Israel Labor Party leadership race.

[Famous Mortimer]

Has to be held within 14 months of the last election.

Likely to be sooner.

Already announced candidates:

Erel Margalit: Newly elected MK. Venture capitalist by profession. Advocate of horrible right-wing economic policies, I don't know why he's even in Labor. He campaigned last time but dropped out before the vote to endorse fellow third wayer Isaac Herzog. He obviously has no chance.

Likely candidates:

Shelly Yachimovich: Incumbent leader. Left-wing on both economics and peace although her choice to not campaign on peace issues has led to some criticism. Backed by social activist/New Left/housing protest types.

Eitan Cabel: Former deputy of Amir Peretz. Former Secretary General of the Labor Party. Unsuccessful Peretz backed candidate for leader of the Histadrut labor federation. Likely to be backed by union types. He also goes through the motions of criticizing Yachimovich for not pushing peace enough but he's unlikely to push it himself if he wins. Pushing economics at the expensive of peace was, after all, a policy invented by his and Yachimovich's former mentor Amir Peretz.

Isaac Herzog: 2 time former leadership candidate. Top vote getting in the last Labor primary and thus number 2 on the national list. Son of a former President. Another Third Wayer but not as right-wing as Margalit. Like Cabel he criticizes Yachimovich for not advocating for peace enough. Also like Cabel, he probably wouldn't advocate that hard for it if he actually won. He's more likely to campaign on Yesh Atid style platitudes.

Possible candidates:

Daniel Ben-Simon: Sephardic former MK who lost his seat in the last election. Blames Yachimovich for his loss. Both because (again) she wasn't dovish enough and because (more troubling accusation) she neglected Sephardic voters by stuffing the party's ranks with Ashkenazi social activists like Stav Shaffir and Itzik Shmuli.

Avishay Braverman: Former university president and left-wing economist. Perennial Labor dream candidate for Fiance Minister. He ran in the last 2 leadership elections but dropped out before the campaigning really heated up.

Gabi Ashkenazi: Former Chief of Staff. Was widely expected to join whatever party Tzipi Livni was in after his mandatory cooling off period ended. Now that she's gone and made herself unelectable though, some have speculated he might join Labor instead. He would be a very serious candidate. Unsure when his cooling off period does or did end, but he's probably more likely to run if the race is held later.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Pushing economics at the expensive of peace was, after all, a policy invented by his and Yachimovich's former mentor Amir Peretz.

This will never cease to be amusing.

[Famous Mortimer]

Mitzna was probably the only Laborite who legitimately wanted to push the peace issue.

Everyone else is just pretending for the sake of politics.

[Hnv1]

The only one who was able to unseat Shelly was Peretz with his bulk of party members, Now only Eini (head of the workers federation) could possibly win

[Famous Mortimer]

Race has been set for November 21.

[Famous Mortimer]

Isaac Herzog is in.

Even bigger, he was endorsed by Margalit (who dropped out) AND CABEL.

Former Kadima member Nachman Shai (who has been pretty right-wing up to this point, boycotting an Obama speech and calling for a grand coalition) endorsed Yachimovich.

[RedPrometheus]

I met Yachimovich a couple of months ago and I think she's a great politician, so I'm routing for her. It's unfortunate that the political left its unable to win any elections in Israel anymore.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does this actually make Herzog favourite, or are things not that simple?

[Famous Mortimer]

The conventional wisdom is that Yachimovich is still favored.

Of course, the conventional wisdom is often wrong in Israel. Still, it's a crap shoot at best.

Additionally, Yachimovich won the battle to have primaries in November. All her opponents wanted it later, so they could have more time to recruit new supporters.

[Famous Mortimer]

Actually, come to think of it, I would say the team up between Herzog and Cabel is a sign of desperation.

Still, Labor leadership races are always close, the Israeli media loves push polling to make races more exciting, and Herzog was the top vote getter in the last two primaries (albeit the last time he was probably helped out by Yach supporters trying to keep Peretz from winning).

Him winning is certainly a possibility but for right now I'm sticking with Yachimovich.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So - probably - a semi-desperate 'stop Shelly' move, rather than a cunning factional pincer movement.

[Famous Mortimer]

MKs for Yachimovich:

Avishay Braverman (like Yachimovich herself, an economic left-wing brought into the party by Amir Peretz. He wasn't going to support Herzog but there was a chance he could run himself)

Michal Biran (former assistant to Yachimovich, no surprise)

Stav Shaffir (hard left Yachimovich protege, no surprise)

Moshe Mizrahi (former head of the national police, unsure of where he falls on the political spectrum)

Micky Rosenthal (former reporter, unsure where he falls on the political spectrum)

Nachman Shai (former Kadima member, conservative)

MKs for Herzog:

Eitan Cabel (former party secretary general, protege of Amir Peretz. Basically the same ideologically as Yachimovich but they hate each other because they both want power)

Erel Margalit (right-wing venture capitalist, don't know why he's in this party)

Other notable Herzog supporters:

Ofer Eini (head of the National Workers Federation. He has not officially come out for Herzog but supposedly convinced Margalit not to run in his favor. Ideologically the same as Yachimovich, Peretz, and Cabel but against Yachimovich just because she did ****ty in the last election)

Undecided MKs:

Merav Michaeli (very left-wing but in a cultural, latte drinking way. Yachimovich tried to keep her from winning a seat on the Labor list. She will probably endorse Herzog out of personal animosity even though she's closer to Yachimovich ideologically)

Itzik Shmuli (former head of the National Student Union. One of the leaders of the housing protests along with Stav Shaffir. Left-wing/New Leftish. Brought into the party by Yachimovich but not joined at the hip with her like Shaffir)

MKs declining to endorse:

Hilik Bar (remaining neutral as he is the secretary general of the party)

Binyamin Ben-Eliezer (remaining neutral to look statesman-like because he wants to run for president of Israel next year)

Omer Bar- Lev (basically said that this race was petty stupid bull**** and he didn't want to take part)

[Famous Mortimer]

I can't even imagine what a Herzog chairmanship would look like.

He's trying to paint himself as the peace candidate and Yachimovich as the economics candidate.

While at the same time being backed by labor, which suggests the exact opposite.

[Famous Mortimer]

Yachimovich also received the endorsement of the party's top Arab, former MK and former Minister Raleb Majadele, who had been a Peretz-ite before Peretz switched parties.

[danny]

Merav Michaeli (very left-wing but in a cultural, latte drinking way. Yachimovich tried to keep her from winning a seat on the Labor list. She will probably endorse Herzog out of personal animosity even though she's closer to Yachimovich ideologically)

I really don't see Merav Michaeli supporting Herzog over Yehimovich, supporting women is her shtick, supporting Herzog would look very strange.

[Famous Mortimer]

Itzik Shmuli endorsed Yachimovich. As far as I know, everyone else is still neutral.

Another interesting endorsement, former MK Raleb Majadele, the top placed Arab in the last election, has also endorsed Yachimovich. Previously, he had been a Peretzite.

[Hnv1]

MKs for Yachimovich:

Avishay Braverman (like Yachimovich herself, an economic left-wing brought into the party by Amir Peretz. He wasn't going to support Herzog but there was a chance he could run himself)

Michal Biran (former assistant to Yachimovich, no surprise)

Stav Shaffir (hard left Yachimovich protege, no surprise)

Moshe Mizrahi (former head of the national police, unsure of where he falls on the political spectrum)

Micky Rosenthal (former reporter, unsure where he falls on the political spectrum)

Nachman Shai (former Kadima member, conservative)

MKs for Herzog:

Eitan Cabel (former party secretary general, protege of Amir Peretz. Basically the same ideologically as Yachimovich but they hate each other because they both want power)

Erel Margalit (right-wing venture capitalist, don't know why he's in this party)

Other notable Herzog supporters:

Ofer Eini (head of the National Workers Federation. He has not officially come out for Herzog but supposedly convinced Margalit not to run in his favor. Ideologically the same as Yachimovich, Peretz, and Cabel but against Yachimovich just because she did ****ty in the last election)

Undecided MKs:

Merav Michaeli (very left-wing but in a cultural, latte drinking way. Yachimovich tried to keep her from winning a seat on the Labor list. She will probably endorse Herzog out of personal animosity even though she's closer to Yachimovich ideologically)

Itzik Shmuli (former head of the National Student Union. One of the leaders of the housing protests along with Stav Shaffir. Left-wing/New Leftish. Brought into the party by Yachimovich but not joined at the hip with her like Shaffir)

MKs declining to endorse:

Hilik Bar (remaining neutral as he is the secretary general of the party)

Binyamin Ben-Eliezer (remaining neutral to look statesman-like because he wants to run for president of Israel next year)

Omer Bar- Lev (basically said that this race was petty stupid bull**** and he didn't want to take part)

Moshe Mizrachi is doveish and generally social democratic as well. Rosenthal is very left economically. Both Cabel and Herzog are now anti-Shelly mostly due to her behaviour towards them whilst Margalit really hate her guts (and is actually right wing).
Michaeli will surely go with Shelly, Shmuli (which is neither left wing economically or doveish! but rather an opportunist and an HP) will go with Shelly but he's a snake.
Bar ofc can not endorse anyone but he's a Shelly supporter, Ben Eliezer is Herzog though he will be quite about it as well. Bar Lev is pro-Shelly but won't support anyone.

[Famous Mortimer]

Interested in hearing why Shmuli is a HP. I don't doubt you. I'm just ignorant.

[Hnv1]

Interested in hearing why Shmuli is a HP. I don't doubt you. I'm just ignorant.

For many reason mainly:
- He hadn't gone for Labour ideologically, he went because he thought that's where he could get more power. He's a total kiss ass to all camps trying to portray himself as a moderate while striking bonds with dubious party bosses.
- He ran the Israeli student federation with lots of allegations of corruptness and misconduct.
- I personally know of his role in the 2011 protests, which was mainly searching the media to show himself as the leader while he actually did  nothing, and when we tried to reignite the movement while he had already captured the place he wanted in the political arena he left the main activists to the dogs.

A type of politicians we don't need or want, power craving and suspicious in his connections.

[Famous Mortimer]

Stav Shaffir is still cool though, right?

[Hnv1]

Stav Shaffir is still cool though, right?

Yes, she was one of the honest protesters not the glory hunting type. Not sure of her political prowess but that's a different topic.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A type of politicians we don't need or want, power craving and suspicious in his connections.

He'll go far then.

[Famous Mortimer]

The consensus up until recently was that this is going to be a walk for Yacimovich.

I wonder if the local elections will change that. Labor not winning any seats in Tel Aviv is pretty embarrassing.

Probably not though.

[Famous Mortimer]

Merav Michaeli endorsed Herzog! I out-predicted the native Israelis on that one! Good times!

Herzog was also endorsed by Tel Aviv Mayor Ron Huldai, Rishon Lezion Mayor Dov Tsur and Kfar Saba Mayor Yehuda Ben-Hemo.

On the flip side, Omer Bar-Lev officially came out in support of Shelly.

http://www.jpost.com/Diplomacy-and-Politics/Herzog-promises-to-make-Labor-a-mass-movement-again-330316  

[Famous Mortimer]

Interesting point from the Times of Israel:

"If Yachimovich wins in November, it will mark the first time a Labor leader has been reelected to another consecutive term since 1992. Likud has seen four leaders in the 65 years of Israel’s existence; Labor has seen eight in the past two decades."

http://www.timesofisrael.com/race-for-labor-party-leadership-gets-underway/