Malaysia election 2013

[JohnCA246]

That's much better than expected isn't it?

[jaichind]

BN's victory came mostly the way many people expected.  It lost the Chinese vote but made up for it by taking Malay vote from PAS.  BN making gains in places like Kelantan which is a PAS stronghold is how it is making up for losses elsewhere.

[jaichind]

PK leader Anwar plans to contest some of the results as BN gains majority.

[jaichind]

So far it is BN 112 PK 58. 

[jaichind]

Sarawak.  In 2008 it was BN 29 PK 2.  In 2013 it is BN 25 PK 6.

[jaichind]

Opposition's Anwar refuses to concede in controversial Malaysia election

[jaichind]

BN set to win 128 seats in all, losing 12 seats from 2008.

[jaichind]

Right now it is BN 122 PK 71.  Note within PK it is PAS (16); DAP (35); PKR (20).  DAP clearly is the party that gains within the PK camp due to the swing of the Chinese vote toward PK.  On the other side of the ledger, PAS and PKR lost seats, especially PKR.

[jaichind]

BN 124 PK 73.


 

[opebo]

Any maps?  My Malaysian friends are all crying now.. of course they're all Chinese.

[後援会]

Not sure what to feel. I honestly like Najib more than Ibrahim even if I'm not a fan of the BN at all. Maybe Najib gets a mandate within his party?

I'm going to be a pessimist though and not be surprised if he gets canned in an inter-party coup.

[jaichind]

BN 128 PK 78.  If BN ends up losing seats which it will but most likely in the high single digits, then Najib's future is cloudy.   He did not get the 2/3 majority needed for him to make sure he stays in charge but did not lose enough seats to ensure that UNMO will oust him.  Especially when the election is not really over as opposition may dispute 20-30 seats.   One thing I did notice looking at the results that close elections are won by BN by a ratio or something like 4 to 1 when in theory it should be 1 to 1.  PK might be on to something but they will need proof.

[jaichind]

Not sure what to feel. I honestly like Najib more than Ibrahim even if I'm not a fan of the BN at all. Maybe Najib gets a mandate within his party?

I'm going to be a pessimist though and not be surprised if he gets canned in an inter-party coup.

I would imagine you would not like Anwar.  As I mentioned before, he is the Ozawa of Malaysian politics.  I think unless he is able to make fraud stick in this election, the PK did not gain enough ground for him to retain his position as leader of opposition.

[jaichind]

BN 131 PK 84

[jaichind]

BN 133 PK 86, 3 seats left with no official result.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

PR supporters are claiming BN brought in workers from Bangladesh to vote for them.
http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-967755

[Vosem]

One thing I did notice looking at the results that close elections are won by BN by a ratio or something like 4 to 1 when in theory it should be 1 to 1. 

Not necessarily -- it could just be a sign of better-allocated resources. In the 2012 presidential election in the US Romney won just 2 states by less than 9% (NC, GA) while Obama won 10 states by less than 9% (FL, OH, VA, CO, PA, NH, IA, NV, WI, MN). That's a 5:1 ratio, even greater than that you're noticing, but all it demonstrates is that Obama allocated resources better, not that he cheated.

On the other hand, Malaysia's democracy has clearly been dominated by the BN to an unhealthy degree for much of its history; I doubt the BN is a fair player. But ratio of close races isn't proof that one party or another cheated.

[jaichind]

I got something right, BN will most likely lose the popular vote.   With two seats still undeclared, BN polled 5.107 million votes to Pakatan Rakyat’s 5.353 million, for a deficit of 246,584 votes.  Looks like the deficit would be around 2% just like I predicted.  Looks like I underestimated the swing of the Chinese vote toward PK but at the same time underestimated the swing of the Malay vote toward BN.  The bigger Chinese swing was not as useful as they merely added to already massive DAP victories.

[jaichind]

All seats announced.  BN 133 (-7) PK 89 (+7).   Within PK it is PAS (21) (-2) ; DAP (38) (+10) ; PKR (30) (-1)

[jaichind]

PK did not make a big breakthrough in Johor as I expected.  Johor went from BN 25 PK 1 to BN 21 PK 5.  While PK took all the seats with very high Chinese concentration, it failed to win those seats with medium level of Chinese voters.  I would surmise that the large Chinese swing most likely triggered a inverse Malay swing to BN fearing a Chinese takeover of Johor.  BN also took a 2/3 majority in the Johor state assembly.

[jaichind]

One way to look at why BN lost the popular vote by over 2% but still won 60% of the seats would be gerrymandering.  But it is more than gerrymandering.  It is really an allocations of seats that is really not proportional to the population.  The population ans seat allocation of Malaysia by state are


Rank   State               Population           Seats
1   Selangor               5,411,324               22
2   Johor               3,233,434               26
3   Sabah               3,120,040               25
4   Sarawak               2,420,009               31
5   Perak               2,258,428               24
6   Kedah               1,890,098               15
7   Kuala Lumpur       1,627,172               11
8   Penang                1,520,143              13
9   Kelantan                1,459,994              14
10   Pahang                1,443,365              14
11   Terengganu        1,015,776                8
12   Negeri Sembilan   997,071                8
13   Melaka                   788,706                6
14   Perlis                   227,025                3
15   Labuan                     85,272                1
16   Putrajaya                     67,964                1  

Selangor is pro-PK, Johor, Sabah and Sarawak are pro-BN.  You can see how such a setup puts PK in a disadvantage.  Even within Selangor, the 5 seats BN won all had less voters than the 17 seats the PK won.  So it would not be accurate to call this system gerrymandering since that would assume each district are roughly the same size.  It is more like an extreme version of Japan before 1993.

[jaichind]

There seems to be some confusion on exactly what the popular vote share of the two alliances are.  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysian_general_election,_2013
Seems to indicate BN 5,237,033 46.66% and PK 5,623,984 50.1%.

By my caluation which takes into account BN supported independents.  It could be my numbers are based on older numbers and the new official numbers will match wiki.  Anyhow I have it at:

Total   11077092
   
BN   5303373   47.88%

UNMO   3319413   29.97%
MCA   882104   7.96%
MIC   243737   2.20%
Gerakan   180637   1.63%
PBB   232390   2.10%
SUPP   133603   1.21%
Other BN   311489   2.81%

PK   5607156   50.62%

DAP   1736206   15.67%
PAS   1616622   14.59%
PRK   2254328   20.35%

[jaichind]

Another stat to look at the district size disparity.  Of the top 33 vote getters, of which 32 won, 30 are from PK and 3 from BN.  Also, of the bottom 80 winning candidates in terms of total votes won, 75 are from BN and 5 are from PK.

[ag]

So, looking at the state results, PK lost Kedah  and BN also held Perak, where it's control has been based on defectors.  Selangor, Penang and Kelatan stay with PK - and with huge majorities at that.

One funny thing: loosing BN honchos, instead of showing a modicum of grace, all seem to blame the "ungrateful" people.

[ag]

An interesting feature of it all is, the complete collapse of MCA. They are down to se en federal and 11 state seats. BN is now, basically, just UNMO. The government's ethnic identity is clearly established.