large cities are often 70+% Democrat, while small cities, suburbs and rural areas are 55-60% Republican. Even pro-Democratic gerrymanders like the 2002 Californian one have tons of wasted votes in areas like San Francisco.

The 2002 California map was incumbent-protection, not pro-Dem.  (Unless you're referring to the state house maps, which I'm unfamiliar with?)

[bgwah]

Suburban DC has a large middle class black population that has concentrated in Maryland. Presumably a lot of the blacks leaving DC are going to PG County and Charles County.

[greenforest32]

Looks pretty likely it'll be the 11th state to allow election-day registration too: http://www.capitalgazette.com/news/general_assembly/general-assembly-passes-bill-expanding-early-voting-allowing-same-day/article_731be9c2-533b-5e0b-b5f4-1e370ff2a15b.html

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California and Connecticut passed that recently: http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/same-day-registration.aspx

Yup: http://www.capitalgazette.com/news/government/general-assembly-passes-bill-expanding-early-voting-allowing-same-day/article_8ba57080-547a-53c4-a47f-3b4738371acb.html

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[Mr.Phips]

Seeing that Democrats actually increased their number in Maryland's house delegation in 2012, and the more conservative Virginia is also veering to the left, Democrat incumbents don't have much to really worry about.

The thing with VA is that the lower house is so brutally gerrymandered right now that Democrats would probably have to win by 6X/3X statewide to take it back.  So I don't see D's taking full control of VA until at least 2022 regardless of what it does presidentially.

Virginia is a state where any sort of "neutral" map would actually be a Republican gerrymander (really, most of them are).  When you take into account the natural packing of NoVA and the need for VRA districts in Richmond/Southside, the Republicans really don't need to anything nefarious to get a map that favors them.  Or course, there is still room for nefarious shenanigans anyway.

That's true in general. "Neutral" maps would tend to favor Republicans, since large cities are often 70+% Democrat, while small cities, suburbs and rural areas are 55-60% Republican. Even pro-Democratic gerrymanders like the 2002 Californian one have tons of wasted votes in areas like San Francisco.

Yeah.  A "fair" map for Virginia would probably have a bunch of the districts each taking a chunk out of Richmond, NoVa, Virginia Beach, Norfolk, etc. 

A fair map in Virginia(and most of the south for that matter) would look pretty much like it did pre-1991 redistricting.  There were very few county splits anywhere in the South back then except for in the big cities. 

[Хahar 🤔]

Seeing that Democrats actually increased their number in Maryland's house delegation in 2012, and the more conservative Virginia is also veering to the left, Democrat incumbents don't have much to really worry about.

The thing with VA is that the lower house is so brutally gerrymandered right now that Democrats would probably have to win by 6X/3X statewide to take it back.  So I don't see D's taking full control of VA until at least 2022 regardless of what it does presidentially.

Virginia is a state where any sort of "neutral" map would actually be a Republican gerrymander (really, most of them are).  When you take into account the natural packing of NoVA and the need for VRA districts in Richmond/Southside, the Republicans really don't need to anything nefarious to get a map that favors them.  Or course, there is still room for nefarious shenanigans anyway.

That's true in general. "Neutral" maps would tend to favor Republicans, since large cities are often 70+% Democrat, while small cities, suburbs and rural areas are 55-60% Republican. Even pro-Democratic gerrymanders like the 2002 Californian one have tons of wasted votes in areas like San Francisco.

The 2002 California map was incumbent-protection, not pro-Dem.  (Unless you're referring to the state house maps, which I'm unfamiliar with?)

All maps were incumbent-protection.

[DS0816]

Maryland is now more left-wing than Massachusetts.

The difference between Maryland and Massachussetts is that Maryland is much less elastic/swingable due to the fact that the Dem strength comes from minority voters, unlike Massachusetts. 

This is also why many of us think it will be very hard for the Republicans to get VA back in a presidential year, as opposed to CO, PA, NH, IA, etc. where there are more true swing voters.

The Republicans won't be winning back Pennsylvania unless they're winning a presidential election by a national margin of at least five percentage points.

When a Democrat prevails … Iowa and New Hampshire carry.

Colorado is now trending with the country as is Virginia. No more than 3.53 percent is spread has been between them at any point since 1996, when Bob Dole won over Colo. in a Republican pickup. That 3.53 percent spread was in 2004. All other elections (1996, 2000, 2008, and 2012) were even closer in connection with each other.