WA State Geography and House Districts

[KingSweden]

WA State has some interesting districts that could get more competitive over time in the next few cycles. My rundown of every district, please add your thoughts!

WA-1: Was supposed to be competitive in 2012, clearly designed to be split between the parties, though Suzan DelBene jumped out to a surprisingly big win over John Koster. A less conservative candidate than Koster and who hails from the Seattle suburbs instead of rural Snohomish County is likely more competitive here, though the district trends Dem.

WA-2: Though it contains military installations in Everett and Oak Harbor, this district is pretty heavy D lean since the late 1990s.

WA-3: Got less competitive without Olympia after 2010 redistricting, though likely trending Dem eventually too. Jaime Herrera Beutler likely safe here for a while. Vancouver is pretty conservative for being a Portland suburb, so you'd need a Blue Dog to win this district when you add in places like Camas, Kelso and Centralia.

WA-4: This is Doc Hastings' seat until he retires, though if Hispanic pop. in East Wenatchee and Yakima are activated better by state Dems they could make GOP sweat here. Still, very conservative district that's only more safe for Hastings now. State Sen. Curtis King from Yakima could be a successor one day.

WA-5: Though Spokane itself is pretty evenly split between D and R, the surrounding suburbs and then the rural towns towards Canada, Idaho and Oregon make this pretty safe R territory. Rep. Cathy McMorris-Rodgers is safe due to her leadership position in the House as well. If she ever decides to retire (not sure why she would), Spokane Mayor David Condon is regarded in the area as a likely successor, especially since he was once her Chief of Staff.

WA-6: Fundamentals (rural communities, white working class) should make it more competitive, but now that Tacoma has been districted in, Derek Kilmer is safe here. Kilmer could succeed Senator Murray or Cantwell whenever they decide to retire, just based on his age.

WA-7: Seattle-based. Safe D, enough said.

WA-8: Used to be super competitive, but if Dave Reichert could survive when he had to contend with inner suburbs of Seattle, he can certainly do okay now that his district is almost all rural.

WA-9: With heavy D areas in Seattle and south King, this is safe D for foreseeable future even with moderate-to-conservative Bellevue included.

WA-10: Olympia and Tacoma are safe D areas. Denny Heck likely safe here for foreseeable future.

[Miles]

Good. WA political geography isn't my strong area, but this was helpful.

[Benj]

"Moderate-to-conservative" Bellevue? Maybe in the 90s. It's one of the most Democratic towns in the district, much more so than places like Auburn or Federal Way.

[ajc0918]

"Moderate-to-conservative" Bellevue? Maybe in the 90s. It's one of the most Democratic towns in the district, much more so than places like Auburn or Federal Way.

Is Federal Way really that democratic? My aunt and uncle live there. They're pretty conservative, that doesn't mean anything, but that's interesting.

[Benj]

"Moderate-to-conservative" Bellevue? Maybe in the 90s. It's one of the most Democratic towns in the district, much more so than places like Auburn or Federal Way.

Is Federal Way really that democratic? My aunt and uncle live there. They're pretty conservative, that doesn't mean anything, but that's interesting.

My point was that it isn't very Democratic (like high-50s for Obama), so calling Bellevue (around 65% Obama) the non-Democratic anchor on WA-09 is... strange. Once you get south of Renton King County is not very Democratic at all, so calling "south King" Democratic is just wrong.

Apparently Auburn is in Reichert's district, though, so bad example. Kent, Des Moines, SeaTac and Tukwila are similar (mid-to-high-50s Obama), though.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

"Moderate-to-conservative" Bellevue? Maybe in the 90s. It's one of the most Democratic towns in the district, much more so than places like Auburn or Federal Way.

He's not entirely wrong.  Bellevue still votes for all the Eyman initiatives, despite backing Democratic candidates in the vast majority of statewide races (like many other places, I know, but still).  It also houses some large corporations+"rich yuppies".    lol



And welcome to the Forum, KingSweden! 

[Seattle]

"Moderate-to-conservative" Bellevue? Maybe in the 90s. It's one of the most Democratic towns in the district, much more so than places like Auburn or Federal Way.

Is Federal Way really that democratic? My aunt and uncle live there. They're pretty conservative, that doesn't mean anything, but that's interesting.

Apparently Auburn is in Reichert's district, though, so bad example. Kent, Des Moines, SeaTac and Tukwila are similar (mid-to-high-50s Obama), though.

Kent is the most similar and it's right around 60%, I believe, but Des Moines, SeaTac, and especially Tukwila are all super D. Tukwila gave Obama 73%. SeaTac was ~65%, Des Moines ~63/64. Bellevue's Obama percentage in '08 was 64%, it went down some '12.

A thing to remember though, Bellevue still supports Republicans and fiscally conservative candidates at the local level more so than Des Moines (similar Obama percentage) and barely less so than Kent (a smaller Obama percentage). Also, the Federal Way/Kent/Des Moines/SeaTac/Tukwila/Renton area swung D in 2012, take of that what you will.

Also, welcome to the forum KingSweden! We've got an awesome WA mega thread in the Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections forum. You should take a peek.

[Sbane]

Basically Bellevue is middle to upper middle class and mostly white and asian. Federal Way/Kent/Des Moines/Seatac area is much more working class, and seems to be becoming more minority at a quicker pace. It has a lot of working class whites, which is why it is a little more Republican, especially at the Presidential rather than local level, but they are being replaced by minorities. Perhaps that is why those areas swung to the Democrats in 2012. That was just my impression from being around that area.

[Alcon]

I think this is a good basic summary.  I have some kind of OCD nitpicks.

* I would say Spokane is pretty strongly Democratic; the county is split, because it's outvoted by Spokane Valley and the exurban rural areas, but the city rarely votes Republican.

* East Wenatchee is actually a little less Hispanic than Wenatchee, and both are heavily white.  It would take a hell of a lot of Hispanic activation to make that district competitive for Hastings.  Democrats can't even do decently in the least white legislative district here (South Yakima/Columbia River), which Obama even won in 2008.

* Tacoma was actually more in WA-6 before redistricting, as far as I remember.

* Bellevue may be less Democratic than Federal Way when it comes to incumbents (more soft Democrats), but it's definitely not "moderate-to-conservative."  Obama lost some ground last year, but only because in he did exceptionally well among the rich in 2008.  Bellevue's minority population is growing and upper middle class whites aren't exactly returning to the GOP in even 2004-level numbers.  Bellevue will probably always lean conservative on non-populist fiscal issues (like income tax), but that's about it at this point.

Not a correction, but FYI:  Federal Way has some modestly Republican areas, but it has a relatively high working-class and minority population, especially in the multi-unit housing (which it has a lot of.)  It's more GOP now than Bellevue mostly because the Republican Party hasn't collapsed among working-class whites the way it has among upper-middle-class ones.  However, the GOP would keep losing a few percentage points a year here based on demographic trends alone.

[Alcon]

Oh, also:

1. I totally didn't mean to rip off what you said, Sbane, I didn't see your post first I think you're incredibly spot-on, especially for just visiting the error.

2. Welcome to the forum, KingSweden!

[KingSweden]

Thank you all for your warm welcomes.

I grew up in Bellevue and my experience was always that it was "soft conservative" - like someone said, supports Eyman initiatives, local Republicans and erstwhile conservative causes (see the Bellevue city council's attitude towards the East Link light rail for a good example; they've finally accepted a light rail line, but only after much fighting with Sound Transit and after watering down the line so much that it will be a far cry from what the infrastructure's price tag demands).

Reichert won two heavily contested elections when much of his district was Bellevue, Sammamish and Issaquah (lumping the whole Eastside into one, I know...). The elections years were '06 and '08... in a D-leaning region, you'd think a generic D would have beat him, but Reichert survived not one but two D-waves, including one with Obama at the top of the ticket. I'd chalk this up to Darcy Burner being his opponent both times though. She was kind of a nut, if I recall.

I've always wondered, and maybe somebody can posit a theory, as to why WA-6 is regarded a safe-to-lean D. Norm Dicks survived '94 here while the rest of the states' D delegation was nearly wiped out. The Olympic Peninsula is very white and very working class. Even with much of Tacoma, the fundamentals of this district don't seem to favor Ds in the long term. Any thoughts?

[LastVoter]

Thank you all for your warm welcomes.

I grew up in Bellevue and my experience was always that it was "soft conservative" - like someone said, supports Eyman initiatives, local Republicans and erstwhile conservative causes (see the Bellevue city council's attitude towards the East Link light rail for a good example; they've finally accepted a light rail line, but only after much fighting with Sound Transit and after watering down the line so much that it will be a far cry from what the infrastructure's price tag demands).

Reichert won two heavily contested elections when much of his district was Bellevue, Sammamish and Issaquah (lumping the whole Eastside into one, I know...). The elections years were '06 and '08... in a D-leaning region, you'd think a generic D would have beat him, but Reichert survived not one but two D-waves, including one with Obama at the top of the ticket. I'd chalk this up to Darcy Burner being his opponent both times though. She was kind of a nut, if I recall.

I've always wondered, and maybe somebody can posit a theory, as to why WA-6 is regarded a safe-to-lean D. Norm Dicks survived '94 here while the rest of the states' D delegation was nearly wiped out. The Olympic Peninsula is very white and very working class. Even with much of Tacoma, the fundamentals of this district don't seem to favor Ds in the long term. Any thoughts?

White working class is "inelastic".