Official Arkansas 2014 Gubernatorial Thread

[free my dawg]

Mike Ross is in, will announce on the 17th.

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I'm conflicted about how I feel. I think Halter is awesome, but honestly I'm not sure of his chances against Hutchinson. Ross certainly makes this race more competitive than he does.

[Incipimus iterum]

good choice we might have a chance to keep the Governors seat in democrat hands

[RogueBeaver]

I'd say Tossup/Tilt D with Ross. Hutchinson is the ARGOP's Stenberg. We'll see how Dem primary voters feel. Hutchinson would probably beat Halter, but we're talking varying degrees of statewide weakness rather than strong/weak. From what I've read Pub primary voters aren't terribly happy with Hutchinson either, but they won't have a real alternative.

[greenforest32]

I really don't understand why states like Arkansas have an elected Governor when the state legislature can override the gubernatorial veto with a simple majority.

[Miles]

I know this is unlikely, but I'd kinda like to see Halter drop down to LG.

[Vosem]

I think Hutchinson is favored...Republicans have been overperforming in Arkansas of late and Ross faces a primary challenge from Halter which will force him left, while it seems Hutchinson will get to skate. And as a former important NRA figure Hutchinson should have no problem with fundraising; and he's run statewide before (and comes from a political family, I believe) whereas Ross hasn't. I'm not sure this'll even be closer than 5-points-ish.

[Niemeyerite]

I think Hutchinson is favored...Republicans have been overperforming in Arkansas of late and Ross faces a primary challenge from Halter which will force him left, while it seems Hutchinson will get to skate. And as a former important NRA figure Hutchinson should have no problem with fundraising; and he's run statewide before (and comes from a political family, I believe) whereas Ross hasn't. I'm not sure this'll even be closer than 5-points-ish.

Not in Arkansas.

[RogueBeaver]

There is progressive discontent with Ross, you can see it on the local blogs. Indeed there are anonymous robocalls trashing Ross' voting record from the left.

http://naturalstatereport.wordpress.com/2013/04/10/shadowy-robocall-hits-ross/

[RogueBeaver]

Now they're robocalling Ross on abortion, the subject being Ross' vote to defund Planned Parenthood. This is going to be one nasty primary... and the Pubs still have a crap candidate.

http://talkbusiness.net/2013/04/robocall-ties-ross-to-rapert-on-abortion-issue/

[Old Man Svensson]

Hopefully Halter bats him out of the park.

[windjammer]

Please Bill Halter, drop the race! You are too liberal. Your state is Arkansas, not California!

[RogueBeaver]

Please Bill Halter, drop the race! You are too liberal. Your state is Arkansas, not California!

The two wings despise each other and aren't that far apart numbers-wise if 2010 is any indicator. If Ross wants some enthusiasm from them he'll need to make some concessions. Perhaps a running mate acceptable to both?

[Miles]

Please Bill Halter, drop the race! You are too liberal. Your state is Arkansas, not California!

The two wings despise each other and aren't that far apart numbers-wise if 2010 is any indicator. If Ross wants some enthusiasm from them he'll need to make some concessions. Perhaps a running mate acceptable to both?

Running mate? The Gov and LG are elected seperately.

[RogueBeaver]

Please Bill Halter, drop the race! You are too liberal. Your state is Arkansas, not California!

The two wings despise each other and aren't that far apart numbers-wise if 2010 is any indicator. If Ross wants some enthusiasm from them he'll need to make some concessions. Perhaps a running mate acceptable to both?

Running mate? The Gov and LG are elected seperately.

My mistake, but the point still stands. Would love to see some polling of both gubernatorial and Senate races.

[emcee0]

Hopefully this can stay in Dem hands.. but I'm doubtful. Arkansas would be a very scary place if it is completely taken over by the GOP, hearng what kind of bills are being passed through their congress.

[Miles]

Hopefully this can stay in Dem hands.. but I'm doubtful. Arkansas would be a very scary place if it is completely taken over by the GOP, hearng what kind of bills are being passed through their congress.

If the legislature stays R and the Ds lose both statewide races, AR is officially OK version 2.0.

[RogueBeaver]

Hopefully this can stay in Dem hands.. but I'm doubtful. Arkansas would be a very scary place if it is completely taken over by the GOP, hearng what kind of bills are being passed through their congress.

If the legislature stays R and the Ds lose both statewide races, AR is officially OK version 2.0.

If Ross won the governorship then he might help them in the House, where the Pubs are only up 51-48. Of course depending on whether he makes it out of the primary and whether Hutchinson underperforms or not.

[Miles]

Hopefully this can stay in Dem hands.. but I'm doubtful. Arkansas would be a very scary place if it is completely taken over by the GOP, hearng what kind of bills are being passed through their congress.

If the legislature stays R and the Ds lose both statewide races, AR is officially OK version 2.0.

If Ross won the governorship then he might help them in the House, where the Pubs are only up 51-48. Of course depending on whether he makes it out of the primary and whether Hutchinson underperforms or not.

I'm a bit skeptical about the legislature flipping back. For the rest of the Southern states, once they've flipped R, they'll probably stay R for the foreseeable future.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I'm willing to bet the Dem legislature gerrymander is just as bad as the congressional one, so.

[RogueBeaver]

Ross attended an important liberal event in Little Rock this week.

http://www.arktimes.com/ArkansasBlog/archives/2013/04/13/gubernatorial-campaign-underway-ross-spotted-with-liberals#readerComments

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I really don't understand why states like Arkansas have an elected Governor when the state legislature can override the gubernatorial veto with a simple majority.

So his veto is irrelevant on everything? California used to require a 2/3rds majority to pass the budget, and still does to raise taxes, in which cases the governor's veto was irrelevant.

[greenforest32]

I really don't understand why states like Arkansas have an elected Governor when the state legislature can override the gubernatorial veto with a simple majority.

So his veto is irrelevant on everything?

Pretty much. Just read the news out of Arkansas since early this year when the new (Republican) legislature convened. They've been overriding Beebe's (D) vetos on everything from voter ID to a 20 week abortion ban and then another 12-week abortion ban. Arkansas is a weird state actually. They require a 3/4 supermajority for both tax increases and to pass the budget:

http://www.ncsl.org/issues-research/budget/state-tax-and-expenditure-limits-2010.aspx

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http://www.ncsl.org/issues-research/budget/supermajority-vote-requirements-to-pass-the-budget.aspx

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edit: It actually turns out 7 states have the simple majority override for the Governor's veto: http://www.nga.org/files/live/sites/NGA/files/pdf/BOSTable3.16.pdf

They are Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Pennsylvania (!), Tennessee, and West Virginia.

[Indy Texas]

edit: It actually turns out 7 states have the simple majority override for the Governor's veto: http://www.nga.org/files/live/sites/NGA/files/pdf/BOSTable3.16.pdf

They are Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Pennsylvania (!), Tennessee, and West Virginia.

Jacksonian Democracy at its worst. Indiana and Pennsylvania seem like odd states for that rule, though.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Yup, it's gonna get ugly.

[Miles]

Yup, it's gonna get ugly.

And Halter was only running against Lincoln for three months...this will be drawn out much longer.